CVRR suspended dividend last quarter, I don't think there is much more downside from there....As for UAN wow how consensus changes from a clear cut $22 stock to selling before earnings. Personally I think you made the wrong decision, you forfeit big upside to save a $1 a share downside.....in all likely hood it doesn't swing more than 0.5 either way but best of luck to you either way
I doubled down today. Long term I like my investment.....I can't imagine it keeps going lower (or maybe I just don't want to imagine it)
Just like you predicted +$20 pps by end of year and I was ridiculed for saying it won't pass $15 and it will head down lower after they announce quarter 3. Its the same trend as last shutdown. Sure we had some unexpected #$%$ happen in between but you were way off on your estimates
The quarter as a whole it went down 20%.....that's pretty big downside....especially when you consider the DOW and S&P being flat
If I traded, thats what I would do. Look at between January 21st and Febuary 18th 2013. We saw a 13% drop over expected news.
"As far as investors knowing about the variable distributions, and potential for shut downs (planned or due to accident), I have to believe 95% of the investors who found this LP in the first place understand the nature of it and teh fact that the yield this LP is delivering is compensating them for that risk."
Fact is historically that is not the case and that is what I have been trying to tell you. I'm more than thrilled at the days change and divy announcement but until Q3 and their scheduled down time is over my expectations are quelled.
I think we see a repeat of last quarter's dividend. I still think you are way off base with your end of year consensus....even if there is a short term bounce in share price you can fully expect everyone to be negative on UAN once they learn that the scheduled downtime (although scheduled) results in a 1 time reduced dividend. If memory serves me correctly it was a 0.19 dividend quarter, and back then they were paying out more per year than they are now.
I'm a little too heavy in energy right now, but ARLP is looking pretty attractive. Another couple I've been keeping my eyes on are PCL and HCN. Both REITs but less of the typically AGNC/NLY/MTGE variety
I'll terribly rehash a quote by peter theil;
When you buy a tech stock you aren't buying their current valuation, you're buying what they can become and this merger has greatly increased what they can become in the future. Quit looking at quarter to quarter and think long term.
again gravely misquoted but you get the idea of what he is saying.
Hence the comparison, I think thats just the way he operates his companies.....If there is down time he'll tell you in the quarterly report....Seems like malpractice to me but I'm a rookie in this regard. Regardless I still think this will be good going forward, just another bump in the road
If you follow the history of the company, despite the downtime being well known in advance and scheduled maintenance investors flee every time as if the plant exploded. I can't see how 3rd quarter will be any different. Would I love 20, sure but end of year I think we'd be lucky to get back to 15 level......just my thoughts