We need Goldman to step up here. Or Dinsong over at CS. Somebody.
New home sales seen up, price rise fair
By Cherry Cao | April 11, 2015, Saturday
TRANSACTIONS involving new homes in Shanghai are set to exceed 10 million square meters this year while prices are expected to rise moderately from a year ago, global property services provider DTZ said.
“We expect to see new home sales rise from 9.47 million square meters in 2014, with buyers’ momentum continuing to recover over the next couple of months amid positive signals from the government,” said Jenny Wu, director of residential sales for east China operations at DTZ.
“The average price for mid- to low-end homes could gain 10 percent for the whole year while the increase in the high-end segment might be between 5 and 8 percent during the 12-month period.”
Transactions of new houses costing above 50,000 yuan (US$8,064) per square meter rose 24 percent to nearly 200,000 square meters in Shanghai between January and March. The average cost of the luxury homes gained 9.3 percent annually to 69,000 yuan per square meter.
In the first quarter 746 new homes costing over 10 million yuan each were sold, up 48 percent annually, according to DTZ. Comparatively, the city’s overall new home sales in the first three months totaled 1.89 million square meters, down 8.1 percent yearly, DTZ said.
In a move to boost sales, the central government recently eased mortgage policies for second-time buyers and cut the minimum down payment for first-time buyers using housing provident funds while the Shanghai Housing Provident Fund Management Center raised the ceiling on mortgages.
Wow! Those are heady numbers.
Source:Global Times Published: 2015-4-12 17:38:02
China's real estate sector has regained an air of prosperity since the government enacted several favorable policies earlier this year.
Market research institution statistics show that there has been a rebound in home transactions in some cities. This is especially obvious in several first-tier cities. Second-hand home sales in Beijing in March rose 17 percent compared to the previous month, and 13.5 percent year-on-year, according to the market research division of Homelink, a local real estate brokerage.
The real estate market has rebounded in some second-tier cities as well. However, the real estate market hasn't turned around everywhere. Some cities, such as Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, still suffer from high inventories. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the total area of housing unsold in China was 421.77 million square meters by the end of February, up 23.4 percent year-on-year.
So, it can be seen that China's real estate market varies widely from place to place. And it is only expected to get worse. Under these circumstances, the central government should enact different policies in different cities, and refrain from a one-size-fits-all approach.
Local governments should institute detailed rules and regulations tailored to local conditions, yet still based on the national policy.
According to Asian high statistics show Qingming small holiday period (April 4 to April 6th), Beijing city’s total turnover of 661 sets of commercial housing turnover total area of 63,000 square meters, compared with the same period last year, were up 222% and 167%; the average transaction price reached 25,792 yuan / square meter, an increase of 1%.
Contrary to all we have been hearing for the past twelve months, it appears from a journalistic standpoint the tide has turned.
Some people got the memo about boosting confidence in the housing market and and some even added extra pieces of flair. Midland Realty National Research Center, for instance, says first-tier city home prices will jump 15-20% in Q2.....According to the National Research Center Midland Property judge, “We expect the volume of the housing market in the second quarter, will rise by 15% -20% on the basis of the first quarter, the price will also usher in the first wave of 2015 rose period.”
The municipal government of Shanghai is raising the limit of the amount of money people can borrow from the city's public housing fund.
Starting on Wednesday, first-time home buyers will be able to borrow up to a million yuan.
The current ceiling is 600-thousand yuan.
The Public Housing Fund is a compulsory savings account to which Chinese workers and their employers have to contribute.
The fund offers a mortgage rate below that of commercial banks.
Market analysis suggests the average cost of a new home in Shanghai came in at 3.2 million yuan last year.
The move follows a decision by the central government to allow first-time home buyers who use the Housing Fund to only put down 20-percent as a down payment.
This is down from 30-percent.
The minimum down payment for second-home buyers has also been reduced to 40-percent from the previous 60 to 70 percent threshold.
The truth is these measures have been enacted for the past six months and the stock has done nothing but go straight down. I have been saying for that entire time that at some point there would be buying on the come. Now I did not think EJ LEJU would be forecast to lose money for the first Q either. I have also posted numerous times as to the valuation disparities between EJ LEJU, Z and World Union (listed on Shanghai). These valuations differences are gigantic. This is not new news. As it is EJ LEJU are still grossly undervalued. The measure of that undervaluation suffers a bit when a company begins to lose money after years of profitability however.
Now don't go telling us "how smart you think you are when your stock is going up", everyone thinks they're a genius. In all likelihood, the tutes and hedgies all of a sudden decided after a year of a tremendous beatdown, all of a sudden they are buying Chinese. And that is what is happened. Are you watching YINN and FXI? Everything Chinese has a fire lit under them. You happened to get lucky. And that is all this is, quite frankly, but luck.
Shanghai will raise the ceiling of loans drawn from public housing funds to 1.2 million yuan ($193,320) from 800,000 yuan, the local authority said Thursday.
Currently, a first-time home buyer in Shanghai can borrow as much as 400,000 yuan from the fund to buy a home, while a family can borrow up to 800,000 yuan. Starting from Wednesday (April 15), the lending cap will be raised to 600,000 yuan and 1.2 million yuan, respectively, Shanghai Provident Fund Management Center said in a statement posted on its website.
Second home buyers for improved housing conditions will also enjoy the same treatment as first-time home buyers, according to the statement.
Starting from May 1, the center will also relax requirements for people using public housing funds to rent houses.
"The policy adjustment has sent a positive signal to the property market," Yan Yuejin, a researcher with Shanghai-based E-House China R&D Institute, told the Global Times Thursday.
"Home buyers' debt burden will be lowered given the lower interest rate of public housing funds loans compared to commercial loans," he said. According to his calculation, the new policy could help a family save around 100,000 yuan.
Probably why SFUN spiking hire than EJ LEJU. LEJU desperately trying to break into this market.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst with property information provider Centaline, said those new policies stretch way beyond market expectations.
"Especially the lowering of down payment to 40 percent for second homes--that's probably the loosest policy in history," Zhang said. "This will definitely spur demand in the housing market."
According to Zhang, this demand will increase at least 10 percent because fewer down payments are required, and the transaction volume will increase at least 30 percent month on month in first- and second-tier cities. Meanwhile, he projected the housing price will start increase in first-tier cities.
"These new policies are a sign that the Central Government wants to encourage people to buy a second home to improve their living conditions. Local governments will follow suit to release pro-growth measures to lift the sector," Zhang said.
Hu Jinghui, Vice President of BA Consulting and 5i5j Group, a real estate company in China, said loosening taxation rules will reduce costs for home buyers and therefore shore up transactions.
"Those new policies are mainly targeted at people who want to buy second homes. That particular group has become the key to stabilizing China's housing market," Hu said.
Huang Yu, Executive Vice President of China Index Academy, a Beijing-based property research organization, agreed with Hu, projecting that such affects will be long-lasting.
"Judging from China's population structure, the demand for buying a second home will gradually increase from 2016 and will account for the bulk of the demand by 2020," said Huang.
I honestly do not know, but as a 37% owner should the new company's stock appreciate EJ's surely should as well.
E-House is evolving a strategy of spinning off its various units into separate companies, which helps differentiate its businesses and gives stock buyers more focused investment options.
In addition to reduced down payments, interest rates are being slashed:
Zhejiang Bank lowered the interest rate on ordinary home loans of less than ￥5 million to 0.7 times the benchmark interest rate and 0.85 times the benchmark for loans of more than ￥5 million.
Minimum 30% discount breaks the central bank’s second home interest rate limit of 1.1 times the benchmark. Asked whether cutting the second home mortgage rate “is illegal”, Zhejiang banks declined to comment, saying “there is no more information.”
Reporters noted that the central bank said in the New Deal in the March 30 “specific proportion of down payment and interest rates reasonably determined by the banking institutions based on the borrower’s credit status and repayment ability,” Does this mean that the second home interest rates limit of 1.1 times is broken?
Previously the central bank restricted second home mortgages to 1.1 times the benchmark, but now Zhejiang has slashed the rate to 0.7 times. Based on current rates, that cuts the mortgage from 5.89% to 3.75%.
Among them, the turnover of the average price of highest of properties for sale for Wanliu academy, a total of turnover of 15 sets of, turnover the average price of amounted to 134,985 yuan / square meter, clinch a deal the amount of for the 532 million yuan; ranked second place is the the central axis of international, clinch a deal 1 sets, the amount of for the 66 million yuan, the average price for 118,669 yuan / square meter; the third-bit, compared with Pangu Taikan, clinch a deal 96 sets of, average transaction price for 107,705 yuan / square meter, clinch a deal the total amount of for 6.817 billion yuan; even if is the average transaction price the lowest of the project, the average price is also close to 70,000 yuan / square meter.
According to the “Chengdu Business Daily” reported that after the New Deal during the Qingming holiday, Chengdu, some real estate booming, and even buy a house “abandoning vacation.”
At 11:00 on April 5, in Chien-fa · Heron Island International Chengdu Tianfu Road and South Second Street intersection, although close to lunch time, but buyers still flocked to the sales department contacts, in consultation with the district almost packed, popularity is very busy.
Even though the media is trying to whip up a housing frenzy, they don’t want to actually cause a housing frenzy, so everyone please be more rational this time.
In Beijing, luxury homes are selling like hot cakes and prices inside the 4th ring have crossed above ￥80,000 per sqm, up from ￥50,000 in 2013. Luxury booms as the rest of the market stagnates, sounds familiar,
Accurate wtpek..........Is the mood really changing or is the media whipping up sentiment as per government orders? With mortgage rates tumbling and tax changes working in their favor, sellers are hiking prices. There’s definitely a pickup in luxury activity, with buyers lining up to buy homes in Shanghai and Beijing sales and prices ticking up . Meanwhile, in Chengdu, homebuyers abandoned their Qing Ming Festival vacation plans to look at houses instead, Shanghai, people with net worth of ￥10 million and above queued up to buy homes in the wake of changes to the law, leading to ￥400 million in sales in one day.
March 30 the introduction of the New Deal 22 o’clock that night, Shanghai Huangpu financial Green Bay, Royal Park are selling very popular, million net worth above the crowd, have queued overnight to buy a house. Data show that 31 evening, Shanghai into green single-day turnover reached 400 million yuan, the data, aspirations Shanghai housing prices the highest single-day turnover.
Prices of new homes in 288 cities fell 0.01% in March, the 12th consecutive drop on a monthly basis, a poll by property services provider Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC) showed. The drop slowed from a 0.06% decline in February.
But home prices were 1.71% lower compared to a year ago, from 1.62% in the previous month.
"The index has been falling for one year, but the monthly drop has been narrowing for four months," said CRIC, owned by E-House China Holdings Ltd.
A separate survey by China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) showed average prices in 100 of the biggest cities fell 0.15% in March on-month, also narrowing from a 0.24% fall in February.
Compared with a year ago, home prices dropped 4.35%, the sixth consecutive month showing an annual fall, compared to 3.84% fall in the previous month, said CREIS, a consultancy linked to China's largest property data provider, Soufun Holdings.
I don't sell as I am so far underwater it would be ludicrous to give up at this point. But I sure ain't buyin a whole lot either. Generally with any pop my aim is to short that pop in the hopes of recouping some of my lost megadollars. Believe you me, I hope you are DEAD RIGHT about the future, and right now, I can line up a steady diet of opinions on both sides as to how this plays out. Some good actually. But it is going to be hard pressed and hard earned. The company is first to market in OTO. That is a valuable commodity. They are growing revenue 20% a year, strictly organically. Not many others can say that now in this environment. But right now organic growth will not cut it 12-18 months and beyond from now. They will eventually be neck and neck with multiple competitors in OTO in a year from now, So many tie ups and new entrants are lining up at the gates and EJ LEJU sees this in their future. So they are in SPEND SPEND SPEND mode. And the fruits of this will not pay off, if at all, for at least a year. Now blue brought up the buy out thesis. And I had not even thought of that, But they have all the tools and hold alot of the cards. I have to believe at some point someone would be interested. I have alot more to write about but will spell some of that out later. Again, I hope you are DEAD RIGHT. But the headwinds are able and strong. It is good to see them bouncing back a bit this morning after that beat down yesterday. I am not so sure how far this can go. From everything I read, AN INTEREST RATE CUT IS FAR MORE VALUABLE TO THE RE SECTOR THAN THESE RECENT POLICY MOVES. I think we get one of these during the month of April. So that should add a little fuel.
They don't have 4 bucks a share cash. Some of that cash belongs to LEJU. I think it is more like 2 bucks, if that. Read my other posts, trouble is here. And don't blame me, look at the share price. Others agree. That is, others with money. They are doing OK organically, but that ain't gonna cut it in this sector now. Everyone and their brother is entering. See SOHO and BAIDU. These are monster companies with deeppppppp pockets.
blue, I hope you saw my World Union write up. Chinese mainland listed realty stocks carry valuations at least 5X that of their US counterparts.
blue, it appears the barriers to entry as I have noted many times includes having an Internet connection. The players that be are all jockeying for position and it appears at this juncture EJ LEJU are being edged out. I mean if you don't believe me look at the share prices.
I would shout Hosannas to the heavens for those buyout prices at this juncture. You can see now that EJ LEJU are desperate in their new business ventures to the tune that they are forecast now to lose money for EJ and for LEJU to scrap by with a .03 profit for Q1. They are SPENDING SPENDING SPENDING in the hope (note I said HOPE) that these ventures pan out. I think they now know that anyone can sell homes in China, and with all the merger activity organic growth will only get you so far.
Yeah, we are in BIG TIME TROUBLE unless these new businesses pan out or someone would think to acquire us. I guess I never thought about it but why not. Zhou probably has too big an ego. And keep in mind, there will probably not be fruits with these new businesses until 2016 so in the interim it is SPEND SPEND SPEND and so the bottom line is being corrupted.
Oh, we will get some more interest rate cuts, and sales should increase as the year moves along, but you can see by the forecasts how the margins are being pinched. And even if the new businesses come through there will be other gigantic players entering the business between now and then. I hate to be so negative but I see the playing field has changed. And again don't come down on me look at the share price. Look at mighty SFUN they are struggling to survive as well. Mighty SFUN is an also ran just like we are.
You want another scary scenario, let's say the US markets take a hit, you know where EJ ends up? Yeah, right, probably in the low 3's......if that. I know. Very scary. We're in trouble here.