Motleyfool article tries to sound unbiased, but they way underestimate potential and use little snyping jabs throughout the article.
Today's partner piece suggests possible royalty deals and uses ARNA as an example.
Then they give completely inaccurate and deliberately low numbers.
ARNA marketing deal gave ARNA a signing bonus PLUS $65 million upon FDA approval PLUS $20 on delivery of first commercial products upon launch PLUS Up to $1.6 BILLION in milestones AND royalties of 31-36%. AND Esaie is picking up ALL oF the post marketing study costs...
So to suggest MNKD might get $50 mil and 30% is an absolute joke.
Since Afrezza is already approved and has potential for a MUCH larger market.
I would expect nothing less than $50-100 million up front, milestones in the billions and royalties of 40%+.
Let's not forget MNKD spent $1.8 billion getting this drug approved, and they aren't going to sign off the huge potential of this drug for pennies.
If the potential partner carries all the market expenses, ie doctor education, advertising, and distribution + post marketing studies
And leaves MNKD only has to cover production costs, profit margins and income will be astronomical.
MNKD has $10 BILLION in insulin in cold storage..
Plus they have billions of dollars in tax right offs carrying forward.
When Afrezza hits blockbuster status the only thing that will keep this stock down will be a buyout, and considering the amount of money and time that was put into Afrezza and technosphere technology and the amount of raw materials they have in storage, it won't be cheap..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Oh, and let's not forget AFREZA will be the FASTEST ACTING insulin on the market, and has the shortest tail, which will account for significantly lower accounts of hypoglycemia.
Numbers don't lie, and let's face it a better product in many cases...
$245 BILLION market, just 1% market penetration makes this a multi blockbuster.
10% makes this the possibly the best drug EVER.
Technosphere technology applicable to a myriad of other applications..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Many doctors will prescribe MNKD as a first treatment for early diabetics.
Many of these people don't use insulin YET.
So if you add up T1 insulin user conversions + the people that may use Afrezza to supplement current treatments + the 200,000 new diabetics each year, the ramp up is huge.
Just the 200k new diabetics could account for 1/4 BILLION in sales annual compounded yearly.
MNKD has already bought and paid for $10 BILLION In insulin, and they will have tax write offs to offset profits for a couple years, so PROFIT MARGINS WILL BE OFF THE CHARTS.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Beat down for first couple days post approval spike.
Then recovery within a week.
Bet money we see a POSITIVE DAY Thursday or Monday after the holiday, followed by a run
back to test our highs next week.
The bashers are out in force and the shorts leaf by TheStreet (IE Cramer), Adam Fraudstein, MotleyFool, and TheFlyonTheWall will be working overtime to push down to cover them and their short followers.
In a few days the week hands and profit takers wash out, and the investors take over.
Remember this post end of week, and especially next week when we are +15% from our current 10.32.
This is just flat out common sense.. You do the math and see.
Al Mann, the CEO has invested nearly 1 billion dollars of his own money.
With approval and partnerships pending he will do everything he can to protect shareholder value, seeing he is the biggest single shareholder in the world.
I am in at an average cost of $1.94 check previous posts.
I have made all my money back times three approximately and hold on to a ton of free shares... This stock will be bigger than imagined.
People have been shooting insulin via injection for about a half a CENTURY.
MNKD will do for drugs , what the car did to the horse drawn buggy.
Enough with people saying partnership will come Monday...
It may come on A Monday, just not this coming one..
Expect partnership around earnings time in August, or September at latest.
They will say or do anything to try to save their position, and I turn their collective #$%$.
Don't reply to their ALL CAP blatant lies..you only help their cause by giving them a bump.
Bottom line..MNKD is a game changer.
Cash on hand is no problem thru 2015.
Partnership in works, per company comments.
This should take care of cash needs.
Lol..shorts continue to try to target this..so I will bump this to offset their flood of BS
Faster acting, more discrete, and more convenient to boot.
Common sense will win out every time.