i got them at .20 two weeks ago and watched them slide to a nickel. We already are at .40 so someone at a nickel has an 8 bagger. Just astounding. A year's worth of earnings, heck, five years worth of earnings if you made one bold play. You knew eventually it has to catch SFUN, or SFUN had to come back to it. Leju still 40% higher than EJ, still way out of line.
And every month has CALL contracts being purchased in the first 15 minutes today. Like a light switch being turned out. We have some SFUN catching up to do. We are going to have half a million shares in 20 minutes.
Chinese online real estate plays surge again • 2:41 PM
Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor
SouFun and Leju are adding to the big Wednesday gains they saw following a Shanghai rally and bullish Citi/HSBC notes and Chinese real estate. E-House, which rose moderately yesterday, is also sharply higher today.
Of note: SouFun saw its short interest fall from 16.1M on March 3 to 7.4M on March 31, while E-House's fell from 2.1M to 1.5M. Leju's rose slightly to 2.7M from 2.6M. With SouFun and E-House (along with Leju) off sharply from their 2014 highs, shorts might be opting to take profits in response to Beijing's stimulus efforts.
What is even more bizarre are the loss forecasts for EJ for the first Q. -.24 and -.27 from another analyst. LEJU is supposed to lose -.02. So how bad is that 30% of the EJ business that accounts for over -.20 of the loss for the Q? Makes no sense.
EJ volume this morning is incredible. SFUN has traded basically dollar for dollar with EJ the past 10 months. Now all of a sudden it is 33% higher. I recognize that SFUN is forecast to do about the same as LEJU for Q1, ie., maybe make or lose a couple sense. But is anyone looking beyond Q1 with all the government stimulation in place, and with more to come?
Either SFUN has to come down to EJ or EJ is going to close the gap on SFUN. One or the other has to occur. And I am not even talking about LEJU. LEJU is normally about 20-25% higher than EJ, now it is 50% higher.
Something has to give one way or the other. I think the volume is telling us what is going to happen to EJ. That is, play CATCH UP.
Microblogging platform Weibo is off to the races after the Shanghai exchange rose 2.6% overnight (continuing a massive bull run), as are online real estate plays SouFun and Leju. CDN owner ChinaCache (previous) is also posting big gains.
Bullish comments from Citi and HSBC about Chinese real estate could be giving a lift to SouFun/Leju. Citi reports sales in tier 1/2 cities are "picking up strongly post recent aggressive policy loosening," and that home prices rose in March.
Following a U.S. trip, HSBC reports long-time Chinese real estate bears have become bullish. "Investors are more bullish than at any other time over the last few years on China’s real estate sector. While their more constructive outlook is partly fueled by the broader market rally amid liquidity inflows from the mainland, investors are also coming to the realization that government policies both macro and property-specific are steering the sector towards a potentially faster-than-expected physical market recovery."
HSBC adds investors were inquiring about "mid cap and higher beta stocks," rather than just large-cap "safe havens," as well as about "laggards in the sector." SouFun and Leju fit that description.
Separately, Leju filed its annual report after the close yesterday.
Wowowow. Someone has worse than -.24. What the heck are they seeing???? LEJU is going to probably break even....at least.
Chinese New Home Prices Barely Drop in March
Chinese new homes prices fell an average of 0.16% across the government's 70 city survey last month. There is still bifurcation in the market, but improvements were across the board, with no city seeing a 1 percent drop month-on-month. The shift points to a potential bottom in the market and based on the early data from April, prices are likely to be rising nationally this month.
Year over year, prices are down 6.1%.
Since 2010, average prices are up 7.6%.
March 2014: 4 cities saw declines in price mom, 10 cities were flat, 56 were up.
April: 8 cities saw declines in price mom, 18 cities were flat, 44 were up.
May: 35 cities saw declines in price mom, 20 cities were flat, 15 were up.
June: 55 cities saw declines in price mom, 7 cities were flat, 8 were up.
July: 64 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 2 were up.
August: 68 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 1 was up.
September: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
October: 69 cities saw declines in price mom, 1 city was flat, 0 were up.
November: 67 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 0 were up.
December: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 4 cities were flat, 1 was up.
January 2015: 65 cities saw declines in price mom, 3 cities were flat, 2 were up.
February: 66 cities saw declines in price mom, 2 cities were flat, 2 were up.
March: 49 cities saw declines in price mom, 9 cities were flat, 12 were up.
That, however, compared to sales of nearly 1.96 million square meters of new residential properties, or a little bit over 16,000 units, registered in Shanghai in the first quarter of this year, according to Fang, the country's largest real estate website, which was previously known as Soufun.
The new homes sold last week cost an average price of 27,186 yuan (US$4,385) per square meter, a week-over-week drop of 8.9 percent.
The decrease was mainly due to some structural shift. Six of the ten best-selling new residential projects last week were sold for a price of less than 20,000 yuan per square meter on average, while the most expensive one among the ten cost no more than 35,000 yuan per square meter.
As of Sunday, new home sales in Shanghai totaled 614,800 square meters in April, which may hopefully boost this month's volume to around 1 million square meters, Huang predicted.
Shanghai housing market on recovery track
By Cherry Cao | April 20, 2015, Monday SENTIMENT among both home buyers and real estate developers continued to gain for the second straight week in Shanghai, evidence that the local housing market has been well on its track to a solid recovery.
The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, rose 29.7 percent week-on-week to 284,300 square meters during the seven-day period ended Sunday, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a report released today.
On the supply side, an even more notable growth was registered during the same period when 354,800 square meters of new housing developments were launched for sale citywide, a surge of 62.4 percent from the previous week, Uwin data showed.
"The seven-day transaction volume of new homes hit a 15-week high in Shanghai, indicating a quite strong recovery of the residential market," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin. "However, new housing supply still outnumbered sales so far this year in Shanghai so the high inventory still remains a concern at the moment despite the recent recovering signs."
Currently in Shanghai, new home inventory stays above 12.48 million square meters, or over 83,600 units, according to latest data posted on the city's official real estate website fangdi.
Oil storage is basically full. This is ridiculous. Citi the other day was calling for 30. This will drop as fast as it rose....eventually. Big oil ain't gonna win this one.
It does make them easier to beat. But nonetheless, a loss of .24 is extraordinary. They have not had a quarterly loss for years.
That said, LEJU is basically forecast to break even for the 1st Q, perhaps this accounts for the rising price disparity between the two companies.
The year end numbers for LEJU are stale though on Yahoo. But what is really wierd about the Q1 forecasts is LEJU sales are set to rise 20% but EJ is forecast as flat to slightly down. LEJU is 70% of EJ revenue, so what the $%^& happens to the remaining 30% of EJ's business? Talk about falling off the earth.
Then the forecast is for Q2 EJ revenue up 16% while LEJU about the same. Something just ain't right here.
What happened to EJ's business in Q1, particularly with LEJU going to report strong revenue increases? Odd.
So the board can get together for steaks and cocktails and we get another meaningless announcement about upcoming events and testing. I mean, how much can these guys spend and eat on the road? Where is the next one, San Diego?
Not sure how the drop in scrap prices effects them? Do they lose out as they sell it now at a lower price than they bought it? Or is now cheaper for them to acquire it? Have no idea really, Therefore, I probably should not own this, but I do.
The steel mills in Eastern China have announced further cut in ferrous scrap purchasing prices. The cut comes in the light of declining rebar and iron ore prices.
Sources indicate that Jiangsu Shagang Group announced cut of Yuan 30 per mt on Saturday. The company had earlier lowered its scrap purchasing prices by Yuan 30 per mt last Sunday. Following the announcement, scrap purchasing price of heavy melting scrap of thickness 6 mm and above now stands at Yuan 1,550 per mt, inclusive of VAT. The company has dropped its scrap buying prices by Yuan 170 per mt since March this year.
Meantime, Yonggang Group also declared cut of Yuan 30 per mt on purchase price of heavy melting scrap 8mm and above effective Sunday onwards. After adjustment, the scrap delivered to the company’s Zhangjiagang works now stands at Yuan 1,610 per mt including VAT. The company has lowered its scrap buying prices by Yuan 80 per mt since March 2015.
Also, Maanshan Iron & Steel (Magang) in Anhui province reduced its scrap purchasing price of plate cut-offs of thickness 6 mm and above by Yuan 30 per mt. After adjusting for the price cut announced Sunday, the buying price now stands at Yuan 1,610 per mt including VAT. Magang has lowered its buying price seven times for a total amount of Yuan 180 per mt since the Lunar New Year holidays.
According to steel mills in Eastern China, the scrap prices are likely to fall down further if the decline in rebar and iron ore prices is not arrested. The slide in rebar and iron ore futures projects bleak outlook for the coming quarter, mills noted.
Source: Scrap Monster
Someone just knocked EJ down to a LOSS OF .24 FOR THE 1ST Q. Wowowowowow. I guess they see expenditures on these two new businesses really ramping. But then for the year they have us at .15 for the year, so they have us making .39 the last 3 Q's. Quite a turnaround.
I think those 2016 estimates on Yahoo are stale though, issued way before the last earnings release.
I don't know what to think these days, US, European and Chinese markets breaking all kinds of records. And we languish at 6 bucks.