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Astex Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

l0410z 80 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Mar 8, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by jameshwalker99 19 hours ago

    The call (not the results) I give an A+,

    This is the first call that the executive team were crisp on the information and answers. They showed confidence in what they are doing and answered questions with a passion not heard before. .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    48k tests for q2

    by macacosabio 18 hours ago

    if you listen to the call, they said more than 48K tests for 2nd Q

  • You have never been in sales have you....marketing is awareness and brand but doesn't sell anything. Now is the time to add sales people based on where insurance agreements have been reached. You can't cut costs to prosperity. That is a strategy for a dying company not a growing one.

    I was in IBM for 30 years and managed a large sales team for a large part. IBM has great marketing and well respected brand awareness. That and a metro card will get you on a subway.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Beats Expection on Revenue and Has Narrower Loss

    by a2zkid11 May 3, 2016 5:51 AM

    Compliance is 12 month running total stopped 60 days prior to March 31st. The full seasonality of 4th Q impacted compliance. It should have gone done and not a reason for concern given the 4th Q results. iF IT DOESN'T IMPOROVE 2ND AND 3RD Q IT IS.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Beats Expection on Revenue and Has Narrower Loss

    by a2zkid11 May 3, 2016 5:51 AM

    4th Q had many tests sent out and not returned. This drove down compliance in 4th Q but also has impact on 1st Q. Also I believe compliance is a yearly number and not Q by Q. If this is the case and you believe seasonality (which I do), 4th Q and 1st Q (2016) would drive that number down. I would expect that number to increase 2nd and 3rd Q 2016. Also since EXAS has an outbound program to help with compliance, as tests increase, they may need to bring more people on board (depending on the expected return).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Be Positive

    by mcshanecammon May 2, 2016 4:48 PM
    l0410z l0410z May 2, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    ignore my post.. you are worse than an annoying long/short... you are one of those. Do you enjoy what you do?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Be Positive

    by mcshanecammon May 2, 2016 4:48 PM
    l0410z l0410z May 2, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    Being long and creating id's is just as bad and annoying as being short and creating id's. Thanks for you thoughts created May 2nd 2016

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Hold at 7...8 soon

    by jameshwalker99 May 2, 2016 3:03 PM
    l0410z l0410z May 2, 2016 4:08 PM Flag

    The expectation is the USPSTF has not and will not change their minds. EXAS has stated this. It is exactly the approach they have to take and plan for,

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    An Alternative to Atlantic City

    by l0410z May 2, 2016 11:30 AM
    l0410z l0410z May 2, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    The options aren't adding to my position per say. I will be out before execution at a value or 0. I have all the shares I can handle. I am also not concerned about pre market trading at announcement. We have all seen it go up on release pre market only to fall once the call begins because of what is said on the call.

    The USPSTF decision is known and EXAS has reiterated a few times the group doesn't change their minds.

    I believe EXAS will address some of the uncertainty during the call. If I am wrong the cost of the 40 options are a rounding error to my position. This position is in it for the long run or until the reasons I invested do not exist.

    Said it many times on this board... do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Every now and than it is worth it to take a gamble as long as you can afford the loss. I believe that the focus on the 1st Q numbers is not near as important as the confidence in reaching and/or exceeding FY numbers. To that end game EXAS has done a lot with building a sales team and advertising. I believe it has been helped by March being Colon Cancer Awareness month. Much of this will have no impact on 1st Q numbers but will l on FY. Also, progress with other insures coming on board as well as the suit against (I forgot who) or not paying are minor wild cards. I Took a little gamble on the March 20th 8 calls. Purchased 40 of them early this AM. If i am right.8 is not an issue. If I am wrong, neither is the cost.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    any number over 40k

    by busygoth Apr 28, 2016 7:09 AM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 28, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    Guidance is the most important aspect of next weeks call. Tests must be 2400000 and revenue at least 90 to 100 m as states. Many people were unsure of even these numbers so this needs to be a lock no matter what we come in at (within reason). 10 percent growth over 4th would be nice....I am going with 42k tests and raising guidance for total tests and revenue.

    Reason for upward guidance......March was colon cancer month, TV commercials/print ads and news story in a number of geos. Gut feel

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Will EXAS pull an APPL next week?

    by escalade_trout_pout Apr 26, 2016 8:57 PM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 26, 2016 11:40 PM Flag

    You really think EXAS will have a 500 Billion market cap by next week....thanks for the advice...think I will sell puts and buy calls.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I know someone on the drug and the family believe it works. I pray they are right. I have shorted stocks before and it is a sound strategy and not personal until it becomes personal. This is the reason I never short biotech. Every failed study or non approved drug destroys hope for those who need it most.

    There are a large number of families that believe it has helped. I am not sure what the harm would be approving this and requiring monitoring to support the benefits. I might go long the stock at some point because I find it hard to believe on a close vote, the fad will not approve.

  • l0410z l0410z Apr 26, 2016 3:10 AM Flag

    Wow, this wealth of experience form an ID created less than 10 months ago. Maybe you can answer the question why often the people who try to convey knowledge have frequently created IDs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally found the shorties !!!!

    by m.propp Apr 21, 2016 6:50 AM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 21, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    I also have been around this stock for a while (since 2004) but took a break when I sold to help fund college. Jumped back in after the steep decline. I see plenty of reason to avoid the stock.... be long the stock but little reason to short at these levels. What do I know... thanks for your thoughts.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally found the shorties !!!!

    by m.propp Apr 21, 2016 6:50 AM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 21, 2016 8:39 AM Flag

    50 years of market experience with an ID that is less than a month old. I guess with all your experience you can understand why this seems a little odd.

    Please share with us why you are buying shares so we can tap into a century of knowledge. Thanks in advance.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Estimate of TV ad's impact on 2016Q1 sales

    by sstephanc Apr 19, 2016 9:58 AM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 19, 2016 12:18 PM Flag

    If you were designing a test market for a TV ad. Would you design it where your success was so small that any increase would be a high percent but an insignificant number or would you design it around a successful area where you can see the real impact. Humor me and let us think EXAS is smart enough to go with the second choice. I used an example of 10%. I do not think it is unreasonable to get 10% of your tests from s small number of cities.
    Have you looked at and followed where EXAS is hiring sales people. Would you guess it is from major metro areas or all across the general population. You have more doctors in Atlanta than a number of states combined (depending on the GEO). Also do you not think EXAS would look pretty stupid during the earning conference call stating... our ads were very successful... we increased 300 percent going from 1 to 3 people. BTW, it only cost us 600K to do this.

    When I posted the 80/20 rule if you do the math of what I layed out, you can see I know what the rule means. I also stated I do not believe it. Again it is an example.

    Bottom line, during the call, EXAS better be able to extrapolate what they believe they can drive with ads this year. The only way to do that is with meaningful numbers not percents of low meaningless numbers.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Estimate of TV ad's impact on 2016Q1 sales

    by sstephanc Apr 19, 2016 9:58 AM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 19, 2016 10:44 AM Flag

    I believe the TV adds had a greater impact than you think in first Q. The real issue is an educated guess is impossible unless you know the number of tests that these markets contribute to EXAS . Let me give you an example.... lets say Cologuard did 24000 tests in 4th Q. you would think that the test market would be areas of success with insurance companies that contributed to the highest number of test in 4th Q. Let us assume these markets contributed 10% in 4th Q. The increase would be 1200 tests. If we apply the 80/20 rule, these markets contributed 80% of the tests so the increase would be 9,000 (24000*.80*.50). Do I really believe 9,000 more tests... no but the logic is closer to the truth than using a percent or population that has nothing to do with coverage.

    Personally, I think EXAS would be silly to post a 50% increase on there website if all they got were a couple of hundred new tests. I would test the adds where I already had success to see a meaning full increase. Marketing dollars are valuable and I woould be disappointed to waste marketing funds in a area that would only get a few hundred more tests.

    I think the reason for the current strength is the success in driving successful numbers (increase tests and doctors) from Colon Cancer Screening Month (March) and the ads.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy Puts Now

    by reginayoshikawa3 Apr 18, 2016 2:32 PM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 18, 2016 4:01 PM Flag

    who were you yesterday before you created your idea today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    comercial

    by dann1500 Apr 11, 2016 12:50 PM
    l0410z l0410z Apr 18, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    I think it is great that the commercials are airing and based on the April presentation on the investors website, the commercials are driving both tests and physician participation. This is all great but to keep this moving we need to hear more about exceeding 240K tests.

    Sentiment: Buy