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Mercury General Corporation Message Board

koyak23 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 8:00 AM Member since: Mar 24, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Now 2/3 rds of cash value

    by implants_2 Dec 15, 2014 6:01 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Dec 18, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    NTP's dividend payout is better than a 5 year treasury. Just think of your holding as a 5 year treasury with a lottery ticket as a kicker.

  • Reply to

    Insiders

    by hydropump Nov 14, 2014 11:16 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Dec 10, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    It looks like the fund began one year ago(November 6,2013) so its track record is brief. It had a gain of around 7% during the first 8 months but has dropped considerably since. it is a small cap foreign deep value fund that appears to be tracking its benchmark.

    As Dangiteli says, it appears that Iben is a contrarian investor who goes where angels fear to tread and is someone who doesn't mind waiting for investments to pay off.

  • Reply to

    Insiders

    by hydropump Nov 14, 2014 11:16 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Dec 8, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Yes, Kahn continues to own 8.2% of the shares as of 9/30/14. It looks like Kellogg, Kellogg's investment group,and Koo own about 40% of the shares as of 1/31/14. Unless there have been some changes in share ownership,it means that these three investors essentially control 48% of the shares.

    One interesting investor is Kopernik Global Investors. It owned around 200,000 shares on April 30th and now owns 502,000 shares. It more than doubled its position during the buy back period.

  • Reply to

    Repurchase Program

    by crosscourtforehand Nov 29, 2014 11:51 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Dec 3, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    Your figure is more precise. I was going by projected shares purchased at the time of the original announcement. At that point the stock price was around $7.60 or roughly 5 million shares. today it looks like NTP will be more like 2.5 million shares.

    You are correct. The total purchase amount as of the end of November is going to be in the 35-40% range, assuming another 4-500,000 shares were purchased last month.

    So, it seems reasonable that NTP may decide to re-authorize the buyback program and continue it into the spring or summer.

  • Reply to

    Repurchase Program

    by crosscourtforehand Nov 29, 2014 11:51 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Dec 2, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    Yes, I am aware that approval would be needed in order to extend the buyback period, and I think it would be wise to do so. I assume there will be a press release in the next few days informing us of the number of shares bought in November. My hope is that the report will include an intention to continue the buyback plan given the absurdly low share price.

  • Reply to

    Repurchase Program

    by crosscourtforehand Nov 29, 2014 11:51 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Dec 2, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    That is a good question. The company announced the buyback plan when the stock was around $7/share. As of October about 1/2 of the projected buyback was completed. it would seem that NTP would extend the buyback period beyond November and take advantage of the low price.

    It seems like buying $6/share in cash for less than $5/share would be a pretty good deal even if you value the land at $0/share.

  • Reply to

    Smells like a dividend cut coming

    by bridgejumper08 Nov 13, 2014 12:56 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Nov 13, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    The dividend is intact for the entire year. No change in the dividend until November 2015.

  • Reply to

    Gulp

    by crosscourtforehand Nov 3, 2014 9:05 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Nov 3, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    I'm surprised they kept the dividend for another year. They continue to have over 300 million cash or almost $7/share. Buying $7 for only $5.60 looks like a pretty good deal to me. They have bought back over 2 million shares with another month of buybacks ahead.

    I'm less concerned about the real estate market today. What will the market look like in 2017-2018 and beyond ?

    Meantime here's hoping the Wuxi facility sells and that some VC or hedge fund has decided to join NTP in the land development project.

  • koyak23 koyak23 Oct 9, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Actually, the last quarterly report shows that cash reserves are increasing,not dwindling. as of July it had 303 million in cash and short term investments. It received almost $600,000 in rental income. The dividend cost is about $900,000/quarter so between the rental income and the interest that 300 million earns, I'm guessing that most(if not all) of the dividend is covered by those revenues.

    That said, I will be surprised if the dividend continues next year.

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