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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

ksn_44 124 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 minutes 23 seconds ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
  • Reply to

    Irony of ironies are their forecast revision

    by ksn_44 1 hour 56 minutes ago
    ksn_44 ksn_44 3 minutes 23 seconds ago Flag

    Yeah, this is a surprise, but is it really? LEJU performing OK but EJ another story. That said, I bought another 1000 shares at 9.60 so I am down already.

  • Sigh, they should never have messed with the forecast in May, and now it appears their downgrade last week will be exceeded. Numbers for October and November are outstanding, back to the good old days, and no reason to believe December will not be the same what with the rate cut.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    THE implementation of revised criteria for normal housing fueled home transactions in Shanghai last week with a particularly notable surge in suburban properties, latest market data suggested.

    Sales of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, jumped 19.2 percent week over week to 257,700 square meters, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.

    "The revised criteria, which went effective Thursday, left direct impact on transactions with those located beyond the city's Outer Ring Road seeing the biggest surge," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "Coupled with central bank's latest cut in interest rate, housing transactions will continue to increase."

    Daily transaction of new homes, located beyond the Outer Ring Road, averaged 34,500 square meters between Thursday and Sunday, a nearly 66 percent surge from the average daily volume registered between November 1 and 19, according to Deovolente data. In comparison, sales of new houses located within the Inner Ring Road jumped 36.8 percent while those located between the Inner and Outer ring roads rose 11.7 percent, respectively.

    cont'd....

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 2 hours 3 minutes ago Flag

    Excellent CALL buy, venetian, I have so much long at this point I dare not buy another penny's worth although when I saw it get into the 7's someone with some larger nads is up quite handsomely. I know what I would do though with those options I myself will probably sell a portion and keep selling along the way if it keeps rising. Options can turn on you so quickly as you know but it appears you will make a nice chunk of change. Good for you.

  • Confirmation of what Zhang notes..............................These concurrent rate cuts, the first time this has been done since July 2012, are good for mortgage borrowers, UBS chief China economist Wang Tao said in a note.

    "The biggest near term beneficiary group will be mortgage borrowers, as mortgage rates will be reduced alongside the benchmark lending rate, helping to support demand," she said.

    Chief analyst at Centaline Property, Zhang Dawei, said the housing market, especially in first-tier cities, stood to benefit the most from the rate cuts.

    The lending rate cut translates into remarkable discounts for first-time home buyers and will have a strong psychological impact on them, he said.

    Zhang explained that as a result of the post-cut benchmark mortgage rate, which stands at 6.15 percent, people with a 20-year mortgage loan of 1 million yuan (162,866 U.S. dollars) will save about 234 yuan each month.

    "The rate cut and previous mortgage rule easing are two boons for the housing market, both psychologically and in reality," he said.

    The Chinese property market suffered a notable downturn in 2014, with weak market sentiment and confidence, sluggish sales, falling prices, and elevated and rising inventory, all weighing on the industry's outlook and consumers' confidence.

  • open. Shanghai Index up 2%.

  • China is prepared to cut interest rates again, concerned that falling prices could trigger a surge in debt defaults, business failures and job losses, reports Reuters quoting sources involved in policy-making.
    "Top leaders have changed their views," said a senior economist at a government think-tank. "Further interest rate cuts should be in the pipeline as we have entered into a rate-cut cycle and reserve requirement ratio cuts are also likely."
    In as surprise move on Friday, the People's Bank of China lowered one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points to 5.6%.

  • BEIJING--China's central bank succumbed to political and market pressure and cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, in a sign that the country's leadership is leaning toward more sweeping measures to bolster flagging economic growth...................The central bank, under longtime Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan, had resisted calls from both within the government and those in the financial markets and corporate sector to cut interest rates. Bank officials feared that broadly easing credit would worsen China's debt problems and put the economy at greater risk, according to People's Bank officials.

    Instead, it had tried to channel credit to sectors deemed important for China's growth, including small and rural businesses as well as government-financed low-income housing projects.

    As recently as last month, the PBOC's chief economist, Ma Jun, said China wouldn't need to embark on broad-based stimulus plans even as growth slows, saying big measures would only cause more credit to flow into industries that already suffer from excess capacity, such as steel and real estate. In a response to reporters on Friday, Mr. Ma said the risk of deflation, or falling prices, is putting "upward pressure" on real interest rates in China's economy, which contributed to the decision to cut benchmark rates now.

    By lowering lending rates, the PBOC is acceding to demands from the Beijing leadership to reduce financing costs for businesses, according to Chinese officials and advisers to the bank.

    In a statement posted on its website, the PBOC said credit has become more expensive and harder to come by for some businesses since July, despite a number of measures taken by the State Council. The rate cut, it said, would help return interest rates to "a reasonable level" and solve the corporate sector's financing difficulties.
    cont'd............

  • Reply to

    blue, here is more piling on

    by ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 6:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    I believe this is the second highest volume day of the year, I think the highest was on the day LEJU started trading. So in reality, this is the highest.

  • Reply to

    blue, here is more piling on

    by ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 6:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    blue, when investing in Chinese stocks, the PBOC is really who rules. But I love that smirk, I've got one too.

  • Reply to

    blue, here is more piling on

    by ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 6:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    bab, I believe October was the first month in a long while where housing inventory actually dropped. No question, there is an overbuilt situation that will keep prices muted. But in reality, this is EXACTLY what the Chinese govt wants, muted price increases (and decreases for that matter). It is almost as if they achieved what they wanted, now they are opening up the spigot again. This is a government controlled, not market driven, economy. Big difference from ours.

  • Wharton real estate professor Joseph Gyourko collaborated with colleagues at the National University of Singapore (NUS) and Tsinghua University in China on a project to create indices of Chinese housing land prices. (He discussed the project in a previous Knowledge@Wharton article, Why High Land Prices in China Are Not a Bubble.) Today, the indices demonstrate a decline, with some indicators showing the market has gone back to where it was five years ago, says Gyourko in this interview with Knowledge@Wharton.

    Knowledge@Wharton: What do you expect going forward, say in the next few quarters?

    Gyourko: I wish I knew. That’s why we’re doing the index, so I’ll know. I suspect we’re going to see variation at the city level — that’s No. 1. I think we’ll find that some cities are doing just fine, and other markets are not. We have 35 [cities] in our index, so we should be able to see a lot of variation across markets and across the country. We don’t just track Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou on the coast.

    I think the second thing to look for is change in policy. If you look at our index, it is clear in our data that Chinese government policy can move the housing market. There was a similar decline in transactions volume in 2008, during the financial crisis, and it was rapidly turned around by the Chinese government stimulus policy. We saw a very large decline in transactions volume recently. The question is: Are we going to see a change in policy? I don’t know. But it has happened in the past. I kind of doubt it, but I don’t know. I think we need to look at what the Chinese government is going to do going forward.

    “If you look at our index, it is clear in our data that Chinese government policy can move the housing market.”

  • Reply to

    blue, here is more piling on

    by ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 6:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 21, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    Also opening up bank spigots.

    ******************************************************************************************

    the PBoC also relaxed its control of the amount that banks can offer for deposits. They can now offer 1.2 times the benchmark rate, rather than 1.1 times. These range from 0.35% to 4% depending on maturity. The PBoC enforces a strict cap of 75% on loan-to-deposit ratios in the banking system.

    Taken together, the measures look designed to support liquidity into a banking system that is facing challenges on a number of fronts. The sector is seeing a sharp rise in bad loans, especially to real estate developers and construction companies, which is hitting revenue. In addition, banks are also looking to raise capital themselves and amass cash to service clients’ demands for other stock offerings that are due next week in China.

    Earlier Friday, the PBoC had felt the need to issue a statement via its account on the Chinese Twitter-equivalent Weibo reassuring market participants that liquidity was “ample”. Benchmark one-week interbank rates had risen by an alarming 0.2o percentage point to 3.48% earlier, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  • this will lead to a cut in mortgage rates so housing will get some MAJOR jet fuel from this..............n response to both a slowing domestic and global economy, China has cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years.The People's Bank of China lowered one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 bps to 5.6% and reduced the one-year deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.75%.

  • Reply to

    The more spin

    by ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 10:36 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    You do realize the revenue guidance was only lowered between 4 and 6.5%, right? And those are both WORSE CASE scenarios. LEJU's revised guidance is a bit more. Granted, they should never have opened their big mouths about raising guidance in May in the first place. Granted again, earnings were a disappointment.

    But judging by the way they blew their guidance, it appears they could be just as wrong on the upside if housing starts cooking in November and December. Kind of scary though, seems as if the company is less beholden to the market and more locked in to what the government does with respect to controlling the RE market.

  • ksn_44 by ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I provide, the more LEJU goes down. No one seems to be listening.

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by bill1217 Nov 19, 2014 6:28 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    LEJU's miss was a trifle, as was there YE rev forecast. If the price was fair going into today, the punishment does not fit the crime here at all. Remember too, most pundits feel we are at or have passed the bottom due to govt stimulation in recent months.

  • Reply to

    5 LEJU shares for every 100 EJ you own

    by speedtrader555 Nov 19, 2014 8:49 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Nice little bonus I'd say.

    I still say if they had not raised guidance in May these numbers would not look so bad. They basically beat 2013 on all fronts. And again, 2013 was an epic year. The revision makes it look as if the business is performing poorly, which it is not. Someone raised everyone's expectations and we are being punished for that. Perhaps someone can look through the fog of war and see how well the business is really doing. Not as good as they thought it would do so obviously management did not foresee this poor of a year in general in Chinese RE. As to 2015, Zhou was positively ebullient. No specifics of course, but we will not know that if the market rebounds this business will follow and be a bit above the average.

    I don't think they pushed hard enough in emphasizing how well they did in relation to last year. Course in some respects they couldn't since they had an egg on their face from their miscalculation in May.

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by bill1217 Nov 19, 2014 6:28 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    OK, let's spin this a bit. Number 1, they beat last year's online services and Ecom services soundly. In fact, they trounced them. An last year was an epic year in Chinese RE. The primary RE biz was down 9%, in line with the industry. Even though transactions were actually UP from last year, albeit 2%.

    The guidance is still 20% AHEAD of last year. The major screw up was the guidance issued way back in May. I bet they never look that far out again. I remember when they gave that guidance the stock hardly reacted. No one believed they could look that far out, and they were right. The other negative is the spending on new programs. But they are still ahead of last year's numbers significantly. The stock has done nothing this year. It would seem investors knew this negative news was coming. Just a quick take. Going to listen to the CC now. By the way, they should fire whomever put out that raised guidance six months ago in an ambiguous market at best .

  • Reply to

    earnings

    by bill1217 Nov 19, 2014 6:28 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 19, 2014 7:24 AM Flag

    Worse than expected for sure. TH sure nailed it. So Goldman does not know everything. 8.52 x 9.06 at the moment.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Nov 18, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Heck, buy it now for 5 cents on the dollar. Who knows how much money they saved, probably why the stock is trading higher. For once I can say, good move on mgmt's part.

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