Your enthusiasm makes sense from a valuation standpoint 67, but value has become an extinct concept around here.
It's almost comical if thats possible amidst all the pain.
If one wishes to focus on Otrexup exclusively then RTQ breaks down like this;
431,6M MC minus cash we'll round out to about 363M asset valuation
subtracting again ttm sales of 20M at a below industry norm of 2 X sales we have 323M + ttm sales
lastly, 323M divided by Otrexup peak estimates of 200M R/A & we'll say 60M psoriasis or 260M
1.25 X Otrexup est. peak = 323M plus 2 X ttm sales plus cash =RTQ
All other assets valued at ZERO, with ttl Otrexup valued @1 1/4 X peak which is also an extremely reserved/conservative valuation assignment particularly into the early stages of what appears to be a launch ramping according to or even slightly ahead of plan.
Sanity is being tossed out the window and value out of style apparently USMA, but usually not for long though!
Put another way Affirmed;
1/2 X peak Otrexup incl psoriasis of 270M = 135M
1/2 X peak QS T of 300M = 150M
1 X Pfizer = 60M + (could be much more?) but 60M for now
and a paltry 2 X ttm sales of 20M = 40M
the above ttl 385M + 69M cash = 454M valuing QS M + entire in-house platform @ ZERO in addition to valuing the entire Teva pipeline (apps submitted) also @ ZERO?
Cheap, but @ 1/2 est. peak values + ZERO on everything else?
This stock could be as much as 300M under reasonable FV here and still wouldn't be outlandishly valued relative to other small cap bios.
to old highs!
Jul '12 600M MC less 30M cash (570 EV) vs 437M MC less 69M (368M EV)
on assets FAR more valuable and stronger than compared to almost 2 years ago!
The chart is "UPSIDE DOWN". The new highs should be now based on value and current PPS should have been back in Jul '12!
ie; 1 x QS T peak @300M + 1 X Pfizer = 360M-370M alone!
Baffling how undervalued the stock is at these levels!
At any rate O scripts are poised to surge to another level above very good to blast off with United Health joining in the effort in a matter of days.
Just facts without fanfare!
The big difference that I see Quest is that the assets (in-house in particular) are vastly higher quality and lower risk compared to the more common small bio.
I'm sure a big reason for the "extreme" under valuation of Antares assets is more connected to technical indicators because the PPS has totally disconnected from anything even close to fair value for the shares. These quality assets should have supported the stock a lot higher than todays close so I would think that compressed as the PPS is, ATRS will outperform in the near term no matter market conditions.
Look back almost 2 years ago. The stock peaked at 600M MC and the company had 30M in cash (570M EV) at the time and was still 2 years away from advancing the in-house pipeline to where we are now which is Otrexup in positive launch mode, QS T data to date very positive, with 69.1M in cash on the balance sheet at the close of Q with another 5M milestone to mitigate 1Q expenses which will be the starting gate Q for Otrexup sales that increase dramatically each Q there after.
Now I ask you, do you like the stock better here or 2 years ago at a 600M MC!
RTQ about 390M.
Almost FV of QST & Pfizer ALONE, but definitely if include ttm sales valued at 2 X.
Unless anybody thinks P3 QST data isn't going to be anything but excellent and based on what we already know, the data will be excellent.
Small wonder strong money flow coming back into the stock, the stock is virtually 200M under bare bones FV.
The players are holding down the PPS for as long as possible while accumulating all they can and I can't say I blame them. The stock is a steal here for those with the cash to buy it heading into an Otrexup sales surge in May.
Nice job by those capitalizing on the opportunity I personally never saw coming.
This major goes Otrexup on-line in April.
For some reason I thought the 6 month 505(b) hold put ran into the summer, but I stand corrected. Must be 6 months after approval apparently.
IMHO big lift off starts for scripts end Apr / May and calculating CY'14 scripts based on present increases will far under project launch potential into YE.
Davidscott, you are referring to strictly accounting procedure regarding how the milestone payments are recognized. This has nothing to do with the "all important" cash on the balance sheet at end of Q.
What this means is that whether the 10M is spread out over 3Qs or 3 years from a revenue recognition standpoint is virtually immaterial other than what would be more glossed up looking numbers come the earnings call if recorded in full the Q received but the money is in the bank and will be reflected on the balance sheet.
All that matters is cash at end of Q and building Otrexup sales momentum.
Affirmed, in answer to your Q
In a perfect world, the BOD has a fiduciary obligation to present shareholders with any B/O offer/offers that "determined by the BOD" is sufficient to the extent of warranting disclosure. Low ball feeler bids never get beyond the discussion stage inside corporate.
A potential suitor has several choices.upon early discussion turn down A) walk away while considering any counter proposal that if accepted by board majority AS LEGIT will be put in writing and then presented to shareholders with the BODs recommendation attached either pro or con. B) a major holder sway campaign cannot circumvent the poison pill but might be in a position to pressure the BOD into at least disclosing the details of an offer put forth.
So much of the above hinges on the company's desire to even consider a sale of itself and at that point we won't or may not be expecting it.
This isn't exact Affirmed, but it should give you a general idea!
Nice post TD.
FWIW, I tend to ruffle a few feathers with not all together clear meaning sometimes. For example, when I say that the stock is very buyable at minimum 1.00 per share above RTQ, I mean that valuation metrics indicate that there is upside potential for a buyer at that level. That means that a Teva offer at 6.00 we'll say IMO is a very small premium, to NO premium over reasonable FV. "You cannot use a temporary PPS anomaly as a gauge to predict the value of Antares to Teva.
Also, how about the "11" new pipeline candidates Paul just eluded to. Teva would buy the company and immediately put them ALL in the clinic. Big ROI for Teva in 3+ years at a price higher than 7 or more!
Joe, poison pills are designed to ward off hostile attempts, it doesn't prohibit the BOD from considering ANY offer!
You fellas sense Teva might be making some proposals?
It's possible based on the classic signs we've been witnessing, but difficult to nail down though.
Again, according to my very conservative valuation estimates coupled with the solid financial state that the company is in (cash on hand + disposable for additional cash non-core assets ie; Elestrin, Gelnique) the stock is easily 1.00 a share under what is still a very "buyable" price based on asset values.
Based on the above, I would say that Antares is NOT vulnerable to accepting an inadequate offer so if true, the ball is in Teva's court to put a legit number on the table.
Whogo, support @3.55, 3.51, 3.48, key firstname.lastname@example.org the 52 week lows.
No predictions, but like I posted
@the 52 week low 3.40 = 442M MC
I'm projecting cash balance ending Q1 approx 67M factoring in 5M milestone received
QS T 1 X peak @300M
marketed products 2 X ttm sales of 20M 40M
400M + 67M = 467M MC
The above means;
zero value assigned Otrexup R/A & psoriasis
zero value assigned QS M & entire in-house platform + IP
zero value assigned Teva pipeline incl Epinephrine, sumatriptan, Pens 1 & 2
Cash balances on hand is not a factor at all based on current EPS estimates into CY '15 and profitability.
"At some point Whogo, value matters"!
FWIW the trading I'm referring to was in the mid 3.50's back in Oct I think it was!
All I can say at this point is that I badly miscalculated the severity of this sell off and if it's any consolation, I'm getting hammered along with everybody else that likes this company, perhaps at times more than we should!
What can anybody say at this point?
The stock is valued at about 1 X peak QST (300M) plus Pfizer (50-60M?) plus cash with zero value for Otrexup, zero value for QSM + pipeline, zero value for Teva.
I have NO idea how this stock can be this cheap even in light of partnered product weak sales that nobody cares about anyway or own the stock because of and that is the truth! Who cares if Gelnique Q sales were 1-2M higher!
What else can I say but that I'm baffled! Sorry!
all over again!
Didn't we see this movie before?
Even the trading near the bottom looks similar I'm seeing the same blocks of shares moving back and forth in between 100 share ping pong balls.
Wouldn't surprise me if only 1/2 the volume we're looking at is legit!
Now I have some time so first off,,,,,,,,,#$%$ Halo! You DBAG! Buying Halo @17.50 wasn't any better so #$%$!
Prince, as far as I'm concerned, the Teva side of the business has advanced too slowly for my liking. Teva, IMO, is not in any hurry to do anything that would boost the value of ATRS at this point, especially if they have any designs on buying the company and they very well might be but no one really knows for sure. It's only logical.
The above is why controlling what to commercially pursue when ATRS management decides to and NOT have to sit on our hands waiting on Teva has changed everything. Otrexup is looking better by the week and the in-house pipeline is advancing and expanding rapidly, and most importantly, the in-house assets have value to "additional" suitors beyond Teva and that is also key.
Proof of Otrexup success path (sales trajectory) is only now within weeks or months NOT when Teva decides to file the pen products that have been out of the clinic for 6 months now!
Legitimate question Prince and here is a legitimate response.
Paul Wotton & Antares NOW controls the primary revenue drivers (present & future) minimizing Teva importance to additional streams of future top/bottom line growth instead of the central focus.
When PW announced the MTX initiative, he outlined profit potential as well as timelines to market. That was 3+ years ago and he is DEAD ON correct in delivering what he promised thus far. With further expansion of in-house pipeline, valuation models become infinitely more reliable when, for example, a Teva is marginalized within the total equation!
Here is the breakdown;
1 X peak R/A 200M + 70M Leo 270M - 25% Medac risk premium = 200M (based on facts 5-10% RP more in line)
QS T 1/2 X peak est 300M = 150M
QS M + entire platform + IP 150M
Teva total pipeline 100M
partnered marketed 40M
estimated cash EOY '14 approx 50M
740M total assets @low end of valuation scale
Tailwinds include Waxman health care cost savings rhetoric (very ATRS friendly) and injectable MTX scarcity
Very inexpensive stock by any reasonable valuation measure.
Your post is a fair criticism Halo. Based on what I know, and it's far more than the average retail ATRS investor, I really didn't think that the stock would retrace to these levels and I posted as such.
The difference between myself and the familiar pumpers & bashers is that I never advertise for anyone to buy or sell. I prefer to post what I know and what I actually think and the rest is up to the individual.
The only difference in my opinion now regarding Antares is that I'm much more certain of a strong Otrexup ramp than I was 6 months ago because I have more information now. The fact that the shares are discounted to the extent that they are doesn't change my view other than the shares being under valued and some will capitalize on it.
Uman Pharmaceuticals of Canada quest.
Antares, as part of the original agreement, granted Canadian "O" exclusivity to Uman in exchange for product. (I'm about to revisit what can be found re;the agreement)
What has turned out to be most impressive is that based on what seems to be transpiring on the injectable MTX front (shortages) Paul Wotton "could not have made a better decision" than going with Uman. Crystal ball caliber good decision. Shortly after the agreement was finalized, CFR SA pumped 27M into Uman to upgrade the facility! Financially solid and blessed by the FDA!
Genius move similar to the LEO agreement I'd say.
I suppose that is why Dr. Wotton makes the big bucks though. He deserves it!