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Penson Worldwide Inc Message Board

ksn_44 154 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 11:39 AM Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Why is this getting killed again?

    by bidupbid Dec 22, 2014 2:22 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 23, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I see lowly SFUN with its minimal OTO business and its uber competitive listing business where margins have been slashed is about to pass EJ in price. Ah, our stock, the left-handed, red-headed step son.

  • Reply to

    Why is this getting killed again?

    by bidupbid Dec 22, 2014 2:22 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 23, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    I suppose you can add TAX LOSS SELLING to the list of reasons these stocks are being eviscerated. I guess you hold out hope January 1 you see some buying come in. I dunno I am baffled at this incredibly AWFUL PERFORMANCE.

  • Reply to

    Why is this getting killed again?

    by bidupbid Dec 22, 2014 2:22 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 22, 2014 11:05 PM Flag

    speed, your opines make sense on both fronts, however, with the latter, we do not know to what extent are these services. And I would say if the latter were validated that this is indeed the case, that is, that they are taking away EJ/LEJU's online biz, then this is one heck of a case to be made for driving down the stock price.

    Then this begs the question, who in reality can confirm this without hard numbers? And if someone has these numbers, how are they getting them?

    When I saw the spike down on Thursday on huge volume (again), and then I saw the grossly oversold technical readings of the RSI and the MFI, I thought the Friday bounce back was the start of a new upcycle, with the customary fits and starts. But when Friday's gains were about wholly washed away today (Monday), I said, man, we are dealing with a whole different animal here.

    As I have said before, I would presume the reasons for this most recent shellacking will be fleshed out, and we will all be made aware soon enough.

    As to your first point about BABA pulling foreign investment dollars, I think that is mostly true as well. But I do not think it is thee major downward driver, as for sure most every other US listed Chinese stock would be experiencing at least a somewhat similar shellacking, and I do not think they are. I think LEJU and EJ are amongst the worst performing, And keep in mind, for the most part, LEJU met their earnings numbers and only slightly missed on their revs, and now they are below their IPO price. And, AND, most pundits would say Chinese RE has reached its bottom.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 22, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    go back a few posts...BABA doing some RE biz

  • NOW who's selling. Geez, let's just hope it is not related to that BABA news from a couple months ago. That would be like Walmart encroaching on a mom and pop grocery store in middle America. The mom and pop store goes away.

  • The rally continued this month. From Dec 1 to 15, home sales in 54 cities monitored by the China Real Estate Information Corp rose 2.83 percent over the first half of November.

    In first-tier cities, conditions were even better. According to the research arm of E-House (China) Holdings Ltd, new home prices in the four first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) rose 5 percent month-on-month in November to 23,484 yuan per square meter.

    The gains in Beijing and Shanghai were less than 1 percent, but in Shenzhen prices surged 18.9 percent.

    Rising sales also alleviated inventory pressures. Based on November's sales, it would take 14.6 months to clear the inventory in first-tier cities, according to E-house. In October, it would have taken 15.7 months.

    "Facing reduced inventory pressure, it is likely that developers will gradually move away from promoting sales by cutting prices. Some are even trying to hike prices. There is a greater chance that prices in first-tier cities will rise next year," said Yan Yuejin, an analyst at E-house.

    That assessment is supported by NBS data on the pre-owned home market. Many analysts see the market for such units in first-tier cities as a leading indicator for the new home market.

    Prices in all four first-tier cities stopped declining last month for such apartments, and in Beijing, prices even jumped 0.7 percent from October.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 19, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    2M shares with 3 hours to go. Probably going to be about 16-17M shares traded this week. Let's hope the fund is done with getting rid of all their shares...if that indeed is what it was.

  • Probably up 60% in the last couple months.

  • Reply to

    Talk about time for the anti depressants

    by ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 10:11 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Very good points, speed, but the Vanke deal was back in September and the Taobao deal with potential homeowners was announced back in October. Why all the hullabaloo now? I know that relationships with Developers are fostered over time, and BABA is certainly a new entrant. If there has been a new development, I sure would like to hear about something since this was announced over 60 days ago. Nevertheless, good that you note this.

    The other plausible is that this is margin selling from funds caught up with the oil debacle.

    Or, worse still, an underlying negative development within the companies. Course SFUN is getting whacked just as badly.

    Cannot remember a worse day for an investor in these stocks, and the further knife in the back is only more painful by the 400+ Dow day. Hard to stomach.

  • Reply to

    Talk about time for the anti depressants

    by ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 10:11 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Disagree. Volume was 4.5 mil yesterday, that was a ton. i forget, but I think the day before was around 3 and the day prior to that around 2. I am not checking my facts, but I do know the 10 day ave is 1.4, and we are over 2 already. This is substantial.

  • Reply to

    Talk about time for the anti depressants

    by ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 10:11 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    LEJU trades down a nickel for every 5000 shares, EJ for every 200,000. Something to watch.

  • Reply to

    Talk about time for the anti depressants

    by ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 10:11 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 18, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    Wish I could prompt them to do something myself. They have their skin in the game, surely they care. I think we will see something come out of the woodwork here. Obviously those in the know have heard something from somewhere. We are dead set for the 6's. Unimaginable.

  • As of this writing...........
    SFUN up 7%
    LEJU up 1%
    EJ down 1.6%

    I have 70 stocks on my screen, EJ the only one down. Wow. Red-headed, left-handed stepson. Or just a bad, bad stock investment.

    Technicals are solidly oversold.

    No matter, painful, very painful to watch.

  • Reply to

    LEJU technical reading

    by ksn_44 Dec 17, 2014 9:36 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 17, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    Huge EJ volume the past two days. Hedge funds unloading? Was today the final flush?

    LEJU's Money Flow got down to 15. Cannot be much more sold out. It CAN be, but the odds are against it. No rhyme or reason to this unless it is one or two large hedge funds invested in Chinese Real Estate stocks (EJ, LEJU and SFUN) wants out or is being forced out due to margin calls based on LONG oil positions. I don't know, what the heck else could be going on.

    It appears at this jucnture of the trading session Chinese Developers are moving up nicely. The question is....will EJ, LEJU or SFUN EVER HAVE ANOTHER UP DAY????!!!!

  • On a month-over-month basis, prices in November slipped 0.6%, compared with a 0.8% fall in October, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal. It was the third consecutive month that average prices fell less sharply than in the previous month. The National Bureau of Statistics doesn’t break out monthly figures.

    On a year-over-year basis, the average price of new homes declined by 3.6% in November, compared with a 2.5% fall in October and 1.1% fall in September which was the first annual decline in nearly two years.

    Excluding public housing, private-sector home prices fell in 68 of the 70 cities in November from a year earlier, up from the 67 cities that posted declines in October. On a month-over-month basis, home prices fell in 67 of the 70 cities in November, down from October’s 69.

    *****************************************************************************************************

    While the housing market is expected to remain weak well into next year, it is showing some tentative signs of bottoming out.

    Official data last week showed property sales hit 132.2 million sq m in November, the highest level in the past 11 months, though still down 11.1 per cent from the same period a year earlier.

    The housing market could get a further boost from policy easing by the central bank, which unexpectedly cut interest rates on Nov. 21 to shore up flagging economic growth. "The recovery momentum is still weak," said a senior executive at a mid-sized listed developer in Beijing, noting noted the market may have already found the bottom of the cycle. "The property market should not get worse in future," he said.

    **************************************************************************************************

    Housing sales will rise next year, according to banks including China International Capital Corp., reversing a slump in the first 11 months of this year amid tight credit and an economic slowdown.

  • The MONEY FLOW INDICATOR got down to 10 yesterday. You see this once every 5 years in most stocks. About sold out.

  • up another .83% yesterday. Been going gangbusters.

  • Reply to

    Man, what in the wide wide world of sports

    by ksn_44 Dec 10, 2014 10:27 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 17, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    venetian, two things. First, good info on that basket of Chinese stocks that have been hammered. I think as oil continues to slide these hedgies are meeting margin calls and dumping Chinese. This may be what is happening more recently, not sure why back earlier in the year these stocks were declining. Second, I have some transaction numbers emailed to me from Century 21 China today, I will have to look at them later to see how we compare to last year. Remember last year was off the charts as far as numbers, a better comparison is to 2012. But I will look at both.

  • Shenzhen leads rebound in China new home market
    Pickup in the new home sector on the mainland gains momentum on the back of policy support but analysts raise concerns over supply glut
    PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 17 December, 2014, 7:37am The pickup in new home prices firmed last month with an improvement in sales volume, the latest SCMP-Creda index showed, indicating signs of a market recovery following a flurry of policy support.

    Prices gained month on month in eight of the 10 major mainland cities, led by a jump of 18.94 per cent in Shenzhen.

    The other seven cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hangzhou and Nanjing.

    That was wider and deeper than the rise of less than 1 per cent in Tianjin and Hangzhou in October.

    "Shenzhen posted the best monthly sales performance so far this year and its prices also rose the most quickly across the country, driven by macro policies including the interest rate cut," said Chen Sheng, the dean of mainland consultancy China Real Estate Data Academy (Creda), a partner of the South China Morning Post for the monthly index, which covers home prices, sales and affordability in the 10 key cities. Home sales in Shenzhen rose 28.8 per cent last month from October, rising for a fifth consecutive month.

    Combined transaction volume in the 10 cities grew 10 per cent to 13.4 million sqmetres, the most so far this year and 75 per cent higher than in June when it hit the lowest level.

    But Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Hangzhou suffered slight declines in transactions from the previous month.

    Meanwhile, Wuhan suffered a month-on-month fall of 3.01 per cent in home prices and Chengdu saw a drop of 4.93 per cent......................cont'd

  • Reply to

    Dec week 1 sees 260....tide is or has turned

    by ksn_44 Dec 8, 2014 9:53 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 17, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    The data points keep rolling in positive, and our stocks keep going negative. It is nearly evident the cycle is at or even now past the turning point. Some day there will be a reckoning..............................................................................Home prices in Beijing and Shanghai rise further
    Buyers return to the markets in Beijing and Shanghai in the wake of mortgage relaxation
    PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 17 December, 2014, 7:37am The average price of a second-hand home in Beijing rose last month for a third consecutive month to a six-month high of 41,328 yuan (HK$51,720) per square metre, and Shanghai followed a similar trend, according to the SCMP-CTC index, adding to signs that policy relaxation is fuelling housing price inflation in top mainland cities.

    However, the month-on-month pickup pace in Beijing slowed to 0.8 per cent from October's 1.1 per cent.

    The price in Shanghai edged up 0.6 per cent to 34,264 yuan per square metre, the highest in four months, after a flat month.

    "The mortgage relaxation on people buying their second homes improved the funding of such buyers, who came back to the market despite a narrowing room for price negotiations with sellers," said mainland consultancy Century 21 China Real Estate (CTC), the South China Morning Post's partner for the monthly index.The index rose to 158 points in Beijing from October's 156. In Shanghai, it edged up to 142 from 141 in the previous two months.

    In year-on-year terms, the price trends have been diverging in the mainland's two most important housing markets.

    Prices in the capital fell 4 per cent for a third month, quickening from October's decline of 2.2 per cent.

    In Shanghai, however, prices have kept rising this year, albeit at a steadily slower pace. Last month's gain was 1.2 per cent.

    "First-time homebuyers are not enjoying [the central bank's] easy mortgage policies as about 40 per cent of the banks have yet to implement low rates," CTC said. "How the credit policies eventu

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