Annual blood tests with physicals are generally zero with insurance. Vascepa will be Tier 2 on all plans quickly thus making cost with insurance much cheaper than OTC PLUSEPA.
It's possible that people like you that do not qualify for Vascepa coverage should use PLUSEPA as an alternative. Once Anchor is approved it becomes less likely that PLUSEPA would be chosen over Vascepa but there may be people with good Trig levels(below Anchor) that want a better overall lipid profile that Vascepa provides but feel that they don't need the full dose to accomplish. For these people PLUSEPA may be a better option than OTC DHA/EPA fish oil.
In your case with poor insurance and not eligible for Marine indication PLUSEPA is an alternative.
However, with Anchor approval it makes more sense to get Vascepa and you would want blood tests either way as everyone reacts differently, your body may respond better or worse than average and you would want to know if it is making enough of a difference and having regular blood work and regular dosage of Vascepa is a better option than randomly taking 2 or 3(depending on the day) OTC PLUSEPA but I do not disagree that for some people, if they want to get some fish oil benefits and agree EPA is better than EPA/DHA, taking PLUSEPA makes sense. For the larger majority, once Anchor is approved, Vascepa will be a much better option.
I agree no BO until stock price is 15 plus on it's own, once it reaches there the BO is more likely as I still believe management wants a BO but near $30 is their price.
If they can continue trending sales then price will get there, perhaps around the time of Anchor launch. They do have a decision to make on Anchor launch so will be interesting how that plays out. Once the way the launch Anchor is determined things will be much clearer, I expect that decision to be made between July and October so they have plenty of time to ramp up for the launch.
I do agree no BO imminent but within a year very plausible.
Apple released the IPOD in 2001 and Apple was around $10, at the end of 2003 it was around $10, shouldn't the stock price have been much higher with so much potential?
Your argument sounds great at the basic level but not in the 2013 stock market. Daytraders control much of the stock. WS funds want AMRN to prove that they can turn this into a BB drug before they buy it and let the price reflect it.
After dealing With constant bashing from shorts the facts have started to show that AMRN management will have a successful launch, that it is acting like a future BB drug and that most of the coming news the rest of this year and then next will be positive longs finally have facts to show they were right and will crow about it even knowing that the stock price may not reflect the "potential" until Anchor.
We still have earnings which won't be great and profit margin early on will be atrocious, and we have the Anchor launch money raise which could dilute the stock, could lose some of the future sales to a partner etc...
Those are the only things that look like possible negatives. Otherwise by end of year should have:
Sales in Marine that project to 200 million in 2014, Anchor sales project 200-400 million bringing 400-600 million in 2014 sales and a clear projection to 2 billion peak sales in Anchor and Marine with REDUCE IT and combo pill wild cards down the line. Which all leads to a $20 end of 2014 stock price or a $30 area BO.
Things could change but as of today the trend shows all that is more likely than not and thus longs are starting to see signs of vindication, regardless of current stock price, thus the need to finally use facts to throw back at the bashers, who are just plain annoying.
The details of the CC are what will matter.
WS could care less what sales and profit are for 2 months of selling a new drug. What they want to know is what's going to happen the next 6 months. How much Joe says about that will determine whether the CC and earnings have any bearing on the stock price. He needs to give SOME clarity. If he does stock will rise, if he doesn't could drop, simple as that.
NCE and Anchor partner deal are the two big stock movers one way or the other and don't expect either in this CC but hopefully waiting until the last possible day for the CC gives management the ability to give more clarity going forward.
Shorts are betting on poor earnings and no idea if they are right but I think the details are more important and neither short nor longs have any grasp on what Joe will say in those details.
AMRN expects sales to increase in th future, clearly. there are few scenarios where Vascepa does not become a BB drug so plannign ahead and adding barriers to entry is all good. Management is doing everything right for long term value, let's hope they nail the Anchor launch as that determines everything.
Nothing in the future is 100% known but Anchor will be approved by Dec 20 of this year. It would take some really bizarre, unlikely scenario for it not to be approved.
The question is the cost involved to launch. They will have over 5 times the sales force, how does that happen? What kind of financing/partnership/BO?
NCE not granted is a non issue, an actual decision will move the stock. Since it's all about Anchor and we are now within about a month of FDA acceptance and thus 8 months from Anchor launch I think the sellers will start to be outnumbered by buyers. Time is on the longs side as all the catalyst are coming in the next 8 months and this is a SHOW ME stock right now. They need to show a good launch, a good partner scenario for Anchor launch but long investors just need to look at the science, the management experience, the solid sales growth(as 1 analyst stated is tracking other BB drugs) but also realize that acceptance of new drugs takes time and the Anchor market with zero competitors will be the goldmine and rely on an experienced and heavily investment management to team to not mess up and to maximize the value.
They would rather have 30+ by end of 2014 then sell for $20 in 2012 and I agree with them in that position, now they just need to execute. Great drug, great science, and an experienced top management team are on our side. If you believe that is enough that they will evenyurally SHOW WS then just hold on, if you believe they will not be able to PROVE Vascepa is a BB then sell, simple as that but NCE this week not happening is not a big issue. Any reasonable DD at this point leads to NCE eventually being granted but at these prices not sure the downside is huge.
My guess is Wall Street will take that as a bad number however I was afraid it would be a negative number as very little happens on Good Friday regardless of pharmacy being open and some doctors. Also tier 2 kicked in for Medicare April 1, anyone looking to full would wait, I am fine with this number But expect a bigger jump next week and hope it happens but may see new lows this week before NCE decision but also looking at this week as a possible bottom
We know, it is 24 hours to be in stock, do you not do any DD AT ALL, everyone knows that, what a stupid waste of phone calls to learn something everyone knows
Interesting read, Pure EPA was way better in preventing Hemorrhagic stroke and unfortunately the article is missing alot of details, like how much of each pill was taken, and specifically the author states
Acknowledging that "this is an observational study—it doesn't prove cause and effect" makes it seem like the study is not well done and readin the years they started and ONLY usine 3 communities made the population cross section extremely poor. It also seems to indicate any of the 3 is beneficial and, if true, Vascepa REDUCE IT, with a better population should show benefit and it's the only FDA test like it being done so would indicate success is more likely than not BUT may indicate DHA/EPA would be even better. However, such a poorly designed trial since it was NOT a trial not sure we can get anything out of this,
Omthera has priced its IPO shares in the $12 to $14 range, seeking to raise about $75 million to fuel efforts to advance an experimental omega-3 drug.
Omthera plans to list its shares on the Nasdaq under the symbol "OMTH," with bankers from BofA Merrill Lynch, Barclays and Leerink Swann serving as joint bookrunners on the IPO
They also mention filing with FDA in Mid-2013 so....
1) They need to find investors willing to invest
2) By time they can start selling AMRN will be selling Anchor
3) They have worse results than Vascepa and have little hope of ever going fro Anchor population
4) They have better profile than Lovaza but will be more expensive without Tier 2 AND by time they get rolling Lovaza would be generic and Vascepa will have established itself as the market leader.
I'm interested to see if they will even find investors since AMRN strategy to go ahead and launch was not well received I wonder how and inferior drug with less experiences management will entice 75 million dollars out of Wall Street, especially knowing they will need much more than that for any "launch" attempt. Looks like a case of management trying to milk some money to keep getting a payday as I do not see where Omthera can sell their drug. I twill cost more than Lovaza and Vascepa to start and will be the third fish oil type drug for the same market.
If it goes public at 12-14 I'm shorting it.....hopefully with AMRN profits.
It was out yesterday or the day before and you only get a headline if you don't subscribe, it's like a teaser to get you to pay for a subscription. No Buyout before NCE and likely no BO until closer to Anchor launch, may not be one then either but won't be one until at least then.
Basically the attorney they used went to a new firm so they are sticking with the person and not the firm
Perkins Coie LLP added David B. Fournier to its Chicago office as a partner in the intellectual property practice. Fournier was most recently a partner at K&L Gates LLP, where his practice included work with pharmaceutical clients.
According to Options-Monster they were sells and not buys so more likely covered calls, someone buying in with an upside target of 11 and getting a little bonus if it meets their target. it's possible a Short play as they mention but logically makes little sense as upside is onlt the 20 cents and you risk quite a bit.
Here is from OptionsMonster
Shares of Amarin bounced off a 52-week low this morning, but one trader is selling the upside.
The June 11 calls dominate the options trade. Our data systems show that a trader sold 5,000 of those calls for $0.18. The volume is twice the open interest, so this is a new position. The call selling is well out of the money, so it could be done naked with an initial bearish bias.
The naked short call has a negative delta, but can make a profit with shares anywhere below $11 at expiration. (See our Education Section.) It is also possible that the calls were sold against long shares as a covered call. That would be bullish up to the strike, but not beyond.
Amarin stated what the study was for and they have not divulged any info on how they are doing it but that they have a proprietary way so the split over 4 capsules is not from AMRN, they have specifically not answered that type of question. They also worked with the FDA on figuring out how to do it so to say FDA won't approve something that the FDA said was OK to test whatever way they are doing it is pretty interesting inside knowledge. For a doctor to say he wants to choose which statin and not the best drug if the combo is the best drug over all statin you'd have to be a pretty bad doctor to want to give a drug that works less because you have a personal affection for that statin. So it's just all menaingless guesswork and nothing stated there is even remotely related to any current facts with AMR102. We will know more on that in the next 1-2 months but that post seems useless.
AMRN Release on subject:
This study is aimed at expanding the potential commercial application of Vascepa by leveraging the clinical successes of the MARINE and ANCHOR trials, namely effective triglyceride lowering without increasing LDL-C," stated Joseph Zakrzewski, Amarin's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Amarin's goal is to identify ways for patients to simplify their lipid management by developing a single therapy that offers the powerful triglyceride lowering effects of Vascepa combined with one of the most prescribed statin products."
Amarin looks forward to analyzing the results from this study and expects to communicate such results in the first half of 2013.
We have no idea what sales are, based on script data(which is under reported) and expected Anchor sales you look at 2014 as minimum 400 million in sales if the current script trend continues as you will be at minimum 100 million Marine sales in 2014 even at at this pace of scripts(conservative) and conservative Lovaza Anchor sales are 300 million which will 100% convert to Vascepa in 2014 since it will cost 3-5 times as much for Lovaza.
WS thinks IMS reported scripts are low, WS knows like everyone else the company will need to raise money for Anchor launch, couple that with a growing short interest so stock is down. But just based on current script growth and current Lovaza sales in Anchor 2014 sales estimates by analysts are 300 million which look like they can easily beat, of course, we need to know how the Anchor launch will go down to know if any of those sales go to a partner and what AMRN gets from the partner or if they will borrow and hire a third party sales force.
There is not one single article out about sales that is written by anyone that has any idea whats ales are. The one Leerink analyst stated sales are on target.
However, anyway you look at it, it seems to be potential 2014 sales, base don very limited launch #'s
The only thing you can argue with is "rapidly" as there is more than science when it comes to which drugs are prescribed (Cost, time to educate etc...). I think the pace of taking sales is where WS is giving pause here but otherwise you are 100% correct.