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QuinStreet, Inc. Message Board

ksn_44 76 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 31, 2015 2:30 PM Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • Promising sales and pricing news is accelerating.

    *****************************************************************************
    THE area of new homes sold in Shanghai rose above the 400,000-square-meter threshold last week as sentiment in the high-end segment continued to be robust, according to latest market data.

    The city recorded sales of 417,500 square meters of new homes, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, up 69 percent week on week and the highest in nearly one month, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released yesterday.

    “Increased supply and developers’ sales campaigns jointly boosted last week’s transactions with luxury housing units remaining highly sought-after among home buyers,” said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher.

    “The central bank’s decision announced over the weekend to simultaneously cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratio for banks is likely to impact positively the country’s property market and might help extend the strength of the market through the traditional low season which usually falls in July,” Lu said.

    Effective on Sunday, the one-year lending and deposit rates have been cut by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent and 2 percent respectively, the People’s Bank of China said.

    The reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash banks need to hold, has been cut by 50 basis points for commercial banks serving rural areas, agriculture and small businesses. That for finance firms, or non-bank financial institutions, was cut by 300 basis points.

    The average cost of new homes fell 2.4 percent week on week to 34,667 yuan (US$5,584) per square meter, but above the 30,000 yuan per square meter level for the ninth straight week, Deovolente data showed.

    Across the city, 399 new homes costing 50,000 yuan per square meter and above were sold last week, up 145 from the previous seven-day period.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    I will give you my take after the new home sales and pricing numbers come out tonight, and watch how SFUN LEJU and EJ respond then on Wednesday.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    We get the initial read on new home sales in China for June sometime Tuesday evening. You would think rising prices would help the stock. Watch closely. Maybe someone then would feel they could steal the company for 8 bucks. Who knows. One of the first to be taken out was DATE on March 3. The take out was 5.20 or something, but since then they got some other offers, so now the stock is 7.50 or so. One investor wrote a letter saying the stock is worth 11.50. So someone cared there. It took a couple months for these other offers to flesh out.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 30, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    "I do not see a connection between Shanghai stocks exchange and EJ. " alex, this is precisely when Zhou and all these other CEO's are exiting, ie., they are not participating in the massive price gains in Shanghai stocks. The fact that the only connection between the two is that when Shanghai goes down, EJ and all the others go down, is why they are oughta here. The problem for that #@$#@ Zhou is that he gets out of the cheap, 7.38, or someone comes in and raises the bid, so he decides to stay here and makes even more money on the deal. It is a win win for him, a royal screw job for LT investors.

  • Reply to

    right now EJ trades

    by alex_iff Jun 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 28, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Not true. If Shanghai were to collapse, Zhou would cancel the deal. Who knows then what would happen to the stock. The offer is non-binding. But the PBOC just cut rates again over the weekend. Shanghai will probably soar again.

    Big numbers Tuesday night on new home pricing. Will effect LEJU SFUN more than EJ, however.

  • Reply to

    Blog points this out

    by ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:43 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 26, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Deal really could come unhinged now.

    Futures edge higher as China plunges
    Massive volatility - mostly down - continues in Shanghai where stocks fell 7.4% overnight following a 3.5% tumble the previous session.Western markets are mostly ignoring the bursting of that massive stock market bubble, with Europe just marginally lower and U.S. stock index futures edging higher.

    China's $8.8T stock market has plunged from first to worst on global performance rankings as leveraged speculators unwind their positions and a growing number of analysts warn that valuations have climbed too far.The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 7.4% today, following a sell-off on Thursday that left Chinese shares down 3.5%.Morgan Stanley has now advised clients to refrain from purchasing mainland shares, saying Shanghai's June 12 high likely marked the top of the bull market.

  • Reply to

    Blog points this out

    by ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:43 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    So, bottom line. If the bid is pulled, does EJ collapse? Or, does it give us the release to follow the upswing in the new home market in China?

    Complicated.

  • Kind of a two edged sword. If Shanghai collapses, probably will effect EJ LEJU anyway, even though the meteoric rise of Shanghai in the past year has not impacted EJ LEJU in the least. So Shanghai's collapse will kill the buyout offer, but will it also ruin the housing upswing, thus stunting the improving prospects for EJ LEJU????

    ***********************************

    Bottom line: The next 2 weeks could see another 3-5 US-listed Chinese companies announce buy-out bids, but the number will slow after that and many deals could collapse if China’s stock market rally falters. In related news, leading web portal Sina has announced it is joining a group making a previously announced privatization bid for E-House, one of China’s leading real estate services companies. That particular move looks related to an existing alliance between the 2 companies, and thus probably just marks a continuation of that relationship that I’ll describe below.

    Astute readers will note that of the 4 companies that I’ve mentioned being privatized, the only one that I write about with any regularity is E-House. That nicely summarizes what’s happening here, namely that none of these privatizing companies have been able to gain any attention from investors, which has caused their shares to languish even as stock markets in New York have rallied over the last few years.

    At the same time, these New York-listed companies are looking enviously at a Chinese stock market rally that has seen the major indexes more than double over the last year. I’ve previously written that much of the money backing this latest privatization wave appears to be speculative funds linked to the China stock market rally. Thus the wave could come to a screeching halt and many of the announced deals could collapse if the Chinese stock market rally sputters, which could be starting to happen.

  • Reply to

    SINA

    by starcutspin Jun 19, 2015 9:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    As I have said multiple times, when new home prices are released Tuesday June 30, and then when their earnings are released Aug 20, we have two major catalysts for stock price improvement. If the numbers next week are indeed good and SFUN takes off we are going to be really hacked off investors. Wait and watch.

  • Reply to

    Upcoming Q2

    by ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:38 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    "The only thing I do no like here is 7.39 offer"

    Well, this "only thing" is EVERYTHING. As you said, he has every prerogative to do so. Problem is, the stock was 15 a bit over a year ago. Anyone holding over a year is royally screwed. And the new home market is rebounding as I type this. Stock could easily reach double figures after the next CC around Aug 20. Easy.

  • Reply to

    SINA

    by starcutspin Jun 19, 2015 9:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 24, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Zhou put a floor in at least for SINA, gave them an option for around 8.35, something like that. On LEJU, ie.

    Should all email zhou and complain as LT shareholders are being taken to the proverbial woodshed

    zhouxin at ehousechina

  • Reply to

    Upcoming Q2

    by ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:38 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    What will be particular troubling for Zhou and SINA to keep this low ball bid is that the entire process takes about six months, and in this time there will be numerous types of fuel to move this stock notably higher. Zhou has really stuck it to us pretty good here. He also needs to know that to re-list in China could take another year or so from when he de-lists here. That boom market over there could be fizzling out. I don't see why he doesn't keep the main business here or whatever, and move a portion over to China. That way he is participating in the coming rally here and will still have his fingers in the Chinese pie. His timing here makes no sense for investors other than him.

  • ksn_44 by ksn_44 Jun 23, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    The news continues to be positive as far as transactions AND ESPECIALLY PRICING. So we are going to have a nice-sized beat come Q2 which would be around Aug 20. Also, next week we will have MOM and YOY pricing out for June and it is going to be solid as well. We have as a MINIMUM these two events to provide a tail wind for an appreciation in EJ and LEJU stock prices. Unfortunately, EJ is saddled with a unconscionable low ball bid from Zhou and a couple of his cronies.

    **********************************************

    THE average cost of new homes continued to rise in Shanghai last week amid a robust sentiment in the luxury segment, latest market data showed.

    New homes, excluding government-funded affordable housing, were sold for a record 35,505 yuan (US$5,719) per square meter on average during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, up 4.7 percent week on week, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released yesterday.

    But the area of new homes sold fell 1.1 percent to 246,700 square meters. “Inadequate supply of new houses over the past few weeks, unfavorable weather conditions as well as the recent plunge of the country’s stock market all damped home seekers’ momentum, with weekly transactions hovering around 250,000 square meters for the third consecutive week,” said Lu Qilin, a researcher at Deovolente.

    “However, the luxury segment continued to outperform the mass market which led to another weekly price record.”

    Tomson Riviera, the city’s most costly apartment project located in Lujiazui, the Pudong New Area, sold a 1,207-square-meter duplex last week for 243 million yuan, breaking the previous price record for a single apartment in Shanghai. In April, an apartment at the same project sold for 228 million yuan, Deovolente data showed. A separate report yesterday by Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co showed the area of new homes sold for an average of over 60,000 yuan per square meter rose 11.1 percent last week from the previous week

  • Reply to

    SINA

    by starcutspin Jun 19, 2015 9:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 19, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    This was pre-arranged, don't kid yourself. They just announced it now to eliminate any notion of impropriety. With SINA's investment in LEJU, however, could mean a nice buyout premium ???

  • Reply to

    I'm surprised

    by alex_iff Jun 18, 2015 1:20 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 19, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    What if Shanghai collapses? Then all bets are off. And EJ gets reduced to trash level, bargain basement levels. Almost gots to have a risk of failure premium built in.

    As it is, justice for this cheapo buyout would be if EJ re-lists in Shanghai, and then they get pummeled there also.

  • Reply to

    EJ is definitely a buy here

    by alex_iff Jun 15, 2015 12:35 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 15, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    Nothing is 100%. Financing could fall through, Zhou could fall victim to the anti corruption campaign, a dog could run out and bite him hospitalizing him for months, whatever, you get the point. But you are right there is money to be made. The qualifier is that if the deal does not get done for a longggg time due to, again, whatever. That whatever is the risk.

    Buy some APPL, you'll sleep better.

  • Reply to

    Comparative on CEO's

    by ksn_44 Jun 14, 2015 12:12 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 15, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    What does this have to do with CEO's reimbursing investors? And what does this have to do with the company going under?

    My point is as a CEO you have a fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder value. I feel that as the stock was 15 one year ago, and it is now being taken out at 7, this is not maximizing s'holder value. This is a selfishly motivated take out. From your reasoning as to him not taking us out at 4, why did he not take us out at 34? I am sure this #$%$ regrets not taking the company private at 4 or 5, you can bet on that.

    Chinese RE is on the mend. We are most likely going to annihilate numbers for Q2. If you read the Yahoo Estimates, SFUN is projected to make far less than EJ for both Fiscal 2015 and 2016. Yet SFUN's stock is (or was Friday) near 10. WE ARE BEING TAKEN OUT FOR 35% LESS THAN WHERE SFUN IS TRADING NOW!!!!

    Again, it matters whether you have $5000 invested or $500,000. If you have $5000, comme si comme sa. So be it. Everything is relative. You can't have that much in it, or you bought at 4 or 5. If so, may the gods be with you. Otherwise, you would be screaming to the heavens.

    He obviously holds no regard for LT shareholders. I will note for you that Kylin has bought MILLIONS of shares and has held them for AT LEAST A YEAR. I can't imagine what Ted Kang is thinking, cannot even imagine.

  • Reply to

    Comparative on CEO's

    by ksn_44 Jun 14, 2015 12:12 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 15, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    " CEOs are responsible for a lot of things, but stock price is not one of them, at least to the investors unless there is a fraud."

    Wow. This is a new one. If he isn't, WHO IS?

    NOTE: And, yes, I do blame him for taking us private at 7.38. And further note, see above on SINA's CEO. Yes, the CEO can and should be proactive in appeasing shareholders. They are the ones who share in the ownership of his business! You are not supposed to screw them. You obviously have a trifle in the stock, I don't.

    US investors are telling these Chinese companies if the CEO wants to invest in the company, we will respond to the stock price. It ain't much more complicated than that, abacus, Yes, Zhou has every right to buyout the company, but he also has a fiduciary responsibility to shareholders to maximize shareholder value, and he copped out. The SINA CEO's actions were with shareholders in mind. You should see how plainly obvious this is, SINA was a dog for a year and a half as well.

  • SINA CEO.......On June 1, invests $456M into the company. The stock at the time was 40. Two weeks later the stock is 60. The CEO makes an investment and the stock goes bonkers. Shows US-listed Chinese stock investors will respond to CEO's that value their shareholders.

    EJ CEO......Makes a low ball buyout offer of 7.38. Attempting to bludgeon investors by stealing the company. Stock IPO'ed at a13.80 seven years ago. CEO has been responsible for basically halving shareholder value and bailing out at half the IPO price after 7 years of business operations. And he gets increased stock options every year and a healthy bump to his CEO 7 figure salary as well.

    What a country!! You gotta love it. Now, aren't you glad you put your money into EJ and not SINA??!!

  • Reply to

    Why not buy here?

    by drinkdakoolaid Jun 11, 2015 12:23 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Jun 11, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    What if it takes a year? Or longer?

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