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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

ktrader01 86 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 6:44 PM Member since: Oct 2, 2002
  • Reply to

    The Plants ate my cash!

    by elahens Feb 26, 2014 6:08 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Good point. If the warrant holders are not positive about the company's future, that is a good play. Lets play the devil's advocate, lets say I hold warrants with exercise price of $10. I think that the average price of all remaining warrants is about $9. Should I short it at $11.50 or should I wait till it is $15 or $20? Giving the huge earning beat (vs UE's earning estimate per Dec 13 update) and its implication on Q1 2014 earning, I will wait. I will get better spread. However if I am positive about the company's future, I will exercise my $10 warrants and maybe ask to be on the board. With that said, 8M warrant outstanding does put a ceiling on the share price. That was the reason I sold more than two third of my position at $8 which without saying was a BIG mistake.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Plants ate my cash!

    by elahens Feb 26, 2014 6:08 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    The long term debt is about $98M, current market cap is about $160M including the after-hour run-up. Simple calculation gives PEIX a $260M EV. That is still undervalue unless there is another major drought this fall. Ethanol is the cheapest transportation fuel right now. This is a turning point for many quarters of earnings to come. There is more fuel consumption than people estimate. There is lower corn base. There is higher gas price. So many drivers. You are too smart for you own good. Just like one guy on FSLR board couple of years ago. When FSLR was $15 bucks, he was all bullish with his detailed analysis. More he does the research, more issues he sees. Then he went short on FSLR at $30 right before the stock went to $60 in less than 6 months. Maybe eventual he will be right, but he probably will become insolvent by then. Never short a bull market. PEIX is still not fairly priced. More upside than downside. Besides technical plays by MM will make it more expensive than the fair price. If you are a value player like WB, you should not be on PEIX board. And you should never short any stocks. You will do much better with your intelligence and hard work on research.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Plants ate my cash!

    by elahens Feb 26, 2014 6:08 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    Can it be that warrant holders will exercise the warrants and hold the shares for further gain? Warrant holders get shares and PEIX gets cash. More dilution, but more cash to pay down the debt and to pay for the opening of the idle plant? Just my 2 cents.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Plants ate my cash!

    by elahens Feb 26, 2014 6:08 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    I assume that by shorting, you mean the warrant holders will exercise the warrants at lower than current share prices ($11 and change) and the sell at market price. So be it. If the evaluation is more than $11 per future diluted shares, then WS will buy the shares and hold them for future gains. And PEIX gets the cash to pay for plant opening. Anyone let me know if this does not make sense. This talking of warrant holders shorting stocks is really misleading when there is a base for share appreciation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Plants ate my cash!

    by elahens Feb 26, 2014 6:08 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    Don't the warrant holders have to buy the shares from the company therefore paying cash? Granted, there will be dilution but how can they short the stock and still be covered without paying for the underline shares of the warrants. I must missed something. Please enlighten me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Plants ate my cash!

    by elahens Feb 26, 2014 6:08 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    What happened elahens? Did you sell too early? Did you short PEIX? Cash flow is $18M for the quarter. Fair value adjustment of warrant means nothing to real earning. It will actually provide the cash for plant opening when the warrants are exercised. No real impact on earning besides additional dilution. If there is enough earning, dilution does not change P/E that much.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    after hours prediction

    by mdbsastud Feb 26, 2014 3:21 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 26, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    congratulations! It is still wicked good buy! 25% short. I was thinking of starting a business of exporting ethanol to China about 3 months ago. I took my eye off the CBOT ethanol chart for a month or two, it went straight up. It is probably late to do that business. But I am happy that I hold some of my shares and added a little bit more before the earning then more after the earning. I used to have 16K shares. Too bad I sold most of it earlier. What is your target price? My is $20 before after Q1 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 25, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    Do you mean the Chinese can not make a profit?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 18, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    LOL. Professionals will get in now that it is approved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If you sell you are DUMB !!

    by petarz Feb 18, 2014 6:39 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 18, 2014 6:40 PM Flag

    Added more here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EVERBODYIES IS SALING! AND SHORTING!

    by monkeyboy393 Feb 18, 2014 6:31 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 18, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    I am going sailing on your shorting money. You are being played now and will be squeezed tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CHTP will rice up tomorrow

    by wingwonton Feb 17, 2014 9:50 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 18, 2014 8:10 AM Flag

    Rice? Do you mean Rise, teacher?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CHTP- Frankfurt Today Close

    by ricemba1965 Feb 17, 2014 6:22 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 17, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Good finding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Mensa is yankin your chain...

    by sternbeachslime Feb 14, 2014 11:12 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 15, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Hi Mensa,

    For what I have been reading, you are right about paying extra money for expedited review. It is in addition to a normal PDUFA fee which FDA pretty much charges every NDA except drugs qualified for fast-track review. So it seems that your conclusion is correct, but your use of term is loose.

    Here is what I found from FDA site about Fee for Using a Priority Review Voucher in Fiscal Year 2014

    SUMMARY: The Food and Drug
    Administration (FDA or the Agency) is
    announcing the fee rates for using a
    tropical disease priority review voucher
    for fiscal year (FY) 2014. The Federal
    Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the
    FD&C Act), as amended by the Food and
    Drug Administration Amendments Act
    of 2007 (FDAAA), authorizes FDA to
    determine and collect priority review
    user fees for certain applications for
    approval of drug or biological products
    when those applications use a priority
    review voucher awarded by the
    Secretary of Health and Human
    Services. These vouchers are awarded to
    the sponsors of certain tropical disease
    product applications, submitted after
    September 27, 2007, upon FDA
    approval of such applications. The
    amount of the fee to be submitted to
    FDA with applications using a priority
    review voucher is determined each FY
    based on the average cost incurred by
    FDA in the review of a human drug
    application subject to priority review in
    the previous FY. This notice establishes
    the priority review fee rate for FY 2014

    Here
    TABLE 1—PRIORITY REVIEW
    SCHEDULE FOR FY 2014
    Fee category Fee rate for
    FY 2014
    Applications Submitted with
    a Priority Review Voucher
    in Addition to the Normal
    PDUFA Fee ....................... $2,325,000

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Check out their SEC filings yesterday. Buyers

    by jacat62 Feb 15, 2014 8:21 AM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Feb 15, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Thanks for pointing that out. I was wondering if anyone noticed that. I bought more share yesterday after-hour at $3.60 after seeing two new SEC filings.

    One is SC 13G by BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP with 8.2% ownership. Another is 13G/A by VENROCK HEALTHCARE CAPITAL with 2.4% ownership.

    However I have two questions after thinking about it twice.

    First, you only need to file within 10 days of the transactions. So I am not sure if the transactions were made on Friday Feb 14, 2014.

    Second, it is 13G not 13D, so there is no transaction detail. No sure it is a buy or a sale.

    Also both have December 31, 2013 as Date of Event Which Requires Filing of this Statement. What does that mean?

    Do you understand these filings? If so, care to share your take on them? How do you know it was related to transactions on Friday? How to tell if it is a buy or sale?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Way overpriced, going sub 10 in a year

    by brainashort Jan 25, 2014 10:02 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Jan 26, 2014 12:18 AM Flag

    Way overpriced by what measurement? The absolute share price or the forward PE multiples? Do you even understand what overprice means for a stock?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ktrader01 ktrader01 Jan 26, 2014 12:16 AM Flag

    Just google Chinese 2014 14GW Reuters. You will get tons of links. Raymond James is lying for sure as it works for short HF. Not sure why Shuli Ren from Barron will cooperate and write a timely piece of false news on Chinese solar industry. What a shame, being Chinese herself.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PLUG power

    by wtginbus100 Jan 25, 2014 11:05 PM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Jan 25, 2014 11:27 PM Flag

    Where did you get the 700 million in debt? They have very little debt. They have negative $820 Retained Earnings. But they do not have to pay down that. It is going to be an asset actually. Once they start to make money, they do not have to tax for a while because of the retained loss.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • baidu 国家能源局2014年14GW, you will find all links to the same story some with detailed breakdown of 2GW additonal capacity by each province.

    baidu 国家能源局2014年10GW, you got no article about 2014 and 10GW.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EU to cut carbon emissions by 40% by 2030

    by danielmoon899 Jan 24, 2014 7:35 AM
    ktrader01 ktrader01 Jan 25, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    Unfortunately for us who longs a lot of alternative energy stocks, this deal is not binding. There is no individual target for each member state. How can you enforce the target for EU as a whole? It just does not work. Very disappointing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

FSLR
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