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Mercury General Corporation Message Board

koyak23 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 9, 2014 9:10 AM Member since: Mar 24, 2011
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  • koyak23 koyak23 Oct 9, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Actually, the last quarterly report shows that cash reserves are increasing,not dwindling. as of July it had 303 million in cash and short term investments. It received almost $600,000 in rental income. The dividend cost is about $900,000/quarter so between the rental income and the interest that 300 million earns, I'm guessing that most(if not all) of the dividend is covered by those revenues.

    That said, I will be surprised if the dividend continues next year.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by dangiteli Sep 22, 2014 7:17 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 26, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    Actually, my post was addressing the notion that the recent price decline may represent a good time for NTP to step in with a significant purchase of shares per its plan to buyback 40 million worth of stock by November.. The $7 figure was a throw away line meant to indicate that price fluctuations,especially downwards, mean very little at this point(other than being a good time for NTP to buy. We do seem to agree on the basics here. Where we differ is you think the share price could drop to $3 and I believe that the price will bounce between $6 and $7 during this buyback period.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by dangiteli Sep 22, 2014 7:17 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 25, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I've been a holder since 2006. Currently, it is selling for less than cash on hand.The land is not worthless. I don't need any help sleeping at night. My cost basis is so low that the downside is negligible and the upside potential makes it easy to be patient. I'm more interested in what the share price will be 4-5 years from now.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by dangiteli Sep 22, 2014 7:17 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 24, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    How does a buyback help shareholders ? For one thing, it suggests that the owners have more confidence in the company than the market does. For another, it increases the value per share.

    As far as positive updates and real progress,I think you will find it in last month's report. NTP is being given the necessary approvals and permits to move forward with the land development which is very positive.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by dangiteli Sep 22, 2014 7:17 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 23, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    If NTP is serious about an aggressive buyback,then this looks like a good week to do so... back to $7/share by Friday ?

  • Reply to

    Miller Share

    by sambomishsitka Sep 16, 2014 1:58 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 18, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    I would take the $54,000 after taxes and add it to my tax free 529 plan which would help fund the college education of my grandson.

  • Reply to

    Miller Share

    by sambomishsitka Sep 16, 2014 1:58 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 17, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    I think I would rather have a check for $64,000...

  • Reply to

    Nam Tai Valuation

    by queen_anne_22 Sep 16, 2014 10:56 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 16, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    The market is telling us that the company is worth less than the the cash it has on hand. The market is telling us that the land is worthless and that the Wuxi plant is worthless. I think the market will be shown to be wrong in the long run...

  • Reply to

    Updated Land Value

    by mrkruncher Sep 14, 2014 2:23 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 16, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    The report indicates that the company placed a $38 million value on the Wuxi plant including the land and equipment. It is currently for sale. My guess is that tech plants are not in high demand right now.

    If you eliminate Wuxi from the equation,then the remaining land is worth between $289 and $361 million. The low end is based on full sale of the land and the high end is based on land being fully leased. At this point the company plans to sell some land and lease the rest.

    I take that to mean that full sale value of the land would be around $6.45/share and fully leased would be around $8/share(excluding the value of the Wuxi plant). With $300 million cash on hand that gives a value range of around $13/share after full sale and $14.70/share for fully leased.

    NTP said in their last report that it is looking for investors to join the project development of the land. The largest share holders,Koo and Kellogg, are in their 70's. Do they want to participate in a long term project at this stage of their lives ?

    At this point, the good news is that the government appears to be in support of the project and that permits and approvals are being issued without any fuss.

    One possibility to consider is that a commercial development company will take an interest in NTP sometime next year as the project continues to progress and would make an offer to buy out NTP for say $14/share.

    I certainly would be a seller if that offer came in between now and next summer.

    Just a thought.

  • Reply to

    Updated Land Value

    by mrkruncher Sep 14, 2014 2:23 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 15, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Plus, NTP reported $303 million cash on hand as of 6/30/14 or $6.70/share which makes the estimated value of the company a little over $14/share.

  • Reply to

    Updated Land Value

    by mrkruncher Sep 14, 2014 2:23 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 15, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Nevermind.

    I think I'm off by a factor of 10. I think the value is more like 340 million dollars or around $7.60/share.

  • Reply to

    Updated Land Value

    by mrkruncher Sep 14, 2014 2:23 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 15, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    On the NTP web site and dated 9/11/14 there is a consultation report by Centaline Property Agency Limited that was completed 8/28/14.

    It looks like they value the two land parcels and the Wuxi plant at 21 billion CNY or a little over 3 billion dollars. I fear that I am misreading/miscalculating the numbers because that value would equate to over $60/share.

    For those who are not math challenged like me, please go to the end of the report and check my numbers. It looks like the value is 215,000 x 10,000 CNY(yuan) or 21.5 billion CNY. (one yuan=.16usd) or $3.4 billion

    Where am I off in this ?

  • Reply to

    Sold!!

    by stockman5206 Jul 12, 2014 3:49 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Sep 5, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    You lost out on a 3% gain over the last 50 days or so... Are you sure you want to wait another 130 days ?

  • Reply to

    buyback mainly

    by dangiteli Aug 4, 2014 7:32 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Aug 5, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    I have owned the stock since 2005. The latest earnings report indicates that NTP has repurchased a little less than one million shares. That is about 18% of the projected buyback. Today would be a good day for them to buy another few thousand shares :) Hopefully, NTP will continue its buyback at a faster pace between now and November.

    The earnings report suggests that the land development plans are on track which is good news. Also, they indicate that they are looking for other investors to join them in the development. If this were to happen,I think that would be a good sign.

    I have no first hand info about Kellogg and Kahn,but I do recall reading that Kahn increased his holdings back in the late spring. I would be interested in whether Kellogg and Kahn have made any changes (plus or minus) in their holdings. If you find out, please let us know.

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