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MannKind Corp. Message Board

la_lost_boy 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2015 6:42 PM Member since: Mar 7, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Here is my question

    by la_lost_boy Apr 17, 2015 2:02 PM
    la_lost_boy la_lost_boy Apr 17, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    I would hope those at the top would think that 50% more cash from an offering is part of the bigger picture... Has company given a timeline on NDA with FDA for its lung cancer drug?

  • la_lost_boy by la_lost_boy Apr 17, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    If SNTA knew they had this plethora of conferences where they would be announcing some p3 result, and small bios like this one usually run up into these conferences, why would you do a public offering 3 weeks prior and price it we'll below your 52 week low at the time?
    They could have easily got 50% more per share! thus needing to dilute as heavily as they did..
    Just makes no sense..

  • Reply to

    ESALY has almost doubled so what's up? Buyout

    by dscozilla Mar 24, 2015 1:03 PM
    la_lost_boy la_lost_boy Mar 24, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    I have thought this all along.. They limited reps from the get go, causing slow launch.
    As sales grow and they get closer on smoking cessation as well as BelPhen possibilities, they can buy ARNA now at a steal of $1B market cap and get Belviq along with pipeline on the cheap.
    They could buy arena out at 1.5x and only have to issue under 20 million shares of Eisai stock to fund it.
    They would no linger be held to sharing sales nor nearly $1B in milestone payments.
    The numbers work. Question is at what point do they pull the trigger.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Public offering values GALE at $1.36

    by la_lost_boy Mar 13, 2015 11:19 AM
    la_lost_boy la_lost_boy Mar 14, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    I am sorry, but I have to disagree. What they have done with this offering is they have set it at $1.56, but to sweeten the deal they have to throw in a warrant to get people to buy at that price. Since there are no 5 year options available the best estimator and for ease of approximating value is using 2017 $2 call. I know this is not exact science, so don't get all worked up. So when you offer at $1.56 and you have to throw in a $.20 warrant to make deal happen, you are putting a common value at $1.36.

    If they valued the common at $1.80 they would have priced at $1.80 and not thrown in warrant.

  • Reply to

    Public offering values GALE at $1.36

    by la_lost_boy Mar 13, 2015 11:19 AM
    la_lost_boy la_lost_boy Mar 13, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    I knew this dilution was a long time coming, and last year predicted it some time by end of 2014.
    I even posted about it and was slammed as being a short, when in reality I am long.
    I obviously missed by about 2.5 months, but look at this as a buying opportunity I expected.
    I figure offering values common at $1.36 give or take, so will buy every time we dip below..
    I added a bit this morning, but am content if this is where I end up.
    It will be interesting to see end of day action today and Monday morning open, but I am in this for the long haul.

  • $1.56- warrant value which is about $.20

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