Technical history (buys below the 200dma) along with valuation and pivotal growth driver "now in motion" going for you as I type this post Shadow, so at the very least based on the above tangibles, holding is a must and adding a "good" percentage play @4 + or - if one has the liquidity, experience, and conviction to do so when under duress. Many can't or aren't qualified to make sound judgement when overly emotional.
I'm not a technician but the key is this; (2.72 5/31/12) (3.36 2/25/13) (3.64 11/7/13) (4.02? 3/13/14) and roughly represents a 50% increase in shareholder value over the that 22 month span within this slow/methodical corporate transition period to in-house product developer.
I would say now that the intermediate bottoms on the 2 year chart turned out to be an accurate appraisal of company progress towards self sustaining profitability and the current 200 dma is a true proxy for neutral sentiment.
Fundamentally you have 4 key ingredients in your favor, a) adequate balance sheet b) low quarterly expenditures c) a new product endorsed by the insurers & practitioners that are the conduits to end users with limited favorable options d) professional sales & marketing d) large market opportunity.
Ummmmmm? An inflection point? Consider the 3 new in-house candidates recently selected. Then consider Antares generating in the not so distant future 10M to 20M in quarterly free cash. I would expect that the company would be running all 3 trials "simultaneously". Then increase the cash flow again and then what? 6 trials running with the first 3 planned for FDA filing say a year, a year and a half ahead of the last selected to go into the clinic.
It's exponential Shadow.
I DON"T have a crystal ball but the possibilities that open up for Antares when and if Otrexup is as successful as both management and shareholders of conviction anticipate the ramifications are clearly much more far reaching than the value the street puts on cash.
No harm, no foul Tappy! Just minor differences of opinion.
I personally disagree (moderately) with Ryman's valuation assessment for example. I a'm convinced that the stock is currently under valued conservatively by 25%-35% without any new info.. On the other hand, Ryman's Medac posts are IMO on target in that any Medac concerns should be far off along the order of a 2 1/2 year stay while Antares sells product in the interim. Prior art would wipe out Medac's 231 patent in the end, but the wrangling is just in the early stages an presents NO imminent threat to the Otrexup launch effort in the near and mid term.
I think most on this MB agree and disagree with varying thoughts and conclusions but that works better than everyone agreeing in tandem. I always even took time to read Lokos comments when he's wasn't on the war path over some critique of his DD.
Drop by more often Tap
There are hidden catalysts lurking everywhere near term though Affirmed beginning with Teva (Pen 1 products & filing) (approval milestones Epi/S'triptan July), IMS sequential increases of note , new collaboration agreement possibilities.Defining significant moves higher is a relative term, but clear cut evidence of Otrexup sales traction I agree would do it. Guidance Jun/Jul just a Q away if IMS doesn't spell out a strong trend before hand. Management will be able to estimate CY '14 sales by end of 2Q based on rate of script increases, coupled with anticipated insurer adoption ie;United health's 6 month delay on all new 505 products so that would be around Aug 1 for example.
The flow of news seems to be picking up steam in rapid fashion over the last 4-5 months and continuing.
Not dull any more putting it mildly.
Re; cash position bottom page 55
We ended the year with cash & investments (treasury notes/bills) totaling 69.1M. We believe that the combination of current cash & investments, combined with "PROJECTED" product sales, milestone payments,licensing fees, etc, etc will provide us with SUFFICIENT funds to support operations.
Tappy, we've got another 2Qs before we even get to the point of "projected" product sales of significance and by ALL indications, to date, the launch is progressing AT or SLIGHTLY AHEAD of "projected expectation!
NO plans AT ALL to raise capital at this time!
Don't arbitrarily make out of left field comments Tappy is my friendly advise to you particularly when nerves are a bit frayed already!
You are a friend and I do like you BUT, I tell it like it is!
Congrats Best & Jr.!
Did the two of you pick up on APPY from me on the ATRS MB?
FWIW & I could be wrong, taking "some" profit on the news seems a prudent play.
Not suggesting selling out at all. Hold a reasonable % and let it ride. If I didn't like the company and it's potential over the longer term, I wouldn't have rec'd it in the first place!
Nice day for APPY & longs on a bummer of a day for the averages though!
IMS data lags actual product shipments to pharmacies. Factor in X percentage above IMS going forward.
Cash on hand exiting CY '14 will exceed 50M revenue recognition procedure, "irrelevant".
No deviation from attainable O market penetration in annual $ of 200M w/slight uptick to 75M peak via Leo
LJ "positive physician feedback continuing and expanding".
Paul almost came across regarding Medac in a "dismissive manner" as if implying "they have no chance of becoming disruptive to us reaching our goals" (at least familiarize yourself with them, impregnable patent moat or no) All well and good if that is the case, but at least add some insightful details as to why this is the case "without" divulging any legal snippets that might become problematic at a later date.
Over all, a very good call particularly concerning Teva & the balance sheet!
Time to break out the extra dry powder tomorrow. Re-bought more than I should have a bit early, but laid off adding from 4.20 thru LOD in the event of a devoid of rational thinking overshoot.
I won't argue your point 67 because it's a legit complaint, but I also have to point out that Paul has made many critically important moves that are panning out beautifully. I'll take the vagueness and lack of theatrics gladly if he continues to pull all the right levers on the business end and he really has.
I'm going to listen to the call again in silence without distraction for additional clues.
I'll post again later!
I acknowledge the action in the averages guys BUT, this is more than excessive even in a jittery market.
500M MC is equivalent to valuing Otrexup at zero?
Yes, one could flip flop FV on the Teva pipeline (200M) with in-house ex-Otrexup (175M) and quite possibly put up a good argument for Pfizer's 50M FV assignment being under valued but still, at 425M + cash =494M @RTQ that would value total O est. peak @20M?
One could be ultra cautious and value O RA & Leo @ 1/2 X estimated peak and the company would be on sale for 624M or almost a buck a share (85 cents) higher than the close!
Yes, I'm amazed how beaten down no matter how hard the averages are hit!
The Teva pens. Very positive and what I wanted to hear. The MB including myself will need to stay on top of Teva news & filings, but imminent per PW was welcome.
To repeat from a valuation standpoint;
Teva collaborated pipeline FV 200M (cc relationship in great standing and finally ready to advance)
in-house pipeline FV 175M QST QSM *3 new product additions + IP
Pfizer FV 50M
425M asset value ex-Otrexup
425M + 69M cash + O R/A & psoriasis FV @1 x peak of 260M = 754M MC
That is exactly why "company issued" peak estimates are the most reliable. The estimates have remained consistent from late '13 (even intimating more bullish for both R/A & Leo).
What this clearly means is that Medac was already factored in and based on my impressions, Antares garners 75% maybe 80% of the SQ niche even with Medac in the mix.
As per the CC, it's business as usual uninterrupted into the "official" sales trajectory guidance end of Q2.
It's all a mountain out of a mole hill otherwise LJ & PW wouldn't "continue" to project strong peak projections.
Technicals just trumping valuation again which is the main reason I thought a retrace to these levels was almost impossible RV!
Gap filled! Impressive Ryman, I must say!
That said, just to add a little perspective valuation wise consider the following "conservative" at the moment estimates;
Teva collaborated pipeline FV 175M-200M
In house platform/IP "ex-Otrexup" 175M
sub ttl 400M - 425M
RTQ asset value 458M (assets less cash) with Otrexup R/A & psoriasis valued @60M
1 X est. peak O R/A 200M + 60M mid psoriasis OR 260M
Based on the above valuing O @ 1 x peak under values the stock "right now" at 200M !
All the numbers are as conservative as can reasonably be assigned
Conclusion; the stock is very, very cheap!
I'll comment after market close gentlemen! I've got a busy day to attend to.
Class organization ALL THE WAY is Antares. I'm very pleased at this point in time with progress towards achieving main goals and the outstanding, professional way management "conducts themselves"!
is expenses and cash position over the coming Qs! Antares couldn't be in a much better position as the O launch marches onward IMO.
I'm sorry, I just can't seem to get too worked up over Actavis and the Gelnique manufacturing turn over impact!
As far as all the noise on the Medac front is concerned,,,,,,,,,I'm NOT! Antares has a lock on the prime dosages (ea weekly dose/1 injector =1 dose NOT 4 X ea, dose), superior device, solid patent moat, top flight sales and marketing team, and an exclusivity head start in a large niche market that virtually "guarantees success"!
Time to get ready for the call and make follow up comments later!
I love the looks of how Otrexup will fit into the MTX R/A space along with the market size opportunity, that isn't the Q Bazook.
The Q is whether I assign higher valuations to O R/A + psoriasis which *presently (*higher upon confirmation of peak sales trajectory) incorporates Medac entry EOY and values ATRS at close to 700M "OR" ADD O value based on 3 year exclusivity (+another 100M?) "OR" ADD EVEN MORE VALUE to O based on favorable outlook of exclusivity through duration of Orange Book patents!
It makes a difference Bazooka.
Like from current ATRS @ under valued TO ATRS @ "extremely under valued".
Win win, but I'm trying to ascertain just how BIG a win at this point!
Getting down to brass tacks Whogo, Antares v Medac secures "automatic" 30 additional months market exclusivity based on the strength of the Orange Book Patents & SOP litigation procedure that protect Otrexup.
Medac v Antares/Leo counter suit initiated to "posture" a weak position for potential "negotiation". aka; appear aggressive by attacking vs raising the "white flag" defensive Predictable response, as you predicted!
Antares looks bullet proof here. The only Q is whether one subscribes to Larry Smith's explanation (device differentiation / varying dosages) circumvents adhering to full Orange Book patent expiration "OR' doesn't it?
In the meantime, company's peak sales views haven't changed off the 200M peak plus 50M-60M peak psoriasis. Adding an extra 2 1/2 years to market exclusivity "will do what'? From O sales outlook "very good" to "excellent" I would assume!
How are you filling in the above blanks Whogo?
Yours or anyone else's comments welcomed!
Very good Elmer, that is what I posted under Whogo's orange book post a little earlier.
The Medac PR is simply a "response" to Antares' patent lawsuit filed in Delaware back on Feb 28.
"If you know you're holding the losing hand in poker (Medac) the only thing left to do is try to KICK the TABLE OVER"!
Good job assessing what this means!
Agreed Whogo. This ploy (really an SOP response) by Medac isn't going to accomplish much to the positive for them in terms of launch timeline for them or impeding the progress of O.
Some are a bit confused which is normal under the circumstances.
I'm watching it TG!
What I'll do is buy "X" amount in the 4.20s and "X" amount down to 4.12 IF, IF, IF the stock enters those areas!
PS, I also added 4.35-4.43!
I posted about 10 days ago that I "specifically" had reserves set aside for a breach of the 200 but I opted to spend a % of it just above the 200 in the event that I don't get the lower prices.
I always plan ahead!
Selling is OUT OF THE QUESTION down here!
Au contraire mon frare!
Not a mess at all, just the serious minded immersed in thought and a low desire to post.
Another key point in time is upon us albeit secondary to the all important "load the boat" levels sub 4.00 back in Nov. Important never the less though!
Time remaining for final position adjustments (adding only) pre-earnings is almost expired and the additional shreds of information (if paying close attention) coming to light over the last few weeks only reinforce support for the stock.
IMO it appears that the 200 on up to 4.45 has little to no chance of materializing for pre-earnings buyers. So what does one do at this juncture? Hope for the best over the next 2 to 3 trading days to fill extra buy limits 4.38-4.42 OR start chasing the ask at the open Fri. if the futures stay green post employment data?
What's at stake? Only critical maneuvering for position in a stock poised to set a series of new highs over the course of an uptrend that will extend for YEARS 2H '14 thru CY'18 "at minimum". Somewhere between the 4Q call & Paul's O sales trajectory guidance end of 2Q will be when the current highs(5.30-5.50) "are taken out" so swing trading errors at this point in time could prove fatal for anyone not holding a substantial quantity of shares from here on out because more favorable reload ops are disappearing as this current year advances.
The above is why the MB has gone a bit quiet FDA!
Total concentration on strategy and stock movement!