Someone wants in badly.
EJ LEJU movement due to the MOM new home price increase shows the value of pricing compared with transactions. Transactions mean far less when not accompanied by rising prices. This confirms the stock itself follows housing prices, particularly YOY and even as we have seen MOM. We get the official word on prices around the 18th from the govt.
We would get another big kick from YOY prices but I don't think they turn positive until the end of August or even September. As we are still 30+ percent lower than SFUN, and our earnings will be every bit as good if not better, comparatively we still have catching up to do.
Now perhaps that investors are convinced prices are on the upswing, we can continue to catch a bid. Our margins should improve as well. All in all, we are shaping up for a solid beat to Q2 numbers.
I am a little off on my SINA numbers..........................................Sina and Weibo are now respectively up 39% and 22% since Sina CEO Charles Chao announced on Monday he's investing $456M in Sina.
Until today possibly? Man, we are at 4.6M shares with an hour and a half to go.
SFUN is nearly 40% higher than EJ, even higher than LEJU. And check out these estimates.
EJ EPS for 2015 is .31 and for 2016 is .64
EJ rev growth for 2015 is 20% and for 2016 14%
LEJU EPS for 2015 is .64 and for 2016 .80.
LEJU rev growth for 2015 is 23% and for 2016 20%
SFUN EPS for 2015 is .19 and for 2016 is .43
SFUN rev growth for 2015 is 20% and for 2016 is 28%.
And for this we are priced nearly 40% less than SFUN?? Huh? Somebody give us some respect. How about a MANAGEMENT INVESTMENT ala SINA which has driven the stock up almost 30% in a week (note: I have let IR know how I feel about EJ doing the same...cmon, let's step up to the plate here!!!).
And look how their CEO has stepped up to the plate. There is incredible pressure on ZHOU here to deliver, otherwise he looks as if he does not care. And relatively speaking, SINA compared to EJ LEJU has not performed that badly. In the past year, EJ LEJU have been DECIMATED.
CEO’s Surprise Sends SINA Shares Soaring
By Evan Hanson in Insider Trading,News
Published: June 2, 2015 at 9:02 am
Two weeks after reporting a disappointing $10 million loss for its fiscal first quarter (a loss that was at least less bad than expected), China’s Sina Corp (NYSE:SINA) is giving investors something less ambivalent to cheer about this week.
Specifically, on Monday, SINA issued a press release announcing that its Chairman and CEO, Mr. Charles Chao, has entered into a share purchase agreement with the company he runs. Under the terms of the “subscription” agreement, SINA will issue 11 million new shares and sell them for $456 million to a “special purpose vehicle” owned and controlled by Chao.
In effect, therefore, SINA’s CEO has agreed to directly pay more than the going rate for SINA shares, and to acquire roughly 16% of (what will soon be) the company’s outstanding share count. Furthermore, as part of the agreement Chao has confirmed that he will not resell the shares in question for at least six months after the transaction closes.
What does it mean to you?
Just prior to Chao’s announcement, SINA shares were trading for $40.73 per share. The CEO’s offer to pay $41.49 for the shares therefore speaks strongly of the value he perceives in his company’s shares. The size of the purchase — again, about 16% of shares outstanding-after-the-issuance — tells us he thinks the shares are even more undervalued than the price he’s paying for them.
NOTE: Luxury home purchases would drive HOUSING PRICES.
Restrictions on Foreign Real Estate Ownership May Be Cancelled Nationwide
Rumors swirled this weekend in the real estate industry. It is believed the government is about to lift restrictions on foreign ownership. Currently foreigners living in China or companies operating in China are limited in where and when they can buy property. If the restrictions are lifted, foreign real estate investors would be allowed to buy investment properties in China. It is believed that high end and luxury markets in first-tier cities may benefit immediately from a lifting of restrictions on foreign home ownership.
One city in China has already cancelled restrictions on foreigners as of May 6: Jingmen, Guangdong.
Among the country's 10 largest cities including Beijing and Shanghai, the average new home price rose nearly 1 percent from a month earlier to 19,148 yuan per square meter. That accelerated from a 0.12 percent month-on-month gain in April.
"The central bank's further cut in interest rate in May, favourable public housing fund policies introduced by some local governments, coupled with abundant new supply released by real estate developers, jointly fueled new home transactions in some cities," the academy said. "Looking forward, an overall rebound in residential property market has become quite evident now but high inventory still exists in some cities."
In Shanghai, for example, new home prices rose to a record in May amid robust sales, according to a separate industry report released today.
The average price of new houses, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, jumped 8.2 percent from April to 31,832 yuan per square meter last month, the highest ever registered in the city. The area of new homes sold, meanwhile, climbed 14.7 percent from a month earlier to 1.43 million square meters, the highest volume for May since 2010, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said.
"Medium- to high-end homes accounted for more than half of the transaction in May with 51 percent of new houses sold last month bearing a price tag of 25,000 yuan per square meter and above, pushing the average price to a record then," said Lu Qilin, a researcher at Deovolente. "That was an increase of 5.9 percentage points from April and a rise of 12.6 percentage points from same period a year ago."
On the supply side, 1.07 million square meters of new residential developments were released in the city last month, a rise of 6 percent from April, Deovolente data showed.
Here are the critical numbers for YOY.
On a year-on-year basis house prices fell 3.73 per cent in May, compared with a decline of 4.46 per cent in April, according to the CIA.
The average price in China's top 10 cities was 19,148 yuan per square metre, down 2.33 per cent from a year ago, it said, slowing from a fall of 3.46 per cent last month.
And here is more of wha the PBOC is doing and WILL BE DOING for us.
The PBoC has reduced the percentage of funds banks must hold in reserve twice this year, in a bid to boost lending, and analysts broadly expect policymakers to announce further easing in the coming months.
The stock historically has risen as prices rise in Chinese housing. Now this is only MOM, the YOY numbers are still down. For some reason I do not understand, the rise in TRANSACTION volume is given far less weight than when compared to the rise in new home prices. Not sure why that is. Perhaps it is because even the smallest percent increase in the price of a home increases the value of the home THAT much more. I would presume that is it.
I believe as prices increase, it will allow the company to offer less discounting on their coupons, therefore increasing their ugly rise in SGA expenses.
MOM prices had been down 12 out of the last 13 months. The only blip was January. So the fact that MOM prices was .50. This is fantastic news. However, even better news will be when the YOY prices increase. This is probably a bit of a ways off. Here is a nice summary:
New home prices on the mainland saw their first month-on-month rise in May since April last year, a private survey showed yesterday, indicating a recovery is taking shape due to supportive government policies.
However, analysts cautioned against premature price gains in cities still facing severe gluts as the market becomes increasingly polarised. An index measuring average new home prices in 288 cities inched up 0.05 per cent from April, consultancy China Real Estate Information Corp said.
Prices rose in 143 cities, up from April's 141. The gainers were led by four cities in Guangdong, with Jiangmen advancing 3.84 per cent, Shantou 3.58 per cent, Shenzhen 2.21 per cent and Maoming 2.11 per cent.
"We expect to see rising transactions but stable prices in June," the consultancy said in a report. "As the market warms up, developers constantly talk about raising prices, but few have truly done so. Instead, we have seen various marketing campaigns and even quiet price cuts in some projects to boost sales."
Data from the consultancy showed home sales increased 5 per cent last month from April in first and second-tier cities, while third-tier cities lagged with a gain of 3 per cent.
There have been regular reports over the past few weekends of developers selling out all units on offer within a couple of hours in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing.
The momentum is building, with the government expected to roll out more measures when needed, including a possible third interest rate cut this year before September, to stimulate housing demand and rein in an economic slowdown.
One possible step, to be used with caution, would be to relax home purchase restrictions in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, which account for a combined 10 per cent of property sales in terms of floor space.
Starting from yesterday, buyers in Beijing are allowed to borrow more from the local government's housing provident fund with fewer restrictions and at much lower mortgage rates than those offered by commercial banks.
"Looking ahead, the trend is clear about an overall market recovery, but some cities still face high inventories," said another major consultancy, China Index Academy.
It suggested local governments should introduce more supportive policies, while developers should optimise their timing and pricing of project launches to quicken destocking efforts.
Data from the academy also showed the average new home price inched up 0.45 per cent last month from April to 10,569 yuan (HK$13,380) per square metres across 100 cities.
And Beijing stepped up with more stimulus.
Now we see how the stock responds.
June 1, 2015, 12:09 A.M. ET
China’s Developers Soar As New Home Prices Rose
By Shuli Ren
Average new home prices in 100 cities tracked by Soufun (SFUN) rose 0.45% month-to-month in May. 48 of the 100 cities saw their price rose.
Shenzhen rebounded the fastest, with new home price rising 4.7% from a year ago and 2.7% from April. Shanghai, Wuhan, Nanjing and Beijing follow.
Meanwhile, Beijing announced easier mortgage rules, effective today. Home buyers in Beijing will only need a minimum down payment of 20%, regardless off the size of their apartments, as long as they do not own any other homes at present, according to Party mouthpiece Global Times.
Property developers soared today.
I do not dispute your notion of propaganda against Chinese stocks listed here. This is a true statement. If they were listed in Shanghai, EJ and LEJU would both be trading in the 20's. All you have to do is look at equivalent realtors listed in Shanghai, notably Shenzhen World Union Properties.
As it is for the most part, based on future earnings of .31, EJ is probably fairly valued. What is missing is the add on from the new businesses. No credit is being given for this at all. LEJU is forecast to make .65, so EJ is bearing the cost load. LEJU probably should be double digits, but as you say, anything chinese listed here is looked at unfavorably. And I am not sure why either.
I was referring to future forecasts on YAHOO. If you have different numbers showing massively larger earnings indications, please share them.
Note this is not an emerging company. They are well entrenched and have been for years. They are notably a first to market in OTO, which is a plus. However, they are making little money due to margin pressure. You need to listen to the LEJU CC. They are scrambling to diversify.
I do not mean to mislead. But the stock is at 5 bucks and change. I do not set the price of the stock. Mainland listed Chinese realtors are trading at PE's in the 70's. If they want value, they have to privatize and re-list in Shanghai. Here they have no respect, part of it deserved, and a large part undeserved as well.
I'm not the one who has put out .31 for the year. You do the math. Is 6 bucks a fair price for a stock about to earn .31 annually. You tell me then. I did not set the .05 for Q2. Revenue estimates for Q2 are a quarter billion and they are going to make a nickel? And you think these are fixed costs for Q1? Is that what it is. Wow. Maybe I need to go back to school. And .31 for a billion in sales, and you think this is OK? There is a reason the stock is at 5 and change, friends. I wish I were wrong, but the past 18 months have not been, to put it mildly, very well received by the investment community.
So the stock price is not indicative of true value? Gosh, would you mind telling my accountant that my portfolio is not really representative of the true value of my stocks then. I need someone like you to explain that to him.
And listen, realtors do not have debt. They all have a goodly amount of cash. They are ASSET LIGHT. But this means nothing, but when everyone else is getting in the business because your widget is the same as theirs and they are easy to make.
Actually, very little proportionately is being spent on the new businesses. If you would listen to the CC's, the outlays are minimal comparatively. The COST OF DOING BUSINESS, however, has ramped REMARKABLY. This is the sticking point. You cannot refer to old formulaic nonsense like THEY HAVE LOTS OF CASH AND NO DEBT. This isn't high school stock market class.
Grossly undervalued? And for 18 months now? Wow. Someone is not telling the tutes and the fundies that. Would you please call them up and let them know. My gosh, people. Wake up.
Again did any of you listen to the LEJU CC? Did you hear the questions on margins from CLSA, Morgan, Oppenheimer, et al? Did you hear them? Huh? Well, if not, you need to. This is about MARGINS MARGINS MARGINS. The new biz spend is insignificant at this point. Listen to the calls, friends. For now, we in deep doo doo. Don't blame me, look at the share price.
All the analysts, and the company for that matter, is aware of what has transpired. The OTO biz just got to be dog eat dog. Fierce would be an understatement. EJ LEJU is fighting to survive. The stock prices are indicative of the fact that investors have no idea whether these three new businesses will transform the company. They are a longggg ways away. A quick miracle would be a buyout. Zhou is scrambling for sure. I fear we tread water or worse for a considerable period. The major imminent event again is May housing prices. Price rises have always seemed to drive the stock price here. Let's see what happens this weekend. We got us a long wait. Dead money is another word for it. I wish I could explain it differently. I wish someone would prove me wrong.
In looking at recent events, it would seem EJ LEJU is transitioning itself with three other businesses (home furnishings, shui on community and financing) that will become in their viewpoint as much a bottom line driver as the OTO transaction business. It is obvious from the 35% SGA increase and 4% REVENUE increase that the company is bleeding badly internally. OTO has few barriers to entry and it is probably only a matter of time before BABA and/or BIDU or any massive Chinese developer enters this field and puts extreme pressure on EJ LEJU. Right now, there is just little bottom line to be achieved in the face of increasing competition.
If you listened to either conference call, most questions were about MARGINS MARGINS and then MARGINS. They have rapidly declined but the LEJU CFO did say they should not get any worse.
It appears EJ is the load bearer for the costs, as estimates for the full year '15 are a paltry .31 now. So a 5.50 stock price represents a 17 PE which sounds about right. LEJU on the other hand is to recover nicely in the second Q and on throughout the year.
As to the three new businesses, they are months if not years away from generating any revenue. All they remain right now are cost black holes. But you have to give mgmt credit for looking to the future. They see the writing on the wall. OTO although a healthy revenue generating business, is not overly profitable, and in down times the costs only get exponentially worse. And with the big boys about to get into OTO, we have to PRAY for a buyout or that we do not get squashed like a bug. LEJU seems to feel they have the best multi-layered biz model in OTO and that should help them survive. But we need more than survival, we need a miracle. The MOM housing numbers on June 1, if they can show their first healthy rise in a longgggg time, this may help us. Other than that, transactions no longer are the magic bullet to drive stock price appreciation for this company.
Major Steel mills in Eastern China lower scrap buying prices
May 26, 2015 08:22 GMT Source:scrap monster
Tags: rebar prices, scrap prices
Author: Paul Ploumis26 May 2015 Last updated at 02:52:32 GMT
BEIJING (Scrap Monster): The declining rebar prices have led to further drop in scrap buying prices by steel mills in Eastern China region. The mills see no recovery for scrap prices in the immediate near term. Sources indicate that scrap purchasing prices may fall further down.
Jiangsu Shagang Group announced a cut of Yuan 20 per mt in scrap buying prices last week. This was the first cut announced by the company during this month. Shagang had kept its scrap buying prices unchanged since April 26th. Post cut, the purchasing price for heavy melting scrap with thickness 6mm and above by Shagang Group remained at Yuan 1,450 per mt, inclusive of VAT delivered to Zhangjiagang. The company had lowered its prices several times during March this year.
Yonggang Group in the same province also lowered the scrap purchasing prices by Yuan 20 per mt delivered to Zhangjiagang. This is the second round of cuts by the company following the one during May 6th due to maintenance of one of its EAFs.
Dongfang Special Steel too announced cut of Yuan 20 per mt in purchasing price of heavy melting scrap of thickness 6 mm and above. Post cut, the scrap buying prices remained at Yuan 1,430 per mt, inclusive of VAT for deliveries to Changzhou. The mill had announced seven rounds of cuts during March this year. This is the first cut since April 18th.
Also, Maanshan Iron & Steel announced a cut of Yuan 20 per mt on scrap buying prices during the week. After the announcement of price cut, the company’s buy price for plate cut-offs with thickness 6mm and above now stands at Yuan 1,510 per mt, inclusive of VAT for deliveries to Maanshan. The company had lowered the scrap buying prices six times during the month of March, accounting for a cumulative drop of Yuan 150 per mt in buy prices. This is the first cut announced since April 26th.
Shanghai booming another week. Even if EJ reports horrible numbers on a YOY basis, they will certainly have to hightlight the Q2 numbers which should be VERY good...
Strong sales of new homes in Shanghai
By Cherry Cao | May 11, 2015, Monday | THE area of new homes sold stayed above the 300,000-square-meter threshold for the third straight week in Shanghai as strong momentum extended further.
A total of 312,400 square meters of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, were sold during the seven-day period ended Sunday, a week-over-week decrease of 3.9 percent, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.
"The housing market maintained its strength for another week despite the retreat," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "New supply, meanwhile, also surged during the period which could be viewed as further evidence for optimism among real estate developers."
Last week, 329,300 square meters of new houses were released to the market, a week-on-week surge of 114.7 percent, according to Deovolente data.
By price, new homes sold last week cost an average 30,585 yuan (US$4,933) per square meter, up 1.2 percent from the previous week.
Citywide, half of the city's 10 best-selling projects last week cost more than 30,000 yuan per square meter, indicating robust demand in the medium- to high-end segment.
In the luxury sector, sales of new properties with a price tag of more than 50,000 yuan per square meter fell to 231 units last week, a weekly drop of 33 units.
"So far this month, the city's new home market seemed pretty good and it is very likely that May will see the figure exceed 1 million square meters," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co. "The central government's latest cut in interest rates will certainly be another boost
Yang Hongxu, vice-president of the E-House China R&D Institute, said that with interest rates expected to be cut again and more buyers coming forward than before, the current upswings in sales and prices in first-tier cities are likely to accelerate....
New housing projects in first-tier cities enjoyed robust sales over the Labor Day holiday, extending a brisk April for the sector as previous government stimulus policies continued to filter through to the market.
A total of 201 new homes were sold and registered on the Beijing housing authority's website during the two days, compared with 169 a year ago. In Shenzhen, 195 units were sold and registered with its authority compared with just 49 a year earlier.
Taking the time lag between purchasing decisions and deals being concluded and officially registered into account, the surge reflected April's boom.
A more up-to-date number came from Centaline Property Agency, which said that in Guangzhou, 20 new projects opened for sale during the holiday, a 10 percent rise on last year, with 354 units sold on Friday and Saturday, a 30 percent rise on a year ago.
The hot sales streak continued the momentum started by stimulus measures announced at the end of March, which included a down payment ratio as low as 30 percent for second-home purchases.
According to the China Index Academy, SouFun Holdings Ltd's housing research unit, home sales in 28 cities it monitored during April increased 8.96 percent from March. Eighteen of those cities posted month-on-month gains, while sales fell in 10 cities.
First-tier cities posted a 31 percent surge in sales, second-tier cities rose 5 percent, while third-tier cities dropped 7 percent.
The findings chimed with Centaline's statistics, which also showed 17,191 second-hand homes were sold and registered in Beijing during April, the highest monthly figure in two years,
Some new projects in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen reportedly sold out within 24 hours of going on sale.
Weekly sales of new homes in Shanghai fell last week but a robust buying momentum helped them stay above the 300,000-square-meter level for a second week in a row.
The purchases of new homes, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, fell 13.2 percent to 325,200 square meters during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a report released yesterday.
"Despite the fall, the weekly volume still suggested rather robust buying momentum among home buyers," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin.
"Moreover, sales have notably outnumbered supply for two straight weeks which should be a quite good sign for the market."
About 153,400 square meters of new houses were released locally last week, down 33.4 percent from the previous week, Uwin data showed.
The new homes sold last week cost an average 30,227 yuan (U.S.$4,868) per square meter, a week-on-week rise of 4.4 percent.
A luxury development in Daning, Zhabei District, was the best-selling project in the city for the week when it sold 99 units at an average price of over 68,300 yuan, according to Uwin.
New home sales in April in Shanghai surged 59.3 percent from March to 1.24 million square meters, the highest since January, a separate report released by Uwin showed. The average price of new homes rose 5.3 percent month on month to 29,422 yuan per square meter.
New home supply also surged to a four-month high of 1 million square meters in April, up from 510,000 square meters in March.