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QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST) Message Board

ksn_44 160 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • This analyst is highly respected. Probably does not have the weight the Goldman analyst does, but the respect is there. I like to see IN A BIG WAY mentioned in a phrase that involves "online platforms".

    Leju expanded its market coverage to 58 cities in Q2, up from 49 in Q1. Margins are likely to remain under pressure for the time being, according to an Aug. 21 note from JPMorgan China Internet analyst Alex Yao, as Leju continues to spend on sales and marketing.
    Expansion to mobile platforms remains a "key strategic focus," Yao says. The transition offers limited near-term benefits, but promises a stronger market share position as more Chinese Internet users join the smartphone throng. Leju has thus far accumulated 21 million followers on social media platforms. Transactions completed using its mobile platforms rose to 49,725 in Q2 — up 107% year over year.
    Do these factors outweigh China's wobbly housing market?
    An Aug. 18 report from Credit Suisse analysts Jinsong Du and Kelvin Tam said the weakening market has driven China's two largest developers, China Vanke and China Overseas Land & Investment, to online platforms "in a big way." This has benefited competitors such as Soufun Holdings (NYSE:SFUN) and FangDuoDuo, as well as Leju.
    The report also says that Leju's broader focus, on housing channels from Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Sina (NASDAQ:SINA) and Weibo (NASDAQ:WB), give it an advantage vs. "Soufun's focus on its own website and mobile app."

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 25, 2014 11:31 PM Flag

    Besides the analysts, and again, nary a word from anyone today, what is EJ going to do with that cash horde they have??!!

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 24, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    shanghai, i lighted up a tad on LEJU myself but not one iota with EJ. The de-coupling of the stock prices is irrational. I have yet to see a new rating or PT on EJ post-earnings. Goldman, the main driver of the big money which really moves these stocks, was not present on either call and has been strangely silent the past two months. In many, after the SFUN listings furor, Goldman came out to see LEJU/EJ would be relatively unaffected, and they were right, but nary a word from them since.

    Waiting on Oppenheimer and Credit Suisse as well, among others.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 23, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    I think alot of LEJU's ascent can be attrtibuted to the IBD crowd. LEJU has been featured multiple times the past couple weeks. Here is what they noted last night (but you are right tek, there still is a substantial de-coupling in valuation here....SUBSTANTIAL). Nonetheless, IBD has played a role with LEJU:

    ***************************************************************************************

    Leju CEO Geoffrey He commented on the housing market when the company reported Q2 earnings.
    "The real estate market in China experienced a substantial slowdown this year, which has led to some loosening of restrictive government policies and an indication that more loosening may be ahead," he said in the release.
    "Current market conditions have also prompted a number of developers to show pricing flexibility while boosting their marketing efforts. We believe these trends will have a positive effect on the market in the second half of the year," he said.

  • Reply to

    EJ trading at negative 600 million valuation!!!

    by teknowiz Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 22, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    With over 600M in cash, I suspect we may get a nice dividend reward. My thinking if EJ's stock price does not couple with LEJU's this might be a response. Just thinking out loud....

  • Reply to

    EJ trading at negative 600 million valuation!!!

    by teknowiz Aug 22, 2014 11:25 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 22, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    tek, I am beginning to think that you and I and a couple others on this board are the only ones aware of this massive decoupling in the LEJU-EJ valuation. This has gotten, as you have said, insane. I would even add absurdly insane if there is such a phrase. For grins, I am going to ask IR if management has any comments on this.

  • Leju Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:LEJU)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reissued by research analysts at Macquarie in a report released on Thursday. They currently have a $22.00 price objective on the stock, up from their previous price objective of $16.00. Macquarie’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 34.56% from the stock’s previous close.

  • Reply to

    Income and urbanization stats from McKinsey

    by ksn_44 Aug 21, 2014 5:43 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 21, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    Yeah, blue, the big take is the income build. Shocking numbers really, and good for RE.

  • McKinsey predict in their June 2013 McKinsey Quarterly that growth is far from over. Their research suggests that in 2022 75 percent of China’s urban consumers will earn $9000 to $34000 a year[4]. This would lead to a purchase-power-parity (PPP) level equal to Brazil and Italy. In 2000 only 4 percent of urban Chinese people were within this range, in 2012 68 percent were.

    McKinsey also predict that the urban population will rise from 256 million to 357 million, with the upper middle class growing from 14 percent to 54 percent of the urban population. The urbanization process was studied extensively by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), in order to develop a view of the possible future of the process. Their prediction is that there will be 1 billion people living in an urban environment and 221 cities will have 1 million plus people living in them. Interestingly enough,

    McKinsey also predict that the middle class will shift from the tier 1 cities and will move to tier 2 and 3 cities. Tier 1 cities will not be shrinking, but middle-class growth will be far greater in the tier 2 and 3 cities, hence the shift. MGI predicts that the proportion of GDP generated by cities in China will grow from 75 percent to about 95 percent in 2025. This strong predicted continued growth will provide new market opportunities for the real estate market in the future. These developments, combined with the new relaxed one-child policy, will ensure an increase in the labor pool and exacerbate elderly class issues.

  • Reply to

    EJ Earnings Call Q&A Session

    by abacusbeater Aug 20, 2014 1:16 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 21, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I think they have pounded into the analysts margin information the past two CC's, indicating they would be "stable". Zhou made the comment as they move into more cities margins would IMPROVE based on scale. But to continue meeting the demands of developers as to what they wanted costs would increase. Thus, the flatness, or stability.

    They indicated the Weixin rollout is done, so that was the big one. Costs are already out there. This community service roll out is ongoing so obviously costs are still being input.

    Disappointing sell off today. I think the perception still is that an improving Chinese real estate market both in transactions and pricing is good for EJ and LEJU, regardless of the numbers they are showing in a down market. Unfortunately, they have to live with that. On the other hand, Z breaking out again. As crazy as it is, I own options on Z. Their numbers are gaudy yet investors keep pouring in. Completely different from EJ/LEJU. These two are turning profits whereas Z has been a cash and earnings black hole. Go figure. If you can't beat em, join em.

  • Reply to

    What is LEJU ownership % of EJ?

    by teknowiz Aug 21, 2014 11:22 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 21, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Other way around, if you can believe that based on the stock prices. EJ owns 75% of LEJU.

  • Reply to

    EJ Earnings Call Q&A Session

    by abacusbeater Aug 20, 2014 1:16 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 11:13 PM Flag

    Yeah, they did, they refer to it as the COMMUNITY SERVICE PLATFORM. The Standard Chartered analyst asked about that. They wondered if there would be monetization of that.....here is the EJ response....................The revenue model, the exact revenue model for the community service platform has many possibilities. So it may or may not involve something where the end user pays. I mean, first of all the community service platform in terms of end user, you’re not really -- it doesn’t have really -- it is limited to those people who live in the community and pay service. It could include -- the end user of this platform could include merchants, local service providers.

    But first of all the platform aims to bring those parties and people together. So the definition of end user here is already much wider than home buyers. So I wouldn’t limit the idea of end user first of all to home buyer. So it continue along that line then, yeah, I mean, obviously, the revenue will come from somebody. But it’s not necessarily for those people who pay for services, maybe could be the people who or the companies that provide services.

  • Reply to

    EJ Earnings Call Q&A Session

    by abacusbeater Aug 20, 2014 1:16 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    One note from the CC on what could happen in an upswing in the RE market, as opposed to what occurred the past six months in a depressed real estate market:

    *************************************************************************************************************

    If I can just add a little bit Jinsong, this is Li-Lan. Obviously, I’d say, very depressed market is bad for our margin -- bad for our traditional agency business and doesn’t help the online business either.

    So to that extent, if the market sentiments of the overall transaction volume activity recover in the second half of the year, basically in the next couple of months, it should help.

    But market conditions are not the only thing that affects our margin. How much we spend on new products and platforms. How much we spend on marketing as we do during the Leju cost, those are also impact our margins.

    *******************************************************************************************************

    TRANSLATED: We made good or OK money now in a down market, but if this market improves our margins will be cookin!

  • Someone tell me how this makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Here we go again!

    by abacusbeater Aug 20, 2014 11:33 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    It is almost as if there is no connection. Hard one to figure. Maybe shows you how intelligent the investment community really is.

  • Multiple is exponentially well beyond EJ or LEJU

  • Reply to

    Loaded on both dips

    by ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 9:49 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Going to listen to the LEJU CC sometime today and will give my thoughts. I noticed Goldman did not ask any questions on the EJ CC but Jin Song (sp) at Credit Suisse asked about 4 of them. Note: he is very influential so what he says may be a driver. Note also: what he says is not always made public.

  • Reply to

    Loaded on both dips

    by ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 9:49 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 20, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    bill, I like you cannot figure out trading on either one either. The best I can make of it is that it is totally buying on the come. I listened to EJ's call, but not LEJU's yet. In my one experience in listening to LEJU's last CC I found their management very in tuned and the CC was very enlightening. They seemed to be less guarded and more forthcoming than the EJ execs. My opinion only.

    But the two MAJOR takeaways are in my opinion

    If they are doing this well in a down market, how much better will they do, potentially exponentially, in a rising market.

    And second, what is the impact of this Weixin/Weibo combo on revenue. After all, they are the main cogs in social media in China, and we are into them with both hands.

  • May quickly unload half as they both tend to pop and fade, then retrench

  • 1.5B market cap.

    Another big dividend coming???

QNST
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