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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

ksn_44 190 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Jun 28, 1998
  • Reply to

    Man, what in the wide wide world of sports

    by ksn_44 Dec 10, 2014 10:27 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 17, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    venetian, two things. First, good info on that basket of Chinese stocks that have been hammered. I think as oil continues to slide these hedgies are meeting margin calls and dumping Chinese. This may be what is happening more recently, not sure why back earlier in the year these stocks were declining. Second, I have some transaction numbers emailed to me from Century 21 China today, I will have to look at them later to see how we compare to last year. Remember last year was off the charts as far as numbers, a better comparison is to 2012. But I will look at both.

  • Shenzhen leads rebound in China new home market
    Pickup in the new home sector on the mainland gains momentum on the back of policy support but analysts raise concerns over supply glut
    PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 17 December, 2014, 7:37am The pickup in new home prices firmed last month with an improvement in sales volume, the latest SCMP-Creda index showed, indicating signs of a market recovery following a flurry of policy support.

    Prices gained month on month in eight of the 10 major mainland cities, led by a jump of 18.94 per cent in Shenzhen.

    The other seven cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hangzhou and Nanjing.

    That was wider and deeper than the rise of less than 1 per cent in Tianjin and Hangzhou in October.

    "Shenzhen posted the best monthly sales performance so far this year and its prices also rose the most quickly across the country, driven by macro policies including the interest rate cut," said Chen Sheng, the dean of mainland consultancy China Real Estate Data Academy (Creda), a partner of the South China Morning Post for the monthly index, which covers home prices, sales and affordability in the 10 key cities. Home sales in Shenzhen rose 28.8 per cent last month from October, rising for a fifth consecutive month.

    Combined transaction volume in the 10 cities grew 10 per cent to 13.4 million sqmetres, the most so far this year and 75 per cent higher than in June when it hit the lowest level.

    But Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Hangzhou suffered slight declines in transactions from the previous month.

    Meanwhile, Wuhan suffered a month-on-month fall of 3.01 per cent in home prices and Chengdu saw a drop of 4.93 per cent......................cont'd

  • Reply to

    Dec week 1 sees 260....tide is or has turned

    by ksn_44 Dec 8, 2014 9:53 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 17, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    The data points keep rolling in positive, and our stocks keep going negative. It is nearly evident the cycle is at or even now past the turning point. Some day there will be a reckoning..............................................................................Home prices in Beijing and Shanghai rise further
    Buyers return to the markets in Beijing and Shanghai in the wake of mortgage relaxation
    PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 17 December, 2014, 7:37am The average price of a second-hand home in Beijing rose last month for a third consecutive month to a six-month high of 41,328 yuan (HK$51,720) per square metre, and Shanghai followed a similar trend, according to the SCMP-CTC index, adding to signs that policy relaxation is fuelling housing price inflation in top mainland cities.

    However, the month-on-month pickup pace in Beijing slowed to 0.8 per cent from October's 1.1 per cent.

    The price in Shanghai edged up 0.6 per cent to 34,264 yuan per square metre, the highest in four months, after a flat month.

    "The mortgage relaxation on people buying their second homes improved the funding of such buyers, who came back to the market despite a narrowing room for price negotiations with sellers," said mainland consultancy Century 21 China Real Estate (CTC), the South China Morning Post's partner for the monthly index.The index rose to 158 points in Beijing from October's 156. In Shanghai, it edged up to 142 from 141 in the previous two months.

    In year-on-year terms, the price trends have been diverging in the mainland's two most important housing markets.

    Prices in the capital fell 4 per cent for a third month, quickening from October's decline of 2.2 per cent.

    In Shanghai, however, prices have kept rising this year, albeit at a steadily slower pace. Last month's gain was 1.2 per cent.

    "First-time homebuyers are not enjoying [the central bank's] easy mortgage policies as about 40 per cent of the banks have yet to implement low rates," CTC said. "How the credit policies eventu

  • Reply to

    Man, what in the wide wide world of sports

    by ksn_44 Dec 10, 2014 10:27 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 16, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    Lots and LOTS of pain here. December going to have the best housing transaction volume of the year in China it appears. Obviously something going on behind the scenes us minions are not privy too. Very painful. Like a death by a thousand paper cuts, although today was like a machete.

    On the other hand, Chinese RE stocks are on a tear. The Shanghai RE Index was at 3500 the beginning of November now it is 5327. That is just in a little over six weeks. The disconnect is maddening. Something clearly lurks beneath the surface that I am sure will be exposed and we will know of far too late.

  • I think this trades like 85000 shares a day or something like that so probably no effect on LEJU.

    Nasdaq makes quarterly changes to Golden Dragon China Index • 12:28 PM


    Added to the index, effective on Dec. 22: Cheetah Mobile (CMCM -2.7%), DAQO New Energy (DQ +3.9%), China HGS Real Estate (HGSH +25.7%), Jumei International (JMEI -5.9%), China Finance Online (JRJC -12.7%), Leju Holdings (LEJU -1%).
    Dropped: China Information Technology (CNIT -9.2%).

  • Reply to

    Dec week 1 sees 260....tide is or has turned

    by ksn_44 Dec 8, 2014 9:53 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 15, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Week 2 sales numbers still strong.....not that it matters it seems...........

    ***********************************************************************************************************

    NEW home sales remained above the 200,000-square-meter threshold for the fifth consecutive week in Shanghai despite an insignificant retreat as demand for mid- to low-end houses continued to be strong.

    The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-funded affordable housing, fell 4.7 percent week over week to 247,900 square meters during the seven-day period ended Sunday, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.

    "Strength extended further in the local property market as sentiment among home seekers remained robust particularly in the medium- to low-end segment, continuously fuelled by a batch of policies introduced recently by the central and Shanghai governments," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "Hopefully, new home transaction volume will exceed 1 million square meters again this month."

    New homes sold last week cost an average 28,246 yuan (US$4,615) per square meter, down 0.45 percent from a week earlier. meanwhile, new home supply, which reflects developers' sentiment, dropped to the lowest in five weeks.

    A total of 150,900 square meters' new residential properties were released to the local market last week, a week-over-week plunge of 71.2 percent, according to Deovolente.

    "With more real estate developers getting closer to their annual sales target, some of them were just not as eager as before to launch their projects," Lu said.

    In the first two weeks of December, sales of new homes already totaled 508,000 square meters.

  • Reply to

    Bank lending to ramp

    by ksn_44 Dec 11, 2014 1:20 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 12, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    TIBEIJING--Chinese banks increased lending faster than expected in November amid signs that the central bank's bid to expand credit to a slowing economy was working.

    The People's Bank of China last month continued to rein in lightly regulated shadow-bank lending even as it routed credit to the real economy, economists said Friday. But some added that it was too early to tell whether the monthly new loan expansion represented a sustained credit boost or a temporary blip at a time of weakness in the nation's manufacturing, real estate and trade sectors.

    "One month is not enough to conclude that things have really improved," said Crédit Agricole CIB economist Dariusz Kowalczyk. "It's a small bright spot in an otherwise soft landscape." Economists said November's increased demand for new yuan loans may have been driven by central bank moves aimed at relaxing bank-lending quotas and easing loan-to-deposit ratios. Under existing rules, Chinese banks can lend only 75% of the deposits they collect. Easing this rule effectively allows them to lend more.

    CIMB economist Fan Zhang said the central bank might also cut the reserve requirement ratio--the proportion of deposits that banks need to keep in reserve with the central bank--by the end of the year in a bid to further increase lending. The nation's major banks are supposed to keep 20% of their deposits with the central bank, though certain smaller banks are allowed to lend out more if they meet requirements for extending credit to smaller companies and the farm sector.

    Economists said they doubted last month's surprise interest-rate cut had much impact on the November lending data, given its timing relatively late in the month. On Nov. 21, the People's Bank of China pared the one-year lending rate by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6%, its first cut in more than two years.

    Before the November cut, China's central bank showed a preference for targeted easing measures amid concern that an across-the-board cut in interest rate

  • Reuters) - China has told its banks to lend more in the final months of 2014 and relaxed enforcement of loan-to-deposit ratios to expand credit, sources told Reuters, as Beijing prepares to release data that could confirm the relentless slowing of its economy.

    Figures on inflation, imports and fiscal spending in November have already undershot expectations since the People's Bank of China (PBOC) sprang a surprise interest rate cut on Nov. 21, raising fears that the bid to boost lending could foreshadow more weak figures on industrial activity for the month, due on Friday, and on lending, due in the next few days.

    "I wouldn't be surprised by that at all," said Andrew Polk, resident economist for the Conference Board in Beijing. "It seems pretty clear activity is continuing to weaken throughout this fourth quarter."

    Two sources with knowledge of the matter said China's central bank increased the annual new loan target to 10 trillion yuan ($1.62 trillion) for 2014, up from what Chinese media have said was a previous target of 9.5 trillion yuan. Banks have disbursed 8.23 trillion yuan of loans between January and October, so they will have to quicken the pace in the last two months if they are to meet the new target.

    If upcoming data also proves worse than expected, some analysts say the PBOC could cut banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) as soon as this weekend, allowing them to further increase lending.

  • is happening to LEJU. 100 share sales are driving it down a nickel at a time. They are approaching their IPO price, this is either the steal of the century or someone knows something nasty. In the last six months, however, any sale or shorting of EJ/LEJU has been a good decision. I do note that the MONEY FLOW INDICATOR on LEJU is 23, the lowest it has ever been, indicating it is probably a buy here. Of course, that is a technical indicator, if something fundamental has happened within the company, all bets are off.

    This deviation from how the Developers are doing on the Shanghai Composite Index to how US listed Chinese real estate stocks is maddening. This is beyond my understanding. It would seem EJ/LEJU follow more how US housing stocks are doing rather than what is happening in China. There is zero connection to the Chinese markets at this point. Zero.

  • Reply to

    Unit transactions for 2014

    by ksn_44 Dec 8, 2014 12:44 PM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 8, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Note: if the first week of December means anything, the average for the first two months of the 4th Q will most likely BE HIGHER.

  • Obviously the investment community is paying no attention whatsoever. Perhaps they are concerned if the reversal will continue into 2015. Understandable I suppose. But here are Quarterly Unit transaction averages for 2013 for SHANGHAI. First primary sales. Yahoo probably is going to format this miserably.

    *************************************************************************************************

    2013 (ave units)
    1st Q 5048
    2nd Q 5859
    3rd Q 5952

    Now, since the PBOC loosened policy, below is the average for the first two mos of Q4

    Oct & Nov 8964

    *********************************************************************************************

    Same upward trajectory with secondary unit sales

    1st Q 16,717
    2nd Q 15,121
    3rd Q 13,268

    And, the ave for Oct-Nov

    two months 19,458

    *******************************************************************************************

    I see oil is crashing. EJ is being pummeled. Of course, oil down, EJ down. Makes perfect sense ).

  • THE first week of December continued to register strong sentiment among both home buyers and real estate developers despite a retreat in sales volume, latest market data suggest.

    The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-funded affordable housing, fell 18.7 percent from the previous seven-day period to 260,100 square meters, remaining above the 200,000-square-meter threshold for the fourth consecutive week, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released today.

    "Despite the withdrawal, the weekly volume was still quite good for this time of the year," said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher. "Ever-climbing supply of new homes seemed to be the major reason behind the current sales boom."

    Around the city last week, new housing properties totaling 524,100 square meters were released to the local market, a week-on-week surge of 21.7 percent and also the highest weekly volume recorded in 219 weeks, or more than four years, according to Deovolente data.

    The city's inventory of new homes, as a result, kept rising after supply outnumbered sales for 4 consecutive weeks.

    As of today, new homes available for sale remained above 13 million square meters across the city, according to www.fangdi.com, the city's official real estate information website. That compared with 4.96 million square meters of new houses sold in Shanghai during the six months ended November 30.

    A series of measures introduced the past two months by the central and local governments have successfully boosted morale in the market which is, however, still plagued by a high inventory.

    "It is possible for December to become the best performing month of this year if the current pace of sales can be maintained," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst with Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co. "Real estate developers are advised not to raise their prices as far as inventory still remained high."

  • Reply to

    Another huge up day in China

    by venetianplayers Dec 4, 2014 2:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 8, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    Won't stop. Wow, this is something. Been undervalued for years and what, now everyone realizes it? Hard to figure.

    *********************************************************************************

    China’s Shanghai Composite Index surged above 3,000 for the first time since April 2011 as the country reported a record trade surplus.
    Though today’s data is seen as a sign of weakness for China’s economy, weak imports left the country with a trade surplus of $54.5B. Exports rose 4.7% from a year earlier, while imports dropped 6.7%, their biggest drop since March.
    Over the past month, the Shanghai Composite has soared 21% on cheap valuations and expectations of more policy easing. The benchmark closed up 2.8% at 3,020.26 today, after falling as much as 2% in early trading.

  • Reply to

    Policies boost housing index

    by venetianplayers Dec 6, 2014 4:36 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 7, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    At least we got a shout out from Tim Seymour again on CNBC on the final go around on Fast Money. They all had to pick one stock to buy and he picked EJ.

  • Home prices in China’s major cities will rise again next year now that local governments have lifted property restrictions that depressed demand, the chief executive officer of Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL) said.

    The nation’s housing market will get a renewed boost from strong interest driven by urbanization, lack of other investment opportunities and relatively limited supply due to land shortages, said Colin Dyer, president and chief executive officer of the Chicago-based real estate broker.

    “The fundamental thing that I always get reminded by colleagues is the huge demand for residential space in China,” Dyer said in an interview yesterday in Beijing. “We expect price rises will start again next year in the tier-one cities” before spreading.

    Jones Lang LaSalle’s prediction of a price rebound puts it at odds with banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., which remain skeptical that a recovery in sales is sustainable. Prices have dropped this year in the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and sales tumbled 10 percent nationwide in the first 10 months of the year.

    “You can see the formation of a bottom on prices right now in tier one, and we can start to see positive month-on-month price growth early next year,” Steven McCord, Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of research for North China, said in the interview. “Buyers who were waiting on the sidelines for the last 12 plus months now have the confidence to return,” he said, citing mortgage borrowers’ reduced monthly payments.

    The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates for the first time since 2012 last month. All but five of the 46 cities that had imposed home-purchase restrictions removed or relaxed them this year.

  • The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) is working on a report that projects a 40% to 80% rise in the Shanghai Composite in 2015, to a level between 4000 and 5000. The move will be driven by government policy and capital shifts.

    The report references the May 19, 1999 surge in stocks that saw the Shanghai Composite gain nearly 70 percent in six weeks of trading. CASS senior economist Yin Zhongli sees many similarities between than 1999 market and stocks in 2014.

  • Reply to

    Another huge up day in China

    by venetianplayers Dec 4, 2014 2:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 4, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    Shanghai soars the most in two years
    The Shanghai Composite gained 4.3% overnight, bringing its advance over the past month to 19%, the most among 93 global markets. The index is now higher by 37% year-to-date.The rally comes not just alongside a PBOC rate cut, but as mainland stocks opened up to global investment in early November - exchange volume nearly doubled the previous 30-day average.

  • Reply to

    Another huge up day in China

    by venetianplayers Dec 4, 2014 2:48 AM
    ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 4, 2014 6:50 AM Flag

    venetian, 12? Wow, that is putting it mildly. We should be 15, at least. Especially if the RE spigot will continue to be unleashed. The PBOC knows how much they NEED HOUSING. Perhaps with prices under control (unfortunately seen as a huge negative by investors) we can still ramp up the ECOM transactions.

    As you fully well know though, Shanghai has been the worst performing stock exchange throughout the world for the past 3-5 years, so this is their comeuppance so to speak.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 3, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    Your cost basis for LEJU shares will be the distribution date.

  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 3, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Jackie Du has been completely silent. I did write EJ/LEJU IR about the SFUN connection. It would seem at this point SFUN needs what we have (a bustling OTO business) and they have what LEJU wants (listings). Perhaps LEJU could come in with a fresh perspective as the Property Retailers in China have had it up to here with SFUN's listing prices. On the other hand, the retailers cannot survive without it. It one sense, SFUN has them by the tail.

XIN
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