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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

ksn_44 148 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 minutes ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 13, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    Oh, that is a negative, no question. But this is a variable, lending could explode next month.

    But some days it seems no matter the news, SFUN, LEJU and EJ are going to go up, some down. Almost as if a batch of investors wake up and say, let's sell them today, or, let's buy them today. Seems indifferent to news in general. Never know what the heck they will do from day to day.

  • Reply to


    by michaellipka Aug 12, 2014 4:59 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 13, 2014 12:00 AM Flag

    michael, did not see that. But your 20% OTO growth, I don't think we even START seeing growth "that low" for 2 or at least 3 years or even more. This year we will be triple digit for the year, at least for LEJU's OTO E Commerce biz.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 12, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    Bill, i think you are dead on, as much as I feel their OTO biz is the place to be, back in March, in no way shape or form did I see this heavy of a decline in Chinese real estate prices and transaction volume. I didn't see it, but the market did.

    Now the market is looking out a few more months and seeing a rebound. At least that is what this recent share price pop tells me. Throw in the excitement of what the OTO biz can provide, and we will have a very interesting CC next week.

  • Note the plunge in new home sales last week in Shanghai, yet RE stocks are soaring. There is either buying on the come, or the realization is that these OTO companies are going to make money regardless of transaction volume.


    NEW home sales plunged to the lowest in nine weeks as cautious sentiment continued to hang over among home seekers despite adequate supply, latest market data showed.

    The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, dropped 34.8 percent to 119,800 square meters during the seven-day period ended Sunday, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.

    "Though August is usually a slack season for property sales because of the hot weather, the weekly volume of below 120,000 square meters still seemed a bit rare," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "While overall transaction remained subdued, the comparatively better performance in the luxury segment helped drive up average price."

    Average cost of a new home climbed 4.4 percent week-on-week to 27,685 yuan (US$4,465) per square meter, Deovolente data showed.

    Notably among all, Tomson Riviera in the heart of Lujiazui, Pudong New Area, the city's most costly apartment project, sold one unit last week at an average price of 147,000 yuan per square meter, fetching totally 64 million yuan. It was the second apartment sold at the development so far this year, according to Deovolente.

    On the supply side, new houses totaling 180,000 square meters, majority of which located in outlying areas of the city, were released to the local market last week, a rise of 3.8 percent from the previous week.

    In the first ten days of August, new home transaction only stood at a low of 181,800 square meters. That compared to some 700,000 square meters of sales registered in July.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 11, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    OK, Norman, then where are they going to post their listings, the Yellow Pages of your phone book? Get on board, this is THEE place to post, Z will dominate the world of real estate in 10 years and RE commissions will be less than 3%. Ask any real estate agent if during the the crash years ago if they would have taken 3% versus ZERO SALES?! Any major dip in Z should be bought with BOTH HANDS.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 11, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    changlee, the industry is cyclical for sure, but according to ej/leju, they are not. to what degree they are "not" we will see in another week. if they have found the key to smoothing out the cycle this would be pristine. and if investors are not keen to supplying us with the multiple that Z has, for example, how about a regular cash dividend. i would be ecstatic with 3-5%.

    China targets Tencent's WeChat with new IM rules

    The Chinese government is requiring mobile messaging users with public accounts (celebrities, businesses, etc.) to register with their real names. It's also banning the sharing of "unauthorized" political news.The curbs are aimed in large part at Tencent's (OTCPK:TCEHY) WeChat, which has grown like wildfire and evolved into a platform for gaming, e-commerce, and much else. WeChat had 396M monthly active users at the end of Q1; Tencent should report a figure well above 400M during its Aug. 13 Q2 report.SINA's Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) has long been dealing with government crackdowns.

    A number of Weibo users have defected to WeChat in past quarters, while citing greater privacy and lighter censorship.At the same time, China is flat-out banning two Korean WeChat rivals: KakaoTalk and Naver's (OTC:NHNCF) Line. Line, the top mobile messaging platform in Japan, is set to go public in NYC and Tokyo.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 7, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    Judging by this CALL option information, I think you, and some option buyers, think the same thing


    The bulls have returned to E-House China after making a killing in the stock last month.

    optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker monitoring program detected massive call volume in the Shanghai-based company, which provides services similar to those of Zillow and Trulia on the Chinese mainland.

    First, they targeted the October 11s, gobbling up almost 4,800 contracts for $1.25 to $1.45. Less than an hour later, they moved closer in time and amassed roughly 4,000 September 11 calls for about $1.11. They also sold 8,000 of the September 13s for $0.28, forming a bullish ratio spread.

    Owning calls locks in the price where investors can get long, while selling obligates them to unload shares if certain prices are reached. The initial trade in the October 11s was outright bullish, with significant leverage to a rally. The second trade had limited upside potential, turning a $0.55 initial outlay into $2 if the stock closes at $13. He or she probably came into the session long common equity and is using the strategy to make more money from a limited move. (See Chris's discussion of repair strategies in today's educational Advantage Point column.)

    EJ rose 4.52 percent to $11.10 in afternoon trading. It was initially flagged researchLAB in mid-June when the stock was below $9, lit up Heat Seeker early the next month and then ripped toward $12 in late July. Traders following our Inside Options and Inside Options Pro newsletters doubled their money from the moves.

    Shares are now attempting to bounce around the same level where they peaked in late May, which could make some chart watchers think it will continue higher. Earnings are due before the opening bell on Aug. 20.

    Total option volume is 9 times greater than average in the name, with calls outnumbering puts by more than 70 to 1.

  • Reply to

    Wow 1.00 div announced by SFUN, that's a lot

    by babbeo6 Aug 7, 2014 11:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 7, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    In a perfect investing world, considering the shares I own it would only be wise to buy some puts for a hedge. That said, the gambler that I am, it is more than likely I will be adding to my Sept CALL positions. Goldman, and LEJU management themselves, have been pounding the table about growth this Q....that penetration rate is what everyone seems to be focusing on. So, again, I think we go balls out for this Q. The real question is though, will we get some semblance of the multiple that Z is enjoying right now. If so, the stock goes volcanic. I am still banking on that expanded multiple.

  • Look at their growth in E Commerce. And is interesting that they blame weak new home growth. It is pretty much common knowledge that LEJU will report TRIPLE DIGIT E Commerce growth this Q. Why will they not blame weak new home growth (we hope they won't, at least)???

    The disparities in the business models have never been more evident to me.

    Q2 marketing services (ad) revenue +26.1% Y/Y to $74.3M. E-commerce services +8.1% to $48.6M (hurt by weak new home demand) , listing services +8.5% to $38.4M (secondary home weakness + fee cuts), other value-added services +97.6% to $3.6M (data services growth).
    Gross margin rose 70 bps Y/Y to 82.6%. Opex grew 35.9% to $57.6M, exceeding revenue growth of 16.7%.

  • Reply to

    Wow 1.00 div announced by SFUN, that's a lot

    by babbeo6 Aug 7, 2014 11:29 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 7, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    A bit deceiving, it may be the market is deceived as well. But a good question raised.

    In any case, you can see EJ/LEJU is posting AFTER AUGUST EXPIRATIONS AGAIN. Damn. But look at the call volume for September. OFF THE CHARTS. WOWOWOWOW.

  • Reply to

    upcoming qtr could blowout

    by changlee40919 Aug 6, 2014 3:05 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 7, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    I guess the online aspect is recognized in Z but not yet in LEJU/EF. No more complicated than that.

    SFUN popped a massive dividend payout this morning. Wowowowow.

  • Reply to

    Im out from 12.30

    by dblshockpower Aug 7, 2014 9:42 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 7, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    In the stock market bizarro world though, perhaps the worst is over and it is on up from here?

  • Reply to

    Im out from 12.30

    by dblshockpower Aug 7, 2014 9:42 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 7, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    That is one heck of a dividend though. Where else you going to get this rate?

  • Reply to

    upcoming qtr could blowout

    by changlee40919 Aug 6, 2014 3:05 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 6, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    Yes, LEJU should not have been impacted by the SFUN fiasco whatsoever. As far as the numbers go, they will show triple digit revenue growth, but the potential VOLCANIC impact from Weixin/Weibo may take a few months or quarters really to trickle into the results. Even without this impact, as I said, LEJU still comes in with TRIPLE DIGIT growth YOY. And for this, a PE of 12. This is nuts!

  • Reply to

    Spoilage runover from SFUN

    by ksn_44 Aug 5, 2014 11:32 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 6, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Even all that said, be it LEJU or SFUN, these people have to list. So SFUN will get their business back to some extent as well, perhaps at a reduced listing fee. But they are far too big for the agents to ignore for too long.

  • Reply to

    Spoilage runover from SFUN

    by ksn_44 Aug 5, 2014 11:32 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 6, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    Then this Don Young guy puts out his piece this morning on SA throwing his errors out at the masses. Leju very well could be the winner on all this, but as of now, their revenue from secondary listings is borderline negligible. And for that they took a 9% haircut yesterday. Shows even the big investors do not understand the biz model. I have to make that clear to IR today.

  • Unfortunately, this seems to have hit us again on Tuesday, even though Goldman a month ago said the impact was negligible. What, do they have to come out again and say it?

    Property agencies pull information off website

    A total of 13 major property agencies in Shanghai Tuesday took off housing information they earlier posted on the website of real estate portal SouFun Holdings Limited in protest to an increase in listing charges, a move analysts said can cause immense damage to SouFun.

    SouFun's prices for property agencies have increased 10 times in the past five years while property agencies' service fees have remained almost unchanged, according to a news release from Centaline Group's Shanghai branch, one of the 13 property agencies, sent to the Global Times Tuesday on behalf of the protesting agencies.

    In the first quarter of 2014, despite a cooling real estate market, SouFun's revenue from housing information listing services surged by 57.1 percent year-on-year to $42.1 million, according to the US-listed company's first quarter earnings report released on May 7. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on Thursday.

    Property agencies have been spending more on online listings and promotion in recent years but they are also more sensitive to costs in a slowing real estate industry, Li Zhanjun, research director of the Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, told the Global Times Tuesday.

    The protesting agencies claimed that SouFun's jump in listing services revenue comes from surging charges because SouFun continues to promote new service packages which rank property information by listing fee rather than the housing quality and price, according to the news release.

  • Reply to

    Great Video on Youtube about LEJU / Z

    by michaellipka Aug 5, 2014 1:11 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 5, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    I believe with their discount coupons we will see at least 50% OTO transactions in the next 10-15 years. Wondering why these coupons are not used here in the US?

    Will be watching Z closely tomorrow to see if investors are still satisfied with that triple digit multiple.

  • Reply to

    Great Video on Youtube about LEJU / Z

    by michaellipka Aug 5, 2014 1:11 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Aug 5, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Z has revenue of something like $70M and a bottom line loss....stock over 130. This is pretty tough to watch, especially considering LEJU will have triple digit growth while also making money with a forward PE of 11.

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