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QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST) Message Board

ksn_44 150 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 11:39 AM Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 2, 2014 12:46 PM Flag

    LEJU just went red on a 3.1%+ day for the Shanghai Composite, a potential bottoming in the RE sector, loosening under way and with all likelihood more loosening coming as well. Man, what is wrong with this picture. Is it short sellers or just a malaise about the whole Chinese internet sector?

    I note we did not have any announcements about a hook up of EJ with a notable company ala SFUN in the past few months. This was a surprise to me. The stock most definitively needs a juicer, and I still suspect this may be the catalyst EJ/LEJU need so desperately.

  • It's a bull market; Shanghai soars 3.1%
    The PBOC's rate cut (and hopes for more) continues to work its magic as Shanghai jumps the most in 15 months and hits a 3-year high. It's also now ahead by 31% YTD - the best annual gain since 2009.A gauge of financial shares jumped 6.7%, the most among 10 tracked industry groups.

  • "We expect such strong momentum to proceed through the end of this year," Huang said. "It is possible that December may overtake October to become the best performing month in 2014 if real estate developers remain discreet in price hike amid continuously recovering sentiment."

    *********************************************************************************************

    “We expect the interest rate cut to kick in next year,” said Bai Yanjun, research director for the China Index Academy.

    “We still believe the market is under downward pressure for the rest of 2014 because the current home inventory levels in first-tier and major second-tier cities are still high,” he said.

    China cut both lending and deposit rates just over a week ago, and analysts said home mortgage buyers would be among the biggest beneficiaries.

    “The rate cut sends a strong signal that the property market will likely bottom out soon,” Lu Ting, China economist for Merrill Lynch Hong Kong, said in a research note.

  • NEW home purchases in Shanghai remained above one million square meters for the second straight month in November as robust sentiment continued to prevail among home seekers.

    Sales of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, fell 4.7 percent from October to 1.04 million square meters, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a report released today.

    "We saw a notable rebound in buyers' momentum particularly during the last few days of November, partly helped by the central bank's cut in interest rate on November 21," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin.

    Uwin data showed that the average daily transaction volume of new homes totaled 45,700 square meters during the last seven days of November and they soared to 66,700 square meters between the last three days.

    However, robust sales were still outnumbered by supply which indicated developers' eagerness to unload their continuously high inventory.

    More than 1.23 million square meters of new houses were released to the local market last month, Uwin data showed. That compared to 1.19 million square meters in October and 1.31 million square meters in September.

    By price, new homes sold last month averaged 27,683 yuan (US$4,516) per square meter, up 0.5 percent from a month earlier.

    Citywide, mid- to low-end houses remained most popular among buyers with seven of the ten best-selling projects last month costing no more than 30,000 yuan per square meter. A residential development in Zhoukang, Nanhui of Pudong New Area, became the most sought after project after selling 178 units for an average price of 18,808 yuan per square meter, according to Uwin.

  • Reply to

    Note on Deutsche on Chinese housing

    by ksn_44 Dec 1, 2014 9:16 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 1, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    bill, I can about guaranty you that the moves the PBOC has made of late are not going to HURT the housing market. The monthly numbers out of China last night were "not bad". The government is actually achieving what they set out to do, but their intended goal is obviously negatively effecting Chinese housing stocks. This must be a response to selling after the dividend and share capture date, and the price now is down from where it was before the rate cut. What is interesting is that SFUN does not have any ex div date and they are summarily being ripped as well. So who knows. The facts are though is that there is a bit of a rebound. Why this is not being priced in sort of fits with the lack of respect EJ has in the industry.

    Keep in mind estimates for next year are currently at .83, and some analysts (see the myriad articles I have posted) are indicating we are at or near or bottom, so perhaps that is even a lowball. Not trying to spin anything based on misconceptions, just laying out some facts. And here is some more data
    on what happened this past month

    **********************************************************************************************

    Although the headline number was decidedly lower, major cities showed mixed results. Prices in Beijing were actually up +3.1% YoY, but down -0.62% MoM, while Shanghai prices were also higher, +5.23% YoY and +1.18% MoM. Prices in Tianjin were lower -3.03% YoY (+0.53% MoM), as were prices in Chongqing (-6.65% YoY, -1.81% MoM). Major cities in southern China were mixed, with Shenzhen reporting +0.66% price growth YoY ( +0.95% MoM), while Guangzhou prices fell -2.81% YoY and -0.78% MoM.

  • At some point investors are going to start buying on the come. Obviously we are at or near a bottom and the smart money always preaches BUY AT THE BOTTOM.

    *******************************************************************************************

    A surprise cut to benchmark interest rates by the People’s Bank of China earlier this month defibrillated the sector, sending the HSCPCI up around 5% in one day. Beijing’s stance on the property market has also shifted in recent months. In August, it began easing restrictive policies on home purchases and mortgages – redefining, for example, first-time home buyers to include someone who had already paid off their mortgages, thereby reducing the down payment required to 30% from levels as high as 60%. Already, some 34 out of 47 cities have relaxed restrictions on property purchases this year.

    “We expect the market to recover in the next 12 months, in three phases,” notes Deutsche Bank analyst Jason Ching. It begins with more normal levels of inventory in the fourth quarter and 2015’s first quarter, partly as developers cut back construction and existing housing supply is bought. Next, Ching sees average selling prices bottoming out in the second quarter of 2015, before beginning a gradual recovery in the second half of 2015.

    That’s certainly good news for China Vanke. A top pick of many analysts, the company has a sound credit profile and managed to generate robust sales this year. “Despite the market slowdown, and the high base last year, Vanke grew contracted sales 16% year-on-year to 150 billion yuan as of September - versus 6% on average for major developers,” noted Jefferies analyst Venant Chiang.

  • China’s new-home prices fell in November for the seventh straight month, but at a slightly milder pace for the second straight month, as Beijing’s recent move to cut benchmark interest rates further boosted sentiment among home buyers who had initially warmed up to the market after an earlier policy move to loosen mortgage restrictions.

    Average new-home prices fell 0.38% in November, slightly moderating from the 0.4% decline in October and slowing from a 0.9% slip in September, data provider China Real Estate Index System said Sunday.

    The fall in September marked the largest month-to-month drop since the survey started in 2010. Home prices started to fall month-to-month since May this year, which was the first decline since June 2012.

    Of the 100 cities surveyed, 76 showed a decline in home prices, up from 73 in October.

    “Given strong policy support and credit easing, we believe the 2015 physical market, especially in Tier 1 and 2 cities, will be much more resilient,” said Citi Research analysts Oscar Choi and Marco Sze in a recent note. They added that they expect a total of a one-percentage-point rate cut before the first half of 2015, and several cuts to the banks’ reserve requirements would contribute to a new liquidity-loosening cycle.

  • Reply to

    More to come

    by ksn_44 Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 29, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Yeah, when looking back, this TH Capital call before earnings was DEAD ON.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 28, 2014 9:14 PM Flag

    It is a bitter pill to swallow. On that we most definitely agree.

    I see you bought that company that made $.52 last Q. Their stock price is even more laughable than EJ's. I mean $.52 and the stock is 5 bucks???!!!! Huh??

  • Almost unbelievable. The sword of Damacles hangs over this stock. We have a full blown easing going on and very few have taken the bait. And you are right, venetian, some of these publications, and the ditty from Fitch, have taken a bit of the wind out of the sails. Although I can say this, their comments have not effected Chinese mainland property stocks one iota.

  • Reply to

    Whopper of a DEC 10 CALL purchase

    by ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:46 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    I alone did not spot this.............................Shares of E-House (China) Holdings Limited (NYSE:EJ) were the target of some unusual options trading on Wednesday. Stock traders purchased 3,894 call options on the company, Stock Ratings Network reports. This represents an increase of 1,076% compared to the average daily volume of 331 call options.

  • Reply to

    EJ Good Prospects with China QE

    by miamigent1 Nov 26, 2014 11:21 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    you get 5% of your EJ shares in LEJU stock. Again, as I mentioned, nice little divvy also payable in January.

  • Reply to

    EJ Good Prospects with China QE

    by miamigent1 Nov 26, 2014 11:21 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    bill, Friday is cut off for the $.20 dividend and also free LEJU shares. Perhaps those who have wanted in are in but I suspect volume could be explosive again Friday.

  • Reply to

    Whopper of a DEC 10 CALL purchase

    by ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:46 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    Wonder if it was the same fund? Another whopper on the January 10 CALL. 1076 contracts. Plus action on the 9 and 10 CALLS for Feb. See almost a like number of PUTS though on the 10, 11 and 12. Obviously some hedging going on.

  • Whale or whopper, call it what you will. 2353 contracts. This is a monster purchase reeking of optimism that we visit AT LEAST 10+ before Dec 20.

  • Reply to

    EJ Good Prospects with China QE

    by miamigent1 Nov 26, 2014 11:21 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    Lower mortgage rates. Therefore, more people buying homes. Banks can lend more now also. Can't be much simpler than that. And keep in mind, from all indications, this is JUST THE START OF THEIR LOWERING PROGRAM.

  • Reply to

    Most significant loosening this year per E House

    by ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:03 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 26, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Using the new definition, ordinary homes would have accounted for 63.6 per cent of residential property transactions in Shanghai in the first 10 months, up from the actual 35.8 per cent now, according to consultancy Shanghai Deovolente Realty.

    Ding said primary-market homebuyers would have saved on deed taxes worth 500 million yuan in the first 10 months, and those buying from the secondary market could have paid almost 2 billion yuan less tax as buyers of ordinary homes are entitled to lower tax rates.

    The media have reported that some sellers in the secondary market have already defaulted on their contracts, as they wanted to raise the asking price even though they had accepted deposits from buyers. In the secondary home markets, buyers pay all taxes relevant to the transactions.

    Apart from paying less tax, first-home buyers of ordinary homes are allowed to put down a deposit 30 per cent of the transaction value, instead of double that amount or more.

    They can also access the cheapest mortgage loans offered by commercial lenders, up to 30 per cent below the benchmark rates under the current regulatory framework, although in reality it is more often less than 10 per cent now.

    The same will apply to those buyers who have cleared up their first and only mortgage loans. Multiple home owners do not qualify for these policies.

  • Shanghai widened its definition of "ordinary" or mass-market homes last week amid a raft of policy relaxation measures to speed up property sales as inventories rose to a record high.

    The move, on the heels of policies to make it easier to borrow from commercial banks and the city's housing provident fund, means homebuyers will pay less tax and qualify for cheaper loans.

    However, analysts said it would be unlikely to fuel a rapid pickup in home prices at this time.

    It followed a similar step taken by Beijing and analysts expect Guangzhou and Shenzhen will fall in line soon.

    These four cities are the only ones that still maintain home purchase restrictions which have been scrapped elsewhere on the mainland in the past few months.

    "This is the most forceful policy in Shanghai so far this year," Ding Yuzu, a co-president of real estate services provider E-House (China), said after the announcement on November 13.

    Huang Hetao, the research head of Century 21 China Real Estate, agreed but cautioned against being overly optimistic, citing high inventories and meagre mortgage rate discounts even though the new policy would boost short-term transactions.

    Centaline China data showed Shanghai's home stock rose to a record high of 13.5 million sq metres as of November 10.

    According to the new definition, effective last Thursday, a home of up to 4.5 million yuan (HK$5.7 million) in Shanghai's inner circle will be regarded as "ordinary", compared with a previous ceiling of 3.3 million yuan imposed in 2012. The threshold was raised to 3.1 million yuan from 2 million yuan for areas between the inner and outer circles of the city. Beyond that outer circle, it was increased to 2.3 million yuan from 1.6 million yuan.

  • Reply to

    Good deal of CALL buying on the Dec 9's and 10's

    by ksn_44 Nov 25, 2014 12:55 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 25, 2014 11:01 PM Flag

    Note the news on property. Almost all, save for Fitch, are unabatedly positive. This is pure mystery to me. Rate cuts are being lined up and this only means good news for property. Wish someone could explain this stock action to me. Aren't you supposed to be buying on rate cuts, particularly in beaten down stocks?

    **************************************************************************************
    “The rate cut should spur residential property sales in the next few months in conjunction with the PBOC’s mortgage-policy relaxation” on Sept. 30, Moody’s senior analyst Franco Leung wrote in a report. As mass-market buyers generally rely on mortgage financing, “expectations that borrowing costs will decline will likely encourage them to purchase homes, which will boost sales volumes for developers.” Moody’s expects developers’ sales will likely move closer to their 2014 full-year targets.

    The rate cut “is a strong catalyst for the China property sector,” said Johnson Hu, Hong Kong-based property analyst at CIMB Securities Research. “Home buyers may see it as a signal of property market stabilization, lifting sentiment and thus boosting home sales and lowering housing inventory.”

QNST
5.78+0.05(+0.87%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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