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iShares China Large-Cap Message Board

koufax62 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 7:35 PM Member since: Nov 16, 2002
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  • koufax62 by koufax62 Dec 17, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    Cash preserving personnel cuts to extend the on hand working capital runway thru P3 data & beyond into CY'16 on it's own looks like SOP, but combined with Nov positive P2 end point achieve plus auction of pre-clinic equipment has the feel of a bare bones reduction to just clinical pipeline/ongoing trials to be packaged to SD or other entity.

    Cut away all the non-essentials in prep for the large acquiring player closing the deal.

    IMO, the stock should have popped to 1.80-2.00 just on the recent data released in Nov + cash (Jan effect delayed reaction?) not including the SD partnership/asset so 300M+ in it's entirety appears well within the realm of reason.

    Any comments?

  • Reply to

    Rating By Fidelity and Conference Call

    by rgeorgekast Oct 30, 2014 11:30 AM
    koufax62 koufax62 Oct 31, 2014 12:35 AM Flag

    FWIW, I accumulated a position on the rising 200 (2.80) after a long absence from MT & Co until the debt overhang/street angst signaled a confirmed gradual dissipation via pay down & refi. Now net debt @79M (ttl debt less cash) and manageable with street focus now shifting primarily to value/potential of business segments & outlook incl patent port.

    A) Re; patents, excellent move monetizing IP via partnership with 3rd party patent enforcement entity eliminating go it alone litigation costs thus mitigating risks. Important Q answered right there for me.

    B) 3Q confirmed low point for gov't segment with return to growth ("traction") forecast for CY 15 via contracts of record (600M & 1B) anticipated funding.

    C) Cisco collaboration: a build out that incorporates all phases of TCS tech & expertise.

    D) Tom Brandt reiterating full year guidance for '14

    E) In-house 911 mandate imminent.

    No personal expectations for a 3Q beat for me. It's all about positioning for what I expect to be a strong CY '15

    Not as up to date as others here, but the valuation (@EV) is attractive and the outlook over the next 6-12 months appears vastly improved.

    I like it and will hold or add if low volume stupidity surfaces over the coming days.


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