My impression was that the quality concern was about the feedstock (i.e. a defective batch of aluminum oxide fed into the reactors resulting in bad yield). A temporary problem, if it even happened at all.
Limited sapphire on iPhone 6, covers found/not found are a secondary issue, a distraction. The main issue here is that Apple and GT have to give us enough information to be confident that all sapphire output will be utilized - long term as well. That won't happen in upcoming ER for obvious reasons. Maybe in the next ER - hopefully. That's another 3 months away.
It's not like, say, today's publication was anything new. It's the same two or three unsubstantiated rumors that are simply repeated. Each time, the market forgets it already sold the stock off on these fears, and the stock drops 5% again. It's almost like Pavlovian conditioning at this point.
Can't explain the volume in $14 puts really. A lot of volume but very little interest is left open.
care to stick to the topic? we were not discussing the "cancer ray" or Matt. Trolling much?
Yea. well you know what else? If revenues come in at $0 for the year, the stock might hit $0.1. How does that relate to reality, can you please explain? Where'd you get the notion that 2014 and 2015 will have "no solar earnings contribution"?
It's a strange assumption that you could monitor the shipments out of this facility unless you do it yourself or hire some kind of surveillance to do it for you. Shipment reports are not publicly available since the plant is operating in a FTZ.
You want to take less execution risk, fine. Though when it's running full capacity and smoothly you're probably not getting back into it at $13s.
The "when" part is specified in the contract.
Regarding the "how" well the plant is supposed to run at a profit. Calculate how much sapphire this plant produces in a year when fully operational, multiply by cost per unit of mass, take 25-28% gross margins on top of that. subtract opex and you should have your answer. Cursory analysis would say they recover their capex costs within ~3-4 years. But nobody knows outside of these two companies knows the exact numbers.
discounted cashflow models would show this is very cheap at $2B, but it's trading there only because there's so much uncertainty over _everything_ they're doing. Meaning it's very hard to quantify the risk. As a consequence of this, big money can move the ticker anywhere it wants at will. Who's really to say if it's worth $8 or $20? frankly we don't know.
he said earnings will be $1.50+ in 2016, he did not guide earnings at 2015 AFAIK. that was in the ER before the last one.
Take a look at analyst estimates again. on yahoo finance, average expectations for yearly revs are currently at $666.80M. There's a certain analyst from PTT with $800M+ expectation and a $87.5 price target. otherwise...not really.
If there were no shorts to cover in the $13s, we would crash right through that and into the $12s. Apparently, there are sellers willing to dump hundred-k-block share blocks with market orders every few hours. why should buyers pay up, if the sellers are acting so paniced? it's pathetic, really.
GTAT's sapphire/* laminates research is done with EVGroup, it seems Apple's research in this area predates this by a couple of years at least based on patents filed. If Apple does decide to go for a sapphire/glass laminate, whatever vendor of glass they (Apple) decide to be best for this purpose is of yet unknown. In any case, their process predates the availability of Hyperion by at least two years.
No idea if GTAT/EVG will initially focus on glass at all, or the other types of laminates; and Corning is just one vendor, not necessarily the best fit for those efforts. Specifically, scratch resistance of the glass material is irrelevant when you're laminating it.
I'm not sold on "irrational behavior" being the root cause of this selloff. It seems like the reverse, i.e. the selloff itself is far more worrying than any news I've heard the last month for sure, so you're seeing some emotional reactions. I'm actually having trouble accepting that a selloff of this size is done on a couple one liner analyst comments with no substantiation. There has to be be something more to it.
They claim they can retrofit existing cell manufacturing processes with it, and that it has a small cost up front, so it's much easier money for them to license/install the tech to existing cell manufacturers. It's a very tough competition out there in cell manufacturing, and it's also capex intensive. GTATs books are leveraged enough, rather see them safely through the Apple related scale-up, before they start another huge manufacturing project.
I chose my wording carefully. What I said there at first was a trivial application of formal logic and seems like it went over your head. Forget it. When I said "mantras", it was in reference to "charts do not lie", which is a truism, a vacuously true statement that you keep repeating over and over again, not sure what it is you are really trying to imply or convince us of. Yes, charts do not lie, they are a recording of historical fact.
I did not claim there would be no disasterous news. I did not challenge any of your claims regarding support levels / possible downside / whatever. Not sure what of all that counts as "pounding my chest" exactly.