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Capstead Mortgage Corp. Message Board

ksn_44 185 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 12:08 PM Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • Undoubtedly the competitive landscape has been ramped, but this is also a confirmation of the EJ LEJU strategy in the O2O market. When I asked LEJU a while back if they could tie up with SFUN they explained a difference in how they look at their businesses, or how they go about them. Surely now LEJU sees they will have to do some merging/acquisitions to keep ahead in this rapidly evolving landscape.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 10, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    Only took 10 seconds to wipe out yesterday's gain at the open today. While this sector is out of favor, it is an understatement to say if you get a pop and you are a trader you gotta grab it.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 9, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    I am going to assume August 12, 14, 19 or 21. Usually is a Tuesday or Thursday to my recollection.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 8, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    jeff, we are now below the price when goldman issued its buy call yesterday. I think you are correct, but let's be happy they did not issue a sell.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 7, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    Non gaap last q was 7.7m or .06. If 22m is the new estimate (potentially low still) that puts us just a notch over .17 which is just above the midpoint.

    For the year it is .74 then the 2014 PE is 16 for a company growing what, somewhere from 50% last year to 25+% this year....

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 7, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    I got in on some of those options, by the way, venetian. Of course, mostly after the fact but when I saw the volume I jumped on board. You are so very right, been an awfully painful BUT UNJUSTIFIED pounding. As I will say for about the 5th time, you can be right about the company, and wrong about the stock though. Even though there was little if any impact on their business as transactions dollars and volume slid, the market punished them anyway.

    Since Goldman's (jackie du) note about a month ago, she has upgraded some of her numbers. As it is, Goldman is the one the big money follows and she has the lowest TP on both stocks. Nonetheless, from my conversation with LEJU IR a month ago that 140% YOY E Commerce growth may be a bit light. Another month and we will see.

    Hear you too on the high 11's. For stability or a base I presume you mean? But I ain't stopping there. This ECommerce biz is way, way early. We have not even touched the Weixin/Weibo effect yet. Nor the Zillow effect either although I suspect this one may not materialize much until later this year early next year.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jul 3, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    CALL volume out to October large again. Farther sighted investors see something.

  • Granted, this could be a short term hubub about nothing.

    1. Volume today in LEJU and EJ is extraordinary.
    2. Volume of Call options purchased in October are EXTRA EXTRAordinary.

  • But where is the sense in all this. They downgrade a point based on an interruption in a part of their biz that represents 6% of it?? Huh? And they ignore what is liable to be a strong beat in the major part of their biz, E Commerce? Talk about NON sensical. These guys get paid for this??

    ******************************************************************************************************

    July 2, 2014, 9:00 A.M. ET
    Leju: Beijing Weighs On Listing Business; JP Morgan Lowers TP By Shuli Ren
    J.P. Morgan lowered its price target for Chinese online real estate services provider Leju (LEJU) from $15 to $14, expecting a sluggish secondary property market in Beijing to weigh on Leju’s listing business. Beijing constitutes more than 90% of Leju’s listings business and secondary home transactions there dropped a whopping 55% from a year ago for the first five months this year.

    The bank remains positive on Leju, however, because listing business at Leju is still very small, accounting for only 6% of Leju’s revenue last year. By comparison, SouFun (SFUN) received a quarter of its sales from property listings. Leju makes money mostly from e-commerce and online marketing services.

    J.P. Morgan believes Leju’s e-commerce and marketing services segments will continue to do well. Here are analysts Alex Yao and Yong Wang on why:

    (1) the low penetration rate of online property transactions; (2) expansion into lower-tier cities; and (3) solid property projects in the pipeline. We expect marketing services to grow steadily in 2014 because they are not directly related to transactions.

    J.P. Morgan’s price target implies 14 times 2015 earnings. Leju is trading at 10 times and closed at $11.05 yesterday.

  • RESIDENTS in Hohhot in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will no longer face curbs on the number of homes they can own as the city has revoked the restriction, becoming the first to do so in the country as sluggish sentiment continued to cloud the housing market.

    Buyers will not have to show proof of home ownership and non-local residents will also be allowed to buy homes, including pre-owned, in Hohhot, said a statement posted on Thursday on the website of the city’s real estate development and supervision administration office.

    “It was actually unnecessary for Hohhot to implement such home-purchase restrictions,” said Yang Hongxu, vice director at E-House China R&D Institute, a property service provider and research body. “More smaller cities are expected to follow its steps as they struggle against large inventory and slack sales.”

    At the current pace of new home sales, inventories in Hohhot would be exhausted in more than 10 years, according to data by real estate consultancy service providers, including Tospur and Centaline Property.

    Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property, expects “by the end of this year, it is possible that more than 30 cities around the country may follow the move by Hohhot in order to boost home sales.”

    He said the home-purchase curbs will remain in first-tier cities and those with a population of over 10 million.

  • Chinese regulators increased banks’ capacity to lend money and bolster the slowing economy by changing the way loan-to-deposit ratios are devised.

    Banks from today can include in the calculation negotiable certificates of deposit sold to companies or individuals, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a statement yesterday. They can also exclude loans advanced to small enterprises and the rural sector that are backed by bonds, the CBRC said. Bank lending is capped at no more than 75 percent of deposits to prevent an overextension of credit.

    The changes in calculation may allow lenders such as Bank of Communications Co., which was approaching its limit under the previous methodology, to lower its ratio and advance more loans. Premier Li Keqiang is seeking to cut funding costs and feed credit into the world’s second-largest economy, which is forecast to expand in 2014 at the weakest pace in 24 years.

    Easing the loan-to-deposit requirements “will help amplify lending, especially for banks that focus on small and medium-sized enterprises,” Richard Cao, a Shenzhen-based analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co., said by phone. “This is an extension of the latest round of targeted easing.”

  • SHANGHAI'S new home market finally registered a major rebound in buyers' sentiment with last week's sales rising to the highest level in 13 weeks.

    Purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-funded affordable housing, surged 40.9 percent to 237,400 square meters during the week ending Sunday, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a report released today.

    Average cost of new homes, meanwhile, climbed 6.7 percent from the previous week to 26,284 yuan (US$4,239) per square meter, Uwin data showed.

    "Despite the notable rebound, overall momentum in the local housing market still remained subdued," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin. "With supply outnumbering sales in both June alone and the first half, a downward pressure for home price will continue to dominate the market."

    As of Sunday, new home sales in June totaled 670,200 square meters in Shanghai while transaction for the six-month period stood at 4.02 million square meters, according to Uwin data. That compared to 1.04 million square meters and 5.23 million square meters in supply, respectively, during the same period.

    "The big gap between supply and sales probably indicated that home searchers are still sitting on the sidelines until more significant discounts can be offered by real estate developers," Huang added.

    Around the city, a project in outlying Qingpu District managed to sell 193 units last week at an average price of 14,847 yuan per square meter, leading all others in terms of transaction volume, Uwin data showed.

  • Reply to

    Overseas Value Shopping By Big Boys?

    by bluethunderwrx Jun 26, 2014 1:03 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 26, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    Volume increasing as the day moves along, and no cratering...thus far. Funny how LEJU, EJ and SFUN all move in tandem.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 26, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    I want to keep my expectations reasonable, but miserly Goldman predicts 140% growth in LEJU's E commerce biz in Q 2, and my hints from LEJU is that this may be a bit understated. Note they grew 238% in Q 1 but admittedly this came off a very, very low base the previous year. August's report will be a TELL ALL on whether they are diverged from the RE market in China in general.

  • This is China's largest and a ginormous developer

    *******************************************************************************************

    [HONG KONG] China Vanke Co Ltd , the country's largest residential property developer, said yesterday that it is in talks with global investors, including funds and real estate peers, to sell a strategic stake as the company seeks to expand overseas and tap offshore capital markets.

    The stake sale could be accomplished by issuing new shares or via the purchase of shares from the secondary market, Vanke chairman Wang Shi told reporters at the company's Hong Kong-listing ceremony yesterday.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 25, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    blue, it is one of two scenarios, either investors think EJ-LEJU tracks RE dollar for dollar, or this OTO business they are in is above the fray, so to speak, and belies the direction of the RE market in China. So far, no one believes EJ-LEJU can continue as they guided, otherwise the stock would be in the teens.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 25, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    As the sector craters, again, if you listened to their CC's, both EJ and LEJU beat and raised estimates. Their particular businesses now are not inextricably linked to the whims and caprices of real estate prices and transactions in China. They are penetrating a whole new sub sector of demand for housing, the online to offline business. No matter, I hear what you are saying, you can be right about the companies but wrong about the stock prices. And here we have that detachment. Perhaps someday there will be a reckoning, not sure what it will take though. Q2 numbers are about over, be interesting to see how they turn out when they report in mid August.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    It is a universal ploy. If I have seen one article on the demise of the Chinese property market, I have seen a thousand in the past few months. EJ beats and raises and the stock behaves like they are filing Chapter 11.

  • Reply to

    Trading

    by ksn_44 Jun 24, 2014 11:57 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    I was hoping someone could tell me!

  • Reply to

    Scare tactics?

    by smichaelpro Jun 20, 2014 1:07 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    The Shanghai Composite's PE is now down near 7.5, the lowest on record.

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