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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

koufax62 8 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Nov 16, 2002
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  • Cash preserving personnel cuts to extend the on hand working capital runway thru P3 data & beyond into CY'16 on it's own looks like SOP, but combined with Nov positive P2 end point achieve plus auction of pre-clinic equipment has the feel of a bare bones reduction to just clinical pipeline/ongoing trials to be packaged to SD or other entity.

    Cut away all the non-essentials in prep for the large acquiring player closing the deal.

    IMO, the stock should have popped to 1.80-2.00 just on the recent data released in Nov + cash (Jan effect delayed reaction?) not including the SD partnership/asset so 300M+ in it's entirety appears well within the realm of reason.

    Any comments?

  • Reply to

    Rating By Fidelity and Conference Call

    by rgeorgekast Oct 30, 2014 11:30 AM
    koufax62 koufax62 Oct 31, 2014 12:35 AM Flag

    FWIW, I accumulated a position on the rising 200 (2.80) after a long absence from MT & Co until the debt overhang/street angst signaled a confirmed gradual dissipation via pay down & refi. Now net debt @79M (ttl debt less cash) and manageable with street focus now shifting primarily to value/potential of business segments & outlook incl patent port.

    A) Re; patents, excellent move monetizing IP via partnership with 3rd party patent enforcement entity eliminating go it alone litigation costs thus mitigating risks. Important Q answered right there for me.

    B) 3Q confirmed low point for gov't segment with return to growth ("traction") forecast for CY 15 via contracts of record (600M & 1B) anticipated funding.

    C) Cisco collaboration: a build out that incorporates all phases of TCS tech & expertise.

    D) Tom Brandt reiterating full year guidance for '14

    E) In-house 911 mandate imminent.

    No personal expectations for a 3Q beat for me. It's all about positioning for what I expect to be a strong CY '15

    Not as up to date as others here, but the valuation (@EV) is attractive and the outlook over the next 6-12 months appears vastly improved.

    I like it and will hold or add if low volume stupidity surfaces over the coming days.

    Koufax.

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't short this stock

    by invndonnie Sep 24, 2014 5:06 PM
    koufax62 koufax62 Oct 1, 2014 1:00 AM Flag

    Jonnycat,

    The substance of what you post is ignored. Your posts are occasionally read as a humorous diversion!

    There is a difference!

    First off, the stock has retraced off the (2yr highs/,not looking at a chart this moment) "predictably" due to the soon to end Crinone licensing renewal period that extended to EOY '14. That uncertainty is now OVER!

    Next, the balance sheet concerns have just recently been laid to rest by the "non-core asset sale" for 2.1M in addition to 3Q Crinone shipment ramp. The street knows this and the balance sheet looks solid upon the 3Q call at around 15M.

    The bottom line is that FC has done an excellent job of transitioning the company into a viable, growing firm with loads of potential with minimal risks.

    I'll be the first one to admit some skepticism in terms of what exactly could be acquired for around 20M ie; a P1 pig in a poke bio vs A retooled, expanded capability,, Molecular generating cash and projected to grow at a conservative 15% annually.

    The 505(b) (2) pursuits are free shots at hyper growth backed by the reliability of the revenue generated by the service side of the business & Crinone.

    The stock price IS going to soon reflect the positive progress, it's inevitable.

    The above is why short interest has NO interest in betting against this company.

    Nothing at all unexpected to this point.

    Koufax.

  • Reply to

    Rumor

    by sfloridaguy Sep 30, 2014 9:27 PM
    koufax62 koufax62 Sep 30, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    Floridaguy,

    As per the most recent 10Q (Q ending 6/31/14), total liabilities stood at 281M vs 324M cash/investments.

    As far as the Actavis legal battle, all expenses incurred are reflected on the balance sheet end of each Q and is incorporated in total operating expense for the reported period.

    Explain how you come up with an EV of 870M if you please!

    Additionally, No off balance sheet transactions per the most recent Q filing.

    All ears,,,,,,,errrr,,,,,,eyes!

    Koufax

  • Reply to

    One question?

    by whogo70 Sep 26, 2014 2:30 PM
    koufax62 koufax62 Sep 28, 2014 8:23 PM Flag

    OK Alex Trebek, I'll go with "pipeline positive" for $1000.

    Actually it was the FDA psoriasis indication bonus followed by the ensuing Leo agreement. Prior to that event I'd say it was the Pfizer deal hitting the wires just shy of 3 years ago back in Dec '11.

    Ironically the Pfizer news became public when short interest was having a field day with the stock price smashing it down into the 1.60 area at one point b/4 closing the wk at about 1.80. What followed in the weeks and months ahead wasn't very pleasant for those on the short side to put it mildly.

    So here we are again and what will play out in the near term?

    A/B rated Epi approval?

    Another Pfizer type collaboration?

    An unexpected surge in Otrexup scripts?

    All of the above?

    Deja Vu all over again?

    Koufax

  • Reply to

    I would expect a Price of $6 buyout!

    by jagan1961 Aug 28, 2014 12:55 PM
    koufax62 koufax62 Sep 24, 2014 9:04 PM Flag

    A more realistic focus should be on the updated "timeline" for METIV-HCC trial enrollment completion somewhere in the area of end 4Q / Q1 for an actual PR.

    The street has discounted the stock to roughly 10M - 12M above projected EOY cash, which obviously values the stock in the very low risk / very high return category based on 9/24 closing price.

    B/Os do happen but the appeal at this moment is low valuation, NOT any possible take out scenario hopes.

    Koufax

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't short this stock

    by invndonnie Sep 24, 2014 5:06 PM
    koufax62 koufax62 Sep 24, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    The under statement of the century Donnie! Short interest is and has been invisible (sub 100k) throughout the Crinn licensing renewal period which IMO was a more valid reason than the typical industry CFO changing of the guard in addition to the incoming has excellent qualifications which is possibly a net gain for CBRX.

    No short interest for good reason apparently. The company's prospects (near &long term) simply looks fantastic. Molecular is a great business that is poised for consistent growth (great acquisition @16M), Crinnone back on track for CY'15 with double digit growth, and the building of a 505(b)(2) product pipeline (the hyper growth wild card) funded via free cash generation!

    It doesn't get much better than CBRX at current valuation for low risk / high return micro cap investing Donnie.

    The MB lounge lizards are just regular fixtures indulging in their daily bash Condella fix!

    They are entitled to post as they wish even if they are ignored!

    Koufax.

  • In a note to clients by Wells Fargo's Matt Andrews.

    Obviously bullish and without doubt based on Stendra news, but wouldn't mind reading the full text if anyone on this MB happens to have had access to it.

    Anyone?

    A brief summary will do just fine!

    Koufax.

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