Venetian, one house, one woman, controls the stock price, although I expect it is the higher up Goldman traders that really probably tell her WHEN to put out her nonsense. Hey, muted reaction though so far, but you can bet believe it will pop hard....and soon. Can you imagine if she had piled on with another downgrade though? Yikes.
Their oughta be a law......but their ain't. Goldman's clients started buying two days ago. They will run it to 14-15 over time, then downgrade it again. You will have to short it I'm afraid. Goldman has done this about 8 times the past few years. They must have photos on some E House execs.
Goldman owns EJ/LEJU. Whatever Jacqueline says......the stocks move accordingly. Unfortunately the other houses mean next to nothing here.
According to what the LEJU COO noted two CC's ago, there should not be any revisions. Let's see if he has to eat some crow. I note that SFUN and some of the others have been "hooking up" like crazy. Nothing new of note has come from EJ/LEJU in that regard, although again, my hunch says something big is coming.
Buying momentum surged in Shanghai last week, lifting new home sales to the highest in over six months, according to latest market data.
The purchases of new homes, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, soared 110 percent week on week to 247,300 square meters during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, the highest weekly volume registered since the end of March, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a report released yesterday.
"Due to the latest central government policy to relax mortgages for some home buyers, both supply and sales exceeded the 200,000-square-meter threshold over the past week," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin.
"It could be viewed as a major rebound and might signal the market has finally started to strengthen."
Around 235,400 square meters of new housing were released in the city, up 48 percent from the previous week, Uwin data showed.
The average cost of the new homes fell 11 percent week on week to 26,336 yuan (US$4,299) per square meter.
A CITIC residential deve-lopment in outlying Jiading District became the best-selling project last week after 183 apartments were sold at an average 16,509 yuan per square meter, according to Uwin data.
The central bank announced before the National Day holiday a cut in minimum down payment and mortgage rates for some home buyers in one of its biggest moves this year to help a sagging housing market.
bill, right. i see the oversold markers are not nearly as bad now. Can you imagine if the govt had not stepped in recently with some of those loosening policies, we'd be at 6 bucks, or worse. I don't think anyone knows where this will end although I believe today the McClellan Oscillator will be at or near a record low for the year. Record lows generally signal explosive rebounds, but believe me, with any rebound, people will be selling EN MASSE.
If I get time I am going to post those oscillator results later.
All of a sudden at 3:25 PM EST, the selling of huge blocks has disappeared. Oh, there are still sizeable sells, but not as large. Very interesting. The market maker walked it down and sold so much, be it 5000 or 25000 shares, at each penny of the decline. Wow, the game is on.
This is very evidently a major fund bailing out there are 4500 shares on the ask continually. They are submitting this amount, and in many cases more, on each penny of the decline. Someone wants out very badly.
Note that in their last CC the COO of LEJU was quoted as saying declining housing prices should have no influence on the business of LEJU/EJ. In fact, due to increased advertising by the Developers to market their product it might even improve their revenues, thus the increased rev forecast for the year was made two quarters ago. Obviously, this has been summarily ignored by the investment community. I guess we will get our answers a month from now.
Interesting SFUN and EJ were the same price 3 weeks ago and now SFUN is 20% higher. EJ is the unloved, red-headed, left-handed step child of the RE sector, that is for sure. Have no idea why that is.
venetian, in a previous post, we have a direct comment from an E house executive that the post golden week transactions doubled, and were equal to the previous year. Now of course we do not know if this is a trend but it is a definitive market of what we MAY see in the months to come due to govt easing. I am surprised we are not seeing a stronger reaction in the RE stocks.
Property market shows stabilizing signs on mortgage rule easing (2)
(Xinhua) 15:07, October 09, 2014
Zhang Xu, an analyst with Homelink, said the central bank's policy adjustment first and foremost is making a strong impact on people's expectations of the Chinese property market.
Overall expectations are likely to reverse from being pessimistic to being neutral or even positive, and the improving sentiment is possible to help warm up the cool market, Zhang said.
Ding Zuyu, executive president of E-House Holding Ltd. which is a New York-listed real estate services company in China, said the core change brought about by the central bank's policy adjustment is the boost of otential home buyers' confidence.
A serious dry-up in home buyers' confidence, along with oversupply, has contributed tocurrent property downturn in China, Ding said.
In the week-long holiday, the number of transactions brokered by E-House Holding doubled that of the previous week, and was close to that in 2013, he said.
A rising confidence is expected to unleash cumulative demand from potential home buyersin current quarter ending in December, Ding said.
Nanjing, capital of east China's Jiangsu Province which had lifted home purchaserestriction on Sept. 21, reported total sales of 2,812 house units in the week-long holiday, a47-percent increase year-on-year and a record high.
Despite the upbeat sales, the trend of falling house prices won't be reversed in the nearfuture, according to Chen Xiaotian, deputy secretary-general of the China Real EstateAssociation.
Based on the cycle of the property industry, overall house prices are likely to continuefalling for the rest of this year, and prices could go up in the first half of 2015, Chen said.
A SIGNIFICANT rebound in buying sentiment during the last week of September helped boost monthly transaction to this year's second-highest though it was still far from a satisfactory volume for this time of the year, industry data showed today.
The purchases of new residential properties, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, totaled 765,900 square meters in Shanghai last month, an increase of 17.1 percent from August and a year-on-year drop of 45.9 percent, Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co said in a latest report.
"In the first nine months of this year, that volume (in September) was only dwindled by March when more than 864,000 square meters of new houses were sold across the city," said Huang Zhijian, chief analyst at Uwin. "However, the volume was not as good as expected particularly considering an abundant supply of over 1.3 million square meters during the same period."
About 1.31 million square meters of new homes were released to the local market last month, an increase of more than 30 percent from August, according to Uwin data.
The average cost of new homes, meanwhile, rose 5.2 percent month-on-month to 27,669 yuan (US$4,506) per square meter.
Citywide, a residential project in Chuansha, Pudong New Area, became the city's most sought-after development in September when 226 apartments at the project were sold for an average price of 31,624 yuan per square meter, according to Uwin data.
For the last three months of this year, Huang expected the transaction volume to pick up as real estate developers will be more likely to provide attractive discounts to lure buyers as a result of generally sluggish sales registered in the first three quarters. Last year, an average of 1.06 million square meters of new homes was sold around the city, Uwin data showed.
China is much more cautious than the U.S. when it comes to mortgages. Though the ratio is rising, mortgage debt is equivalent to 18% of China's gross domestic product, just a third of the U.S. level of 55%. Chinese homeowners can't access home-equity loans to finance their other consumption needs.
venetian, i totally agree with you, we have to sweat out each quarter. Housing stocks in China are valued much like their American counterparts in some ways, very volatile and always tenuous. Sort of like the airlines as well. Just not trustworthy enough, ie., too many variables in play. I had thought this OTO model would pull in more investors and command a higher multiple but we are just not seeing that. The exponential returns of this sector just are not there much to my dismay. I have surely mis interpreted what I thought would provide a whole lot of fuel to the stock price valuation. Very disappointed in that.
And I also am aware that this is a very down RE market in China. When it does get humming again, all the voices in play will start the noise about how out of control prices are in China and blah blah blah put a lid on the stocks in the sector as well. Although I definitively see LEJU/EJ as leaders, the headwinds in this sector are legion. There is pitfall after pitfall, and I don't have the answers about how best to achieve share price appreciation.
I still hold out my hunch of some sort of tie up (and here I see this morning Century 21 and SFUN are hooking up). I think it is more imperative than ever for something to happen for LEJU/EJ. I am surely not an expert in the field, but it does appear obvious they need something else to drive share price appreciation.
I was just thinking about that this morning. I guess that is THEE question. We will perhaps see once and for all if this OTO business model has performed according to expectations in a down market.
I still have this hunch that we will hear of a pairing up with a major company to foster more OTO and transactional business. It seems as if everyone in Chinese real estate AND any business for that matter are ramping up their E commerce business, and everyone wants to be tied to a leader. Let's see if we hear anything in the coming weeks.
I have owned QIHU on and off but not for several months. Lost track of it but I knew it had taken a big hit. I just looked at it and it is technically as oversold or more even than EJ of a week or so ago. It is a SCREAMING BUY for certainly a trade down here. SCREAMING. As far as fundamentals, I have no idea if they lost a contract or whatever or something like that. I will probably dip in with some CALL option purchases though as this is going to pop HARD. And I would say very soon. How long that pop lasts is THEE question. And, not saying that it cannot go down further cause of course it can....but the odds are of an upside pop are MUCH stronger.
I suspect there is no negative news but of course I will look. But I would sense this has been demolished like all Chinese internets, right?
with their lowered down payment requirements and reduced mortgage rates. This may mark the low. If it doesn't, the PBOC will stoke them some more. They have no choice, in one sense, the world economy is driven in large part (right or wrongly) by Chinese real estate.
Please, just be done with it. Disappear into the fields of chop suey and take our money with you. Why extend the misery.
First mortgage slash in 6 years
(Reuters) - China cut mortgage rates and down payment levels for some home buyers on Tuesday for the first time since the 2008 global financial crisis, making one of its biggest moves this year to boost an economy increasingly threatened by a sagging housing market.
The relaxation of lending rules for home buyers was accompanied by steps to increase financing for cash-strapped developers, which may have problems paying their debts if the property downturn persists, as many economists expect.
Yet some analysts cautioned investors against thinking that the housing market and broader economy were poised to stage a stunning recovery. A glut of unsold or unoccupied homes and buyers' expectations of further price declines could temper any rebound. "We will see the market boom with sales during the Golden Week," said Liu Yuan, the head of research at Centaline, a property consultant, in Shanghai.
"Such good news will make developers adjust their sales strategy overnight," he said, predicting a 15 percent monthly jump in property sales in October.
Second-home buyers can now get a 30 percent discount on their mortgage rates, an offer previously limited only to first-home buyers, the central bank and the banking regulator said. Downpayment levels were also cut to 30 percent from 60-70 percent. "I think the big macro call for China is: will home buyers respond to the signal from the central government that it's time to get back into the market?" said Tim Condon, an economist at ING Bank in Singapore.
200K is kind of the number you look for and would expect from the old days
SENTIMENT among home buyers in Shanghai improved again for the third week in a row while the average home price shot to the highest in 16 weeks on robust sales of mid- to high-end projects, latest market data showed.
The sales of new homes, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, rose 19.6 percent week on week to 208,100 square meters, Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co said in a report released yesterday.
The average cost of new homes gained 5.9 percent from the previous seven-day period to 29,429 yuan (US$4,782) per square meter, Deovolente data showed.
“The momentum among both home seekers and real estate developers rebounded last week as September, the traditional high season for property sales, was approaching its end,” said Lu Qilin, a Deovolente researcher.
“The abundant supply of high-end properties since the second half of August finally resulted in concrete sales.”
Meanwhile, 103 luxury homes costing more than 50,000 yuan per square meter each were sold during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, a weekly jump of 33, according to Deovolente.