At the rate the stock is performing, the rebound could be over before the stock gets going. Whatever happened to buying on the come in the stock market. Regardless, here are some facts. And notice the headline AS PRICES WEAKEN ignores the fact that the "price weakening" is LESSENING.
Chinese Developers Post Strong Dec Sales as Prices Weaken
Contracted sales among 16 of China’s largest publicly-traded property developers rose 103% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month during December, according to figures from China Real Estate Information Corp. Gemdale recorded the highest monthly jump in sales growth, with December results rising 149% over the previous month to 11.2 billion yuan. Vanke led on volume, with sales of 21.9 billion yuan, up 16% month-on-month and 98% year-on-year respectively.
Meanwhile, floor space sold for an average of 7% less per square meter last month than in December 2013. For the October-December period, average prices were down 1% year-on-year and up 5% quarter-on-quarter.
Amid widespread reports of market malaise and weakening demand, company data show developers coming within an average of 93% of their 2014 annual sales targets.
I think they lowered right before the PBOC lowered rates, so I think they will be at least at the high end or they may even beat their ridiculous revised forecast. First of all, they came out with their earlier forecast way back in May, during the 1Q earnings call. That was so stupid. Then they lowered in October. But if they had not raised in May they would have met their normal year end forecast from most of the analysts. Herculean blunder on their part. December had the highest sales volume of the year. Pricing was blah but the fact remains the year ended with a mini bang. Part of the thesis here is that year 2015 will be a bit stronger than 2014, but investors have not bought that yet.
The Trulia and Zillow cash comparison has been this way for years. Z at one point had a valuation something like 20X that of EJ if you were to look at earnings and cash. Complete disconnection on so many levels. Very frustrating to own this stock. It really never gets its due. Part of the ambiguity also stems from the fact that since the last CC you may not hear from the company again until they report year end sometime in mid to late March.
Vanke got outsold by Greenland this year, I think the first time ever.........................HANGHAI-BASED Greenland Holding Group Co beat its rival China Vanke in housing sales last year for the first time.
Greenland’s contracted sales in 2014 rose 50 percent annually to 240.8 billion yuan (US$38.8 billion), including a 4.7-fold surge in overseas sales to 15.3 billion yuan, the firm said in a statement late Sunday.
Vanke’s property sales rose 25.9 percent to 215.1 billion yuan last year, the developer said late Monday.
Vanke, formerly China’s largest developer by revenue, has been cautious toward new projects amid a downturn in the real estate sector across China since the beginning of 2014. The developer had 39 projects totaling 6.76 million square metres last year, a plunge of 62.5 percent from 2013, according to its public announcement.
Surprisingly strong property sales in December signaled recovery in market sentiment as the government eased housing and monetary policies. But any recovery in the real estate market is likely to be slow, according to analysts.
In late October, China reduced mortgage rates and downpayment level for home buyers for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Further on those December sales numbers.............they were up 15% from November. 15 friggin percent!! Is anyone paying attention???!!! I hear you loud and clear, venetian, there is a pall over the sector here. SFUN and EJ are trading in lock step. LEJU is in its own world. Utterly, unequivocably baffling in every sense of the word. I guess you are right the huge block did not portend a spanking. Volume continues to run fairly high. I keep waiting and waiting on a hook up announcement and have peppered IR incessantly about it.
7 Jan8:29 PM
[BEIJING] Authorities in China's capital sold a plot of land at a record 8.63 billion yuan (US$1.39 billion) on Wednesday, underlining resilient demand for property in big cities despite a cooling in the overall market.
Located in the south of Beijing, the plot for mixed residential and educational use was sold at a 22 per cent premium to the starting price, data from the Beijing Land and Resources Bureau showed. The plot is 155,675.9 square metres (1.675 million square feet), the bureau said.
The auction result showed demand for property remained strong in China's big cities, which was in stark contrast with the overall property market.
Property sales in first-tier cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, hit the highest level seen in 2014, up nearly 15 per cent, in December from November, according to data from private housing data researcher CRIC.
The stronger-than-seasonal property sales in December point to a recovery in market sentiment thanks to looser housing and monetary policy, with the upbeat momentum expected to swing into 2015.
Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst Venant Chiang notes Chinese developers in general have become more prudent when it comes to portfolio expansion, with land purchases easing to 27% of contracted sales in 2014 versus 40% in 2013. That would help to lessen financial risk in a sector notorious for having debt-laden balance sheets.
While high inventory levels could continue to pose a threat to property prices, Citi’s Choi notes destocking is progressing well in tier one and tier two cities despite the situation remaining bleak in lower tier cities. The margins of larger developers may also prove to be more resilient than expected. Choi reckons gross profit margins for new sales could be sustained at 2014 levels of around 25%, above the market’s expectation of a squeeze in margins to between 18% and 20%.
With the valuations of many major Chinese real estate developers still sitting below five-year averages, analysts see the balance of risk and reward as favorable for investors. However, would be buyers should take a discerning approach when choosing which stocks to add to the portfolio, given the range of quality among Chinese developers tends to span the good, the bad and the ugly.
Citi’s Choi recommends looking for companies that command market leadership, are state owned, have portfolios focused in mainly tier-one and tier-two cities, and have been transforming their business models to sustain long term growth. Beyond the essential fundamentals, a Hong Kong listing may be another factor to consider. While Shanghai-listed property stocks have rallied 35% in the past month, their Hong Kong-listed peers rose only 9%. As such, Choi sees potential for upward revisions among the latter and expects valuations to catch up to that of Shanghai-listed counterparts.
The festive season certainly appeared to have been a merry one for the Chinese property sector.
Sales volumes across China’s largest, or tier one, cities picked up more than 45% in December compared to a year ago. Following what had been a tumultuous 2014, the better sales numbers may indicate the weakness that has plagued the country’s once red-hot property market may be waning. The tentative signs of a bottoming out in sales has helped lift big name developers such as China Vanke, which saw its China-listed shares rally about 70% since late October.
But there could more auspiciousness to come for Chinese property in 2015. Citi’s Oscar Choi expects the sector to continue its bull run in the first half of the year, arguing there are “multiple catalysts to justify the rally and more proactive buying”.
Spearheading those catalysts is a favorable policy and credit environment. A loosening of monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China at the end of 2014, coupled with a relaxation of housing and mortgage policies, played a pivotal role in the property sector’s bounce back. Citi’s Choi expects to see lower interest rates and cuts to the reserve requirement ratio in the first half of 2015 as Beijing seeks to support China’s slowing economy. “Liquidity should remain abundant to favor buyers and developers’ financing,” notes Choi.
Plus, rates going down and sales going up. Man, ain't everyone seeing the government going to prop up property this year?
Chinese property developers jumped for a second day on China’s monetary easing policies as well as signs of recovery in residential sales volume.
Residential mortgage rates have fallen after the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark lending rates on November 21. According to Sohu News, the average home mortgage rate transacted in the first twenty days in December fell to 0.95 times the new lowered lending rate.
And there is more easing to come. Before the New Year, the People’s Bank of China relaxed its definition of loan-to-deposit ratios thereby encouraging Chinese banks to lend.
Sales volume, the key metric to watch for a property market recovery, rose in the last week of December. According to SouFun, transaction volume in the 37 cities they track improved 8.3% from a week ago, or 23% from a year ago, with 25 cities reporting weekly increases.
Why would flyonthewall mention a supposed routine sell side meeting? Is this what fly reports on regularly? Brean has a 16 PT perhaps they want to hear more from mgmt to maintain the PT? Does Brean have an investment arm? Questions, questions.....
Email has been sent. I have thought of all your points. I take it out on Zhou alot in my correspondence with E House but this guy has 35 years in the business. I figure with all the shenanigans in Chinese RE he is in the middle of it. Must know anybody and everybody at this point. Maybe now they see the need to hook up. I don't know though, I never hear of Chinese companies merging, this never seems to occur. Perhaps their laws say they cannot? Not sure. But it seems so friggin obvious now they all need to get stronger with BABA in the mix.
Volume is off the chart today. We needed this so very badly. I was just talking to someone about buying late Wednesday but I own enough shares so I backed away. I could have brought my average down to about 10 or so if I had.
I see that, but geez, the coincidence of that with year end tax loss selling is just too obvious...to me, at least. Heck, transactions have been rising, there has been a rate cut, the number of cities where prices are dropping is declining, there have been too many other stimulative measures for me to believe the rise in Beijing home loan max is solely responsible for the pop. I dunno, maybe it really is. When I read that other cities may follow suit, this is most definitely encouraging.
When LEJU pops 20% you gotta dump immediately I happened to be away and missed that pop. It usually heads south twice as fast. Know nothing of that Brean Murray meeting. I can ask IR though today.