Crushing disappoint. Anything Chinese these days makes Euro trash look trendy. Talk about a beaten up sector. One out of ten Chinese stocks are doing well. Even BABA is being obliterated.
After the major fade, now you buy for a late day pop back up, not as far up as the open, but it should pop a bit. That was pretty substantial news (if you can believe what they say).
Ford looks to add WeChat to models in China
Ford (NYSE:F) confirms it's in talks with Tencent over adding hands-free apps to models in China.A partnership which includes Tencent's popular WeChat app (+375M domestic active users) could have high strategic value for the automaker.Last summer, GM joint venture Shanghai OnStar launched a limited platform with Tencent.
Some major Chinese developers also said they are planning to raise prices for new luxury projects in prime areas this year.
New mortgage loans in January doubled from the previous month to 329.4 billion yuan ($52.67 billion), official data showed last week, showing Beijing's loosening monetary policy was bearing fruit.
"The market sentiment for this year is better than 2014 so developers are less willing to cut prices," said Clement Luk, chief executive officer of realtor Centaline's China eastern district.
"But they don't have the environment to raise prices by large degree because the macro-economy is not good; buyers still tend to be prudent and there's still too much inventory out there."
Industry executives and economists also caution prices may slide again in February as China settles in for long holidays starting next week.
China's annual consumer inflation hit a five-year low in January while factory deflation worsened, underscoring deepening weakness in the economy and heaping pressure on policymakers to inject more stimulus to underpin growth.
(Reuters) - Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities fell for the ninth straight month but showed some signs of stabilizing in the top cities, signaling an improvement in market sentiment after the central bank cut interest rates and lender's reserve requirements.
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were down 0.4 percent in January from December, an ninth straight monthly drop following December's fall of 0.3 percent, Reuters calculated from official data published on Tuesday.
New home prices in Beijing fell 0.1 percent between December and January, slowing from a 0.2 percent fall in December from November, while Shanghai prices were flat, stabilizing after eight straight month-on-month falls.
Against year-ago levels, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed new home prices fell for the fifth consecutive month, down 5.1 percent, accelerating from the annual 4.3 percent fall in December.
Of the 70 major cities the NBS monitors, 64 posted a monthly decline, down from December's 66.
Liu Jianwei, senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said in a statement prices became more polarized among different cities, with first-tier centers stabilizing while second-tier narrowed their declines and third-tier saw faster falls.
Stabilizing prices in Beijing and Shanghai suggest China's real estate market is showing signs of recovery, as some developers raise prices in major cities following government efforts to revitalize an economy growing at its slowest rate in more than two decades.
Cities See MoM Drop In Housing Inventory in January, Price Turn Expected By The Fall
35 cities in China have seen inventory drop for the first time in 11 months and the data has "escaped danger" now that sales are ticking up and inventory moving lower. Some are more cautious, saying they expect inventory could move up again as new projects come into the market during the heavy holiday selling season, but the general opinion among industry insiders is that the market is turning.
Yesterday, the latest data "Securities Times" reporter from Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute show that as of the end of January 2015, Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute of monitoring of the total 35 cities in new commercial housing stock is 271.21 million square meters, mom fell 0.7 percent, an increase of 17.1% yoy.
Beijing mortgage rates have come down as well, with mortgage discounts climbing above 7%. Korean bank Woori is offering the largest discount of 15%
Does not say what percent is for housing though............................................2015-02-14
Lending Surge in January Ahead of February Spring Festival
Lending was strong in January ahead of a late February Spring Festival.
China January new yuan loans surge to a 5-1/2-year high
China's economy extended $235.6 billion in new loans in January, beating analysts' expectations in a lending surge not seen since mid-2009.
Economists polled by Reuters had predicted new local-currency loans would rebound to 1.35 trillion yuan in January, compared with 697 billion in December.
The central bank also said on Friday that broad M2 money supply (M2) grew 10.8 percent year-on-year, missing expectations of 12.1 percent and 12.2 percent in the previous month.
The increase in M2 over December was over 1 percent though, so it follows December's acceleration.
Total social financing was also strong, although the year on year growth was negative. As with the lending, the early surge doesn't tells us too much about what's to come in 2015. Bank lending was roughly 70% of total social financing.
Super post. We are seeing a head fake here in oil prices of herculean proportions. Will come down hard if not next week surely within two weeks when this is figured out. Great post.
There is a delayed effect on this, but apparently oil longs are buying on the come. Oil will be down from here, of that there is little doubt.
But Matt Smith, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, pointed out that although the market is seeing a drop in drilling activity, “the delay in well completions by about 3 to 7 months means production will continue to edge higher into the second quarter, while the rig count continues to drop.”
Baker Hughes has issued the rotary rig counts as a service to the petroleum industry since 1944, when Hughes Tool Company began weekly counts of U.S. and Canadian drilling activity. Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon central time on the last day of the work week. The international rig count is released on the fifth working day of each month.
I realize that, I was being a smart alec. But it is mostly true......
Anyway, note this article. Very pertinent I would say. Just out on B l oomberg...........................The top-performing China hedge fund is piling back into property shares, reviving a trade that propelled it to a 46 percent gain in the second half of 2014.
Marco Polo Pure Asset Management has been buying developers, including Poly Real Estate Group Co. and Beijing Capital Development Co., after the industry’s benchmark gauge in Shanghai dropped as much as 19 percent from this year’s high. That same trade helped drive the fund’s gain in 2014 as China’s interest-rate cut in November sent the Shanghai Property Index to a 60 percent surge through Jan. 5, according to Aaron Boesky, Marco Polo’s chief executive officer in Hong Kong.
The first reduction in borrowing costs since 2012 is just the start of a round of monetary easing that will send the Shanghai Composite Index to a gain of about 50 percent this year, according to Boesky. Property stocks led the index’s 53 percent rally last year as investors in the $5.1 trillion market bet central bank stimulus will boost the world’s second-largest economy from its weakest expansion since 1990.
“We are going to make a new high,” Boesky, whose Pure China fund was the top performer in the second half among China-focused hedge funds tracked by AsiaHedge Intelligence, said in an interview in Hong Kong. The government is “going to start making cost of capital cheaper and the economy faster.” The housing market is poised to rebound, said Tang, who has been reducing holdings of brokerages to fund the shift toward property stocks.
Shenzhen recorded higher new-home prices in December, the first city tracked by the Chinese government to post an increase in four months, after lower interest rates boosted demand. China, which also cut banks’ reserve requirements this month, is likely to keep reducing those ratios along with benchmark lending rates, according to eco
Feb 12 (Reuters) - China's new home prices may have bottomed and even started to rebound in January after eight months of decline, industry surveys showed, fuelling hopes that official data due on Tuesday will confirm a recovery in the massive property market.
Signs that some developers are starting to raise prices in major cities follow the central bank's surprise rate cut in November and its decision to lower lenders' reserve requirements earlier this month, as it tries to revitalise an economy growing at its slowest rate in more than two decades.
Yet any recovery is patchy and most developers are still discounting to shift unsold inventories, according to industry sales data for January. Industry executives caution prices may slide again in February as China gears up for long lunar new year holidays starting next week.
"Sales in the market will slowly go up from the second quarter, because policy now is more favourable and customers' confidence is higher," said Ada Wong, vice president of China Aoyuan Property.
"But speaking of the whole year, any rise would only be modest."The green shoots for the property sector appeared early this year when some developers began raising prices in upper-tier cities such as Shanghai and Chongqing, property research firm CRIC said in a report released on Feb 10.
Top developer Vanke, for instance, hiked prices at its residential project in southwestern Chongqing city by 17 percent, the report said. China Overseas Land and Investment also set the prices for its new development in the southern city of Shenzhen 15 percent higher than neighbouring projects.
CRIC, which tracks 60 cities, estimates new home prices in first- and second-tier cities might have risen 0.64 percent in January from December, although it forecasts a 0.1 percent drop in prices countrywide.
Research firm CREIS, which tracks 100 major cities, estimates January new home prices may have gained 0.2 percent, after eight consecutive monthly declines. Prices still would be 3.1 percent lower than the same time last year.
Aoyuan is one of a handful of Chinese developers which reported higher sales this week, posting a 16 percent jump in January. Evergrande Real Estate said sales climbed 5.1 percent and Shimao Property reported a 19 percent gain.Many developers, however, continue to struggle with slumping sales. Of some 19 companies that announced January sales this month, 11 posted falls of 12 percent to 50 percent.
"There was simply less saleable area," said a spokesman for Poly Real Estate, which posted a 26.7 percent fall in sales.
"But for the whole year, we expect to see stable growth."
"They've already removed home purchase restrictions and are receiving strong housing demand from residents in the first-tier cities, as improving transport cuts driving time to only one hour."
Residents in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Haikou on Hainan Island, are still barred from buying multiple homes. However, other cities have removed such curbs since the middle of last year as part of their efforts to stimulate demand for housing.
Developers returned to the land market in October, after retreating in the previous few months.
The People's Bank of China cut interest rates in November for the first time in more than two years and lowered banks' reserve requirements this month in an attempt to avoid an overly sharp economic slowdown. Economists expect further cuts, which will pump up liquidity and make mortgages cheaper and easier.
Such policies have made developers more optimistic that the mainland housing market will gradually recover this year.
"However, developers will have to be more cautious in picking the right land parcels," Hong said. "After all, now is different from a decade ago. Developers will not necessarily be able to make hefty profits from any plot acquired."
Chinese developers loosened their purse strings at the start of this year to replenish land banks in first-tier cities and a few second-tier ones on high expectations they will be the first areas to see a housing market recovery due to policy relaxation.
However, analysts warned that if reality fell short of expectations, interest would quickly cool, resulting in a similar pattern to the one seen last year. Possible catalysts for such disappointment mainly lurk on the policy side, including a serious effort to push ahead with property ownership registration next month.
A pilot scheme to blacklist developers who fail to pay land premiums in a timely manner or begin construction as scheduled, reportedly set to start this year in 11 cities including Chongqing and Nanjing, would also make developers rethink aggressive land bank building, analysts added.
"Developers have sufficient budget at the beginning of the year, and land markets in first- and second-tier cities will be hot," said David Hong, a senior analyst at China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC).
Beijing raked in 3.6 billion yuan (HK$4.5 billion) on Tuesday alone through the sale of three parcels of land, one to Greenland Group, one to Longfor Properties and the other to a consortium led by Cifi Holdings.
Land sale revenue in the capital topped 34 billion yuan last month, according to CRIC data. However, an 18 per cent month-on-month land premium gain in first-tier cities last month stood in sharp contrast to a 68 per cent fall in third- and fourth-tier cities. Revenues in second-tier cities dropped 35 per cent.
Li Wenjiang, chief analyst at property consultancy Hopefluent, said: "Developers will also be looking at smaller cities neighbouring first-tier cities, such as Foshan near Guangzhou and Dongguan near Shenzhen.
A combination of muted money growth, depressed real estate prices, and sluggish economic growth all contribute to fueling fears about deflation in China, according to Barclays analyst David Fernandez.
And should China’s headline inflation remain around 1% for the year, the PBOC is expected to respond by loosening its purse strings further to jumpstart the economy and weaken its currency, making its goods cheaper to sell overseas.
“We expect two more 50 [basis points] cuts in the banks’ [reserve requirement ratio], two additional interest rate cuts (25bp each), and a willingness to accommodate Chinese yuan’s weakness vs the U.S. dollar,” said Fernandez in a note.
Nomura analyst Yang Zhao also expects the PBOC to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter along with three additional reserve requirement ratio cuts.
A better picture of Chinese central bank’s monetary policy stance is likely to emerge after Lunar New Year with some economists blaming the holiday falling in February for subdued consumer prices.
The Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 19 and will mark the start of the Year of the Sheep.
“A shift in the timing of Chinese New Year [from January to February] is largely responsible...Fruit and vegetable prices rose sharply ahead of the holiday in January of last year, creating a strong base for comparison,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
entral Bank Expected to Support the Property Sector
The decision by the central bank to cut reserve requirements was widely seen as an effort to support the country’s real estate sector, which is currently mired in a nearly year-long slump.
Within a day of the rate cut being announced, UBS had upgraded the entire China real estate sector from Sell to Neutral, expecting the liquidity measure to spur more home sales.
China’s home sales slid by 7.8 percent in 2014, contributing to an overall slowdown in the economy that led to the country missing its GDP growth target for the first time in 15 years.
China’s economic growth slowed to 7.4 percent last year as home prices fell from May through the end of the year. Although the market has shown signs of picking up in January, it still is faced with ever larger surpluses of unsold homes.
With this in mind, experts on China’s economy predicted more moves by the PBOC. Goldman Sachs economist Yu Song was quoted in an article in CNBC as saying, “More RRR cuts are likely. With policymakers having demonstrated a willingness to use broad RRR cuts, we expect to see more, though the next may come with a significant lag (likely Q2).
In the same account, Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist and head of equity strategy, China at Deutsche Bank predicted another 50 basis point RRR cut in the second quarter and two interest rate cuts – once in March and again in the second quarter.