Based on recent news flow (DHHS planned regulation changes bolstered by the Tenncare deal putting a serious dent in the LT Bunavail sales trajectory short thesis. Nice to be acknowledged as the "good guy" amidst the latest round of Washington pharma price gouging rhetoric.
Also based on probably an 80%+ chance of FDA clearance for Bel, a lucrative royalty rate, and milestone payout that oblitirates any balance sheet concerns along with the overhang.
IMO, if the major holder ETF's are pressured by the broader markets and IBB weakness, a well above average opportunity to accumulate on the cheap or possibly even cheaper has now materialized for anyone following the BDSI story.
From a valuation standpoint and factoring the above, anything under 500M would appear very compelling. Sub 400M MC from my viewpoint looks like outstanding value!
Cash preserving personnel cuts to extend the on hand working capital runway thru P3 data & beyond into CY'16 on it's own looks like SOP, but combined with Nov positive P2 end point achieve plus auction of pre-clinic equipment has the feel of a bare bones reduction to just clinical pipeline/ongoing trials to be packaged to SD or other entity.
Cut away all the non-essentials in prep for the large acquiring player closing the deal.
IMO, the stock should have popped to 1.80-2.00 just on the recent data released in Nov + cash (Jan effect delayed reaction?) not including the SD partnership/asset so 300M+ in it's entirety appears well within the realm of reason.