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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

ksn_44 155 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
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  • Allegedly the largest realtor in mainland China. SFUN recently announced a tie up with them in July. SFUN also announced a tie up with Hopefluent. World Union is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Hopefluent on the Hong Kong. I can find no other publicly listed Chinese realtor stocks.

    So I did a valuation comparison with World Union.

    EJ has 905 revenue whereas World Union has 533M. World Union was about 50% more profitable.

    Get this, the market cap of World Union is 4.3B whereas EJ is 734M.

    PE for World Union is 67, EJ is 19.

    World Union's stock has moved from 10 to 35 in the past 6 months. EJ has tanked 60% in the past year.

    World Union in the past six months has acquired parts of three other privately held realtors in China. EJ is spending on two new businesses.

    And EJ is listed on the NYSE for what reason???? If in China, and EJ had a similar PE, the stock would be in the 20's.

  • Property stocks on both Hong Kong and mainland markets rose in the morning session, after Beijing on Friday urged local governments to support residents to improve their housing conditions and reduce or even stop land supply in cities where there is a surplus of houses.

    The market also expected the government to announce fresh measures soon, including tax cuts and a reduction in mortgage lending rates, to aid the struggling property sector.

  • You wonder who this is, Goldman? And why no one else. Did Brean not give estimates, just a PT?

  • Reply to

    Napadano's Comment

    by wcoastguy2008 Mar 25, 2015 12:42 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 25, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    We need Gerald to call another investor's conference so he and Aaron Schock can get together and take some selfies.

  • Reply to

    Met with aggressive sellers

    by asaatjian Mar 24, 2015 11:45 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 25, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    You know, I went over the CC transcript again, and outside of the expenditures on the new business processes they are attempting to implement, their operating margins still were not that bad. So I think if you look at the businesses year to year on an apple to apples basis the stock is being dealt with a bit unjustly. Of course, we don't know what revenues this social community business is going to generate at this point, so until we get some sort of indicator on this, we may be a bit constrained stock price-wise. Other than these expenditures, LEJU is clicking on all fronts in a depressed sector and more credit needs to be given here.

    I sure wish I could figure out how they are going to generate revenue from this new social community process. I mean they have millions of users already, and they are going from 10 to 50 cities in 2015, now just how does all this translate????

  • Reply to

    Met with aggressive sellers

    by asaatjian Mar 24, 2015 11:45 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 25, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    You are wrong about the pricing. Pricing, if anything, has the largest influence on their business model. Obviously if prices are higher, their commissions earned are higher. The problem now, and the company mentioned it but did not spend alot of time on it, but the problem is margins. The space has become so competitive EJ LEJU have to SPEND SPEND SPEND to maintain market share. Look at their expenditures on marketing costs. Then look at their sales growth (fantastic) and lowered profit reported.

    Developers do not have these issues. They have their own. But you can see by how the 000006.SS index is doing that Developers in China have all basically doubled this year. EJ LEJU are not in a good place right now. Look at their earnings estimates for Q1, and then look at the powerful sales growth projections. See the disconnect?

    Not sure how they get out of this, probably have to #$%$ up multiple realtors and just grow that way rather than SPEND SPEND SPEND. Eventually you keep spending like this the point is you take away business but getting business back at this point only gets them back to the margins they had before this competition.

    One analyst has them making .10 for the full year. Another has .91. Someone thinks they are doomed, someone thinks they can get their way out of this. For this uncertainty, the stocks are being pummeled.

  • Reply to

    My thoughts on price drop.

    by wikidsnoboarder2000 Mar 24, 2015 1:24 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 24, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    I concur. Besides, Gerald will be releasing some vital news at the conference. We should be expecting some scintillating trial results in about 10 years on LymPro. Remember you heard it here first. Your grandchildren may be able to dump your shares for maybe about 6 or 7 cents.

  • Shanghai may raise cap for housing fund loans - newspaper
    SHANGHAI, March 24 Mon Mar 23, 2015 8:49pm EDT

    (Reuters) - Shanghai is considering raising the ceiling for housing loans under its provident fund by as much as 75 percent, the Shanghai Securities News reported on Tuesday.

    Currently, an individual in Shanghai can borrow as much as 400,000 yuan $64,376) from the provident fund to buy a home, while a family can borrow up to 800,000 yuan.

    The local government is considering raising the lending cap to 700,000 yuan and 1.2 million yuan, respectively, the newspaper said, citing unidentified officials at the Shanghai Provident Fund Management Center.

    On March 20, Chen Zhenggao, head of China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, called on local governments to make good use of housing provident funds to help low- and mid-income residents improvement their housing conditions and promote healthy development of the real estate market.

  • Reply to

    NOT AGAIN?

    by mwe_expressions Mar 23, 2015 9:27 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 23, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    He does talk a good game. Probably eating great steaks on the road on our dimes also.

  • Reply to

    Presentation

    by nj46nick Mar 23, 2015 8:08 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 23, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    Like Aaron Schock, perhaps we will see photos of Gerald on Instagram with his shirt off. I think what he will do is say it's going "well". So I am not sure if he is referring to his workout program or the lym pro.

  • To go over nothing again. Just for like the last X number of years. Oh, Gerald can really spin a narrative of next to nothing. Don't worry, big news coming in the fall of say, pick your year, 2019, 2020, etc.

    What a huckster.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 22, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    As I look now at LEJU some of their estimates are quite sizeable. You wonder, don't they realize EJ gets at least 2/3 of their numbers from LEJU????!!!!!

  • Reply to

    Very happy to see some lower earnings estimates

    by jalopysrus Mar 21, 2015 12:15 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 22, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    Even more interesting is if you assume the same analysts that cover LEJU would cover EJ. They have some good numbers for LEJU (considering the stock price demolition), particularly for the end of the year and 2016.

    Now if this one analyst shows EJ losing money, and LEJU making a little profit, then that figures that the EJ stand alone business is going to lose a healthy chunk of change. This of course is hogwash. But I do agree with you, let them bring down estimates, then we can beat them.

    Take note also of the LEJU increase in revenue projections. These numbers are OUTSTANDING.

  • Reply to

    Incredulous

    by ksn_44 Mar 18, 2015 11:35 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 20, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    s tock twit was right on this

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 20, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    You may change your views as estimates are rolling in. I see one at .35 for all of 2015. This is devastating news. Wow. Margin compression. Too many costs to generate revenue. Unless the two new businesses come through we have dead money for the entire year. This is depressing.

  • RSI at 19 MFI at 7. Again, these are heading into BK filing numbers.

    On another note, a little blurb out today on transactions in March........................

    In China, positive news was reported from housing market, with housing transactions up in several cities in March. Deals in first-tier cities grew 35.9% last week. The improving sales and favorable policies turned market players to optimistic about housing market.

  • Reply to

    If history can tell us anything,

    by jefferyon8 Mar 19, 2015 4:16 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 20, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Yes, it is proven that the dividend is unimportant. i have been sending an untold number of missives to mgmt just to vent discussing this very subject. Amongst other issues. A buyback would have been far better, Why quibble over the shekels a dividend gives us when we have lost thousands and thousands?

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 20, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Everyone here understands your pain, trust me on that.

  • What is LEJU going to double the price of EJ? Indiscriminate, passionate selling. And why is this company not considering privitization? Their Chinese counterparts are setting historical high's while Zillow MADE ITS FIRST PROFIT LAST Q AND IS VALUED AT 100.

    They need to go private badly and de list from here. It is killing everybody.

  • Cut from 16. Hey, it's only more than a double from here. I would take a day where we are up a nickel. This is ridiculous.

    Equities research analysts at Brean Capital decreased their price target on shares of E-House (China) Holdings Limited from $16.00 to $13.00 in a research note issued to investors on Thursday. The firm currently has a “buy” rating on the stock. Brean Capital’s target price would suggest a potential upside of 148.57% from the stock’s previous close.

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