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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

kot882001 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 10, 2014 2:03 AM Member since: Sep 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    "Slower death rate" makes me slightly worried...

    by kot882001 Aug 9, 2014 2:42 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 10, 2014 2:03 AM Flag

    Whip, it was wonderful answer, the only problem I'm having with it, that all your numbers you're quoting are from the people trying Rindo as 3+ line of therapy not the first one, as in current trial...

  • Reply to

    "Slower death rate" makes me slightly worried...

    by kot882001 Aug 9, 2014 2:42 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 10, 2014 12:09 AM Flag

    1.I'm sure Tom Davis is aware about enrollment timing and still he him-self mentioned "slower death rate", saying they're investigating it.
    2. 50% of death is about 350- not much difference with 374.
    However, I was under impression that patients randomized 2:1 - (I probably mixed it with CDX-110 trial). In that case reaching 350 death requires basically just most of control group death.
    Still, since the trial conducted as first line on patients with stronger immune system, isn't historically expected OS for control group is higher than a year 1? (From IMUC trial I vague remember that in their control group 60% were still alive after 12 months. I could be wrong...)

  • 1.Since we all expect Rindo to work, then this could only mean that control group living longer, and, while as a person, I don't wish on anyone to die faster, as investor it makes me worried - it will be harder for Rindo to prove statistically significant advantage in OS for Rindo
    2. In CC it was said that 374 events (i.e. death) "expect to occur in H12015". Since the trial has only 233 patients in control arm, we can get these 374 "events" only if most of them die AND about 1/3 of Rindo patients die too. BUT, if rindo really work as in pII, then its patients supposed to survive longer!
    In short, it seems to me that we're not going to have these 374 events in the 1H15, but rather later and this is rather good thing!
    I'd like to hear any opinions or any other possible explanations, if anyone things I'm missing something....

  • Reply to

    cc notes from 9,000 ft altitude

    by long_vrts2 Aug 6, 2014 10:23 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 7, 2014 2:25 AM Flag

    Lv, could it be that events happening at slower rate because placebo arm lives longer?
    And regarding groups 1 & 2C, in my view they did not sound that optimistic...

  • Reply to

    Is Celldex really not a buy Right Now?

    by raysfrom98 Aug 4, 2014 10:58 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 5, 2014 12:51 AM Flag

    Cramer might affect s/p short term. No question. However, at the long run the fundamentals always win! And eventual approval will bring s/p $40-$50. So, the patience pays!

  • I do not expect CLDX to sign new closed end partnership with BP, because usually in this sort of deals, small bio get:
    1. Upfront payment;
    2. All development expenses paid by BP
    3. All marketing paid by BP
    4. ....But...only about 15% royalties on future sales
    This type of deal is good for company with market cap of up to $100-$150m- it allows it to establish name for it -self and make it possible to concentrate on science and not on finance. However, if success achieved - not much in terms of money coming its way. On the other side, BP interested only in potential blockbuster drugs, i.e .with expected sales $3B+ (BTW, this is the reason why PFE went out of deal with CLDX)
    CLDX size company with money from the recent secondary does not need this type of deal. It still might sign some collaboration agreement similar with BMY (and this type of agreement frequently lead to buy-out. For example GSK bought out HGSI when the split was 50-50), but thiss type of partnership does not affect share price much.
    So, for now, everybody unhappy about s/p (including me) need to sit on his hands, patiently waiting for trial results, FDA submissions etc. One must realize that if CLDX would be trading in $20's and expected unloading of shares happens at $45-$50, it still would not make any difference, just moral satisfaction that "we are closer to the target price" but not more than that.
    Of course if you're trading in and out of position it is different, but for long term investors it would be the same.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If the promotions were warranted.

    by weightbayou Aug 2, 2014 4:35 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 3, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Dorris, at $40-$50 CLDX valuation will be 3.6B-4.5B which in my view for company with approved pick sales products in 1.5B area is fair. Theoretically speaking if Varli shows great-great potential (lets say 3b sales), then we can talk about CLDX selling higher than $40-$50. But this is matter of more than 2 years....

  • Reply to

    A little over a Year Ago

    by grey3840 Aug 3, 2014 10:53 AM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 3, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    Mybest, the fact that the price now is much lower than year before is just a temporary lag between fundamentals & the s/p.
    And when grey saying that we're in much better position now it means our fundamental are much better and we're closer to approval than before. And price always follow fundamentals!
    So, this is a matter of time when we see valuation of 4-5B and Id bee much more worried (and probably out of position) if we'd be trading at 30+ but got bad trial results!

  • kot882001 kot882001 Aug 3, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    Gofo, I don't think we're going to get anything really important (for example trial results are important)....Just general update about enrollment, self-promoting rah-rah and how great we are. The real results will come in November, then I expect substantial price increase, may be like last year to $31.

  • Reply to

    If the promotions were warranted.

    by weightbayou Aug 2, 2014 4:35 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 2, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    Mja, mid 40's would be 4B valuation...At this point it would be really good. (And, BWT, PBYI went to 240 at one point- i.e. 300%. Similar move would bring CLDX to $52. If that happens -I'm selling)

  • Reply to

    If the promotions were warranted.

    by weightbayou Aug 2, 2014 4:35 PM
    kot882001 kot882001 Aug 2, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    Weight, first we went up from 24 to 38 in 3 weeks without any reason and then back to 24. From 24 to 13 we went together with the sector. The short term trading in bios is unpredictable and not based upon any fundamentals. this why we might see PBYI like action if we get real good trial results.

  • kot882001 kot882001 Aug 2, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Whip, most bios( icluding CLDX) trading on binary event s(PBYI & ICPT just recent examples). However coming cc is not of them and there is no reason to expect serious price movements as a result of it. IMO, CLDX decided that PR is very important and decided to conduct cc every quater (unlike before). however,
    1. We'll get more substantial binary event when we get trial results update in November;
    2. It is important to keep in mind the perspective- with, eventually, CDX-110 & 011 approved we should move to $50 range - not even counting Varli;
    3. So far trial results were solid, but not spectacular and if this won't change we probably not going to see $50 before approval
    While I my-self not particulary happy with the current price (range $12-$18), but the knowledge that there is a rainbow around the corner and we'll see it probably in 2 years makes me feel better. Also, I'm sure we're going to visit $25 this year again- usually the price of the secondary re-appear in 6-10 months after it.
    4. The fun will start when we get some surprising updates regarding Varli (Rinod & Glemba is "bread & butter" of future price appreciation)- in this case we're going repeat PBYI results....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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