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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

ksn_44 152 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 25, 2015 2:08 PM Member since: Jun 28, 1998
  • Reply to

    Steel Prices on the Rise after Holiday

    by bbgun64 Mar 10, 2015 11:57 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 11, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Bet they never Reverse Split again.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 11, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    You cannot underestimate their ability to hunt down oil and gas these days with the advanced technologies in place.

  • Reply to


    by billythart Mar 11, 2015 7:10 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 11, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    You don't think they will continue to improve production processes and discover more natty/oil with improved hunting methodologies? Geez, I think oil and natty pricing is doomed for a longgggg long while. I think a short position (throw a dart) will be highly profitable in the months and years to come.

  • Reply to


    by reitmaster_98 Mar 5, 2015 11:40 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 11, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    MFI's this low are uncharted territory for me to witness. I almost never have seen them, with rare exceptions. Again, with most of those cases, the company has either had an extremely negative earnings release, are in a position where the very business model itself has foundered or simply put they perhaps are heading out of business or into bankruptcy. I would normally say buy with everything you got but obviously since there is no bounce whatsoever the implications are quite dire here.

    When an MFI reading is 0, this boggles me. Why the stock would not at least bounce a little bit puts me at a loss and questions everything I have known or experienced with technical readings.

  • Housing sales nationwide recorded a surge in the first week of March compared with the previous week, with transactions up 53.6 percent to 37,690 apartments, according to data from Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

    The uptick could strengthen a property market recovery that began in the fourth quarter.

    The China Index Academy said that among the 40 cities it mainly tracked, property sales by floor areas have been rising at 51.6 percent month-on-month.

    "Some cities are expected to see booming property sales by the second half of March. Despite the transactions are lower than the pre-spring festival period. The market is likely to be stimulated after the latest interest rate cut," said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline. "Home buyers are more confident with the confirmed favorable property policies, especially in the cities with strong market fundamentals."

  • of not being able to deliver. What a waste of money. And you could have your money in Apple? And you decided on this? Wow, you really have to do a gut check on your gambling habits.

  • Reply to


    by reitmaster_98 Mar 5, 2015 11:40 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 10, 2015 11:42 PM Flag

    Speaking of technicals again, the MFI for LEJU dropped to zero. That's right....ZERO. Not sure what this means other than it would be pretty hard, per the MFI, for a stock to be more oversold on that pure technical reading. EJ is down to an 11. This are unbelievable measures. By all indications we are close to going out of business. Again, these are pure technical readings, but do they ever tell a story.

  • Steel mills in eastern China have cut ferrous scrap buying prices for the second time after the Lunar New Year holidays as steel prices continued to fall due to scant buying interest.
    Jiangsu Shagang Group, the largest scrap user in China, Sunday lowered its scrap buying price by Yuan 20/metric ton ($3/mt) after a cut of Yuan 30/mt last Saturday, a company source said.
    It was the second reduction since the holiday. After the adjustment, Shagang will buy heavy melting scrap 6 mm and above thick at Yuan 1,670/mt including VAT.
    Dongfang Special Steel, in the same province, followed Sunday, cutting its scrap purchase price by Yuan 30/mt, making its buying price of heavy melting scrap 6mm thick and above Yuan 1,600/mt including VAT, delivered to Changzhou.
    Maanshan Iron & Steel (Magang), the largest steel producer in Anhui province, Sunday reduced its buying price of plate cut-offs at least 6 mm thick by Yuan 20/mt to Yuan 1,740/mt including VAT, delivered to Maanshan.
    “The cost of producing steel with scrap remains more than Yuan 100/mt higher than that with hot metal, and steel prices have continued to fall after the holidays, which are the main reasons we cut our scrap buying price,” a source from Shagang told Platts.
    In Beijing’s rebar retail market on Monday, the spot price for 18-25 mm diameter HRB400 rebar was assessed down by Yuan 20/mt at Yuan 2,190-2,200/mt on actual weight basis and including 17% VAT.
    It marked a drop of Yuan 90/mt compared to the price of Yuan 2,280-2,290/mt on February 17 just before the Lunar New Year holidays.

  • Reply to


    by reitmaster_98 Mar 5, 2015 11:40 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 9, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    No. I put alot of time into each post, and both were right at the max limit of letters allowed. And I had to play around with that. Who knows about yahoo.

    That said, I noticed that on a Technical level LEJU posted a 5 handle on the Money Flow Indicator. The only time I have seen a 5 is with a company about to go out of business. I may have seen it a couple other times. My point is the stock is GROSSLY OVERSOLD. Two other key technical readings, the RSI and Bollinger Band, both exhibit oversold readings as well. And you really need all three indicators to indicate oversold at the same time. Well here you have it. Plainly speaking, the techinicals say you have to buy the stock. Now that is the technicals, not Goldman or JP Morgan.

    Caveat. Buyer beware. It certainly does not mean that there is not something untoward going on or that the stock cannot go lower on its own. I am only giving you some technical charting info I find to be extraordinary. Let's see how this plays out.

  • Steel production in China will expand through to 2030, according to Rio Tinto Group, which forecast the increase after MorganStanley predicted that output in the largest supplier will peak this year and then contract.
    China’s crude-steel output will increase from 823 million metric tons last year to about 1 billion tons by 2030, Alan Smith, Rio’s Asia president for iron ore, told a conference in Beijing on Wednesday, according to a copy of his remarks. On Monday, Morgan Stanley said in a report that China’s production will drop from 806 million tons this year to 801 million tons in 2016 and 795 million tons in 2017 as the economy matures.

    Rio, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. invested billions to expand low-cost iron ore supply in Australia, expecting that they could force higher-cost mines to close while Chinese demand continued to expand. The jump in production spurred a glut just as China’s economy slowed, triggering a bear market. Rio’s Smith told the audience the global market was in transition and that there could be significant volatility as high-cost supply was displaced.

    “The demand fundamentals for iron ore remain weak as structural oversupply persists,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a report on Thursday. The purchasing managers’ index for China’s steel sector fell to 43 in January, the lowest level in 11 months, the bank said.

    Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Qingdao, China, lost 1 percent to $62.58 a dry ton on Wednesday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. It fell to $62.21 on Friday, the lowest price on record going back to May 2009. The raw material used to make steel retreated 47 percent last year.

    Rio shares, which fell 15 percent last year, traded 0.7 percent lower at A$60.33 at 3:22 p.m. in Sydney.

    “I reconfirm our view on an attractive long-term demand for iron ore, driven primarily by China,” Smith said. “Our assessment remains that China will reach around 1 billion tons of crude-steel production

  • Reply to


    by reitmaster_98 Mar 5, 2015 11:40 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 7, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    I cannot believe Yahoo deleted them. I did not paste any articles, it was all my own thoughts.

    Anyway, one thing I did not spell out was that if we get a Goldman downgrade, we are screwed. The stock (the investment community, ie) only follows the Goldman opinion. No other analyst matters. And Goldman is the stingiest with the TP. With an average reporting performance, I fear they could give us a 7 handle.

    Other than this, most of the other 8 paragraphs I submitted were quite positive....considering the state we are in. I spelled out what I thought were the highlights going forth.

  • Reply to


    by reitmaster_98 Mar 5, 2015 11:40 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 7, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    I just gave two very lengthy replies, guys. I do not see either of them. I could not hope to repeat either one. Sorry.

  • Reply to


    by reitmaster_98 Mar 5, 2015 11:40 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 7, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    There is so much more to print that I just don't have time for. But here are some points I would make about the upcoming earnings.

    First. EJ LEJU gave guidance for Q4 in mid to late November. They gave a fairly wide revenue range. Note. December was a spectacular month, better than expected. I would think since EJ LEJU blew their '14 YE forecast with their forecast back in March, my thought is even that their Nov '14 forecast for Q4 would be conservative. They would not want to screw up again. Therefore, I think we are in at least for a number at the high range or even for a beat of the high range.

    Second, as to Q2. Overall revenue has started out miserably in January and Feb was even worse due to the previously mentioned Lunar Holiday. Sales are anticipated to ramp in March by a whole host of analysts, not to mention the fruits of the rate cuts. EJ LEJU should have a fairly good outlook for the month of March since they are not reporting till the 18th. They should also have some confidence in provided an extended outlook due to govt support. There are rumors even not only of further rate cuts, but hints at the lowering of down payments and lowering of mortgage rates.

    Third. EJ LEJU are leaders in OTO. They were the first. This cannot be taken lightly. In a pretty depressing year, it has been overlooked that EJ LEJU has had 15% revenue growth through 3 quarters, and if they had not predicted even higher growth than this back in March I do not believe the stock would have been pummeled as much as it has. Should Q4 come in strong, we could have 20% revenue growth, in an absolutely awful RE environment. This fact has been entirely ignored by the investment community.

    Unless there is something I don't know about? In any case, the RE environment is on the mend in 2015. EJ LEJU perhaps, however, is perceived as standing pat, the perception may be they need a tie up like all the others.

    Stay tuned. Let me know your thoughts if any reit and blue and anyone else....

  • I guess thenkfully they are into wood these days, as thin as the margin is on them at least it is an alternative


    Eastern China ferrous scrap price reaches 10-year low on weak demand
    Singapore (Platts)--6Mar2015/615 am EST/1115 GMT

    Ferrous scrap prices fell in eastern China this week as the domestic steel market remained weak, with buyers staying out of the market even after the Lunar New Year holidays.

    Spot prices hit the lowest level since Platts started the assessment in March 2005.

    Platts assessed heavy melting scrap Friday March 6 6mm and above thick at Yuan 1,690/metric ton ($270/mt) including VAT, delivered to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu province, down Yuan 30/mt week on week.

    Jiangsu Shagang Group, the largest scrap consumer of China, Sunday lowered its scrap buying price by Yuan 30/mt.

  • Reply to


    by cur33300 Mar 6, 2015 12:15 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 6, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Since June? You are practically a day trader. I have been here for years, what a piece of dogmeat. Course individual biotechs are like that. Buy the index IBB and you double your money every two years.

    I regret the day I heard this name.

  • Reply to

    Shoulder season coming up fast

    by mileyoil Mar 6, 2015 11:11 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 6, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    Major heat in the midwest next week. High 50's. Gas gets shut off. Natty will break below 2 bucks. What a gift. LOAD UP ON DGAZ today.

  • Reply to

    I think it recovers to 24 by eod

    by alvancare1 Mar 6, 2015 9:51 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Mar 6, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Over reaction? You have to be dreaming. The economy is cookin and gold knows it. Rates will MOST DEFINITIVELY be raised in June. And they will raise again, hard, later in the year. You are looking to bottom here in the low teens, or perhaps as bad as single digits. Get out now and get on the other side before it makes you a long term holder.

  • What will it be with the big warm up coming next week. I mean this past week was brutally cold nation wide.

  • Production MUST stop. If not it will be sitting in tankers rolling around in the ocean. No reason oil is not 20 bucks. Saudi's are screwed. You gotta love it.

  • Huh? What is wrong with this picture. ie., oil prices rising.....Saudi Arabia said it increased its selling prices for its Arab Light crude oil for consumers in the U.S., Europe and Asia in April. “Raising the prices does show some faith in stronger demand which could be a bullish view, but we strongly believe that this number from EIA today has not been priced in yet,” said John Macaluso, research analyst at Tyche Capital Advisors. “We see this rally as an opportunity to establish positions selling into the strength.”So “for now, the market is going to ignore the storage situation,” said Richard Hastings, macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration early Wednesday reported that crude inventories rose by 10.3 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 27. Analysts polled by Platts had forecast a crude-stock climb of 3.7 million barrels, while the API reported a 2.9 million-barrel rise.

    The EIA’s “substantial build” is the largest since 2001, according to Macaluso.

    As the storage hub of Cushing, Okla. “continues to reach closer its operating capacity, it has been said at this rate, operational capacity could be reached as soon as next month,” he said.

2.82-0.05(-1.74%)Mar 26 4:00 PMEDT