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ksn_44 106 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2015 2:10 PM Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • The June price rise MOM in new homes is providing zilch to LEJU SFUN EJ. I doubt even if LEJU SFUN EJ have blow away quarterly numbers when they report next month we will see much price movement.

    So the question becomes, do you want to let your money sit for the next 6-9 months till the buyout closes, or do you think you can make better than 9% on your own?

    OTOH, if Shanghai blows up as it is starting to do, does Zhou retract the offer and subsequently EJ moves into the 5's or even 4's? 7.38 might look golden then.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 1, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    53 cities up, 46 down and 1 flat. 15 cities saw prices rise more than 1%. Number of cities falling more than 1% fell to 12.

    Here is your bifurcation headline number: the median new home price increased 1.03% in June.

    The bottom cities were not no names. Rizhao, Jinan (both in Qingdao), Kunming, Urumqi, Sanya were among the cities with the largest price declines.

    Among the winners that aren’t top 10 cities: Lanzhou, Baoding, Kunshan and Xiamen.

    Shenzhen is still blowing away the competition, up 6.58% in June. It is now pricier than Shanghai. Existing home prices in Shenzhen increased 8.6% in June. Shenzhen home prices are up 13.7% over last year.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 9:36 PM Flag

    OK, here we have YOY. I think another two months and YOY prices will be increasing.

    On a year-on-year basis, house prices fell 2.7 percent last month compared with a decline of 3.73 percent in May, the academy said.
    The average price in China’s top 10 cities was 19,357 yuan per square meter, down 0.82 percent from a year earlier — slowing sharply from a fall of 2.33 percent in May.

  • CHINA’S new home prices increased in June for the second straight month, a survey showed yesterday, as official stimulus policies helped boost the market.

    The average price of a new home in China’s 100 major cities rose 0.56 percent month on month to 10,628 yuan (US$1,714) per square meter, the China Index Academy said in a report.

    The result comes on the heels of a 0.5 percent gain in May, the first increase in four months. Prices had declined for eight consecutive months to December.

    Authorities have taken steps to support the stagnating property market with interest rate cuts and other measures, which the academy cited as helping to boost demand and “accelerate recovery in the market.”

    The central bank announced on Saturday its latest cut in benchmark interest rates, the fourth such move since November, and has taken other measures such as easing mortgage policies.

    In late March, it cut minimum down payment levels on second homes nationwide, rolling back a four-year-old policy unveiled curb soaring prices that were making home ownership unaffordable for many and raising worries over social unrest.

    The central bank also reduced the ownership period during which sellers are liable to a 20 percent capital gains tax on properties other than their main home.

    China’s gross domestic product grew 7.4 percent last year, the weakest rate in nearly a quarter of a century.

  • The mainland's interest rate cut last Saturday, its fourth in seven months, will help power the country's housing market recovery in the second half as developers accelerate project launches, analysts said.

    With the latest 25-basis-point cut, China's mortgage rates hit a new trough that will make housing more affordable and prompt some hesitant buyers to enter the market. The flipside is that easy policies will exhaust housing demand for the next few years.

    The move "adds a crowning touch to the housing market's healthy close in the first half, and will greatly increase confidence for its performance in the second half", said mainland property consultancy China Real Estate Index System (CREIS), an affiliate of Soufun Holdings.

    Commercial bank loans of above five years now cost 5.4 per cent per year, while those borrowing from the local governments' subsidised housing provident funds need to pay only 3.5 per cent per year. Both are lower than levels at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009.

    More importantly, economists said the latest move, which came earlier and stronger than expected, cleared up previous concerns about an end to the central bank's monetary relaxation.

    "We expect the move will help to stabilise [stock] market sentiment and lend support to property sales and economic growth in the second half," said Barclays China economist Chang Jian. "We maintain our view of one more benchmark rate cut of 25 basis point in the third quarter."Data from CREIS showed Chinese developers last week launched 58 projects in the 10 cities it tracks, including seven in Shenzhen, and five each in Beijing and Shanghai. These new units are either 8.5 per cent more expensive than those sold in previous phases or priced 0.4 per cent higher than those currently on sale in the neighbourhood.

    The average daily sales volume, by floor space, in June until last Saturday is 72 per cent higher than a year earlier, CREIS said.

  • Promising sales and pricing news is accelerating.

    *****************************************************************************
    THE area of new homes sold in Shanghai rose above the 400,000-square-meter threshold last week as sentiment in the high-end segment continued to be robust, according to latest market data.

    The city recorded sales of 417,500 square meters of new homes, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, up 69 percent week on week and the highest in nearly one month, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released yesterday.

    “Increased supply and developers’ sales campaigns jointly boosted last week’s transactions with luxury housing units remaining highly sought-after among home buyers,” said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher.

    “The central bank’s decision announced over the weekend to simultaneously cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratio for banks is likely to impact positively the country’s property market and might help extend the strength of the market through the traditional low season which usually falls in July,” Lu said.

    Effective on Sunday, the one-year lending and deposit rates have been cut by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent and 2 percent respectively, the People’s Bank of China said.

    The reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash banks need to hold, has been cut by 50 basis points for commercial banks serving rural areas, agriculture and small businesses. That for finance firms, or non-bank financial institutions, was cut by 300 basis points.

    The average cost of new homes fell 2.4 percent week on week to 34,667 yuan (US$5,584) per square meter, but above the 30,000 yuan per square meter level for the ninth straight week, Deovolente data showed.

    Across the city, 399 new homes costing 50,000 yuan per square meter and above were sold last week, up 145 from the previous seven-day period.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    I will give you my take after the new home sales and pricing numbers come out tonight, and watch how SFUN LEJU and EJ respond then on Wednesday.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    We get the initial read on new home sales in China for June sometime Tuesday evening. You would think rising prices would help the stock. Watch closely. Maybe someone then would feel they could steal the company for 8 bucks. Who knows. One of the first to be taken out was DATE on March 3. The take out was 5.20 or something, but since then they got some other offers, so now the stock is 7.50 or so. One investor wrote a letter saying the stock is worth 11.50. So someone cared there. It took a couple months for these other offers to flesh out.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    "I do not see a connection between Shanghai stocks exchange and EJ. " alex, this is precisely when Zhou and all these other CEO's are exiting, ie., they are not participating in the massive price gains in Shanghai stocks. The fact that the only connection between the two is that when Shanghai goes down, EJ and all the others go down, is why they are oughta here. The problem for that #@$#@ Zhou is that he gets out of the cheap, 7.38, or someone comes in and raises the bid, so he decides to stay here and makes even more money on the deal. It is a win win for him, a royal screw job for LT investors.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 28, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Not true. If Shanghai were to collapse, Zhou would cancel the deal. Who knows then what would happen to the stock. The offer is non-binding. But the PBOC just cut rates again over the weekend. Shanghai will probably soar again.

    Big numbers Tuesday night on new home pricing. Will effect LEJU SFUN more than EJ, however.

  • Reply to

    Blog points this out

    by ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:43 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 26, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Deal really could come unhinged now.

    Futures edge higher as China plunges
    Massive volatility - mostly down - continues in Shanghai where stocks fell 7.4% overnight following a 3.5% tumble the previous session.Western markets are mostly ignoring the bursting of that massive stock market bubble, with Europe just marginally lower and U.S. stock index futures edging higher.

    China's $8.8T stock market has plunged from first to worst on global performance rankings as leveraged speculators unwind their positions and a growing number of analysts warn that valuations have climbed too far.The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 7.4% today, following a sell-off on Thursday that left Chinese shares down 3.5%.Morgan Stanley has now advised clients to refrain from purchasing mainland shares, saying Shanghai's June 12 high likely marked the top of the bull market.

  • Reply to

    Blog points this out

    by ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:43 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    So, bottom line. If the bid is pulled, does EJ collapse? Or, does it give us the release to follow the upswing in the new home market in China?

    Complicated.

  • Kind of a two edged sword. If Shanghai collapses, probably will effect EJ LEJU anyway, even though the meteoric rise of Shanghai in the past year has not impacted EJ LEJU in the least. So Shanghai's collapse will kill the buyout offer, but will it also ruin the housing upswing, thus stunting the improving prospects for EJ LEJU????

    ***********************************

    Bottom line: The next 2 weeks could see another 3-5 US-listed Chinese companies announce buy-out bids, but the number will slow after that and many deals could collapse if China’s stock market rally falters. In related news, leading web portal Sina has announced it is joining a group making a previously announced privatization bid for E-House, one of China’s leading real estate services companies. That particular move looks related to an existing alliance between the 2 companies, and thus probably just marks a continuation of that relationship that I’ll describe below.

    Astute readers will note that of the 4 companies that I’ve mentioned being privatized, the only one that I write about with any regularity is E-House. That nicely summarizes what’s happening here, namely that none of these privatizing companies have been able to gain any attention from investors, which has caused their shares to languish even as stock markets in New York have rallied over the last few years.

    At the same time, these New York-listed companies are looking enviously at a Chinese stock market rally that has seen the major indexes more than double over the last year. I’ve previously written that much of the money backing this latest privatization wave appears to be speculative funds linked to the China stock market rally. Thus the wave could come to a screeching halt and many of the announced deals could collapse if the Chinese stock market rally sputters, which could be starting to happen.

  • Reply to

    SINA

    by starcutspin Jun 19, 2015 9:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    As I have said multiple times, when new home prices are released Tuesday June 30, and then when their earnings are released Aug 20, we have two major catalysts for stock price improvement. If the numbers next week are indeed good and SFUN takes off we are going to be really hacked off investors. Wait and watch.

  • Reply to

    Upcoming Q2

    by ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:38 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    "The only thing I do no like here is 7.39 offer"

    Well, this "only thing" is EVERYTHING. As you said, he has every prerogative to do so. Problem is, the stock was 15 a bit over a year ago. Anyone holding over a year is royally screwed. And the new home market is rebounding as I type this. Stock could easily reach double figures after the next CC around Aug 20. Easy.

  • Reply to

    SINA

    by starcutspin Jun 19, 2015 9:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Zhou put a floor in at least for SINA, gave them an option for around 8.35, something like that. On LEJU, ie.

    Should all email zhou and complain as LT shareholders are being taken to the proverbial woodshed

    zhouxin at ehousechina

  • Reply to

    Upcoming Q2

    by ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:38 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    What will be particular troubling for Zhou and SINA to keep this low ball bid is that the entire process takes about six months, and in this time there will be numerous types of fuel to move this stock notably higher. Zhou has really stuck it to us pretty good here. He also needs to know that to re-list in China could take another year or so from when he de-lists here. That boom market over there could be fizzling out. I don't see why he doesn't keep the main business here or whatever, and move a portion over to China. That way he is participating in the coming rally here and will still have his fingers in the Chinese pie. His timing here makes no sense for investors other than him.

  • ksn_44 by ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    The news continues to be positive as far as transactions AND ESPECIALLY PRICING. So we are going to have a nice-sized beat come Q2 which would be around Aug 20. Also, next week we will have MOM and YOY pricing out for June and it is going to be solid as well. We have as a MINIMUM these two events to provide a tail wind for an appreciation in EJ and LEJU stock prices. Unfortunately, EJ is saddled with a unconscionable low ball bid from Zhou and a couple of his cronies.

    **********************************************

    THE average cost of new homes continued to rise in Shanghai last week amid a robust sentiment in the luxury segment, latest market data showed.

    New homes, excluding government-funded affordable housing, were sold for a record 35,505 yuan (US$5,719) per square meter on average during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, up 4.7 percent week on week, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released yesterday.

    But the area of new homes sold fell 1.1 percent to 246,700 square meters. “Inadequate supply of new houses over the past few weeks, unfavorable weather conditions as well as the recent plunge of the country’s stock market all damped home seekers’ momentum, with weekly transactions hovering around 250,000 square meters for the third consecutive week,” said Lu Qilin, a researcher at Deovolente.

    “However, the luxury segment continued to outperform the mass market which led to another weekly price record.”

    Tomson Riviera, the city’s most costly apartment project located in Lujiazui, the Pudong New Area, sold a 1,207-square-meter duplex last week for 243 million yuan, breaking the previous price record for a single apartment in Shanghai. In April, an apartment at the same project sold for 228 million yuan, Deovolente data showed. A separate report yesterday by Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co showed the area of new homes sold for an average of over 60,000 yuan per square meter rose 11.1 percent last week from the previous week

  • Reply to

    SINA

    by starcutspin Jun 19, 2015 9:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 19, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    This was pre-arranged, don't kid yourself. They just announced it now to eliminate any notion of impropriety. With SINA's investment in LEJU, however, could mean a nice buyout premium ???

  • Reply to

    I'm surprised

    by alex_iff Jun 18, 2015 1:20 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 19, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    What if Shanghai collapses? Then all bets are off. And EJ gets reduced to trash level, bargain basement levels. Almost gots to have a risk of failure premium built in.

    As it is, justice for this cheapo buyout would be if EJ re-lists in Shanghai, and then they get pummeled there also.