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NVIDIA Corporation Message Board

kvimax1 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 9, 2014 1:16 PM Member since: Feb 1, 2001
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  • This may very well be the day that the bulls don't relent, and we start to see more of the shorts capitulate. The volume and the reversal from the attempt to force some profit-taking, this morning, are putting a lot of pressure on those that have had their way for 3 years.

    We've seen the bulls take a block of over 80k shares at 19, then more large blocks above it, and 2 failed attempts to take it back below 19....twice it's gone to 18.99 and gone right back over 19. I wouldn't be surprised by another few shots from the shorts, and maybe even flirt with 18.90 or so, again, but not likely below 18.97.

    The final hour is when the BIG boys and girls make their real final decisions, so with this kind of volume, now, we could be looking at 5+mm shares traded the last hour and the last 10 minutes will be key. If we close over 19, or at another new multi-year high, I think we'll see some kind of news come out in the next few days that is "real" and that will propel the stock over 20.

    If not today, we're going to see another quick 10-20% rise whenever the next news hits, and it could take until the earnings and guidance, but I'm doubting that. I think we're at the breaking point after moving sideways for a few months....we're headed higher.

    Enjoy the heavyweight bout in that final hour. Should be interesting, regardless of the outcome.
    Best,
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    In the Red almost 1.5%.....WHY?

    by jungalwillie Mar 6, 2014 1:41 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Mar 6, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    That's exactly what it looks like to me, too. One or two shorts working to keep it down and try to shake out weak holders and try to get the technicals to deteriorate further. I don't see it staying this way beyond the last hour or tomorrow.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Between now and Friday...

    by kvimax1 Mar 3, 2014 12:59 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Mar 3, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    What e2cn2y said is exactly the point. The prior read of the Short Interest was reported on 2/14, AFTER there had been 3 straight days of over 20+mm shares, and it was 58+mm shares then. And, in the last few weeks there haven't been any days with anywhere near that kind of volume, and yet the latest report, in Barron's, shows it went up by 750k shares.

    So, given the failed Bear Raid, this morning, and given that they are presenting at 2 Tech Conferences (today and Thursday), and given that the "overbought" nature of the stock has been completely worked off, and other than Putin starting WWIII, the stock is ready to rise, again, and those nearly 60mm shares will need to be covered, and I think it will be like rocket-fuel.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You will witness one of the great short squeezes of all time. The Bear Raid that they attempted along with the Ukraine news, did NOT work, and the Pros all know it. They also know that the Short Interest went UP between 1/31 and 2/14 and stood at over 59mm shares at that time.

    Given that NVDA is presenting at 2 Tech Conferences this week, including one at the close, today, and given that they could NOT get the stock down and keep it down, well...just enjoy it. We should be well over 19 and looking at 20.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If the shorts can't band together and start a Bear Raid, soon, then I think we will se a late day spike to new highs, and possibly break thru 18. They must be getting pretty nervous since the stock refuses to go down more than a few pennies before someone comes in and buys it back up.

    I do expect to see huge blocks of 50k-100k put in the way every penny over 17.94 or so to try to block any rise, but when they tried that, Friday, they wasted a lot of ammo.

    The last hour, especially the last 30-40 minutes should prove interesting.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • On the NVDA Yahoo Finance Page, there's a new article that came out, tonight, that mentions NVDA not once, but twice, in an article that focuses on the companies that are increasing REVENUES in this environment. One mention would be nice, but take a look....NVDA is mentioned TWICE.

    The shorts in this stock didn't sleep a minute, since Friday. Now this.

    They'll try a few more times to engender some selling, whether with some analyst now downgrading the stock because "it met our price target", which might get 1-3% in profit taking, or a reversal in the overall market. But other than that, and barring a market crash, this stock is likely to see 20 before seeing 16, again.

    Tomorrow could be another fun day.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One more thing....

    by kvimax1 Feb 14, 2014 11:41 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 15, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Well, in the long run, it might be possible, but I think that would take a lot of IP licensing contracts on top of them becoming dominant in Mobile Computing.

    Best,
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Technical targets for NVDA

    by ibexx Feb 14, 2014 3:22 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 15, 2014 12:25 AM Flag

    Yes, Ibexx. I think it's the one I'm going to try to copy and paste, below. What's "new" is the verbiage that mentions a "triple top breakout February 12th"...That day was pivotal, and more importantly the follow-through, yesterday and today, with similar volume, is a clear, LONG TERM, change of trend.

    I think 20-24 is quite likely in the next month or two.

    As always....we'll know in the fullness of time...;)
    Best,
    Max

    P.S. Darn....I couldn't copy and paste it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This may sound simplistic, but since I WAS a professional trader, and started in the business over 36 years ago, I want to pass on this basic principle.

    While it's very difficult for MOST people to "cut their losses in a losing trade/investment", it's MUCH HARDER to "let your winners run". Truly it is.

    It's MUCH harder to stay with a winner, but that's how the real fortunes are made. Look at Warren.

    I have rarely felt as strongly about a company's future than I do about NVDA, now....other than when I first saw JenHsun on "Power Lunch", in October of 1999. He looked like the "cat that swallowed the canary", and I bought the stock right after the interview. Within a month, they announced the first "XBox" contract, and the stock went from 22 to 270 or so. It has split about 12 for 1 since I bought it...It put my son through college.

    This is just as powerful a moment. I think this stock will see All-Time highs within the next year or two. That would be in the high 30s. In the long run, I think it can be a 40-50 Billion dollar company....maybe larger.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Panic should begin shortly.

    by kvimax1 Feb 14, 2014 10:27 AM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 14, 2014 11:07 PM Flag

    Schmenkle321....Thanks. A wise man once said: "Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional acorn!" I've been fooled a bunch of times over the last 6-9 months, but I have NO doubt that this is the REAL thing.

    The volume speaks volumes....volume=validity to professional traders. And, for anyone that REALLY wants to see how CLEAR this is...just go to anyplace you can put up a chart, and look at a 3 YEAR chart...and then change it to a "weekly" chart rather than a daily one.

    You can check back a few months with some of my posts to MSLans, who seems to have vanished, but I told him "that as hard as it has been to get through 15, and stay there, that in the longer term the REAL "wall" was at 16."

    And, if you look at the chart I'm talking about, you can see that 16 or so had been a "ceiling" all the way back to June of 2011....And that was after it had gone from 14 and change, 1/1/11, to over 26, in 2-4 weeks. Then, Samsung pulled a rumored 250mm dollar deal, and the pundits started the "they can't compete" mantra, and the stock fell back to 16 and bounced between there and 20 for a month or two and then fell thru 16 and hasn't closed over that for more than a FEW DAYS in almost 3 years.

    When a stock has this long of a stretch below a certain level, and then goes thru there and keeps on truckin', well...with THIS volume? I don't profess to believe in "technical analysis", but having been a professional, I learned that you MUST keep it in mind, since so many people DO believe in it that it can simply be "self-fulfilling". But....when a stock has spent this much time going "sideways" and then breaks out of that pattern....either up OR down....the following move is likely to be VERY long and equally as dramatic to the upside, in a case like this one.

    Just look at the chart.

    18-20 will be modest resistance, but if we get ONE design win, ONE IP Licensing Deal, or ONE "real" piece of news...oh...we got one, today....1/2Billion to GS, next Thursday.

    What fun.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The shorts will be in full-fledged panic mode, any moment. Should see several spikes higher, and may hit r break through 18.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As I had expected, some of the shorts realized that they weren't going to get it back below 17, or even 17.10 for that matter, this afternoon, and you cold see the giant blocks being gobbled up at any price from 3:20-4PM. At 3:20, volume was 18.775mm shares and the stock was 17.14 bid. By 4PM, the stock was at the high of the afternoon, at 17.36 with 22.432mm shares!

    I just saw someone coming in and buying at 17.40, AH, and you can bet that MOST of the shorts will NOT be sleeping, tonight...;)

    Couldn't happen to a more deserving lot. And, it's JUST the beginning!
    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    All shorts are underwater. Period.

    by eir951 Feb 13, 2014 12:50 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 13, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    Yes, and that's what I was mentioning, last night. Other than a few that caught the earlier high, every single short for the last 2 1/2 years is now under water.

    And, as it becomes clearer and clearer that they CAN'T get it back down and keep it there, and we grind steadily higher, at some point, whether its' today, tomorrow or next week, the "leap frog" buying will come to the fore as they scramble to cover at any price.

    I'd guess that once GS Tech Conference starts, at 1:20EST, there will be even more pressure to cover. And, even though a bunch of the bearish analysts "sort of" upgraded the stock and raised their target prices, they are still negative, overall, and that leaves a LOT of them with no other choice than to capitulate further and raise their targets even further as the stock approaches 20.

    If we do see the stock climb back near this morning's high, then we'll likely see more capitulation by the fools who actually believed that NVDA would be failing because of the weakness in the PC business. WRONG.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Enjoy the ride!
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 12, 2014 11:13 PM Flag

    Good. Wall St. fortunes are made on the inexperienced, novice people like you. You are WAY out of your league, here....I have been in this for 36 years.

    Now you can join the other clueless folks in the Ignore File.

  • Reply to

    Boom!!!

    by nvdarocks Feb 12, 2014 7:48 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 12, 2014 10:44 PM Flag

    VERY astute observation! One of the biggest "tells" is how many analysts say "congrats" or "nice quarter". There were at least 5-6 who said that and that is the MOST that have done so in 3-4 YEARS.

    Tomorrow is going to be SO much FUN!!!
    M

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 12, 2014 10:37 PM Flag

    Go ahead and short the stock then. You have NO IDEA what's about to happen! See you at 18+ tomorrow!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That NO one who has shorted THIS stock in the last 2+ years is sitting with a profit. NO ONE. The lack of volume from when the CC started tells me that the BIG players are praying that someone will say something negative, tomorrow morning, to keep the stock from exploding higher. Good luck with that.

    I would expect we'll see volume at least as large as today's, and the stock will be higher than it is at this point....meaning, well above 17.35.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Best,
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NVDA up 2.55% on half a million shares

    by ibexx Feb 12, 2014 4:57 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 12, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    Yes...they'll be playing "leap frog"....;)
    M

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 12, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Hey, Ibexx. Did you see the balance sheet??? They have 4.6BILLION in CASH! That's almost 1/2 the market cap, and even if you strip out the debt, they are looking more and more like a cash MACHINE!

    The "real action" will commence with the CC...7 minutes, and I can't wait!
    Best,
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is Driving This?

    by j7777kxx Feb 12, 2014 2:27 PM
    kvimax1 kvimax1 Feb 12, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    It's been a winning game to be short this stock for almost 3 years. Today's high is the highest price since somewhere around mid-2011. If they don't break the stock back down, today, or AH or tomorrow, then the short covering will be furious. They've been selling calls short with impunity, too.

    But, the stock hasn't closed at this level in over 2 years and there will be shorts adding to their positions, here, as others are covering. The spike from 16.40-77 was at least ONE big short getting nervous.....really nervous. With average volume, it would take 9-10 days to cover, but I think we'll see volume 2-4 times normal for awhile.

    The earnings and guidance will likely dictate the immediate reaction in AH trading, but it's the CC at 5-6 that will be the tell. Almost no analysts left to downgrade and a lot with nothing left to do but upgrade.

    Someone has dumped 1 1/2mm shares on the stock since it hit the high, but it will take a lot more reverse this completely. If we're in the 17+ range tomorrow, we're going much higher than that. I also believe they're presenting at another Tech Conference, tomorrow.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.
    Max

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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