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KIT digital, Inc. Message Board

ksn_44 190 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Do you sell or keep for now LEJU shares?

    by babbeo6 Jan 26, 2015 10:49 AM

    Have you seen the Shanghai Real Estate Index which includes alot of the mainland developers? It is up 75% in the past 12 months.

  • Reply to

    FAIL TO DELIVER

    by yeewong168 Jan 22, 2015 10:55 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 26, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    What pray tell are you talking about??

  • Reply to

    Why is it going down if gold is down?

    by philly_long Jan 26, 2015 3:39 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 26, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    I can't. But I was getting ready to ask the same question. Conversely, are there ever days where gold soars and JDST goes up??

  • Reply to

    Do you sell or keep for now LEJU shares?

    by babbeo6 Jan 26, 2015 10:49 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 26, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    speed, "firmly established downtrend" could be the understatement of the year. I think single digits for LEJU is a gimme. Course, what do I know, I own this stock, how smart can I be.

  • Reply to

    see 7.77 today

    by againstthecrowd Jan 26, 2015 6:27 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 26, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    i don't know who you are but i love your optimism

  • JJC
    Goldman gives in on mined commodities
    "The primary reason for the changes to our forecasts is cost deflation," says the team, noting "actual and anticipated U.S. dollar strength, cheaper energy and other input costs and our expectation of an improvement in mining productivity."The bank cut its expectations for metals and mined raw materials over the next three years by between 10 and 20 percent.Bearish on copper even after a 20% decline over the last year, Goldman cuts its forecast for this year to $5,542 per metric ton from $6,400.Facing a sustained period of oversupply, iron ore is now seen averaging $66 per ton vs. $80 previously. Gold's forecast is trimmed to $1,089 per ounce from $1,200.

  • Reply to

    LEJU shares @ 11.57

    by babbeo6 Jan 21, 2015 9:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 21, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    I had already looked, no not there. Just sent etrade a blistering email but to change brokers is an eternal nightmare. IR just emailed me again said they may not even be there IMMEDIATELY on the 26th may take another half day or even till the next day.

  • Reply to

    LEJU shares @ 11.57

    by babbeo6 Jan 21, 2015 9:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 21, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    So TD Ameritrade accepts the share even though they have not been delivered. Wow. This is a shocking departure from Etrade. Etrade will not take the responsibility.

  • Reply to

    LEJU shares @ 11.57

    by babbeo6 Jan 21, 2015 9:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 21, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    You are kidding me? I got a letter from IR indicating that JP Morgan was holding the shares and not releasing them until 1/26, perhaps even 1/27. I can paste the letter if need be.

    Who is your broker? Whomever it is, I have to switch, ETRADE does not have mine and I have not expected them due to the JP Morgan letter.

  • Reply to

    LEJU shares @ 11.57

    by babbeo6 Jan 21, 2015 9:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 21, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Should be 11.39 right? The price at the close on 1/15.

    JPM still has the shares according to IR. Are you saying you got yours?

  • Number 1...they are just stating the facts
    Number 2...perhaps, just perhaps, they are hinting of the very positive impact on their own company's numbers

    ************************************************************************************************

    National home sales in December recorded a surge over the previous month, wrapping up 2014 with the second-highest sales volume in years.

    Deducing from monthly aggregate data of the National Bureau of Statistics, home sales in December rose 41.7 percent by floor area from November. By value, sales rose 41.4 percent month-on-month.

    These were extraordinary figures considering that in July, at the trough of the housing market, sales slumped 32 percent from June and the absolute sold volume was just 6.8 percent of the December figure.

    Behind this dramatic turnaround was a slew of stimulus policies, including a move by the central bank to ease mortgage restrictions on Sept 30 and cut interest rates on Nov 21.

    Sales have steadily picked up since October, and by November sales rose 14.8 percent month-on-month. Even that increase was dwarfed by December's growth.

    The explosive growth at year-end has pushed annual home sales to 1.05 billion square meters, down 9.1 percent from 2013 but larger than in 2011 and 2012. That surprised many analysts as they held a pessimistic outlook on the property market even after the stimulus policies.

    "Amid the downturn in the middle of the year, there was a pervasive saying that China's housing market has moved from the 'golden era' to the 'silver era'. But what the data showed is that sales were actually better than 2011 and 2012," said Ding Zuyu, executive president of E-House (China) Holdings Ltd.

    Yan Yuejin, an analyst with E-House, said a big reason for the boom was that many developers sought to post a good full-year performance, which prompted them to boost sales with lower prices. The unleashing of pent-up demand amid a changing outlook was another reason.

  • Fairly good, so I think it is safe to assume very obviously there is something much more sinister occurring behind the scenes with SFUN EJ and LEJU

    *********************************************************************************************************

    The secondary home markets in Beijing and Shanghai, the mainland's two most important cities, wrapped up with further signs of stabilisation in both prices and transactions last month, according to the SCMP-CTC index.

    Prices for used homes in Beijing rose for the fourth consecutive month by 0.5 per cent from November, to 41,529 yuan (HK$52,412) per square metre. But it was 3.4 per cent lower than the same period in 2013.

    In Shanghai, prices remained largely unchanged at 34,269 yuan per square metre, versus November's 34,264 yuan per square metre, marking its third consecutive month of positive changes, after falling from July to September. However, it was 1.54 per cent higher than in December 2013.

    As a result, the SCMP-CTC secondary home price index remained unchanged at 158 in Beijing and 142 in Shanghai.Meanwhile, policy relaxation and higher government efficiency in approving property deals towards the end of the year helped boost transactions, which grew 30.6 per cent month on month in December to 16,160 units in Beijing and were up 0.82 per cent to 22,063 in Shanghai. They were, respectively, 24.8 per cent and 8.3 per cent higher compared with a year earlier.

    "The explosive growth in December led many people to think that this round of property market correction has bottomed out," said mainland consultancy Century 21 China Real Estate (CTC), the South China Morning Post's partner for the monthly index. "However, we think it remains to be seen whether the market will post stable development afterwards," CTC said, adding transactions could moderate during the Lunar New Year, which will fall in February.

    For the whole of 2014, transactions of used homes slumped 35 per cent from 2013 in Beijing to 102,701 homes and slid 37 per cent in Shanghai to 196,296 units.

  • Seems to be no barriers to entry. Not quite sure how devastating this would be, but perhaps this is a major issue for EJ LEJU

    **********************************************************************************************************

    Finding a comfortable and affordable place to live can be quite stressful, navigating through endless house listings, phone calls, and countless viewings. However, the Internet has revolutionized the housing market with strong search engines and databases that can filter housing options in dozens of ways to make house hunting easier. After relocating to Shanghai less than a week ago, Liu Yajuan has already found a nice flat in the city center. Although she is not familiar with the city, she said this house hunting experience was much more efficient and easier than previous ones.

    What made it different was iwjw, a mobile phone app that collects and publishes rental housing information across Shanghai. Users can filter housing options in dozens of ways and arrange house viewing appointments at the touch of a button.

    Previously, house hunters relied on real estate agencies — the gatekeepers to rental housing information on the market. But with new technology, they can now access those choices on a wider scale without visiting multiple agencies.

    The Internet has revolutionized the Shanghai housing market with a reliable search engine and database. But before iwjw, house hunting websites or apps were mostly sorted by agencies, which may cause information overlapping and lack of unified management.

    Since its launch in July 2014, the app has occupied about 29 percent of the rental housing market in Shanghai in just four months, becoming the top resource in the industry. It currently covers Shanghai and Beijing.

    A number of traditional real estate agencies are starting to launch their own websites and apps. Experts said this trend will reshape the housing rental and sales market in the future.

  • China’s new-home sales jumped last month after the first interest rate cut since 2012 boosted demand and developers made more apartments available to tap improving sentiment in the nation’s property market.

    Housing sales surged 41 percent to 938.4 billion yuan ($151 billion) from November and were 4.2 percent higher than a year earlier, making December the first year-on-year increase in 12 months, according to Bloomberg News calculations based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today.

    Home sales recovered after the central bank cut interest rates in November and eased curbs in an industry that had become a drag on growth. The rebound, which Barclays Plc said would signal the bottom of the property market and serve as a “powerful catalyst” for a recovery, came one month earlier than anticipated, according to the bank’s analyst Alvin Wong.

    December’s sales numbers sent “a faster-than-expected signal of the sales recovery,” said Hong Kong-based Wong. “Some cities may start to see some price rise but overall price outlook is just stable.”

    Developers added new apartments for sale at a faster pace last month to clear inventories, after the government lowered borrowing costs and eased mortgage restrictions, the statistics bureau said in a Jan. 18 statement. Twelve of 30 developers tracked by Barclays failed to meet their sales targets last year, with Gemdale Corp. achieving only 82 percent of its plans, according to a Jan. 12 report.

  • Reply to

    Still no LEJU shares on account

    by babbeo6 Jan 20, 2015 9:33 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 20, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    January 26. As I said, JPM is holding them for 11 days. Why on earth I have no idea. I blistered EJ IR about it but they have not responded. So next Monday. Seems a crime.

  • Add more input......not that it matters to our stock price here which ultimately is what ONLY matters to us investors.....

    **********************************************************************************************

    Kuang Xianming, director of the research center for economy under the China Institute For Reform and Development, said that downward pressure has remained in China's property sector based on December's figures. However, some changes, though minor, should not be ignored, he said.

    "Analyzing the market based on price changes, the market has largely maintained a similar trend as seen in November. But if this situation continues, and especially when prices start to recover in some cities, we might be able to conclude that home prices in Chinese cities are bottoming out," Kuang said.

  • Shenzhen recorded higher new-home prices in December, the first city tracked by the Chinese government to post an increase in four months, after the first interest rate cut since 2012 boosted demand.

    New-home prices in the southern city bordering Hong Kong jumped 1.2 percent from November, the first gain since a 0.2 percent increase in April. Prices fell in 65 of the 70 cities monitored and were unchanged in four, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement yesterday. That compares with declines in 67 cities in November.

    Housing sales rebounded in major cities last month after the central bank in November trimmed borrowing costs and eased curbs on an industry that had become a drag on the nation’s slowing economy, unleashing demand from homebuyers. If the momentum is maintained, nationwide home sales may have the first annual increase in 12 months in January, signaling the bottom of the market, according to Barclays Plc.

    “In terms of the trend, no doubt home price declines are slowing” as increased sales stabilize prices, Jinsong Du, a Credit Suisse Group AG Hong Kong-based analyst, said by phone. Still, while price gains are possible in other individual cities in coming months, “we don’t see that happening in a lot of cities again.”

    Prices in Beijing and Guangzhou fell 0.2 percent from the previous month, while dropping 0.3 percent in Shanghai, according to yesterday’s data. The three cities and Shenzhen, known as “first-tier,” are considered to have the strongest housing demand and still maintain home-purchase restrictions after most other cities eased or scrapped such curbs last year.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jan 19, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    This analyst has a different take, however...keep in mind that saying "the number of homebuyers will decrease" has to be taken with a grain of salt. The country has 1.5 billion frickin people

    ***********************************************************************************************

    Xie Yifeng, an expert with the National Real Estate Manager Alliance, forecast that both home sales volume and prices will pick up in 2015, with first-tier cities leading the recovery.

    "But the real estate industry still faces three main risks: high inventories of unsold apartments, high costs of acquiring land and high borrowing costs," he told the Global Times on Sunday.

    The average price of land for residential homes was 5,277 yuan ($850) per square meter in the fourth quarter of 2014, up 0.69 percent from the previous quarter, data from the Ministry of Land and Resources showed on Thursday.

    Others are less optimistic, saying the housing market in China will remain weak in 2015 because of slower economic growth, excess housing supply, and banks' reluctance to lend to developers.

    "The fundamentals of the property market have not changed. In most cities, reducing inventories remains the main task for local property markets this year," Zhang Hongwei, research director at Shanghai-based property consultancy ToSpur, said in a research note on Sunday.

    Chinese property developers need about three years to clear inventories of unsold apartments, according to an estimate by the Shenzhen World Union Properties Consultancy.

    China's real estate market is not likely to repeat the explosive growth seen in previous years, citing Mao Daqing, executive vice president at China Vanke Co, the country's largest residential developer in terms of sales.

    The number of potential home buyers will also decrease as China's population is projected to peak, Mao said, adding that the pace of urbanization is slowing and there are still large inventories of unsold homes

  • Summary..................
    Prices up in 1st Tier cities
    Volume up overall in Dec over November
    Prices declined MOM, but the pricing decline slowed MOM
    4th month in a row price decline slowed
    Inventory work off will take time stunting major price growth

    **********************************************************************************************

    New home sales in 70 major cities recorded the highest month-on-month growth of 2014 in December, boosted by the central bank's interest rate cut and property developers' year-end promotions, a statistics official said Sunday.

    The sales volume of new homes rose by nearly 9 percent in December from November, mainly due to adjustments in mortgage policies, the cut in interest rates and developers' efforts to reduce their inventories, Liu Jianwei, a senior statistician with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said in a statement posted on the bureau's website.

    Sales of new homes in four top-tier cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - all rose by more than 15 percent month-on-month in December, higher than the average level in the 70 major cities, according to Liu.

    In terms of prices, fewer cities saw a fall last month. Of the 70 large and medium-sized cities monitored by the NBS, 66 cities saw new home prices drop in December from the previous month, down from 67 cities in November.

    Home prices in three cities - Zhengzhou, Wuhan and Ganzhou - were unchanged in December. Shenzhen was the only one among the 70 cities that saw a rise in prices, with a 1.2 percent increase in December month-on-month, according to the NBS.

    Liu said the extent of the decline in home prices had also narrowed. The average prices of new homes and existing homes in the 70 cities fell by 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent on a monthly basis in December, down from 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent in November, according to Liu.

    "China's property market is on the path to recovery," Yan Yuejin, a researcher with Shanghai-based E-House China R&D Institute, told the Global Times Sunday.

    "Existing home prices in the four top-tier cities all gained on a monthly basis in December, also signaling the improved market sentiment," Yan said.

    China's once-heated real estate market has slowed down since early 2014, pushing many cities to relax property curbs in the second half of the year to revive the market.

    "Home prices have showed signs of differentiation," Liu said, with the average home prices in first-tier cities witnessing month-on-month gains while lower-tier cities are still seeing drops in home prices, but at a slower pace.

  • reading this article.....

    **************************************************************************

    Commercial property business is not as profitable as it used to be in the previous years, but there is still some opportunity for Vanke, Hui Jianqiang, research director with real estate information provider Beijing Zhongfangyanxie Technology Service, told the Global Times Monday.

    The total transaction revenue of the Chinese commercial property market stood at 106 billion yuan in 2014, down 27 percent from 2013, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Thursday, citing a research report from real estate consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.

    Vanke started building commercial property, such as shopping markets, as part of its residential communities three years ago, and it may continue the trend, Hui said.

    Li agreed with Hui and said that Vanke's combination of commercial realty with residential communities reduces its exposure to the problems faced by the off-line retail sector under the impact of e-commerce boom.

    "The risk could be less than that of Wanda Plaza," said Li, noting Wanda has commercial properties in downtown areas which are hit by the slump in the retail industry.

    There is an oversupply of commercial properties in city centers, while a growing number of people are moving to suburbs which offer a new potential market, according to Hui.

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