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QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST) Message Board

ksn_44 158 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • this will lead to a cut in mortgage rates so housing will get some MAJOR jet fuel from this..............n response to both a slowing domestic and global economy, China has cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years.The People's Bank of China lowered one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 bps to 5.6% and reduced the one-year deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.75%.

  • Reply to

    The more spin

    by ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 10:36 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    You do realize the revenue guidance was only lowered between 4 and 6.5%, right? And those are both WORSE CASE scenarios. LEJU's revised guidance is a bit more. Granted, they should never have opened their big mouths about raising guidance in May in the first place. Granted again, earnings were a disappointment.

    But judging by the way they blew their guidance, it appears they could be just as wrong on the upside if housing starts cooking in November and December. Kind of scary though, seems as if the company is less beholden to the market and more locked in to what the government does with respect to controlling the RE market.

  • ksn_44 by ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I provide, the more LEJU goes down. No one seems to be listening.

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by bill1217 Nov 19, 2014 6:28 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    LEJU's miss was a trifle, as was there YE rev forecast. If the price was fair going into today, the punishment does not fit the crime here at all. Remember too, most pundits feel we are at or have passed the bottom due to govt stimulation in recent months.

  • Reply to

    5 LEJU shares for every 100 EJ you own

    by speedtrader555 Nov 19, 2014 8:49 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Nice little bonus I'd say.

    I still say if they had not raised guidance in May these numbers would not look so bad. They basically beat 2013 on all fronts. And again, 2013 was an epic year. The revision makes it look as if the business is performing poorly, which it is not. Someone raised everyone's expectations and we are being punished for that. Perhaps someone can look through the fog of war and see how well the business is really doing. Not as good as they thought it would do so obviously management did not foresee this poor of a year in general in Chinese RE. As to 2015, Zhou was positively ebullient. No specifics of course, but we will not know that if the market rebounds this business will follow and be a bit above the average.

    I don't think they pushed hard enough in emphasizing how well they did in relation to last year. Course in some respects they couldn't since they had an egg on their face from their miscalculation in May.

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by bill1217 Nov 19, 2014 6:28 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    OK, let's spin this a bit. Number 1, they beat last year's online services and Ecom services soundly. In fact, they trounced them. An last year was an epic year in Chinese RE. The primary RE biz was down 9%, in line with the industry. Even though transactions were actually UP from last year, albeit 2%.

    The guidance is still 20% AHEAD of last year. The major screw up was the guidance issued way back in May. I bet they never look that far out again. I remember when they gave that guidance the stock hardly reacted. No one believed they could look that far out, and they were right. The other negative is the spending on new programs. But they are still ahead of last year's numbers significantly. The stock has done nothing this year. It would seem investors knew this negative news was coming. Just a quick take. Going to listen to the CC now. By the way, they should fire whomever put out that raised guidance six months ago in an ambiguous market at best .

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by bill1217 Nov 19, 2014 6:28 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 7:24 AM Flag

    Worse than expected for sure. TH sure nailed it. So Goldman does not know everything. 8.52 x 9.06 at the moment.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Heck, buy it now for 5 cents on the dollar. Who knows how much money they saved, probably why the stock is trading higher. For once I can say, good move on mgmt's part.

  • Reply to

    what a joke?

    by yeewong168 Nov 14, 2014 3:12 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 18, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Now today it is not a joke. The fact remains, until they can show successive Q's of increasing revs and profits it will be a trading stock. For now, I am THRILLED BEYOND belief we are above .20.

  • CTC, a bit player, came in light on offline transactions. Kind of a foretelling for EJ's offline biz I would imagine. Now, can Ecommerce make up for that, and, even if they do, will the street focus on the slow offline?

    CTC, what a chump IR department, SFUN invested in them a couple of months ago and they did not even note that in the PR. How much they paying their PR people you gotta wonder?

  • Reply to

    More to come

    by ksn_44 Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 18, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    That is always overlooked, venetian, the fact that this modest decline in Chinese housing prices is something the govt has wanted for years, and the fact it they are getting exactly what they wanted. The headlines this morning all raged about the drop in housing prices, while buried in the articles were notes that the price decline is lessening MOM. Yes, we never seem to catch a break. Can they hit 230m tomorrow? Who knows. And at what expense to margins? Let's hope the CC EMPHASIS is on how the market has somewhat bottomed and they spell our their new initiatives line by line. I still am expecting a "hook up" mention tomorrow. Crossing my fingers.

  • ksn_44 by ksn_44 Nov 17, 2014 11:05 PM Flag

    6501 May 13 CALLS traded today. Someone sees a slow but sure recovery through the winter and spring.

  • Reply to

    More to come

    by ksn_44 Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 17, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Here are the details. When you read it, yes, you kind of believe them. You wonder how EJ can grow revs 10--15% from the previous Q like the analysts are calling for in light of the soft housing numbers experienced to date. It is almost a set up for disappointment. If they do miss our only hope some of that miss is baked in and they can make the revs up in the 4th Q....and have the outlook to see that.

    *********************************************************

    Firm believes E-House (NYSE:EJ) may report Q3 weaker than consensus as topline may be negatively impacted by softness in the offline brokerage service and margins may be impacted by its investments in new businesses.
    "While we believe the investments in these new businesses are positive for EJ’s long term growth, the near term margin impact can be meaningful. As such, we are lowering our rating from Buy to Hold until we see market stabilization and new businesses to make contribution to revenues."

  • Call selling sees limited upside in Chinese real-estate company E-House.

    optionMONSTER systems show that a block of 6,501 May 13 calls was sold for the bid price of $0.35 this morning. That was done against the previous open interest of just 5 contracts, so it is a new position.

    The calls could have been sold naked with an initial bearish bias. But they were more likely traded against a long-stock position in a covered-call strategy, which would be bullish up to the $13 strike price but not beyond. (See our Education section)

    EJ is up 0.52 percent to $9.75 today, continuing to trade in a tight range in place the last month. Shares were trading around $12 going into late August and were above $17 at 52-week highs in March.

  • Reply to

    More to come

    by ksn_44 Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 17, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    I see they downgraded but I did not see any details. Pretty gutsy before earnings. Going against Goldman which upgraded on 10/17.

  • ksn_44 by ksn_44 Nov 14, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    All: Now I do not feel so bad. Look at this Chinese company. Never heard of them before, but when I saw yesterday they reported .62 for the Q (NOT THE YEAR!) and I saw the stock is around 6 bucks, I said what the %^&**((.

    Diamond in the rough? Anyone going to put out a feeler?

  • Reply to

    More to come

    by ksn_44 Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 14, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    blue, I think you are dead on when/if they hit the numbers and the corresponding response, although at this point I am skeptical, but again, hopeful on that 14 target.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 14, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    Why EJ and LEJU, who are based in Shanghai, are not responding more affirmatively to this new policy implementation IS WAY BEYOND MY UNDERSTANDING.

  • under the new policy. I think the impact will be broader than is being acknowledged,

    ************************************************************************************************

    SHANGHAI’S housing authority yesterday unveiled a revised criteria for “normal” homes to help buyers qualify for preferential policies and boost sales of low-to mid-class homes.

    A flat within the city’s Inner Ring Road priced below 4.5 million yuan (US$734,000) will be defined as normal housing effective from next Thursday, the Shanghai Housing Support and Building Administration Bureau said on its website. The current cap is 3.3 million yuan.

    Between the Inner and Outer Ring roads, the price cap will be 3.1 million yuan, up from the present cap of 2 million yuan.

    Beyond the Outer Ring Road, it will be 2.3 million yuan, compared with 1.6 million yuan currently, the authority said.

    All flats must not be larger than 140 square meters in gross floor area to be considered normal housing, a criteria that remains unchanged.

    The city’s current criteria for normal housing took effect from March 2012.

    “It is a timely adjustment made by the housing watchdog as it will allow more buyers to benefit from the new mortgage policies announced in late September,” said Lu Qilin, a researcher with Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co.

    “We expect sales of mid- to low-end homes to climb notably after the implementation of the new criteria.”

    From the beginning of this year to Wednesday, only 40 percent of those homes sold in the city which are located beyond the Outer Ring Road could be defined as normal housing under the current criteria, according to Deovolente.

    However, after the new criteria takes effect, 70 percent of them could be defined as normal housing.

    Only buyers of normal houses are eligible for preferential policies announced in late September by the central bank, the local government said earlier.

    Buyers who own a home and have paid off their mortgage are now viewed as first-home buyers

  • Reply to

    More to come

    by ksn_44 Nov 13, 2014 2:29 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 14, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    venetian, let me add, red-headed and left-handed stepchild. The Rodney Dangerfield of Chinese stocks, although surely their flagging stock price in a boom period of the stock market has as much to do with the decline of the Chinese real estate sector. I guess Wednesday morning will provide us with a real "tale of the tape", ie., can they hold onto their forecasts in lieu of the decline of the real estate market. You wonder if and when they upgraded their forecast if they were aware of the tepid sales that were forthcoming for the year, or did they know that and it did not matter anyway.

    Keep in mind, their last public statements were on August 26 and their was no mention of a revision at that time. Of course, with my extreme long position, I am still hopeful. I am also still hopeful over a "hook up announcement" as well to be a major add on to their regular earnings announcement.

QNST
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