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Mercury General Corporation Message Board

koyak23 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2016 7:22 AM Member since: Mar 24, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Land value updates

    by koyak23 Jun 16, 2016 7:36 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Jun 23, 2016 7:22 AM Flag

    I went back and checked my review of Savils,and it looks like I skipped right over Guangming which is 1020 million RMB. So the raw land value on this assessment would be 462 million using 1RMB=.15USD. That would place the raw land+cash at $18/share

    As I recall Savills was significantly higher than the other two in the previous round of assessments,as well.

    Thanks for the correction,bleu. Can you check my figures on the other two assessments ? Thanks in advance.

  • Reply to

    Land valuations - part 2

    by queen_anne_22 Jun 22, 2016 1:21 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Jun 22, 2016 5:12 PM Flag

    I agree. I have held this stock for 10 years and have had no reason to question or distrust Mr. Koo. As far as location is concerned, the property is pretty close to the international airport and is situated to be quite accessible as the developing transportation system continues to unfold.

  • Reply to

    Land valuations - part 2

    by queen_anne_22 Jun 22, 2016 1:21 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Jun 22, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    Regarding the hot Shenzhen market, it appears that the Qianhai District is where prices are sky rocketing. The NTP land is in the Bao'an, the district next door and just outside the Special Enterprise Zone(SEZ). The Ba'on District has been an industrial area populated with electronics factories. It is just now beginning to convert to a commercial/residential district. It shouldn't be too long before NTP is incorporated into the SEZ which would significantly increase the land value. However, the question is whether that will happen before the bubble bursts.

    As mentioned in another post on another thread, a cynic might wonder if NTP is lowballing the valuations in order to seek a cheap buyout and go private. I'm not too worried about that, but who knows ?

  • Reply to

    Land value updates

    by koyak23 Jun 16, 2016 7:36 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Jun 22, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    The share ownership as it pertains to Kellogg and IAT has been confusing. I contacted investor relations last year and this is the way it was explained to me. although it appeared that Kellogg owned around 7 million shares and IAT owned another 6 million or so shares, it was actually the case that of the 7 million shares Kellogg owned the vast majority of those shares were actually the IAT shares which Kellogg held as a "beneficial owner". Keep in mind that Peter Kellogg is IAT.

    So, I'm guessing that the 400,000 shares held by IAT according to Yahoo(instead of 6 million) means that the ownership status has changed for Kellogg and that he is no longer claiming beneficial ownership of the IAT shares,but continues to personally own around 7 million shares.

  • Reply to

    Land value updates

    by koyak23 Jun 16, 2016 7:36 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Jun 22, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    I could be wrong, but I'm guessing that the land value increase has lagged because it lies in the Bao'an District which remains outside the SEZ (although the SEZ boundaries have been expanding and will eventually "capture" Bao'an).

  • Reply to

    Land value updates

    by koyak23 Jun 16, 2016 7:36 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 Jun 22, 2016 7:59 AM Flag

    It looks like the land value has increased 15% since last July. My $13.64 share price is merely raw land+cash. If you take into account other listed assets minus liabilities then the price comes in around $15/share. With all the permits in place and ready to break ground, I would think that a healthy premium could be attached to that share price.

    I hold 12,000 shares.My sell out price has been $20/share and after reading the latest WSJ articles, that doesn't seem to be an unreasonable price. Koo and Kellogg are in their mid-70s. Do they really want to be holding this property for another 5 or 6 years and risk getting caught in a bursting housing bubble ? The time to sell is now if they can find a buyer.

  • I just did a quick scan of the new land value evaluations. DTZ places a 290 million value on the land plus the Wuxi plant. JLL values the land and the Wuxi plant at 279 million. It looks like Savills did a separate assessment of the Wuxi plant as an addendum. If so then the their assessment would total 313 million. If the Wuxi plant was not an addendum then the land value would be 280 million.

    So the share value of the undeveloped land +the Wuxi plant would be in the neighborhood of $8/share. The cash on hand as of 3/31/16 was 207 million or $5.64/share.

    So a fair market price based upon cash and the land assessments would be around $13.64/share.

  • Reply to

    Predictions?

    by joeporta May 3, 2016 11:28 AM
    koyak23 koyak23 May 6, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    The only advantage is a lower price per share attracts small retail investors...

  • Reply to

    Buildings should be complete by 2022

    by gman1976805 Apr 25, 2016 12:47 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Apr 26, 2016 7:35 AM Flag

    It doesn't explicitly say the completion date for the "Park" is 2019.

    However,in the past, NTP has said that the Gushu property ("City ") would be developed after the Guangming property("Park"). I am assuming that the "Park" property development will end in 2019 and then the "City" property development will begin.

    But this just an assumption and I could be wrong. Perhaps the 2nd phase of "Park" and the "City" will be developed simultaneously and not step by step,one after the other.

  • Reply to

    Buildings should be complete by 2022

    by gman1976805 Apr 25, 2016 12:47 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Apr 25, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    Completion date for phase 1 and phase 2 of the "Park" property is 2019. Completion date for the "City" property is 2022.

    I will be interested to see what the new property valuation assessments will be in light of the recent spike in real estate. I also continue to hold out hope for a buyout of the project sooner rather than later.

  • Reply to

    CEO MK Koo exercises options on 9/15

    by doodleysquat69 Sep 16, 2015 3:47 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Apr 18, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    It is now April and the earnings report will be out next week. Perhaps it will provide some insight as to why Mr. Koo bought 600,000 shares at the above market price.

  • Reply to

    Comments on Q4 results

    by queen_anne_22 Feb 6, 2016 2:18 PM
    koyak23 koyak23 Apr 6, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    I think so...

    I haven't recalculated the values of the three assessments since the devaluation of the Yuan, but at the time the low assessment was 224 million and the high was 297 million.

    Take the average of 260 million and that works out to about $7/share. Add in another $5/share or so in cash and other assets and you have a $12 stock without the 50% property value increase or any development of the property... basically cash and raw land. Assuming the land has appreciated by 50%, then you have a stock worth almost $16/share before development of the land.

    I've held this stock since 2006. My exit number is $20/share.

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