Whogo is correct in his statement that the norm for new products is typically a TIER III designation.
However, the co-pay differential for a preferred "generic" will be relatively minimal comparing TIER III to T II and thus not a deterrent of meaningful significance from a total scripts/sales standpoint. In addition, the T3 designation was already anticipated by management going in with an expected gradual managed care transition to TIER II aided by the efforts of *Quintiles (specific area of high competence) along with the seasoned managed care expert (his name escapes me this moment) on the Antares payroll.
* I've already posted this on several occasions so once more isn't going to hurt. "The Quintiles arrangement was/is a genius business decision" beyond the 25 man "dedicated" (O exclusive) staff the above mentioned is yet another reason why, not to mention the "cost effective/high level of productivity" characteristic gained by entering into such an agreement. Quintiles, in essence, is doing a significant amount of the necessary 'heavy lifting" that will establish a strong market share foothold for Otrexup & Antares at a price that crushes down expense risks to a future point when the company's recurring revenue base will have expanded to a level that supports further "in-house" sales/support independence.
Lastly, I do NOT agree that the cost structure of the expensive biologic alternatives can or will be modified by the large pharma manufacturers to an extent that would/could negatively impact Otrexup scripts.The annual cost difference between the biologics and Otrexup/physician administered intramuscular injection is just too wide to bridge and may compromise the biologic price structure throughout all other approved indications ie; O just cuts into a segment of the total market that the R/A biologic alternatives generate total revenue from.
Personally, I've gone from "confident" on the approval back in Oct to "very bullish" now as I look more closely.
I posted TWO YEARS AGO that I could care less about Copaxone!
All that matters is the Teva pipeline in it's current form because it is more than formidable enough AS IS especially when combined with what we are doing on our own plus Pfizer!
A little early in the AM for a Safe Harbor snooze fest don't you think Loko?
Same old Whogo! Your trademark misinterpretation of anything that doesn't fit into what works for you!
"I"M NOT BASING MY POST ON A PURELY TECHNICAL POINT OF VIEW"!
I never do! What I said was that the Antares pipeline (growth drivers) have finally caught up to the higher valuations the street had assigned the stock 17 months ago! Hence it is logical to assume another move back to those higher levels.
It's very, very simple Whogo! I thought that valuations were "a bit stretched" 17 months ago and at this point, I think the stock is significantly undervalued.
17 months ago I was pruning BACK my total position, Now, I a'm expanding it!
Calling the 5.30 retest YES, that part is based on guessing where the stock might encounter heavy resistance.
The variables are all accounted for including.Market gyrations and IMO at current discount considering NOTHING event driven out there over the full CY '14 that can hurt the stock, the trend is up strong!
That's right! You all can read right?
I would like nothing more than see every last poster on this MB sell and permanently MOVE ON!
Do it tomorrow,,,,,,,,,,,,PALEEEASE!
No? You like posting on this MB because it's your idea of fun time recreation right!
Pathetic! Just pathetic!
IMO, THIS IS IT in terms of positioning for another longer term uptrend for the shares because fundamentally, the company and it's growth drivers are no longer years out.
IMHO, don't screw this opportunity up by outsmarting yourself over a possible 15 to 20 cent advantage but that's only my personal viewpoint!
DEFINED! *(6-9 mos)
The shills on this MB (both agenda driven negative as well as the 10.00 around the corner perma bulls) are all COLLECTIVELY blowing smoke so thick that legitimate newer retail interest in the company may have trouble cutting through with a machete.
I'll clear away the BS right here and now!
The straight deal is simply as follows;
The stock is currently in a basing pattern that may very soon break back above the 200 DMA My "posted prediction" was for roughly a 3 week period below but I also acknowledge that time below the 200 could be of longer duration on the order of say 4 - 5 weeks which should make little difference provided you are positioned properly whenever this event unfolds.
Why is positioning so important at this juncture? Look again at the 2 year chart and take note of the multi-year closing high @5.30. That close was 17 months ago and at the time, if accurately predicted/assessed, the pipeline (in terms of est time to clear all regulatory hurdles then commercialization) was a "fundamental gap" that had to be filled before the higher valuation of that time would/could be easily justified, sustainable, and in position to exceed. IMO pipeline progress over the last 17 months NOW DOES more legitimately justify a 600M + valuation hence deep discount to current PPS.
In any event, the most likely scenario over the next 7 months is a retest of the highs put in which I think will happen in close proximity to the 2 year anniversary of that event. You calculate the % gain based on today's close. 3.75 - 5.15 / 5.30 July '14 to complete the 2 year round trip!
The above is rational and highly logical. a) no balance sheet concerns b) modest initial O launch expectations c) good 4Q in the offing d) QS T data Jan/Feb e) Teva filings clearing FDA and most importantly, insty/fund share buying splurge a full 6 months before the start of CY '15 and the real deal mega jump in top line growth.
Greg, settle down because you're becoming totally unglued at this point.
What I'm suggesting is that the financials are trying to tell us something and it isn't party time confetti raining down while sipping champagne for the holders of HLF shares. Suspicious to say the least and what one might expect to see when a concerted effort is underway to put an extra gloss on earnings. The share buy back is yet another issue!
The share buy back suggestion (naturally instigated by the Icahn crew) is a strategy designed to help (in the short term) Icahn and friends NOT as a move to improve the company fundamentally.
Ask yourself this; hasn't the time passed when buying back shares at say 35-40 MIGHT have made a little more sense?
"IF" there are no more Icahn allies out there willing to buy at current levels with the clout to break the stock above multi-year resistance @73 what else would they recommend for HLF management to do? Right! Help them out and be the buyers of their own shares!
Greg, you are posting as if you are praying to be right on this instead of just relying on fact based conviction!
As for me, I have no axe to grind here at all! Just curious what people are thinking!
The only thing that is OBVIOUS to me is that #1 you have no grasp of corporate accounting, 2) your career as a mind reader is a complete failure because I'm not short the stock only asking legitimate questions & 3) buying back stock as opposed to cleaning up the balance sheet (even with cheap money) is a perilous endeavor for a company with a BV of 4.50.
Any bumps in the road "at all" (legal or otherwise) HLF/ management /shareholders will find themselves in a world of hurt. and I guarantee you Icahn will be long gone before retail even knows what hit them.
Hey, I'm open minded and willing to listen when I read something with substance!
Anybody on this MB qualified to answer why net receivables & inventory levels have remained virtually unchanged Q/Q over the last year while accounts payable/ST debt/ Other (ttl current liabilities) have steadily risen to the tune of 151M in 12 months? Not to mention LT debt "doubling" from 431M to 875M?
Strictly from a novice viewpoint, the cash build should "urgently" be used to pay down the above listed liabilities "instead" of a kamakaze share buy back designed to (on the surface) pressure Ackman.
This is looking more and more like a personal vendetta rather than advising HLF what IS in the best interest LT for the company and it's shareholders.
Icahn & cronies appear to be cooking up something with a limited shelf life that is sooner or later smell far beyond over ripe!
Congratulations WSP, your comprehension of exactly what is going on here just got downgraded to imbecilic rambling!
Short interest "has nowhere to go" at this point without triggering ALL KINDS of technical mayhem dangerous to their financial health. The nickel and dime traders will simply disappear after a while and judging from the volume, the meaningless "dead wood" are all but swept aside already. That leaves only the LT holders (that aren't going anywhere) and the "trend traders" that are busy putting the finishing touches on their positions sub 200 dma to ride the now forming uptrend back up to the "no news required" 4.50-4.60 area of still conservative fair value equilibrium.
In case you forgot, I was the only MB poster that sensed minimal short covering based in part to low volume selling (check chart vol. at & sub 200 on way down). Not much opportunity to unwind much when shakeout victims were slowly vanishing the deeper into the mid 3s the stock was compressed.
Not my problem WS but somebody (S,I,hedgies & Orbi mngrs) are going to have some 'SPLAININ to do as each overhead resistance point crumbles in the wake of buyers fearing getting left behind contending with an ever tightening supply of shares.
I'll pass on the "late to the game" trades you listed WS.
I prefer loading up at bullet proof prices, market correction or no, right where I a'm!
Pritske, anything at all sub 3.80 looks appealing to me so I set up a line of buy limits within a .10 range with 2 getting filled.
Death cross? Not paying much attention to it primarily based on very attractive valuation with solid cash position. I felt very comfortable with our balance sheet "B/4 the licensing announcement", so the feeling now goes double cutting into what was already a very manageable/modest burn estimate of cash for '14. Also, look what happened the last time the chart registered a death cross in addition to the fact that the 50 might not even cross below the 200 and if it does, the dip will be very shallow.
I actually fully expected today's retrace because I've seen it before here several times after the stock rallied off an overshoot low.
Same 'ole, same 'ole! Once back above the 200 most of us will be wondering why we didn't add a few more when we had the chance.
The technical simplification that is Antares.
Buy aggressively below the 200 DMA (not a common condition) then evaluate potential location of overhead resistance point that may require substantial news to break through. MHO is that 4.15 is TOAST in the near term and that the 4.50-4.60 area will prove to be "the near term tough nut to crack" baring an additional positive event and that is increasingly a possibility with the passage of time measured in months.
PPS history has confirmed this and nothing fundamentally has changed other than positives to alter the LT pattern!
FWIW, looking to add more on low volume weakness if my price materializes.
That's about it Wallstreet! You asked for technical words of wisdom and you got it!
highjacking of shares and warrants at give away prices is FINI ! OVER ! KAPUT ! DONE FOR !
Sure, the street was holding the hammer on the last issuance because we had to have the cash and the manufactured push down into the 1.20s was just the culmination of the robbery process.
Whole new ballgame now however! 10Q "the company has sufficient cash through CY '13 and into CY '14" or in other words, we'll consider our options after we release trial data followed by FDA filing.
Double the stock price and then MAYBE we'll talk and don't even think about any warrants to sweeten the deal because Lundy will be holding the hammer the next go around.
Keep trying to close the gap and I keep accumulating all the expendable trading shares (around my APPY LT core position) disposed on profit taking!
You feel lucky punk? Go ahead, make my day!
Here is a perfect example of how MB NOISE drowns out the relevant in the heat of adversity.
Please read my post about 3 entries down on this thread beginning with "I'm personally not looking" in response to posters that tried to convince the confused masses that no near term catalysts (beyond IMHO a sizable discount to fair value) would surface anytime soon.
FWIW, this spot on call a full week ago confirmed today got all the attention of 1 thumb UP & 1 Down!
Guys, I posted this "immediately" after the CC because Dr. Wotton TOLD US Antares was in the process of monetizing Otrexup for the psoriasis indication.
The MB pushed aside my comment as meaningless drivel because of the now confirmed manufactured stock retreat that seems to ALWAYS dictate, to the easily misled, what a company's value is really worth.
Great news, but I'm not at all surprised due to Dr.Wotton's helpful hints tossed out to any shareholder interested in listening carefully to what he had to say!
Just the usual lineup of standard issue buy advertisements. Nothing new really.
The inescapable truth is that BioMarin wouldn't have literally given away US rights "to anyone" if Co. reps and perceptions within the pharma community were at all or the slightest optimistic view of the commercial potential of Firdapse.
BMRN management built that company from the bottom up by not making silly decisions.
IMHO on the surface it looks like BMRN couldn't sell the asset so they did the next best thing by "installing it" into a shell company that had nothing to lose by assuming responsibility mid P3 and in the process also becoming a legal "buffer" between the ambulance chasers and BioMarin.
Coming off the CPP-109 Cocaine addiction deterrent trial failure, CPRX didn't have many remaining options left sitting well south of a buck and a date with delisting.
Again though, JMHO!
I'll remain in the stock to a varying extent for the foreseeable future, but no more posts for a while!
Sorry about the buy rec @the 200 & slightly below (3.90-396) where I also bought shares, but the overshoot (IMO an overshoot of and overshoot to RTQ) on inspiring company progress was a curve ball that fooled me!
Good job by short interest and I hope they were able to cash in.
Better days ARE ahead though for Antares bulls. All indications are quite positive.
PS, I feel somewhat vindicated by Larry Smith's fair value assessment which parallels my own @600M asset value + cash (albeit his model assigns a higher range) which is comforting because I think he has a very solid understanding of the company.
Best of luck to all!
David, either direction at this point "is fine with me" I'm not a seller at all "under the 200 dma", only a buyer so the only remaining decisions are in determining how far below the 200 can I possibly expect to accumulate the shares and for how long will the opportunity realistically last!
Not a share flipper, so I'm on your side none the less!
Another question for the bottom picking buyers that are still out in the cold is when does the panic buying kick in? My suggestion to the bottom pickers right about now is to start praying for some kind of retrace Mon or you'll soon be chasing the ask.
I'll wager with anyone that S.I. might have only covered 2M-3M shares AT MOST and that is a good thing because when the anticipated good news events start hitting the wires, up moves will be juiced.
Most of the civilized world knows where they're sitting en masse even if your among the group that can't actually see them!
The question is, has or will the strategy change for the hopefuls sitting nearer the 52wk lows to a bid move up closer to meet a double bottom off yesterdays close? Whatever hasn't been covered on the short side (I suspect quite a bit based on moderate volume throughout sell off) appears to be vulnerable especially with sell volume all but completely evaporated.
FWIW, another shot at the 3.50s and I'm putting the "HAMMER DOWN" buying anything I can get to only I don't like my chances at this point.