Island - I was watching action also. Either shorts are covering or some other institutions are moving in to trap them as visibility in chicken supply and grain prices into the future are clearing up. I think we are locked and loaded for a big move into the Fourth of July, with or without short covering.
Stephens analyst reiterated yesterday that PPC was their top pick in the food category and a 36 dollar price target.
Roy we have had a bunch of shorts on here recently using aliases and having idiot conversations with themselves. Talking about other stocks and goofy #$%$.
I noticed you have only one post SO I will just assume you are a short changing names to add more idiotic posts on the board.
They had to or they would have had their heads ripped off. Stock higher (counting dividend) than when special dividend was announced. So we went up in price and shorts had to increase 18%. We will have over a month of short covering ONLY as soon as volume settles back down.
This is getting very interesting.
the earnings call is on the 24th at 10 central for SAFM.
rocket- as soon as the special dividend news hit I think SAFM became a much greater likelihood for PPC to purchase size wise. I think there is a line of thinking that says the justice department allows one more big chicken company purchase. That is industry wide.
Talked with old chicken exec who said the market for chicken is TIGHT.
Catching a draft off of PPC. Up 5.35% today. It reports earnings next week on the 24th. Should be good and that number wont hurt PPC.
By my calculation the bulk of shorts are at roughly 22.25 (28-5.77). This is turning back into a problem for them. I think PPC year has already been made. This next quarter the comps are still easy to beat. Shorts will have to hope that meeting last years numbers in third and fourth quarter this year will take down stock. I just don't see it. If the PE ratio was 100 - yes it would. With a PE ratio of around 10 - good luck with that.
For newbies to the stock I am referring to the pre dividend average short price of 28 in October-November when the short interest exploded. To simplify 28 - 5.77 (dividend) = 22.23 is the rough ave for shorts using the post dividend stock price. The shorts will be break even in the trade around that price.
Rocket I love your posts bro but if you look at the short activity I think a reasonable conclusion is that the bulk of the shorts are at 28. So not taking into account any option activity or short term trading IMO the shorts are underwater 26.75 + 5.77 = 32.52 - 28 = 4.52 per share for a loss to date of 30 million * 4.52 = 135,600,000. They are getting baked IMO to the tune of 135 million.
And we all know if they had to get out it would cost a whale of a lot more to close out the position. A minimum of a 5$ spike to cover IMO. It is a god awful trade today for the shorts.
If you have any more questions on the dividend you are either short or a moron or both. This subject has been covered ad nauseum.
IF YOU HELD THE STOCK ON THE 27TH YOU GET THE DIVIDEND. IF YOU WERE SHORT ON THE 27TH YOU OWE THE DIVIDEND. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.
30.2 million are still short as of January 30 which was mentioned is ten days to cover. However as volume recedes the days to cover may go back up to the 23 days to cover range where it has been previously with 30 million short. Even though some shorts covered today (guessing) the prior 11 days I bet more shorts piled in to help drive it down. They did a good job of trapping those who came into PPC to get the dividend and then made them pay. Today was the last best day for shorts to cover for awhile without the stock zooming. Can't wait to see the next short number in two weeks. I know generally folks think it is bullish when the short interest recedes but I am of the opinion I don't want them escaping without paying dearly. They are the rocket fuel.
Can you imagine where this stock would be if they hadn't sold thirty million shares they didn't own? At an average share day closer to one million that is almost a full month of short covering ONLY. This chicken cycle trade has been easier in years past to short. With beef high, more people eating protein, grains low etc. I think they miscalculated the duration and strength of this cycle. They jumped the gun and are under water. Time will tell. We will see the final tally when the bulk of the shorts have cleared out.
Closing positive after the spike down was a key reversal. If shorts didn't cover today - good luck. My guess is a good bit of the 7 million was covering but I hope not. Next two short updates will be very interesting. Stock is at 31.75 counting the dividend. The shorts are still underwater on core position by about 3.75. Today was their chance to break the stock. Didn't happen.
Dividend checks will be hitting accounts soon giving everyone about 20% more buying power.
Conference call was really strong. Should go a long way to putting the supply concerns behind us.
To be clear Pilgrim's Pride Corporation is expected* to report earnings on 02/11/2015 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Dec 2014. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 2 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.72. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.55. The call is at eight central the next morning.
Every long should put a sell order in on your PPC stock - even if you don't want to sell. Put it GTC to sell at 100 etc. When there is a sell order in on the stock no shorts can borrow it to short it. It is already hard to borrow. With the enormous short interest already we can give ourselves the best chance of a squeeze.
No idea. All chicken news is fantastic at least into 2016. Talked with folks who said egg sets were a little stronger than they thought they'd be in January (3%) And weights were up (3-4%) but demand was STILL outstripping supply and chicken prices were rising. Saw nothing on horizon to worry about (and he is paid to worry). Said it is a great time to be in the chicken business and smiled a big smile.
Think Safm should catch an updraft from PPC earnings.