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E-House (China) Holdings Limited Message Board

ksn_44 150 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • Tried entering this a couple of hours ago but post was deleted. Beats me

    EJ/LEJU is being lumped in with the SFUN pricing fiasco of the past couple of days. Goldman reminded everyone before the last CC that EJ/LEJU was not heavy on the second home listing element whereas this was 40% of SFUN's biz

    The BABA IPO is drawing tute money out of other stocks and into the big BABA offering on Friday

    The Money Flow Indicator is the lowest I have seen in years on EJ in particular, suggesting most of whom have wanted to sell, have sold. I say MOST.

    Lastly, the drop in housing prices again has deterred investors, even though the OTO business model is not predicated solely on rising prices.

    Nonetheless, headwinds are quite strong. The negative trend could cause the stock to dip further. We have hit 50-55% declines before from 52 week highs, as of now we are down 43%.

  • Reply to

    For what it's worth

    by watsonhelper Sep 4, 2014 8:26 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Sep 6, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    you're is the possessive. ..... pot calling the kettle black here

  • Reply to

    this morning action is

    by alex_iff Aug 28, 2014 10:26 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 28, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    Further, even though the estimates reflect decreased EPS numbers for '14 and '15 (solely due to Goldman), EJ's are still a penny higher for '14 and '15.

    There are alot of things in life I do not understand.

  • Reply to

    this morning action is

    by alex_iff Aug 28, 2014 10:26 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 28, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    bill, if you look at the next Q's estimates, you will see that 2 of the 3 analysts covering the stock raised estimates, while it shows that none have downgraded them. The logic in this imputes that there surely was a downgrade, therefore you bring in Goldman. And Goldman's PT and EPS estimates must be WAY below the other TWO analysts. WAY below. Otherwise, you would not see this decrease in September's EPS number.

    The same logic applies to the year end '14 numbers. You cannot have a decrease in EPS numbers with two actual UPGRADES. So obviously Yahoo has not noted the Goldman downgrade per the "number of analysts" but has noted it in the actual EPS numbers.

    I have followed this stock closely for 5+ years. I have seen Goldman lowball every other analyst consistently, almost like a broken record. Have they been right? Really could not tell you. I guess we will see how Starmine or whatever that service is rates the Analysts. Will be interesting.

  • Reply to

    this morning action is

    by alex_iff Aug 28, 2014 10:26 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 28, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I was wondering myself when Goldman would step in. For sure someone has stepped in on LEJU today, apparently the memo on EJ owning 75% of LEJU is missing.

  • PT is lower though on EJ. Considerably lower. You tell me.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 27, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    I see the disparity evened out. Unfortunately, it was not EJ or LEJU bouncing up to meet SFUN but SFUN tanking to come down to EJ.

  • EJ price now below where it was on earnings date.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 27, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    blue, don't be surprised if we do get something. LEJU's management certainly seems far more "public" and proactive than the holdovers at EJ. In any case, I expect something out of them soon enough. Damn, Goldman does this every friggin time, ie., throwing the wet blanket on things. I would venture to say this is probably the Nth time in a row they have low balled the PT.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 27, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    I cannot speak for the others, shanghai, but to EJ/LEJU I can. This gal over at Goldman's has done this multiple times over the years, she has ALWAYS had the lowest PT's as well. The PT's on EJ run up to 20 now while she is at 14. To our chagrin, the biggest funds follow Goldman, which is why on an upgrade there generally is not much of a reaction but when she puts out her downgrade there is always a pretty big short term hit.

    Like you, I added both today for a trade. Still have large cores in both though.

  • These disparities over the short term have a way of evening themselves out, let's watch.

  • Reply to

    Jinsong Du notes IN A BIG WAY

    by ksn_44 Aug 26, 2014 11:37 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 27, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    Yes, here we have the Goldman analyst downgrading to Neutral from Buy on EJ to 14.10 and LEJU to 19.90. Very, very stingy analyst, has never cut any slack or given an extraordinary multiple to EJ. This analyst has done this consistently for years, and yes, the big money does follow Goldman. Still both companies are below targets, EJ most notably.

    Our hopes now rely on an upturn in housing in China, at least in terms of stock price appreciation. With that, the govt needs to loosen the mortgage purse strings, ie., lower down payment percentages and lower mortgage rates.

  • This analyst is highly respected. Probably does not have the weight the Goldman analyst does, but the respect is there. I like to see IN A BIG WAY mentioned in a phrase that involves "online platforms".

    Leju expanded its market coverage to 58 cities in Q2, up from 49 in Q1. Margins are likely to remain under pressure for the time being, according to an Aug. 21 note from JPMorgan China Internet analyst Alex Yao, as Leju continues to spend on sales and marketing.
    Expansion to mobile platforms remains a "key strategic focus," Yao says. The transition offers limited near-term benefits, but promises a stronger market share position as more Chinese Internet users join the smartphone throng. Leju has thus far accumulated 21 million followers on social media platforms. Transactions completed using its mobile platforms rose to 49,725 in Q2 — up 107% year over year.
    Do these factors outweigh China's wobbly housing market?
    An Aug. 18 report from Credit Suisse analysts Jinsong Du and Kelvin Tam said the weakening market has driven China's two largest developers, China Vanke and China Overseas Land & Investment, to online platforms "in a big way." This has benefited competitors such as Soufun Holdings (NYSE:SFUN) and FangDuoDuo, as well as Leju.
    The report also says that Leju's broader focus, on housing channels from Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Sina (NASDAQ:SINA) and Weibo (NASDAQ:WB), give it an advantage vs. "Soufun's focus on its own website and mobile app."

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 25, 2014 11:31 PM Flag

    Besides the analysts, and again, nary a word from anyone today, what is EJ going to do with that cash horde they have??!!

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 24, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    shanghai, i lighted up a tad on LEJU myself but not one iota with EJ. The de-coupling of the stock prices is irrational. I have yet to see a new rating or PT on EJ post-earnings. Goldman, the main driver of the big money which really moves these stocks, was not present on either call and has been strangely silent the past two months. In many, after the SFUN listings furor, Goldman came out to see LEJU/EJ would be relatively unaffected, and they were right, but nary a word from them since.

    Waiting on Oppenheimer and Credit Suisse as well, among others.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 23, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    I think alot of LEJU's ascent can be attrtibuted to the IBD crowd. LEJU has been featured multiple times the past couple weeks. Here is what they noted last night (but you are right tek, there still is a substantial de-coupling in valuation here....SUBSTANTIAL). Nonetheless, IBD has played a role with LEJU:

    ***************************************************************************************

    Leju CEO Geoffrey He commented on the housing market when the company reported Q2 earnings.
    "The real estate market in China experienced a substantial slowdown this year, which has led to some loosening of restrictive government policies and an indication that more loosening may be ahead," he said in the release.
    "Current market conditions have also prompted a number of developers to show pricing flexibility while boosting their marketing efforts. We believe these trends will have a positive effect on the market in the second half of the year," he said.

  • Reply to

    EJ trading at negative 600 million valuation!!!

    by teknowiz Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 22, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    With over 600M in cash, I suspect we may get a nice dividend reward. My thinking if EJ's stock price does not couple with LEJU's this might be a response. Just thinking out loud....

  • Reply to

    EJ trading at negative 600 million valuation!!!

    by teknowiz Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 22, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    tek, I am beginning to think that you and I and a couple others on this board are the only ones aware of this massive decoupling in the LEJU-EJ valuation. This has gotten, as you have said, insane. I would even add absurdly insane if there is such a phrase. For grins, I am going to ask IR if management has any comments on this.

  • Leju Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:LEJU)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reissued by research analysts at Macquarie in a report released on Thursday. They currently have a $22.00 price objective on the stock, up from their previous price objective of $16.00. Macquarie’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 34.56% from the stock’s previous close.

  • Reply to

    Income and urbanization stats from McKinsey

    by ksn_44 Aug 21, 2014 5:43 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 21, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    Yeah, blue, the big take is the income build. Shocking numbers really, and good for RE.

EJ
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