And I certainly value your opinion,as well. I am an old codger,myself, and agree that China looks dicey. However, I am thinking (hoping?) that an outside developer (ie. not Chinese) is licking its chops to take advantage of the perks being thrown their way(eg plunging interest rates,weakening yuan) and will swoop in to buy out NTP sometime before next spring.
If I was sure that NTP had no intention of selling and was 100% intent on carrying through with funding the development on its own,and I was equally sure that it could not find a joint venture partner, then I would agree that keeping the cash on hand would be best for the shareholder.
Our only real point of difference is how to use the cash. We agree that buying back 15 million shares is a good use of the cash. Where we differ is whether to give the shareholder the leftover cash allocated for the buy back or let it continue to sit in the bank drawing ever decreasing interest.
The tender offers(albeit few) will come from institutional/mutual fund shareholders. Small investors only hold around 19 million shares. The vast majority of those probably hold less than 1000 shares. How many of those shareholders who want to sell would tender their shares( vs. selling in the market ) to save $40 bucks ?
Kahn Brothers holds around 3 million shares. Maybe they indicated they want to get out and will sell their entire holdings. Otherwise, I doubt NTP will buy back more than two million shares.
I thought you were the one who thought NTP should save its cash. Now you think they should spend it ?
The price drop today is the result of yet another drop in the yuan and day traders batting it around without any awareness of what NTP is or does.
Even if the price remains under the tender offer the tender offer will be grossly under-subscribed. I'm not sure why you think that lower interest rates and the Chinese government making commercial development a priority hurts NTP or other developers.
The company is relying on "unreliable" banks now to fund the share buy back. Interest rates are plunging in China. The government is committed to stimulating commercial development.
What are you talking about ??? China is furiously cutting interest rates to stimulate lending and borrowing for development.
nor is the company in discussions with a 3rd party to effect a "going private" transaction.So as the days for tendering shares dwindle and the offer price remains considerably lower than the market price, this buy back becomes a great big nothing ball.
That makes no sense. By offering to use 82 million to buy back stock NTP indicates it does not need that cash.
I hope you are not suggesting that selling $2/share of my stock is the equivalent of receiving a bonus dividend of $2/share. The dividend would not decrease the share price by $2. To the contrary, it would increase the share price significantly.
I've held this stock for 9 years. I happen to believe that NTP is going to enter into a joint venture with a developer or will sell the company outright within the next 9 months. Either way, I don't think the cash will be deployed for developing the property.
If I am right, then returning excess cash to the share holders is the way to go. It has absolutely nothing to do with "playing the currency market..."
But my question is what would you like NTP to do if very few or no shares are tendered ? I would like that cash returned to me rather than sit in the NTP cash account.
If China continues to devalue its currency, then that 82 million is shrinking every day it sits in the NTP account. In fact, over the last few days that 82 million is now around 79 million.
Apparently, NTP doesn't think it needs the 82 million for the project going forward. Otherwise, it would not be allocating those monies for a buyback.
If NTP feels it does not need the 82 million for development and that cash is going to sit idle in NTP's cash account,then I would rather it sit idle in my account.
And if no shares are tendered,would you rather that 82 million sit in the bank or be returned to you in a $2.00 dividend ?
I would think the prospects of a 33% dividend would boost the share price quite a bit.
If no one tenders their shares and since NTP was prepared to spend 82 million on a share back,then why not use that 82 million to offer a special $2 /share dividend instead ?
I heard from McGrath who confirms that the 6,916, 000 shares that Kellogg owns does include the IAT owned shares in that total. Thanks to calaggie and gman for helping to correct my misunderstanding.
If the Board of Directors feels that the stock is grossly undervalued,then what would be Kellogg's rationale for selling any of his shares ? Do the stock options held by board members play into the tender offer somehow ?
I have not heard back from McGrath, but he has been prompt in responding to my e-mails in the past, so I'm hoping to hear something by the end of tomorrow. I will let you know what he says when he responds..
Yeah, the Form 20-F contains the same paragraph,but it also separates out the Kellogg and IAT shares as two different major shareholders which taken together hold a total of 12,690,800 shares.
You made a good suggestion so I have sent an e-mail to McGrath asking for clarification. I will let folks know what he says.
I'm looking at the 3/1/15 Form 20-F(page 46) and it lists the beneficial ownership of outstanding shares and % of ownership of the major shareholders:
Peter R. Kellogg- 6,916,000 shares (16.2%)
Koo Ming Kown- 5,922,486,000 shares (13.7%)
IAT Reinsurance Co-5,774,800 shares (13.6%)
From that listing it suggests that Kellogg and IAT own around 12.7 million shares ( 29.8%) From your post, it appears I'm misinterpreting the Form 20-F.
I do note that Mr. Kellogg beneficially owns 6,916,000 shares and has disclaimed beneficial ownership of the IAT shares.
This suggests to me that Kellogg beneficially owns 6.9 million shares and that IAT beneficially owns an additional 5.7 million shares to which Kellogg disclaims beneficial ownership( although he is the sole shareholder).
Any assistance from you or gman in helping me understand this would be appreciated. Thanks.
Koo owns 5.3 million shares
Kellogg owns 6.9 million shares in his personal account
IAT Reinsurance Co. owns 5.8 million shares (Kellogg is the sole proprietor)
Currently Koo and Kellogg control around 18 million out of 40 million outstanding shares. Assuming that neither one tenders his shares and 5 million shares are repurchased, then Koo and Kellogg will control over 50% of the shares.
I have to believe that Koo and Kellogg plan to sell the company or take it private and probably by years end.