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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

lafeet333 49 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: May 13, 2005
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  • It was three years ago last week when the financials were released by amsc following the corporate homicide attempt by Sinovel. The reports came almost a year after the news started coming out that Sinovel had refused shipments. These were the forth qtr and annual reports that were due in Apr/May not late Sept.

    The news was as bad as expected and it knocked the stuffing out of what remained of amsc share price.

    Things were dire three years ago today and they remain dire today, so why haven't the shorts been able to sink amsc?

    I contend that it is because the shorts don't know who they are contending with. What "type" of stock is amsc anyway?

    The answer is easy to see on bigcharts. First you might say it is a green energy company so let's look to see if it looks like a green fund. Compare with FAN, GRID, PWND, ICLN, GEX, PBD, PBW. This is a good time to do the comparison since the amsc financial damage reports were released 3 years ago last week.

    On a 3 years amsc stock price chart compared to any of the funds above there is no correlation. The green investors dumped amsc 3 1/2 years ago and so did the GRID investors it would seem.

    Now take a look at a comparison of amsc with XAU, VGPMX, and FKRCX and you will get a hint at who carries amsc in their portfolios.

    I have continually been ridiculed for making this observation for the last 2 1/2 years between the prices of precious metals and amsc and I will be ridiculed again today no doubt for making a deal about what is certainly a coincidence of the charts but just in case it is a valid correspondence look at what Zacks is saying;

    ......Below we will share with you 3 top rated precious metals mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) as we expect the fund to outperform its peers in the future..........

    The takeaway is that the daily news about amsc has less effect on the share price than does the price of precious metal funds.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    prediction

    by lafeet333 Sep 24, 2014 2:04 PM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 24, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    I am still curious about a possible hts application in the target area of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams which is now under construction at Michigan State. hts wire from SuperPower and amsc was tested during the lead up to the design of this facility. It seems that hts wire stands up very well in the extreme environment of the isotope beam targets area.

    I don't think it would be a substantial quantity but it is an interesting application

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    prediction

    by lafeet333 Sep 24, 2014 2:04 PM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 24, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    I believe you yankeeclipper2012. I don't think Barrygeo has a say either.

    Like from 2006;

    ..................Proceedings of WAMDO Workshop, CERN, April 2006
    HTS IN THE LHC & IN THE LHC UPGRADES
    A. Ballarino CERN, Geneva, Switzerland
    Abstract CERN is a major user of High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) material due to its incorporation in many of the current leads for the LHC project. There are already clear applications for HTS in the earliest upgrade scenarios, and thanks to its acquired expertise in the domain, CERN is well placed to extend the efficient use of these materials.....................
    ...........1. INTRODUCTION CERN is an important player in the field of the application of High Temperature Superconductors (HTS). The use of HTS for the current leads in the LHC is one of the most important industrial applications of this material. By incorporating HTS material the heat conducted into the helium bath is reduced by a factor of ten, and the corresponding power consumption by a factor of three [1]. This saving was not the only benefit. By reducing the cryogenic load, it became reasonable to envisage independent powering of the quadrupole magnets in the matching sections, leading to increased flexibility in the optics of the machine. The HTS industry was also looking for a visible, commercial application of their technology, and the CERN current lead project was vitally important. It can be expected that HTS will play an increasing role in the work of consolidating and upgrading the LHC, and by virtue of its experience, CERN is well placed to take advantage of this emerging technology.................

    Sentiment: Buy

  • lafeet333 by lafeet333 Sep 24, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    Everybody likes a prediction.

    From companiesandmarkets.c__

    ..........The global market for superconducting magnets is expected to total almost US$2.6Bn by 2019
    important strides in healthcare such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Other superconducting technologies on the cusp of commercialization will increase the efficiency with which electricity is produced and used, which will indirectly benefit the environment. In the future, superconducting technologies may be used to predict earthquakes, map the magnetic fields produced by the brain, and produce ultrahigh-performance computers.

    The global market for superconductivity applications was worth nearly $1.8 billion in 2013 and is expected to approach about $2.0 billion in 2014 and nearly $4.2 billion in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% over the next five years.

    The global market for superconducting magnets was worth more than $1.7 billion in 2013 and is expected to reach $1.9 billion in 2014 and nearly $2.6 billion by 2019, a CAGR of 6.1% for the five year period, 2014-2019.

    Superconducting electrical equipment had a market value of $29 billion in 2013 and is expected to reach $38.7 million in 2014 and $1.5 million by 2019, a CAGR of 108%.............

    This article seems to be mainly directed toward the low temperature superconductor market. Clearly there are typos in the last paragraph.
    They probably meant to say $29 Million in 2013 and $1.5 Billion by 2019.

    The last paragraph probably includes the high temperature superconductor market but who knows? Perhaps Barrygeo will be able to caution why a 108% CAGR for non-magnet superconducting equipment is unrealistic over the next 5 year period.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SFCL & REG article

    by lafeet333 Sep 22, 2014 10:37 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 24, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    {Be happy you've got REG, Navy degaussing, and the European boat motor}

    The Poisedon European boat project is over. It was canceled quite a while ago. however you failled to mention that amsc has a fault current limiter in operation (I presume it is operational since the ssen project is in a two year operational shakedown since last spring.

    Surely you recall that amsc and Nexans built the FCL for the AmpaCity project in Essen. They also have that same FCL for sale in the USA.

    I wonder how it is performing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SFCL & REG article

    by lafeet333 Sep 22, 2014 10:37 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 23, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    SuperPower has always used a thinner (and different) substrate material than amsc. It could be assumed that SuperPower has aimed from the start to make high field magnets and other "wound" applications.

    Or it could be said that both companies have targeted several different applications with their wires.

    The idea that amsc is stuck forever with one substrate is not something I would buy into wholeheartedly. I would be surprised if they did.

    For high field magnets specifically, I do believe that SuperPower has been ahead of amsc up until now for a couple of reasons. Their wire is smaller, a better substrate for that application and no less importantly, wire length. SuperPower has been able to produce wire lengths in excess of 1 km for a long time.

    I have yet to hear if amsc can now produce wire lengths in excess of 1 km, but that last time I heard was at least 2 years ago. By now they may have that capability.

    One thing that we do know about amsc production is that for specific wound applications, like Sea Titan, for instance the wire performance objectives are very well known. With amsc new production upgrades that began in 2010 and were presumably completed last year, amsc does now have the capability for produce 2g wire with thick hts layers that meets the specs for a Sea Titan motor.

    Yes, SuperPower is probably ahead in the area of high field magnets and other "high field" applications but definanately not for all motor and generator applications.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • lafeet333 by lafeet333 Sep 22, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    electricity-today May 2013

    digital magazine article about amsc's superconducting fault current limiters and Resilient Electric Grid offerings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The lawsuit is a joke

    by barrygeo Sep 16, 2014 2:48 PM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 18, 2014 8:00 PM Flag

    {Lafeet, I have no desire to be hostile with you.}

    No offence intended tscrutinizer. I apologize. My colloquialisims must have carried a meaning that I had not intended.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    And the commercial arbitration?

    by oraclealex Sep 16, 2014 9:27 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 18, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Thank you Barrygeo

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The lawsuit is a joke

    by barrygeo Sep 16, 2014 2:48 PM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 18, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    {Like y'know, dude?? What's your damage?? Cut me some slack.. I are a graduate from the public school system.. hehehe}

    Yeah, Like, Get out of town bro.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    And the commercial arbitration?

    by oraclealex Sep 16, 2014 9:27 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 17, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    You guys seem to understand the nuances of law better than I do so help me with this;

    Guotong reverse engineered amsc hardware and began deliverinbg them to Sinovel at the same time that Sinovel stole the code and dumped amsc.

    In the contract with amsc, amsc only had the right of first refusal to deliver working hardware to Sinovel. Is there any doubt that the hardware that Guotong delivered was useless without the stolen code from amsc?

    If I am the arbitrator, I contend that all of the hardware delivered to Sinovel is useless and that amsc deserves to be compensated for all of the hardware that Guotong delivered to Sinovel at a 25% margin rate reagardless of the contract language between amsc and Sinovel because amsc was the only alternative to Guotong and Sinovel clearly intended to stay in business after dumping amsc.

    That is my position as an arbitrator.

    All of the Guotong hardware was useless without stolen code.

    The code was stolen. Yes?
    That my friends is my arbitration dilemma,

    and the Sinovel arbitrator says. We don't know yet if the code was stolen and Sinovel was within its rights to provide Guotong with their code and keep up our deliveries of windmills around the world.

    Even from a "royalty" settlement point of view where Guotong (Sinovel) would be obligated to pay amsc royalties you need to know how many units of amsc's business were stolen from amsc by Guotong. If they were stolen at all, which we won't know before the IP decisions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    And the commercial arbitration?

    by oraclealex Sep 16, 2014 9:27 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 17, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    {Well, my thinking is that the using stolen code with future wind turbine deliveries is not material to the commercial arbitration case}

    Perhaps you are correct, but if I were an arbitrator, (from either side at this point), I would be reluctant to finalize a settlement agreement without a decision on cease and desist ruling from the court.

    In my limited understanding, a cease and desist order from the court dating from late 2010, when Sinovel went rouge with Guotong, would alter the commercial arbitration case significantly.

    If amsc wins a cease and desist dating from late "2010?", then we arbitrators asre not just talking about amsc hardware. If amsc wins in court, we are talking about all the Guotong hardware delivered after the break up also.

    Perhaps criminal charges will be brought against Guotong is amsc wins a predated cease and desist

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The lawsuit is a joke

    by barrygeo Sep 16, 2014 2:48 PM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 17, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    I can't say that I agree wholeheartedly with the totality of your analysis but generally speaking I do agree with it and it is reasonable and well presented.

    The main exception that I have is with the use of the latest junk work; "Look."

    The "Look" command has been overused by actors and actresses in movies and TV for several years.

    On a TV show "Look" to start a scene means "Look at me I am the star here" Notice they don't sat "Listen" to command your attention they choose "Look" to command your visual attention. It has been ubiquitous on TV shows and movies for at least a few decades. It is mildly annoying when you become aware of this acting crutch word.

    Even more annoying, is that "Look" has become pervasive recently in the news media. You hear "Look" all the time now in newscasts and increasingly now in personal conversations.

    What does it mean when you instruct Barrygeo to "Look"? You know?

    By the way, I have been annoyed by the overuse of the command "Look" for several years and this is the first time I have ever seen someone "misuse" the work to start a written piece; You know?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    And the commercial arbitration?

    by oraclealex Sep 16, 2014 9:27 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 16, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    If amsc wins the copyright case in court and further if Guotong (and Sinovel) are ordered by the court to cease and desist from using any and all pilfered code.

    The monitary sums that amsc is asking for in both IP cases are not large but they carry a cease and desist demand.

    How would that come about? The cease and desist I mean.

    It would still be a sticky mess aside from the hardware that Sinovel received from Guotong when they refused to take amsc hardware.

    Obviously all of the hardware that Guotong delivered for the year or two after the sneak attack used amsc lvrt code.

    We know that the stolen code was delivered to Massachusetts sparking the US lawsuit.

    What about the thousands of units delivered within China since the break? What about the 3 MW machines? Same code? What about the Turkey deliveries still underway from Guotong and Sinovel?

    If Sinovel had not signed a multiyear $400 Million contract with amsc just before they stabbed them in the back it would have been a lot easier to unravel as well. Now the negotiators have to determine whether or not a "cease and desist", if amsc were to win, would pertain to all of the hardware code in the abandoned contract or just the hardware that Sinovel refused to accept from the older contract.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • lafeet333 by lafeet333 Sep 16, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    Is amsc a green energy company?
    The answer is yes and no.

    amsc's green credentials are impeccable but green investors want nothing to do with it.

    On Bigcharts you can compare the green funds PBW, ICLN, PWND, FAN, PZD, QCLN with amsc. Use a three year chart.

    Use the three year chart because one week from today, three years ago is the anniversary of the way overdo financial fallout from the Sinovel attack. That is when the details of the damage was revealed to the investment community.

    amsc may have been widely held by green funds before September 23, 2011 not not so much afterwards. On that date amsc turned to gold and that is why the shorts have not killed the company yet.

    Today you can clearly see that amsc does not track any of the major green etfs or funds using Bigcharts.

    Late next week compare amsc with XAU on the three year chart and then tell me whether you think amsc is "green" or "gold". You may say it is "copper" too but gold sounds better.

    I am not predicting that XAU and amsc charts will always stick together. I am only pointing out that during these past three turbulent, scary, and troubling years for amsc, it has not performed very much differently than the fund that carries precious metal mines, dating from September 24, 2011.

    My takeaway from this simple observation of charts is that green investors are not interested in investing in amsc. They bailed three years ago and have not been seen except for amdtriplexxx.. a while back.

    My other takeaway is that precious metal investors follow the stock price and pick it up when the price is attractive. It seems to me that they have been pretty consistent over the last three year period starting next Wednesday.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    And the commercial arbitration?

    by oraclealex Sep 16, 2014 9:27 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 16, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    If Sinovel were to win in court over trade secrets and copyright infringement, there would be a lot less to haggle about in arbitration.

    If amsc wins in court over those two issues however there will be a lot to sort out in arbitration because of the cease and desist issue.

    amsc has no contract with Guotong Electric Co Ltd which is probably the reason amsc won the jurisdictional court decision which separates the IP issues from arbitration. amsc has nothing to arbitrate with Guotong because they have no contract with Guotong.

    On the other hand, the IP cases carry a cease and desist which would significantly complicate the arbitration case if amsc were to win in court.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Grand Jury Indictment

    by mullent23 Sep 15, 2014 8:45 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 15, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    {Is all this US legal action just to stimulate the Chinese court to move? }

    It was a rather blatant lunge by Sinovel to use stolen code in the USA. amsc's US court case was a parry of this Sinovel attack.

    The court case in China is one front of this IP battle. The other front is the world marketplace. A few countries have stayed approval of Sinovel sales in their countries in deference to the amsc lawsuits in Chinese. Some like Turkey have welcomed Sinovel with their stolen goods.

    Sinovel hopes to sell their stolen code in as many countries as possible therefore making the Chinese cases moot to a great degree.

    I think that when the Sinovel sales were made inside the USA, amsc and Sinovel were still on good terms but by the time deliveries took place, Sinovel had already launched their sneak attack on amsc

    If amsc had not been watching and caught the Sinovel trick with the stolen code in windmills delivered to Massachusetts and gone after them in US courts it would have been game over.

    My question is: What about Turkey? amsc had a client in Turkey marketing Windtec turbines four years ago. Since then, that client, "Model Enerji" has gone out of business with no sales, whereas Sinovel has won 5% of Turkey's future wind business and growing.

    What has amsc done in Turkey tofight this sale of stolen goods? Where is our State department on Turkey's complicit involvement in IP theft?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sinovel settlement prediction...

    by eriktrade1 Sep 12, 2014 9:56 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 15, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Tea Party included?
    You know the ones the IRS has targeted for demanding fiscal responsibility in DC as their primary reason for organizing?

    You are correct that the 60's radical communist sympathizers have become the free spending democrat party that is in power today; Spending like drunken sailors and enslaving the next generations.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sinovel settlement prediction...

    by eriktrade1 Sep 12, 2014 9:56 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 12, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    Turkey is backing Sinovel with their stolen code. Meanwhile, they provide aid and comfort to radical jihadists in Syria, Iraq and Israel.

    The court case in China will have to succeed on it's own merits according to Chinese law. Our NATO ally has no regard for IP and they have no interest in fighting ISIL Does that make us dupes in Turkey? or what?

    Breaking: TURKEY REFUSES OBAMA REQUEST to Use Its Airbases to Fight ISIS

    Posted by Jim Hoft on Thursday, September 11, 2014, 10:17 AM

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sinovel settlement prediction...

    by eriktrade1 Sep 12, 2014 9:56 AM
    lafeet333 lafeet333 Sep 12, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Meanwhile, Sinovel is doing a great business in Turkey today. A supposed ally and NATO member.

    Sentiment: Buy

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