The PV solar supply chain is a bunch of commodities (poly wafer cell panel module, there are lots of specs and it's complicated but that is the basic gist of it). Those commodities have a supply curve (i.e. put all suppliers of a commodity on a cumulative graph based on capacity and their cash/loaded costs to run their plants) and a demand curve (which is affected by consumer sentiment, public policy, international politics, overall economy, yadda, yadda, yadda)
There are varying levels of oversupply across the chain right now. It is most severe in poly and 2nd most severe in wafers. It was much worse in 2013. The situation has been improving faster than GTAT was expecting at the time.
News can alter the demand or supply curve this year and the effect can propagate to alter market conditions next year, and the rate in which the market churns through remaining oversupply. It's not like stock trading, these processes take months to occur. If China decides to consume more PV commodities domestically today, it will eat up the oversupply faster, or raise prices in other countries or some combination. It may alter decisions by suppliers as to how much CapEx to invest in additional capacity and in upgrading existing equipment. Maybe GTAT will get more orders in 2015 or 2016 than otherwise.
just because they are sitting on a product which I consider potentially valuable, doesn't mean I have to like or trust senior mgmt. There are all kinds of reasons to invest in a company, and different reasons why transparency in a company is lacking. The statement that being so opaque about everything is in the best interest of shareholders, is mostly a conjecture on your part. If you trust mgmt on this, then good for you. Most of the market doesn't, as you can plainly see from the price action. You know the deal being "disappointing" was really just a bad excuse.
you may have made the right move.
Perhaps by the time it becomes plain why this POS is hated so much, it will be already too late to sell, as we'll be well into a death spiral.
In any case, we'll see how it unfolds over the next couple of years. I'm holding my position, but would not advise other people to buy. There isn't enough clarity on too many issues.
Please stop trying to justify those silly fantasy scenarios you pumpers keep coming up with. It reeks of desperation.
No they don't, and that is why paid bashers don't exist, because it doesn't make a real difference. All I'm saying is if it DID matter, all they'd be accomplishing with their posts is to make longs look like idiots and the stock look like an easy short. That is all. Fortunately for us it makes no difference in the real world.
Stop posting lies about the company please. You've been corrected in the past. cba to do it for the n'th time.
board is filled to the brim with useless junk threads like this one. If "paid bashers" was a real thing, that'd be the best way to bash - portray longs as a bunch of delusional idiots by spamming this kind of threads. Sadly, those posts are for real. They are too stupid to realize they're hurting their own cause.
the difference? amzn has astronomical revenue, but never makes a profit. This one on the other hand, has no revenue and only losses. The only thing this company ever sold was common shares. As you can see, they're quite good at it.
In other words, the quality of the BP partner acts like a force multiplier. You're looking at it wrong, as if "rights to Afrezza" is some kind of asset that has a constant, fixed value that does not depend on the BP and its inclination and ability to sell it.
Suppose Sanofi can sell say $20B worth of Afrezza total in the next decade, and there's another hypothetical BP, that could sell only $5B of Afrezza in that time, but would work for free and let MNKD take 100% of the profit. Do you realize MNKD would still be better off going with SNY in this case?
but without Sanofi the revenues MNKD generate from Afrezza would be $0. 100% of $0 = $0
If they went with another BP they would need to agree to similar terms
Royalties, profit sharing or any other scheme, the BP would get the lion's shares of the profit. That's just how it works. Situation is not unique to MNKD.
As I see it, the only slip up that could wreck this stock (if only temporarily) is a large cost overrun at Mesa that's due to
1) an unforeseen technical problem, something they can't work out in another couple of months;
2) HPA (high purity alumina) prices rising sharply due to unprecedented demand,
combined with Apple forcing low ASP's on the finished product, which makes GTAT miss all EPS numbers in the foreseeable future. Even then the company itself will be fine and they will still be growing their revenue base at record speed. The real story here is the boom that they should see in equipment sales at 2015 and beyond.
I could follow such advice and sell at $5 in 2013 when short interest was at record high, ehh, thanks but no thanks.
Actual bearish arguments are simply not convincing right now.
If you want to be taken seriously, please model this company's future cashflow and risks and give an actual argument why you think it is worth $12-13 (or whatever other price target you have in mind).
All assets are overpriced these days. There's nothing unusual about this stock. GTAT is not particularly expensive when compared to tech stocks in general. It's definitely cheap compared to the high fliers in tech. Anyway, If that's your concern you should short the market instead of going after the stock of a good company that's trading at a more or less reasonable price.
it's a cool concept, but a solar cover would not recharge the device fast enough to make a real difference. Not last time I looked at the numbers anyway. If it's generating 5% of the energy the device is consuming while online for example, well, it's still useful for emergencies, but it won't save you the trouble of having to charge it to back to full with an ordinary charger as often as you always would.
I think if they ever managed to build a working ultracapacitor, put one in a mobile device, that'd be nice. You can recharge one of these things in a matter of seconds rather than, say, an hour. You'd actually have to limit the current going into the charger to avoid a potential hazard. That's a real game changer, but it's a very long way away still.
with that said, pure sapphire isn't necessarily the best fit to solve this problem, due to brittleness. Apple might be treating the sapphire and/or laminating it over another substrate. In any case, we'll see how the end result stacks up against GG soon enough.
There goes the short argument that screen cover glass breakage is not even an issue and consumers don't care about it. Another talking point in an endless list of FUD debunked.