One of the analysts did ask them specifically about whether Merlin cells can be flexible enough to be used in automobiles. I don't think they gave a definitive answer to that though. I don't have access to the transcript from the call, maybe I didn't hear what they said quite right.
Financial results pages for companies tend to list the last 4 reported quarters. In GTAT's case that's currently Q1-Q4 2013. That's what i see when I click that EDGAR link anyway. I can't get to those Sep 2012 results you've mentioned.
for all the names you were calling the shorts on this issue, looks like they were right and you were wrong every step of the way.
Tl;Dr obsolete equipment, non-competitive cost structure, kept dumping poly at a loss, good thing it could only do it for so long before bankrupting itself. good riddance.
It might also be the case that the number of Hyperion machines needed to make laminates at the desired rate would be cost prohibitive CapEx-wise at the moment, maybe Apple did its own calculations and decided it would rather go with the full sapphire screen version for now.
was it published what is the production rate and running costs (energy, maintenance) of H4? we already know initial cost per machine is in the ~$2M range at least, so if we had those numbers we could calculate how much CapEx they would need to retool the Mesa facility to produce sapphire laminates, and then what would be the cost of that per device, amortized.
It's not clear if they intend to produce full sapphire screens at first, and then switch to building laminates with Hyperion. I remember TG saying something to the effect of "I wouldn't necessarily make the connection between Apple and the Hyperion" in response to a question from an analyst during the ER/CC three weeks ago. I don't know what to make of it.
It seems glass screens are around 1mm thick, Sapphire could probably be made 0.5mm thick (keep in mind it is about 1.5 times heavier for a given volume), but Sapphire laminate using H4 would be 20um thick, so would only make use of _4%_ as much material per iDevice!
If they are only deploying a huge number of ASF's just until they get the laminate version going, it is not clear what they will do with all the excess capacity once they make the switch. They could use it to undercut every LED sapphire supplier in the world if Apple grants them leave to do it. Aside from that, I don't know.
Well, you have to admit it worked pretty well for him. (understatement of the year that one). But no matter, there should be enough funds that will become very interested in this stock now. If not now, then next year when they hear the 2017 guidance. It is just a matter of holding the stock patiently enough.
Look in page 51 of the presentation.
They're expecting IEC certification in 2H'14. 2015 is when early adapters will start applying this tech in full scale production.
I'll stick to GT's estimations on this.
The really nice thing about Merlin is that unlike HiCz, its viability as future income source doesn't depend on the exact demand and supply curves of polysilicon material. Though as it happens, things aren't looking so bad on that front anymore either.
Market has been historically very cautious not to have this stock run ahead of itself, and credit it only with what GTAT is all but assured to accomplish financially. Only recently has it garnered any real attention from broader public and investors. This is not a high profile tech cult stock like TSLA or FB. Keep in mind, most of the stock here is still bought and sold by institutions, who are looking for "sure bets" or what they perceive as such.
We might get some upgrades into the $20s followed by a moderate increase in pps to maybe $18-19, but I expect no more than that until we get the final numbers on current deals ($330M deal financed, Apple commiting to a certain volume and price), along with announcements of new deals in second half this year.
One other thing, it is clear now that the street is taking TG seriously when it comes to guidances. Should management decide to up guidances for 2016+, which doesn't seem too far fetched given today's presentations, stock and price targets will move accordingly.
I rebought at $16.7 the shares my short calls are giving away at $12.5. Several thousand $ out of pocket on this one, but given what we've heard over the last two months, and today, it should be damn well worth it.
the strange thing is, the 1M block does not show up on either google finance or nasdaq.com. Maybe they are not subscribed to the same set of ECNs that Yahoo finance monitors? It's really strange.
I wrote both puts and calls half a year ago when it seemed the convertible related hedges would force the stock to trade in a range; meanwhile, IV was pretty high back then.
Anyway, getting those shares assigned will have cut my cost basis here by nearly half, down from $4 to $2 and change. I will still have most of my shares. I am not complaining either way.
Not that I think it's necessarily bad to go long calls, mind you. Obviously the leaps may well end up outperforming my shares. But it is too high a % of my overall portfolio to also risk going long calls on it as well, that would be too greedy for my taste.
maybe they can kindly tank it back down to $13 or so, then I could re-buy the shares I am about to lose to those march calls I wrote.
to clarify: "as long as I've been following the stock" means in this case "since June 2012".
This one I am less worried about, it sounds a little far-fetched that doing such a thing will pay off for Apple. For that to happe,n the other company would need to implement GT's technology and processes more cost efficiently than GT can. If nothing else, GT beats them through experience with their own stuff.
And if it doesn't pay off for Apple and only adds risk, why would they do such a thing? Presuming it's not a vendetta against GT or such thing...
Yes, the main problem with it is that the "taint" passes along with the product; i.e. if the customer would like to sell the equipment to somebody else later, it would also be subject to the same restrictions, which makes its resale value lesser; it's hard to quantify this though.
I don't expect the exclusivity restrictions to last indefinitely. I'll go through the documents again and try to find out when it expires. Anyone willing to help us out? TIA.
I can't recall, and I wouldn't trust my own memory on this, since I wasn't looking for that in particular when I read the earlier 10k, a year ago...better check it
Mentioned on Mungee's blog. I took a look at the annual report. Here's what they say under "Liquidity and Capital resources", "Overview", last paragraph:
We believe that our existing cash, customer deposits and prepayment installment proceeds will be sufficient to satisfy working capital requirements, commitments for capital expenditures and other cash requirements for at least the next twelve months. We, however, consistently review strategic opportunities in an effort to find opportunities to improve our products, technologies, operations, overall business and increase shareholder value, these opportunities may include business acquisitions, technology licenses, dividends to shareholders, prepayment of our outstanding convertible notes using cash, accelerated prepayments of outstanding indebtedness and joint ventures. If we were to engage in any of the foregoing, it could require that we utilize a significant amount of our available cash and, as a result, we may be required to increase our outstanding indebtedness or raise additional capital through the sale of equity, debt, convertible notes or a combination thereof, which may not be available on favorable terms, or at all.
I wouldn't read too much into it. Sure they could do it, but it would cost them dearly. Who knows how much CapEx they are going to need in the future? It's a good problem to have, rather see them grow faster than essentially buy back the shares that these convertibles represent.