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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

ksn_44 160 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
  • Reply to

    EJ Earnings Call Q&A Session

    by abacusbeater 9 hours ago

    One note from the CC on what could happen in an upswing in the RE market, as opposed to what occurred the past six months in a depressed real estate market:

    *************************************************************************************************************

    If I can just add a little bit Jinsong, this is Li-Lan. Obviously, I’d say, very depressed market is bad for our margin -- bad for our traditional agency business and doesn’t help the online business either.

    So to that extent, if the market sentiments of the overall transaction volume activity recover in the second half of the year, basically in the next couple of months, it should help.

    But market conditions are not the only thing that affects our margin. How much we spend on new products and platforms. How much we spend on marketing as we do during the Leju cost, those are also impact our margins.

    *******************************************************************************************************

    TRANSLATED: We made good or OK money now in a down market, but if this market improves our margins will be cookin!

  • Someone tell me how this makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Here we go again!

    by abacusbeater 11 hours ago

    It is almost as if there is no connection. Hard one to figure. Maybe shows you how intelligent the investment community really is.

  • Multiple is exponentially well beyond EJ or LEJU

  • Reply to

    Loaded on both dips

    by ksn_44 13 hours ago

    Going to listen to the LEJU CC sometime today and will give my thoughts. I noticed Goldman did not ask any questions on the EJ CC but Jin Song (sp) at Credit Suisse asked about 4 of them. Note: he is very influential so what he says may be a driver. Note also: what he says is not always made public.

  • Reply to

    Loaded on both dips

    by ksn_44 13 hours ago

    bill, I like you cannot figure out trading on either one either. The best I can make of it is that it is totally buying on the come. I listened to EJ's call, but not LEJU's yet. In my one experience in listening to LEJU's last CC I found their management very in tuned and the CC was very enlightening. They seemed to be less guarded and more forthcoming than the EJ execs. My opinion only.

    But the two MAJOR takeaways are in my opinion

    If they are doing this well in a down market, how much better will they do, potentially exponentially, in a rising market.

    And second, what is the impact of this Weixin/Weibo combo on revenue. After all, they are the main cogs in social media in China, and we are into them with both hands.

  • May quickly unload half as they both tend to pop and fade, then retrench

  • 1.5B market cap.

    Another big dividend coming???

  • should count for something

  • Reply to

    LEJU down 9% pre and EJ up 3% pre

    by ksn_44 14 hours ago

    LEJU bounced up a bit, now down 4% with a half hour to the open. Listening to CC, the main point is that both companies have delivered in a very depressed Chinese housing market. So the GREAT UNKNOWN is how will they do when housing gets going again?? You have to presume they will do MUCH BETTER based on the tone and general answers to varied questions.

  • From 4.80 tp 9.20 since Monday morning. wowowowow

    Chinese finance company

  • So maybe a wash?

    *****************************************************************************

    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has had its fair share of economic consequences. A ban imposed on lavish military banquets, for example, hurt the nation’s hospitality sector. Now, the Chinese premier appears to have his eyes set on investigating the real estate assets of Chinese government officials, which has been having an effect already in the real estate market.
    +
    According to the Wall Street Journal, which interviewed roughly a dozen property agents in China, government officials are offloading their luxury apartments en masse, often at the first bid they receive. (Presumably it was lost on none of them that the tabloid-worthy details about Wu Zhizhong, a disgraced former senior civil servant from Inner Mongolia, included a report that he owned 34 properties in China and overseas and could fill a handbag with all of his door keys.)

  • Sina Corp. reported second quarter results that were better than consensus expectations driven by Sina's Weibo growth, but third quarter guidance was weaker than expected.

    Even though Weibo is making solid progress on the monetization front, the portal business is not growing, which is part of the reason behind its third quarter soft outlook.

    The internet sector has experienced major changes over the last few years in China, with rapid changes not only in technology but also in user behaviors. Sina’s portal business seemed to be left behind amid the evolving internet sphere.

    However, the company recognizes that it needs to inject growth back into portal, and Sina is investing in different verticals to reinvigorate this part of the business.

    So far, Sina has stated that it is investing in internet finance, video and sports. One promising venture, we believe, could come from Sina’s investment in a joint venture with Chinese real estate portal E-House to create a real estate financial platform or a mortgage-based P2P (Peer-to-Peer) platform.

    Going into the second half, Sina will accelerate the pace of its investment in the internet and finance vertical. Although we are unlikely to see meaningful financial results any time soon, the company’s investments could ultimately get portal back on a growth trajectory.

    Sina's Weibo has made meaningful progress on the monetization front in terms of experimenting with new monetization methods, which include my-media to monetize opinion leaders; TV and Weibo interaction; opening promoted tweets to key accounts. We believe these initiatives can eventually yield positive results.

    Going forward, we believe that as Sina is aggressively investing in verticals and in mobile in the second half, we could see positive results from the rejuvenation of portal and resumption of revenue growth.

    While we are positive towards Sina’s portal strategy, it could take some time before meaningful results occur. As such, we maintain our Hold rat

  • Average home prices slipped 0.9 percent in July on a monthly basis, data on Monday showed, as declines spread to the largest number of cities since January 2011, when authorities started releasing the property price data.

    "We expect home prices to continue to drop in coming months due to increasingly pessimistic market sentiment," said Yan

    Yuejin, a property analyst at real estate services firm E-House China (EJ.N) in Shanghai.

    "The possibility of further moves by the central bank to loosen monetary policy cannot be ruled out. That would put a floor beneath prices," Yan said............................"Reports of a rising number of cities relaxing home purchase restrictions are encouraging, though with a large inventory overhang, they provide no hope of a quick rebound in prices," Prakash Sakpal, an economist at ING said in note to clients.

    A growing number of local governments have eased restrictions on property purchases in recent weeks, while state-controlled banks have also revved up lending to the sector, though some analysts believe banks are increasingly reluctant to lend to some developers as the downturn persists.

    At least 30 regional governments, which earn a large part of their revenues from selling state land, have openly or quietly relaxed home purchase restrictions this year, according to data from private consultancies.

    Even if the slowdown lasts for more than a year a market collapse is seen as unlikely if local governments continue to relax controls and banks keep credit ample, according to a Reuters analysts poll last month.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 13, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Oh, that is a negative, no question. But this is a variable, lending could explode next month.

    But some days it seems no matter the news, SFUN, LEJU and EJ are going to go up, some down. Almost as if a batch of investors wake up and say, let's sell them today, or, let's buy them today. Seems indifferent to news in general. Never know what the heck they will do from day to day.

  • Reply to

    SFUN & LEJU

    by michaellipka Aug 12, 2014 4:59 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 13, 2014 12:00 AM Flag

    michael, did not see that. But your 20% OTO growth, I don't think we even START seeing growth "that low" for 2 or at least 3 years or even more. This year we will be triple digit for the year, at least for LEJU's OTO E Commerce biz.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 12, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    Bill, i think you are dead on, as much as I feel their OTO biz is the place to be, back in March, in no way shape or form did I see this heavy of a decline in Chinese real estate prices and transaction volume. I didn't see it, but the market did.

    Now the market is looking out a few more months and seeing a rebound. At least that is what this recent share price pop tells me. Throw in the excitement of what the OTO biz can provide, and we will have a very interesting CC next week.

  • Note the plunge in new home sales last week in Shanghai, yet RE stocks are soaring. There is either buying on the come, or the realization is that these OTO companies are going to make money regardless of transaction volume.

    **********************************************************************************************

    NEW home sales plunged to the lowest in nine weeks as cautious sentiment continued to hang over among home seekers despite adequate supply, latest market data showed.

    The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, dropped 34.8 percent to 119,800 square meters during the seven-day period ended Sunday, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.

    "Though August is usually a slack season for property sales because of the hot weather, the weekly volume of below 120,000 square meters still seemed a bit rare," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "While overall transaction remained subdued, the comparatively better performance in the luxury segment helped drive up average price."

    Average cost of a new home climbed 4.4 percent week-on-week to 27,685 yuan (US$4,465) per square meter, Deovolente data showed.

    Notably among all, Tomson Riviera in the heart of Lujiazui, Pudong New Area, the city's most costly apartment project, sold one unit last week at an average price of 147,000 yuan per square meter, fetching totally 64 million yuan. It was the second apartment sold at the development so far this year, according to Deovolente.

    On the supply side, new houses totaling 180,000 square meters, majority of which located in outlying areas of the city, were released to the local market last week, a rise of 3.8 percent from the previous week.

    In the first ten days of August, new home transaction only stood at a low of 181,800 square meters. That compared to some 700,000 square meters of sales registered in July.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 11, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    OK, Norman, then where are they going to post their listings, the Yellow Pages of your phone book? Get on board, this is THEE place to post, Z will dominate the world of real estate in 10 years and RE commissions will be less than 3%. Ask any real estate agent if during the the crash years ago if they would have taken 3% versus ZERO SALES?! Any major dip in Z should be bought with BOTH HANDS.

XIN
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