I was over the top harsh critiquing Adam Feuerstein's views on Otrexup because upon further review, I find that there is some sprinkling of facts & truths incorporated in the full article.
For instance, oral methotrexate IS the most widely prescribed of the existing options (70% of a total 1.5M RA patients). Injectable methotrexate DOES deliver higher blood levels of the drug over pills. And lastly, IT IS inconvenient for a patient to make office visits to be administered an injection.
Well, the above is at least something that EVERYBODY can agree with!
Now to the disagreement phase. "Rheumatologists and insurers aren't likely to embrace Otrexup"? As expected initial tier3 reimbursement with also expected transition to tier2.. No lack of embrace that I can see! or perhaps the insurers would prefer to foot the bill for biologic therapies instead? "Rheumatologists not likely to embrace Otrexup". Not according to feedback from the top RA authorities and practitioners in the country. Dr. Wotton was "man of the year" at the American College of RA Convention in San Diego fall '13. Ears to the ground! Seasoned sales reps walking in to corporate to apply for a territory on the buzz that building! Combine all that with the highly qualified, highly respected figures in the RA world that represent Antares and one would be remiss not to totally disagree with the AF premise.
"In office injections cheaper"? Really! $548.00 / 4 dose script or $137.00 per vs office visit at ? $150.00???
"The benefits of Otrexup over oral unfounded"? This is just plain silly but exactly why some patients are transitioned off oral to an injected form in the first place. Intramuscular vs no pain in home convenience? That isn't a tough one Adam!
To conclude, AF has written many informative pieces for the Street but I must say , without bias, this had the look and content of something he researched in 10 minutes. Nobody is perfect I suppose!
Apologies to the MB for the response to old news, but I felt it necessary to respond to the individual that shall remain nameless!
I find it hard to believe that I actually made an effort to give that guy a heads up looking for nothing in return other than the wishful thinking that he would conduct himself in a more professional manner!
Like trying to turn lead into gold unfortunately!
I'm not at all quick to jump on pep rally bandwagons, after all, when was the last time anybody on this MB heard a CEO say that launch prospects are currently projected to be sluggish or even dismal? Never!
My optimism is based on what I perceive to be a market need/void that O fills perfectly which was a key ingredient in the original screening/selection process to begin with or more fact based. That said, my optimism is now actually increasing based on what my instincts are telling me.
A few points to consider are as follows;
a) the first sign (for me) was the podium presentation highlight at the American College of Rheumatology conference in San Diego. Dr.Wotton; "the response was overwhelming"!
b) per my post, first key release of hard numbers indicative of future success should be Q3 '14. Dr. Wotton; "we anticipate sufficient sales data to assess launch trajectory in the June/July time frame". IMO, CEO SOP when in doubt "is to buy more time" and based on that comment "there doesn't seem to be any doubt".
c) "We are very happy to have partnered with Leo as opposed to selecting other interested parties" and "we are already receiving valuable input from Leo pertaining to sales enhancing methodology". Dr.Wotton; (translated) " the combined sales forces (Leo/Quintiles) specialized and built to acheive max market penetration".
FWIW, I liked the potential of O from the beginning, but my instincts are now screaming at me that I should or will be doing victory cartwheels by the time early indications of success are circulating on the street! Remember, I'm the one that from time to time verbally beats down over done optimism or unbridled pumping countering with conservative optimism! I may have to adjust personal O sentiment from positive to sensational.
Anybody else getting these vibes?
3 month uptrend (ex-whip saw patience testers).
Really not much to discuss at this point while we're riding the up slope of the 50 dma (again I say "could" continue for a long, long time).
The presentation? Of interest I'm sure, but not beyond an additional uptick of urgency to acquire shares "pre-earnings call".
Right on track as things stand now though. New highs somewhere between the end of Q1 (3/31) and the beginning of Q3 (7/10 or 2 yr anniversary of first setting the level). The only change from what I anticipated 3 months ago is that the road to new highs "that hold" appears to be materializing a bit "sooner" within the above time line range just described.
The unknown at this point, is if the 50 dma begins trending more "upwardly vertical" *2H '14, but from my personal viewpoint, the current up slope if sustained over the next several years "works fantastic for me with NO COMPLAINTS about enduring the whip saws".
Very happy thus far, mainly because the stock is performing (ex-volatility) exactly as I thought it would from Nov. to the present.
Have a good one everybody!
when seeking relief from insomnia! Works wonders more often than not!
My personal CY '14 view has remained consistent and unchanged over the last 6 weeks whether 1000 posts per day here or zero.
1) positioning below the 200 dma is an ideal play to hold with confidence based on discount to fair value of assets "especially" in a market where "under valuation" (particularly bio space) is rare to non-existent.
2) analyst PT raise IS in fact quite plausible in that the 7/12 highs "should" be retested in proximity to the coming 2 year anniversary based on the stock inevitably moving back to modeled fair value @600M +cash.
3) avg.analyst PT could or will be achieved back half of CY '14 based on level of street enthusiasm over ttl Oxtrexup sales reported *(3Q '14).
4) EOY '14 / CY '15 is another ball of wax due to the anticipated Epi / Sumatriptan / FDA & pen1 / accelerating O sales / other pipeline advances,etc. and thus newly elevated PTs for EOY '15 will be issued post 3Q '14. No need to speculate IMO on this at this time.
Unless fresh "unexpected" news hits the wires that influences the above projections, again IMO, there really isn't much to discuss without becoming repetitive ad nauseam.
PS, once again, Larry Smith's psoriasis assessment is as sensible as anything else out there at roughly 50M mid point annual peak which includes total revenues ATRS booked with milestones at a perceived 50/50 split. A very clean, very tidy agreement and a solid assist towards establishing "the favorable early ttl O sales trajectory" required (back half '14) to break the the PPS out to new multi year highs!
Greetings and felicitations Ryman!
An old investing sage that I grew to admire and respect told me that in most cases, the most profitable investments are in under the radar companies that the institutions have not yet piled into. The trick, as is always the case, is in having the ability to "separate wheat from the chaff". Conversely, heavily owned institutional lemons are "absolutely where you never want to be". When they crash, they crash and burn badly for obvious reasons.
My advantage is that I know how to value specific companies and am better equipped to capitalize on market innefficiencies. You would be amazed at the percentage of retail that has not the slightest clue what they are holding is actually worth. I can hear it now! The stock is worth what the market says that it is, right! WRONG!
Why wrong? Market innefficiencies! The sage said that it was ultimately up to me to distinquish when these innefficiencies surface and then pounce on the opportunity. ie; the fabulous post FDA Otrexup selloff as an example. I couldn't do more than "implore" the investors that read this MB to buy and buy big "anything" under the 200 DMA because it was a "no lose" play based on my valuation model (that I posted almost 3 months ago) and that it was especially important because (as I stated) my analysis indicated that a new stage of the long term uptrend is just getting under way and positioning for this is critical. My comment verbatum was "you do not want to screw this opportunity up because you will soon find out why".
Ryman, I've become a real student of how management operates and how brick by brick they building this company. No doubt about it that I've taken a special interest and after 5 years of watching and asking myself why is Paul Wotton doing this and what is the plan if this happens or doesn't. Jab will tell you that we've posted back and forth on topics 2-3 years ago that are just now becoming relevant.
Dan, take a time out and closely read the chart!
Presentation or no the stock is in a mini consolidation which implies "why" would tomorrow be a glorious or even strongly positive day. As I've posted, I expect positive reinforcement from LJ comments which is all well and good and should bolster support/interest but the near term event of significant impact remains the 4Q call!
"It's ALL ABOUT continuing the trend" Dan, NOT day to day moves and the trend is UP! This fact can't be debated!
Everything else manufactured by the hot air buffoons that struggle for relevance is moot unless the uptrend breaks down and I don't see that scenario unfolding as a viable possibility.
Au contraire mon frare!
Not a mess at all, just the serious minded immersed in thought and a low desire to post.
Another key point in time is upon us albeit secondary to the all important "load the boat" levels sub 4.00 back in Nov. Important never the less though!
Time remaining for final position adjustments (adding only) pre-earnings is almost expired and the additional shreds of information (if paying close attention) coming to light over the last few weeks only reinforce support for the stock.
IMO it appears that the 200 on up to 4.45 has little to no chance of materializing for pre-earnings buyers. So what does one do at this juncture? Hope for the best over the next 2 to 3 trading days to fill extra buy limits 4.38-4.42 OR start chasing the ask at the open Fri. if the futures stay green post employment data?
What's at stake? Only critical maneuvering for position in a stock poised to set a series of new highs over the course of an uptrend that will extend for YEARS 2H '14 thru CY'18 "at minimum". Somewhere between the 4Q call & Paul's O sales trajectory guidance end of 2Q will be when the current highs(5.30-5.50) "are taken out" so swing trading errors at this point in time could prove fatal for anyone not holding a substantial quantity of shares from here on out because more favorable reload ops are disappearing as this current year advances.
The above is why the MB has gone a bit quiet FDA!
Total concentration on strategy and stock movement!
I am BORED TO TEARS so I'll try my best to finally get through to the posters bent out of shape needlessly over the executive compensation NON-ISSUE.
The following was selected quick and easy because there are many other examples that are similar;
Spectrum Pharmaceuticals 600M MC
As per FY '12 annual SEC proxy statement
a) Raj Shrotriya (name ring a bell anyone) CEO
base salary : 2.4M
equity : 7.385M
other : 323K
Total compensation FY '12 10.12M
b) Joseph Keller COO
base salary: 388K
Total compensation FY '12 3.955M
As per FY '12 annual proxy statement
a) Paul K Wotton CEO
base salary: 907K
Total FY '12 compensation 1.4M
b) Robert Apple CFO
base salary: 567K
Total FY '12 compensation 791K
c) Dave Kaushik VP Product Development
Total FY '12 compensation 768K
"IS ANY OF THE ABOVE at least BEGINNING TO SINK INTO YOUR HEADS"?
OH, and BTW ol' Raj also contributed a nifty 100M convertible note issuance XMAS gift to SPPI holders just last month!
I really would have preferred to single out or appear to pick on our board member Raj, but I was in a hurry to select a comparison subject and it happened to be Spectrum.
CAN WE FINNALLY MOVE ON TO THE TRUELY RELEVANT NOW!
I'm in no mood to debate you, but JMHO is that you'd be much more appreciated by simply posting what you unearth "without" drawing any personal conclusions.
ie; most recently you posted of imminent Ovaleap / Teva expansion. Fine! Did I immediately add to my FV estimates? NO. I base stock valuation only on what is listed on the surface and that is it.
My take on the info was & is that Teva has been sitting on their hands long enough and must get aggressive to reinvent themselves post Copaxone/generics/oral MS. That fits!
The next thought is that Antares undoubtedly has opportunities to pursue collaborations outside of Teva so it's a safe bet that Dr. Wotton will or already has granted Teva "priority" based on the suspected current pipeline expansion plans. It's logical because Antares is now an "independent" company (in-house platform/Pfizer), free to pursue alternate business opportunities if Teva isn't motivated enough to build on the current relationship.
I didn't add a nickel on the above to my valuation model and still factoring in all considerations, the company is undervalued here considerably. I may have theories, but none of them have an influence on what the company is worth NOW
No theories. No fingers crossed projections. Just evaluate based on what IS and add a premium based on growth projections for the industry.
Competition? Bring it on. The cost to bring products to market vs the projected rewards is off the charts no matter how you slice it.
I know I'm ruffling the feathers of the swing traders and short sellers here with facts but,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,TOO #$%$ BAD!
IN YOUR FACE!
How 'bout a nice tally of red thumbs to reveal yourselves from under the rocks which you all reside!
Yes , THE HACK is BACK!
Same cat, just with slightly different MB stripes this go around
Let us not even continue with the QST debate just this moment being that it is a projected CY '16 product launch shall we.
Of course anything to divert attention away from a brilliant 4Q call in 5 weeks is all in a days work, right MDR.
How about when the Uman facility hastily begins re-manufacturing product MONTHS ahead of schedule to keep pace with Otrexup demand? Oh well, a years supply on hand isn't all that it's cracked up to be I suppose when it's a hot commodity right MD.
Smoke and mirrors, confuse and spin, twist and shout!
Nice MDR and welcome back!
Alright children, time to go to work!
I want to see this entire MB covered in adolescent drivel before those long the stock finish sipping their after dinner brandy!
"POST HASTE" you collection of misfit MB Muppets!
That means NOTHING constructive visible to the prying eyes of potential buyers of the stock and we WOULDN'T want to cramp the style of those that crave more shares now would we! Remember, "greed is good"!
I'll settle for sub 3.90 at this point so what are we gonna do about that gang?
Get in front of your little computers and,,,,,,,, GET TO WORK!
GET TOUGH and LET'S GET GOING!
The absurdity of resorting to labeling Dr. Wotton's scheduled compensation as a harbinger of trouble is utterly ridiculous. For the third time, add up ALL the insider sales over the last 2 years vs. total insider shares held and the corresponding % of ttl position sold. This is particularly relevant in light of the highs put in 17 months ago AS WELL as the fact that management/street knew at that time that a share issuance was in the cards! EVEN under those circumstances,,,,,,,,NO HEAVY INSIDER SELLING!
A death blow would be if a larger player pried Paul away from Antares by offering to"double" what he stands to make here! Now that scares me, and what he has accomplished in 5 years has upped his value/stature within the industry sky high. ATRS IMHO gets whacked for a 1.00, at least, if Paul Wotton ever resigned to pursue a more lucrative CEO position elsewhere. "If PW & staff are happy (with their compensation),,,,,,,,,,,I'm happy"!
So PW guides the company from a 40M MC speck of dust on the wall to a 500M company with the assets "in place and advancing" that will double the current value inside of 2 years and he's bashed for cashing in WHAT, 1.3M in options & shares above and beyond his base salary OVER THE LAST 2 YEARS! "The bargain of the century for ATRS shareholders"!
This last gasp BS just ain't gonna fly!
Been rehashing the short the launch thesis for weeks now and it still doesn't add up!
Put another way, shorting Antares & Otrexup specifically, meets only a tiny segment of the over all criteria when screening for likely candidates.
As an example of prime target characteristics;
1) small/micro caps that have NO marketed product/products supplementing the new launch product
2) NO current recurring source of revenue
3) NO pipeline behind the 1 product launch or any additional product candidates advanced to clinic/P1
4) limited cash reserves to fund a "go it alone" sales/marketing effort without raising added capital
5) questionable or not clearly defined market opportunity
The above are just a few components required of what I perceive to be a sensible set of criteria when selecting small company early "in-house" product launches to SHORT. Antares meets NONE of THEM!
BTW Dr. Wotton IMO completely short circuited a key area of vulnerability (cash consumption) by deftly negotiating a superb "contract sales" agreement with Quintiles. The Leo deal is an additional NO RISK component that "reinforces" top line growth potential of Otrexup.
There is considerably more to this, but I thought I'd post the condensed version for the MB at this time!
Good Loko, only this news doesn't exactly qualify as stunning considering the Medac poster presentation at the RA Convention.
The above is #1.
#2 is that the US RA market is enormous and the SQ MTX niche plenty large an op for several players and some form of competition inevitable. A big plus that Antares has probably a 10 month jump establishing a market foothold.
#3 this is exactly why I bashed the posters pumping annual estimates of 5,6,700M. My rec, and still is, is to rely on company issued estimates in the 200M annual peak range and "I guarantee you management was aware and factored in the presence of Medac and an educated idea of how our device stacks up to theirs.
Good that you're on your toes Loko, but you are misinterpreting the impact.
Yes, you do have seniority over my Feb '09 Ryman. Our strategies/modus operandi vary a bit but the end results have proven successful for us both and I congratulate you. Conservative optimism best describes our appraisal of the company's prospects up to this point I would say and it has served us well.
That said, my outlook is morphing into just plain very optimistic. Right now I'm the most bullish I've been in terms of certainty that promising potential will be achieved, for a long, long time,or even ever because the barriers lined up like dominoes are beginning to tumble. 2+ years ago I did have concerns/apprehensions regarding costs associated with the Otrexup launch. My comment to Jab was that efficiencies of scale kick in when we launch QS T ie; 1 sales force (expanded to meet 2nd high vol product) & appropriate support infrastructure "or" SG&A as a percentage of revenue plummets. The concern, at the time, was the time gap between the two launches.
Enter the genius of Paul Wotton!
To be con't PS I'll just shut up if you don't care to read my thoughts on this!
for the discontented here.
Sell the stock!
I think it's the best move you could possibly make if you are not really bowled over by the revenue generating potential of the pipeline or think the pace moving towards the good is far too slow for your liking.
I'm mean it sincerely! No taunting, just honest advise!
My ATRS position works for me because a) I did my homework and got superb position on my latest (hopefully last) reload of shares. b) current account cash position at levels more than adequate to chase multiple ST / MoMo plays simultaneously.
A 25% - 30% annualized return on the ATRS position going forward sets up perfectly the ST trading side of my port. THAT is all the edge I need as a back stop when allocating cash into high risk/high return plays.
The LT holds outside ATRS are what they are Zzzzzzzzzz!
MLPs (KMP / EPB etc)
MOS (recent addition)
etc, etc, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
ATRS management, company, & stock fits perfectly into my port,,,,,,,,,,period!
MHO is SELL your stock ASAP if your requirements or expectations aren't being met here!
PS, congrats Whogo on the ITMN play! Nice work, but I'm surprised that you needed the cash from your Antares position to buy in on it! It worked out though so again, congratulations!
Sell before the week is out and relax over the W/E!
are headed this way. The trading is telegraphing what my instincts have been whispering in my ear for days now!
Today's presentation puts Paul Wotton in a somewhat odd position, unlike I have sensed "ever". Pro managers are sniffing around our door step like blood hounds given heightened Otrexup sentiment combined with the soon to be heightened interest in QS T which of course leads to heightened interest in Antares in it's entirety.
Will he limit the presentation content and be more informative with analysts post webcast? Could be if the intent is to throw a bone out there in the form of a window of opportunity for instys to accumulate shares "pre-QS T" and "technical breakout".
Same ol', same ol' though.
S.I. unwinding quantity? Tough when nobody is selling!
Insty accumulation? Tough when nobody is selling!
Fascinating point in time for Antares and us shareholders to say the least!
All IMHO of course!
The genius of the growth plan.
As we now know, a significant chunk of costs and risks have been mitigated by the Quintiles agreement as well as the deal signed with Leo vs the assumption of total control in-house along with increased sales/marketing costs with the benefit of potentially reaping higher net profit rewards. Tricky call to put it mildly. As I listed in my prime 1st product short candidate, the criteria included a) no additional current sources of revenue b) nothing in late stage clinic c) limited financial resources. The just described small bio HAS NO CHOICE but to throw the kitchen sink into the launch of a product that HAS TO ramp quickly or suffer grave consequences at the hands of short sellers and shareholders running for the exits.
Completely different story at Antares. Paul Wotton wants no part of "jeopardizing" the entire pipeline of assets by over extending the company needlessly. In other words, he considered all the moving pieces that comprises ATRS and has, as financially efficient as possible, put the Oxtrexup effort in motion and in a position via DD/pre-launch prep/key in-house personnel to succeed and lift the company to profitability minus unnecessary risk.
Granted, it would be very helpful to look closely at the Quintiles agreement details.ie; duration of agreement, percentage of total sales, etc. Importantly, early on, in most launches, is characterized by steep expenses not yet offset by sales volume so ATRS benefits the most early on with the 2 collaborations. Prudent profitability. Interesting Ryman, do you know what the industry norm is in terms of an asset sale to an acquirer based on total sales? I think it's somewhere around 4 X sales if the patent moat is strong coupled with MD/patient acceptance. Pretty valuable asset potentially here don't you think RY at say 150M annual. Whats our MC?
To be Con't