See what I mean!
No chance AT ALL unless retail guesses just right with limit orders in close proximity to wash out bottoms.
The S.I. cartel didn't put out the "ok to buy now sign" you would expect from such a nice group of fellas!
Man,,,,,,,,,,,that was fast!
I'm not even going to ask because magically, everybody and their relatives bought tons sub 2.10! Yeah right!
continuation of downtrend should have surprised "no one"! 300M MC looked like a given after he was no doubt prodded TO LEAVE while he still had a choice.
Sub 300M MC, it starts to get interesting but still tricky IMO.
Medac now factored (2H launch) break even still appears on schedule for ATRS EOY with a 50% hair cut to est peak for O you get something like from 200M to 100M for RA combined with about 60M to 30M for psoriasis for 130M reduced peak estimate factoring in Medac.
2 X 130M = 260M + cash is roughly 320M so HOW does one want to value the stock with Pfizer/QST/Teva?
Where ever the stock settles into a convincing base, I hope it stays there long enough to re-accumulate shares .That would be the best scenario for buyers in waiting vs quick reversal off oversold.
Let us hope for an opportunity.
PS 1.80-2.00 looks like a long shot to me but at this point, who knows!
I agree more with rph Affirmed. IMO the settlement angle has come and gone because Medac would only agree to a compromised delay IF they thought the court would issue a restraining order prohibiting approval and conversely, Medac has no chance of making any legal headway to stop Antares from marketing Otrexup based on dosing claims of exclusivity so Antares has no interest in considering any Medac settlement proposals looking ahead.
The Medac countersuit was more of a tit for tat response to Antares' first strike infringement filing Smith had it right all along.
IMO, it's back to weekly script #s , Put simply, the time it takes to reach say 500 Nx weekly should be duplicated "in half the time it takes to achieve 500 Nx from a dead start". So Feb through maybe Jul/Aug is around 6-7months which gets you to 1000 Nx break even is sometime in Nov. roughly when Medac gets started.
from a stock moving standpoint on FDA/Medac news undoubtedly because the street/S.I./L already baked the "expected ie;L.Smith" into the cake and in rapid fashion from the highs.
At this point, I'd have preferred more panic to reload the now washed stop out shares I'm contemplating, at least partially, reacquiring heading into Pfizer news and QST data (nearer term) followed by probable partnership in roughly 15 months.
Realistically, peak O estimates might be now more in the 150M annual range incl Leo which still isn't too bad added on to Pfizer & QST hence selling muted on the news at current valuation is my best guess.
The BOD is also "excited" about having a CEO in place that will adhere more strictly to the recommendations of it's members RPH.
Certainly Hobbs appears qualified to lead the company but I see his appointment more as a front man in a "leadership by committee" role and that is a good thing considering the abundance of wisdom and experience that reside in the boardroom and front lines of a business this size.
The stock has really gotten beaten down due to uncertainties but also IMO already or very close to pricing in a late '14 Medac launch "or" primed for a stunning rally if the current litigation delays the Medac entry an additional 30 months which is still a distinct possibility with or without Paul Wotton and thats what it's really all about at this juncture.
Surprising and somewhat unexpected from my viewpoint.
Somewhat unexpected because roughly 6 months ago I suggested that an entity might approach him in an attempt to pry him away from Antares, but this observation was posted "before" the now infamous 4Q call that was IMO a genuine low light of Dr. Wotton's tenure. All he had to say was (for example) "yes we are and have been well aware of Medac and their efforts to enter the self injectable MTX space with Otrexup and we/ATRS are extremely confident in the strength of our patents that reinforce the value of our asset exemplified by our rapid response infringement suit ", That IS instead of the "never heard of them" twisting in the wind for ATRS shareholders.
The above is #1. Next is that I suspect that the BOD is or was highly peeved by the decision to in house market Otrexup vs partnership ala Leo which was an "excellent" agreement for ATRS and would has put the company in fabulous position financially moving forward towards QS T. Think about it, not to mention any risks negated albeit a route (RA partnership) potentially less lucrative then the present path.
In conclusion, I think the BOD and major holders were on his case big time exacerbated by the stock performance hence the the mad scramble to land on his feet "anywhere" before he was, let us say, asked to turn in his keys.
No one is perfect, but much early on good was undone over the last couple Qs by PW.
Possible addition by subtraction going forward IMO with leadership that is responsive and more willing (flexible" to consider the consensus of opinion.