highjacking of shares and warrants at give away prices is FINI ! OVER ! KAPUT ! DONE FOR !
Sure, the street was holding the hammer on the last issuance because we had to have the cash and the manufactured push down into the 1.20s was just the culmination of the robbery process.
Whole new ballgame now however! 10Q "the company has sufficient cash through CY '13 and into CY '14" or in other words, we'll consider our options after we release trial data followed by FDA filing.
Double the stock price and then MAYBE we'll talk and don't even think about any warrants to sweeten the deal because Lundy will be holding the hammer the next go around.
Keep trying to close the gap and I keep accumulating all the expendable trading shares (around my APPY LT core position) disposed on profit taking!
You feel lucky punk? Go ahead, make my day!
Here is a perfect example of how MB NOISE drowns out the relevant in the heat of adversity.
Please read my post about 3 entries down on this thread beginning with "I'm personally not looking" in response to posters that tried to convince the confused masses that no near term catalysts (beyond IMHO a sizable discount to fair value) would surface anytime soon.
FWIW, this spot on call a full week ago confirmed today got all the attention of 1 thumb UP & 1 Down!
Guys, I posted this "immediately" after the CC because Dr. Wotton TOLD US Antares was in the process of monetizing Otrexup for the psoriasis indication.
The MB pushed aside my comment as meaningless drivel because of the now confirmed manufactured stock retreat that seems to ALWAYS dictate, to the easily misled, what a company's value is really worth.
Great news, but I'm not at all surprised due to Dr.Wotton's helpful hints tossed out to any shareholder interested in listening carefully to what he had to say!
Just the usual lineup of standard issue buy advertisements. Nothing new really.
The inescapable truth is that BioMarin wouldn't have literally given away US rights "to anyone" if Co. reps and perceptions within the pharma community were at all or the slightest optimistic view of the commercial potential of Firdapse.
BMRN management built that company from the bottom up by not making silly decisions.
IMHO on the surface it looks like BMRN couldn't sell the asset so they did the next best thing by "installing it" into a shell company that had nothing to lose by assuming responsibility mid P3 and in the process also becoming a legal "buffer" between the ambulance chasers and BioMarin.
Coming off the CPP-109 Cocaine addiction deterrent trial failure, CPRX didn't have many remaining options left sitting well south of a buck and a date with delisting.
Again though, JMHO!
I'll remain in the stock to a varying extent for the foreseeable future, but no more posts for a while!
Sorry about the buy rec @the 200 & slightly below (3.90-396) where I also bought shares, but the overshoot (IMO an overshoot of and overshoot to RTQ) on inspiring company progress was a curve ball that fooled me!
Good job by short interest and I hope they were able to cash in.
Better days ARE ahead though for Antares bulls. All indications are quite positive.
PS, I feel somewhat vindicated by Larry Smith's fair value assessment which parallels my own @600M asset value + cash (albeit his model assigns a higher range) which is comforting because I think he has a very solid understanding of the company.
Best of luck to all!
David, either direction at this point "is fine with me" I'm not a seller at all "under the 200 dma", only a buyer so the only remaining decisions are in determining how far below the 200 can I possibly expect to accumulate the shares and for how long will the opportunity realistically last!
Not a share flipper, so I'm on your side none the less!
Another question for the bottom picking buyers that are still out in the cold is when does the panic buying kick in? My suggestion to the bottom pickers right about now is to start praying for some kind of retrace Mon or you'll soon be chasing the ask.
I'll wager with anyone that S.I. might have only covered 2M-3M shares AT MOST and that is a good thing because when the anticipated good news events start hitting the wires, up moves will be juiced.
Most of the civilized world knows where they're sitting en masse even if your among the group that can't actually see them!
The question is, has or will the strategy change for the hopefuls sitting nearer the 52wk lows to a bid move up closer to meet a double bottom off yesterdays close? Whatever hasn't been covered on the short side (I suspect quite a bit based on moderate volume throughout sell off) appears to be vulnerable especially with sell volume all but completely evaporated.
FWIW, another shot at the 3.50s and I'm putting the "HAMMER DOWN" buying anything I can get to only I don't like my chances at this point.
Hey Pete, yet another high impact milestone event that nobody seems to realize or care to post about other than Loko being Loko and that is helpful.
This is a very large volume product and the royalty rate is at the top of the scale @10%+.
Odd MB at times, but understandable under current circumstances.
BTW, do you know if the agreement entitles Antares to any milestone payments upon filing or FDA approval?
Top, off hand, I think around midday when the PPS downward move stalled on ttl vol of 1M+ in the mid 3.50s and just went back and forth as if machine1 to machine2 trades followed by a low volume reversal back into the 3.60s. All I was seeing on L2 was a series of 100 share to and fro trades until the close when magically a 75K buy was filled at the closing price and most of the last 2-3 hours of trading appeared to be manufactured volume. Also the intraday bounce back was into the teeth of the broader market selloff.
The selling just stopped dead at 3.54-3.55 as if S.I. or MMs ran out of room heading down to where all the buy limits are sitting probably @3.52 on down in bunches sitting in the 3.40s.
The imminent filing of that product is a gigantic plus for Antares and an event I've been particularly looking forward to seeing come to fruition.
Thanks for the heads up Loko!
has completely dried up as though a light switch went on and the last of the weak hands suddenly vanished!
Man! Nice play by S.I. but how in the world do you unwind any quantity and take profits in this stalemate?
Isn't there a higher liklyhood that recognition of rev & profit remains on indeffinitely deferred status (at the behest of Siga management) to squeeze PIP?
Here's a ryme for you. PIP gets ZIP until cash received above (I believe) the first 40M revenue above the 40M is then subject to the court ordered profit/revenue sharing breakdown.
Anybody care to comment on this?
Jab, what really has me energized is that the pipeline needed to bolt the company into hyper growth is ALREADY IN PLACE and steadily advancing.
On the in-house side, QS T will push the throttle wide open because as I have pointed out in the past, if you take a salesforce and expand it say 10- 20% and effectively "double" or a lot more, their revenue generating capability by adding a 2nd large market opportunity product "productivity jumps through the roof". As products are added, up size adjustments to sales/support in order to maximize market penetration are made that increase operating costs fractionally relative to the increase in revenue generated. Amazing!
On the product collaboration side,when all regulatory hurdles are cleared to say Pen1 or better still including Pen1 and then add in our "front loaded" agreement with Pfizer, we are good to go in a big, big way!
So I can't emphasize enough the superb dynamics in play here when you consider the costs to bring on line (thru FDA) a product like Otrexup vs it's revenue generating potential that will "decrease" in total cost (sales/support productivity boost) as each new product is added to the in-house product portfolio.
PS the above is "exactly why" Dr. Wotton has opted to go above and beyond laying the Otrexup launch ground work that will reap impressive results relative to the early stahe cash commitment. "He's simply aligning the big charge with the revenue source boosts from the above products mentioned" vs unnecessary and costly share dilution which based on the CC 100% ruled out for at least over the next 12 months and possibly never.
Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant!
The dim witted can't really comprehend this but I certainly do!
Right Jab, the pre launch prep work has been laid out down to the last detail which naturally gives a smallish sales staff a tremendous edge to, as I like to describe, hit the ground running. This part of the call confirmed exactly what I posted in The Risk Aversion Road to Success about 1 week ago. Even one of the analysts asked if the plan was to ease into the launch and make higher dollar commitments(personnel wise) as revenue ramps. High productivity to offset taking on added risk is Dr. Wotton's mantra so it wasn't a difficult post to think out.
On the point of 1 new product per year. The first MB contributor that I made the following comment was Loko of all people about 6 months ago. Basically what I posted was that once the company started generating FC Antares's growth picture jumps exponentially because management will deploy any excess capital into developing and commercializing additional in-house products or take on joint ventures in a 50/50 proposition. So the 1 product per year "CAN EASILY" evolve into 2-3 or more in a given year depending on the attractiveness of the opportunity and the free cash being generated at the time.
In Short, the only thing separating Antares RIGHT NOW from being an absolute juggernaut is the cash to pursue all the opportunities that I'm sure management is well aware of. We'll get there though, no question about it.
Cash is trash without a high ROI place to invest it!
Right Joe! This has been the trend for the space as a whole for a while now. The beneficiaries are the buyers sifting through the rubble for bargains.
Hmmm, BTW, which ever analyst issued the upgraded PT most likely is as bewildered as the rest of us. If anywhere in the ballpark the buyers down here will absolutely clean up.
I'm looking for the 200 DMA in relative short order 2-3 weeks? and then a test of 4.15. Thats as far ahead I'm looking right this moment.
Also FWIW the comical poster of the day stated that if 600M in revenue is all we can expect in say 3 years we're in trouble!
Look at it this way, a paltry 3 X sales valuation would give us a 1.8B MC company (roughly a 13-14 dollar stock) plus the new products along the way selected as new in-house pipeline candidates. The company just proved that they can get these candidates through the FDA.
I'm personally not looking that far out although double digits plus in 24 months is definitely attainable IF we haven't been acquired beforehand.
No I see near term catalysts strewn all over the place starting with Otrexup off shore partnerships including the just mentioned psoriasis indication partnership intention!
There"s plenty more in the near term that I'll consider and post later but the above is just for openers!
Painful but ultimately very rewarding!