PCism provides a good example of the limits of freedom of speech and just how 'open' our society really is. Enter a packed room and openly question whether the holocaust took place, using fact-based arguments, see the torrent of angry abuse you'll suffer. No need for an official thought police when you can indoctrinate the entire populace to serve the purpose. The education system is a great means of achieving this. Then again, it might prove destabilizing to force the heavy burden of independent thought upon the average working joe, it's best to leave them pliable instruments of official national policy, feed them newspaper headlines and simple truths to keep their world orderly and understandable. We might need these folk for meat shields in any future conflict after all.
buchanan has presented his calculations, full citations, conclusions. You call him out on it, claim he's wrong, but you have yet to provide a counter analysis. You are a troll who is bored and wants attention.
Stick to trading and leave fundamentals alone, it's not your strong suit. It was embarrassing to see you slink around the issue of dilution today, claiming it never took place. You obviously never really looked into it. Why would you? You only entered NBG for a swing trade, dilution wouldn't make any difference to you for a swing trade.
I imagine this is why you prefer trading ETFs. Research requirements are minimal if any. You can open your charts, spot some oversold conditions and jump in for a quick 5 - 10% return. Some of us here are investors who research the companies we invest into. We find it obnoxious to deal with a trader who hasn't put in even minimal research on the company that we have researched extensively, yet trolls as if he is an expert upon that same company.
You're here all day every day doing this. Why not discuss technicals, something you might know something about. At least you'd provide some benefit to the board. As it is you drag people into longwinded pointless arguments day in day out, in troll fashion, without ever providing any analysis of your own - technical or fundamental. You don't even provide humour in any of your posts and most of your posts are so poorly written they are a chore just to read and decipher.
Is retirement really that boring for you? I have an excuse for being here constantly, my job has me in front of a computer. I'd feel pretty lame if I were retired and spent my days on here trolling people for kicks.
My advice? If you're going to be on this board try to contribute something -anything - or try to take part in discussions with people and allow yourself to learn from those whose skills are superior to your own. You're a waste of time otherwise, to yourself and to others.
buchanan made statements, showed calculations. You asked questions in a wall of text. Perhaps if you would like to refute buchanans STATEMENTS and CALCULATIONS you should provide some of your own instead of using the diversionary tactic of a string of questions.
(have to use other nick, deleted to edit and thinks it's a repeat post under the other nick).
Russian companies have about 700 billion in loans from the West. Similarly, Western companies have hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investments in Russia and Europe relies on Russia for energy needs.
There's a lot of entwinement between the economies of Russia and Europe specifically, but also between the US and Russia. Any economic sanctions upon Russia would lead to tit for tat sanctions.
It would lead to economic pain for both sides and no one in Europe especially has any appetite for that after just having barely clawed their way out of a historically painful deep recession.
Russia has strong ties with China and will simply shift their focus to China, Russia has long wanted to get off the greenback anyhow.
Finally, sanctions simply don't work, not when your economy is based upon exporting energy. There will always be buyers for energy and it's one thing to sanction Iran, quite another to sanction Russia.
Expect some token visa bans and some boycotts of G8 meetings and other trivial things. Not to discount the possibility of more severe sanctions, quite possible, but if that takes place then you're going to see the Western stock markets crash along with Russia's, if Russia decides to refuse to pay back those massive loans to US and European companies or stop gas shipments to Europe or nationalize Western companies operating in Russia (they've already passed a bill which would allow them to do so).
I don't really trust Ycharts, they don't double check the info they post.
I obtained that peak market cap figure via two methods/two sources.
First source was an SEC filing for ALPHA AT, from the year 2007. I used the exchange rate at the time, the outstanding shares at the time, and converted it into USD.
The second source was a Brand Finance pdf from Jan 2008, which has market caps for all the largest banks for that date.
In both cases they arrive at approx the same figure.
hide DOOOTmySLAASHH 24E
(use Ctrl plus sign (+) to increase size - formatting is ugly, but the facts are all correct with urls to confirm the screencaps)
buchanan: I think we may be coming at this from different angles, but arriving at similar conclusions. Your method is valid but it can be harder for the average person to grasp the numbers, this is why I'm giving some preference to a direct market cap comparison, something which I think even billiosi could grasp.
Ignoring the Emporiki deal...
Dec 31 2007 Alpha's peak market cap was 14.946B usd (I was incorrect the other day in saying 9.3B, was confusing it, had to find the page again to confirm)
hide DOOOTmySLAASHH BWc
Today it's 11.36B usd
Today's share price is $0.26 usd
As share price multiplied by number of shares determines market cap, it would be accurate to divide current share price by current market cap and then multiply by previous market cap to arrive at a theoretical peak recovery-scenario share price.
This would only be a means of determining share price and independent of the fundamentals of the business itself, so it has it's limitations, as industries/companies can demand higher share price multiples at different periods of times. ie. A bank in favour might demand a P/E of 12, while another similar bank that has fallen out of favour or suffers investor mistrust might only demand a P/E of 6.
In this instance: (0.26 / 11.36B) * 14.94B = $0.34
This kind of confirms what you are saying about "recovery already baked in", because even though this ignores fundamentals completely, by going off share price (which at least loosely is tied to fundamentals), we can still see how the price is far too high vs historical valuations, given the current state of the bank and Greece's economy.
Alpha is a larger bank now though, so I think it deserves a higher market cap. Determining the size of and contribution of value Emporiki might add would be challenging however. This is why I used the Berenberg graph which shows an approx. doubling of market share pre- and post-Emporiki acquisition to create a rough estimate.
Hope this makes sense.
A bank stock within Greece that has been bailed out and is in an economy whose 'growth' is actually a recovery back to a prior state of prosperity, will have its potential upside relatively accurately judged through a direct comparison with its pre-recessionary peak valuation.
hide DOOOTmySLAASHH V0D
To my mind, the risk/reward here, especially when given the 10+ year time horizon for Greece to ever recover to it's pre-recessionary peak, is extremely unattractive (approx. 266%)
(Please use the urls provided in the above and go to the original sources to do your own calculations and draw your own conclusions -- I've shown how I arrived at my numbers and where I obtained the information [official SEC/NBG IR pages] and threw in the Brand Finance page from a Jan 2008 pdf that confirms within a margin of error of a few million (insignificant) that the calculations add up.)
P.S. If you want a stock with high potential, you also have to take on real risks. Russian and Chinese banks are not without their risks and I don't want to mislead anyone on that notion. A lot of the risk is however baked into the share price, which is what Buffet calls the 'margin of safety'. When worst case scenarios are priced into a stock, any scenario which shows the pessimism as irrational, results in rapid share price appreciation.
You people with NBG on the other hand, have a stock priced for the most optimistic, rosy of scenarios. This means you have zero margin of safety, rather, a high level of risk. Any holes which appear in the thesis of the most optimistic of scenarios can shatter share price. You are effectively standing upon a ledge.
This is the basis behind Buffets above quote in the preceding post. If you are buying NBG because you have 100% faith that "Germany and the EU won't let Greece fail, and this bank is too big to fail", then you can be 100% certain that everyone else has the exact same idea as you. This optimistic best case scenario is baked into the share price, which is why fundamentally NBG is a very expensive stock. Any cracks which appear in this optimistic thesis will have share price tumbling off a cliff.
As it stands, the upside will always be limited on NBG due to so much optimism and greed being baked into the share price already, while the risks will be substantial, especially in the medium term (1 - 5 year) time frame. If you have the patience to wait around for 10 years, you may eventually make some money, but don't expect giant gains here. Upside is capped to about $11/share. This will be significantly reduced should Finansbank be sold. If that takes place, max upside will adjust downward to possibly as low as $7.
Strange, that wasn't even me applying all those down thumbs (for once). Someone didn't like your question I suppose. Why? This is curious..
Remember that famous Warren Buffet quote "be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy"?
Remember how you all ended up ignoring it? You felt greed and zero fear when you purchased your NBG stock, thinking you were outsmarting the market, not cognizant of the fact that others had the same idea alongside you. You didn't notice that there was a crowd who had arrived before you and that you were buying into a mania, one fuelled by greed and not fear?
Now, here is an example of what Buffet actually meant. What Buffet meant is found in a further quote of his "fear is the friend of the fundamentalist the foe of the fadist". Buy into fear when it does not compromise the underlying fundamentals of the company you are buying, when it is irrational. That is the only situation in which "be greedy when others are afraid" is relevant.
Example: I sold on a recent dead cat bounce (greed!), and I'm now watching as events unfold in the Ukraine (fear!), which is knocking my already cheap Russian bank (fear!) down even cheaper by fundamentals.
"“The market is really afraid because it doesn’t understand what’s going on,” Vadim Bit-Avragim, who helps oversee about $4.2 billion at Kapital Asset Management in Moscow, said by phone today. “All investors are pricing in the possibility of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine."
This is the way to apply WB's wisdom, and *not* by chasing a hot name like NBG. As buchanan has pointed out, ever since investors achieved big gains off bailed out banks, fear has left the market, greed has been priced into bank stocks of these developed country banks. Don't flatter yourself in thinking you are smarter than the multitude, you are not, you bought NBG because you perceived it as risk free, and high upside (greed). Others did too.
Where are cheap bank stocks? Emerging markets, primarily China, Russia. These are where bargains still exist, but you have to have conviction in your fundamentals and a stomach for volatility.
Anyone following these price targets will recall that just a week ago the High was at $9. Quite a downgrade, but must be reflecting the dilution which is on the horizon.
9) Does not know how to read a Yahoo chart by his own admission (has had to ask buchanan for help with that one).
10) A prior post has him confusing preferred shares with common shares.
Will update this list as required.
The J.w.s exploited the fall of the USSR as well; vulture zionism, parasitically feeding off the life blood of their host country. Dirty dealings allowed the most valuable assets of the USSR to be sold off for kopecks to these exploiters.
This list tells it all: hide DOOOOTTmySLAASHH bME
Putin's reversal, imprisonment, and exiling of many of these J.w.s.h Oligarchs has put a target on his back in Western media, which as anyone knows, is largely in the pocket of J.w.s.h interests.
Repost: fp had made a correction I had missed in the original thread.
*** I asked:
red.tsar • 1 hour 28 minutes ago
fp718591: Perhaps you can clarify your position instead of asking a string of multiple questions.
According to NBG chart the peak of NBG (reverse split adjusted) is around $687, in December 2007.
According to your analysis, do you feel that NBG share price, assuming full recovery, can reach back to that same price level?
Your answer will really help determine whether you are worth listening to at all in the future, or whether you are simply running your mouth. Let's see how much you have actually researched this stock. Tell the board what the peak share price would be for NBG assuming a full recovery.
I'm throwing the gauntlet down here, it's your chance to amaze and impress us.
*** fp718591 responded:
fp718591 • 2 minutes 40 seconds ago
IRE was at a 190 reverse splits adjusted, I sold at 12.80, do you think I would have sold if I knew they could reach 190 again? I don't play games like this as you might think these types of questions are appropriate. Regarding the multiple questions I have asked, it is useful information in regards to what happen to NBG and seems like no one wants to figure out the true dilution. Heres something simple to study. if the high in IRE was 190 after adjusted split of 10 to 1 the shares were at 1.90 giving the investor 1 share for every 10, that investor would have to wait until the stock goes to 19 dollars a share to break even and anything after that is profit, today its over 21 a share. Do the same with NBG as I just did with IRE, its simple math. Just bought FSLR after hours for 51.66, it missed earnings big time, ut investors know with the winter we had it was expected. Bought SCTY yesterday after hours at 77.20 and sold today at 81.80 go and check FSLR out and we will see if that pops tomorrow.
fp718591 • 34 minutes ago
I meant 19 not 1,90
Oh snap. I can envision it. Bill Idiocy will be crashing the doors to get a piece of that action. He loves NBG and all of the abuse they continually dish out to him.
He goes under other nicknames such as usicktroll1 and usicktroll2 and variants upon the cybercash theme.
Check out some the high degree of mental instability and chatroom addiction this character suffers from:
1448 posts | Last Activity: 5 minutes ago
Member since: Feb 7, 2014
Even under his nickname here he has an enormous posting history and is online all day, stalking other people on these boards like a psycho.
2916 posts | Last Activity: 2 hours 21 minutes ago
Member since: Sep 28, 2006
I see you cybercash28, or rather should I say usicktroll2.
cybercash28 is a very disturbed individual. Check him out under other guises:
Even under this nickname he exposes a high level of chat board addiction.
30915 posts | Last Activity: 2 hours 16 minutes ago
Member since: Sep 28, 2006
Candidate for suicide.
Since turning bear the personal attacks upon me are nonstop. I've only adapted to this new paradigm by returning the favour in kind. I don't short stocks and I could of course simply stop coming to this board, but after having invested myself heavily into researching this company, and then to observe longs continue to ignore factual posts, preferring coercion and peer pressure in an attempt to create an echo chamber of pump, it's almost become a sticking point for me to continue posting here, contradicting the onslaught of lies and spin that is a recurring reality upon this board.
Some people's hobby is to watch birds with binoculars or to collect stamps, mine has apparently evolved to become refuting lies on the NBG messageboard. It brings me some small feeling of satisfaction.
Of course it may appear that I have become hyperpolarized myself, but the reality is, when this stock becomes investible again I will be the first one to cheer it on. I do not however see this happening any time soon, not with this additional dilution which is likely to occur in coming months.
Oh don't worry about it, it was just a photo, must have been removed or something.