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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

lagunadan92677 63 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Sep 28, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Some serious volume today

    by riderlessbeast Nov 21, 2014 1:29 PM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 22 hours ago Flag

    The majority of bad reviews were based upon Mockingjay being split into two movies and not about MJ1's storyline or about J Law's acting.

  • MJ1 being shown on 7 of 20 screens at my local theater. I worked a late shift and was off at 10PM. I decided to check out the 10:45PM showing, the last showing of the night, of MJ1. It looked like about 150 people with the theater being almost half full. The audience was mostly in their teens and twenties with a few scattered older adults. Lots of audience reaction during the movie which made the movie even more enjoyable. Comments made throughout the movie were all positive. One sudden scare scene had the girls shrieking. The ending had many cheering.

    I was a little nervous with Thursday night's box office @ $17M, but now feel reassured after watching the movie and seeing the audience's reaction. There could still be hope for the complete weekend. The movie is gripping, emotional and J. Law is at her best. Too bad movies like this don't usually get Oscar nominations. Even though this was the first half of a two-parter, the movie ended in decent fashion. My score: 5 out of 5.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    typical HG sell the news 5% decline...

    by esherwood77 Nov 21, 2014 12:34 PM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 21, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Not so typical this time around. At $17M, we missed $19.7M & $25M for the first two Hunger Games movies.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lagunadan92677 by lagunadan92677 Nov 21, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    We need a strong weekend to overcome Thursday's weakness:

    "Friday AM Update: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 1 opened to an estimated $17 million on Thursday night. While that's easily the biggest Thursday night debut of the year so far, it is significantly lower than Catching Fire's $25 million opening on the same weekend last year.

    It's also off from the first Hunger Games movie, which took in $19.7 million from midnight-only showings back in 2012. This is a concerning statistic—with showtimes starting at 8 p.m., Mockingjay absolutely should have earned more than this.

    Overall, the $17 million debut ranks 13th all-time for Thursday/midnight launches.

    If Mockingjay follows Catching Fire's pattern from here, it will end the weekend with $106 million. That would be a stunning drop; for now, let's assume that fans simply decided to wait to see the movie on Friday or Saturday. Even with that assumption, though, this late night debut essentially rules out a $150 million weekend."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • FX previously announced that the 100th show will be the series finale. A.M. is already being syndicated around the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 21, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    John, I'm just trying to keep it real. I gave my opinion and stated as such. You gave your opinion but stated it as fact, ("wall street will give us a hostile takeover premium"). I simply stated that there could be more than one outcome should BABA take a stake in LGF.

    In any case, I trust Jon & Michael (and Mark) to make the right decision.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 21, 2014 4:52 AM Flag

    Who would BABA outbid? If BABA buys a stake in LGF, whether 12% or 37%, no one else would bother making an offer. Why would they? Also, we're currently not receiving any friendly takeover offers, let alone a hostile one. Sure, there could be benefits if BABA takes a small stake, but an LGF takeover would probably not be one of them (Assuming it's not a perfect world).

    I've seen several interviews with Jack Ma. The guy is obsessed with movies. With the current work relationship between BABA & LGF, LGF is already high profile in Ma's life. If he's serious about buying an entertainment company, I would expect him to make a serious offer. If he doesn't, I'm doubtful that he ever will.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 20, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    " last night Burns touched on the possibility of Baba only buying a piece of marks 37% stake on cnbc. This makes more sense to me as management at this point doesnt want to give up controlling interest in the company and Mark would still want some skin in the game."

    When The New York Post broke the story about negotiations between Alibaba and Mark R. I had mixed feelings. Some people on this board, including myself, have been hopeful for a buyout and Alibaba certainly has the money and at least some interest. But, what if Alibaba is satisfied with 37% and has no intention of buying the company? That would prove to be a gorilla on the backs of Jon & Michael as they solicit offers.

    Buying a much smaller piece of LGF could be less of a burden to LGF management. My preference regarding Alibaba is either buy the company or buy nothing at all. We already have a great streaming deal with them. As far as I'm concerned, there's only one more thing that they can do for us. Going forward, there are too many companies that could be possible suitors for LGF. We don't need a gorilla on our backs. That's my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 20, 2014 6:01 AM Flag

    I asked them about the longer, 1-year pattern and they did not agree that it was a valid pattern. On the other hand, 2 different technicians had validated the shorter pattern and target.

  • Normally, questions are answered verbally during the Daily Market Commentary (Scottrade). This was an unusual written response:

    "Dan, sorry for the late response, but the timing still looks good.
    I agree with your identification of the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on LGF. The pattern was completed on Monday when the price closed above the neckline at $34. Since that time, the stock has dropped back down to retest the former resistance level to see if it would hold up as support, and indeed it has.
    When using the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern to identify price targets, you measure the distance between the head and the neckline — which is $5 ($34 neckline – $29 head = $5) in this case — and then add it to the neckline to get a price target of $39 ($34 neckline + $5 = $39 price target)."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting rumor

    by riderlessbeast Nov 13, 2014 9:58 AM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 18, 2014 6:49 AM Flag

    Hasbro-DreamWorks deal is dead as of Monday. Will there be a third suitor???

    "...Shares slumped 14 per cent in New York trading, the biggest one-day loss since the company went public in October 2004, after Reuters reported Hasbro's board has opted out, citing a person familiar with the matter.

    Tensions reportedly emerged between chief executive Jeffrey Katzenberg and Hasbro over a possible valuation. The studio was reportedly seeking $3 billion, or $38 a share. Hasbro never made an official bid and talks were said to be at a "preliminary" stage.

    The collapse in talks marks the second time a reported suitor backs out of a potential deal. In September, Japan's Softbank was said to be in talks with over a possible takeover, but negotiations ended.

    DreamWorks has disappointed investors following the poor performance of some of its recent films, including Rise of the Guardians and Turbo, which have failed to replicate the success of the popular Shrek franchise."

  • Reply to

    I do not know what to think.......

    by outlawjohnmarston Nov 17, 2014 8:10 PM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 18, 2014 12:19 AM Flag

    I wonder how much China is responsible for film piracy in the world. I'm sure it's a huge chunk and the most likely reason for LGF to postpone MJ1 in China. Great move!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OK.........

    by outlawjohnmarston Nov 14, 2014 10:14 AM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 14, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    So, we have MJ1, LGEW going live anytime now, the Michael Burns tour and add a pinch of buyout rumors considering the DreamWorks/Hasbro negotiations (DreamWorks is reportedly asking for $34/sh). That plus CNBC just reported that Alibaba is raising yet another $8B via bond offering. This should prove interesting.

    On another note, next ER will include MJ1, John Wick, plus some earnings from LGEW.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LGF very nice action today.. ALIBABA says

    by realt101 Nov 10, 2014 3:15 PM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 11, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    Hi Wanna, I see a head @ $29 & a shoulder @ $34, indicating a $5 move above $34 on the 1-year chart. Which chart are you looking at for the $45 target?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LGF very nice action today.. ALIBABA says

    by realt101 Nov 10, 2014 3:15 PM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Nov 11, 2014 12:43 AM Flag

    Technician/chartist through Scottrade confirms the inverse "Head & Shoulders" pattern with an initial upside of $38-$39. Possible retest of $35.50 area along the way up.
    Same Technician disavows any "Cup & Handle" pattern due to the fact that a true Cup & Handle occurs during a run up in share price and not a decline. FYI

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lagunadan92677 by lagunadan92677 Nov 10, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Already a major content creator for subscription streaming and TV, Lionsgate will limit OTT ventures to specific brands and audiences

    Lionsgate is considering expanding its BeFit YouTube channel into a broader standalone over-the-top video platform, CEO Jon Feltheimer disclosed in the company’s Nov. 7 fiscal call.

    BeFit, which has more than 1.3 million subscribers to its ad-supported YouTube fitness channel, last month underscored its growing presence in the competitive healthy lifestyle market by partnering with a nutritional supplement company to develop a line of branded nutritional supplements.

    Lionsgate, of course, is a major content producer for television and SVOD services, including Netflix’s most-popular original series, “Orange Is the New Black,” and “Manhattan,” the latter available on Hulu the day after its broadcast airing.

    Lionsgate last month announced a partnership with the Tribeca Film Festival about a SVOD service called “Tribeca Short List” that will include some of its movies as well as third-party curated content.

    Lionsgate has partnered with Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba for a transactional VOD service in Asia. Notably, during the fiscal call, Feltheimer and vice chairman Michael Burns did little to dissuade media speculation Lionsgate’s largest shareholder, Mark Rachesky, is in talks to sell his 37.4% stake to Alibaba.

    “We obviously can’t comment on speculation in the press about any of our shareholders, including our largest and very supportive Mark Rachesky,” Burns said.

    Regardless, the Santa Monica, Calif.-based mini-major has no plans to launch a standalone OTT service featuring its content.

    “In general, as we’re looking at these online channels, whether it’s migrating BeFit to a subscription channel or Tribeca Short List, most of the [digital] channels we will invest in [will be] be more branded, [and] more focused on affinity groups [than the general consumer],” Feltheimer said. “We think there’s a real strong opportunity to have some expansion or boutique array of online channels, but probably fairly focused.”

    Separately, Feltheimer said the studio has begun deploying 360-degree cameras in select scenes of movies to take advantage of changing technologies that involve viewers using a virtual reality headset (i.e. Oculus Rift) when watching video content and playing games.

    “We’re pretty excited about it. We think that’s one of the enhancements that will make our home entertainment significantly more valuable,” Feltheimer said. “We think its pretty cool technology starting to happen out there.”

    Finally, Lioinsgate said it would develop an “innovative and immersive” “Hunger Games” theatrical show set to debut on a special stage near London’s Wembley Stadium in 2016. Dubbed The Hunger Games, the stage musical will be produced by Robin de Levita, creator of the Soldier of Orange musical.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As Lionsgate morphs into a major studio, longtime foreign sales expert Patrick Wachsberger is unveiling a trio of high-concept titles at the American Film Market — “Deepwater Horizon,” starring Mark Wahlberg; Emma Watson-Miles Teller musical “La La Land”; and “Now You See Me 2.”

    Though its reputation has been built on being the home of “Twilight” and “The Hunger Games” franchises, Lionsgate is using AFM to demonstrate just how far it’s come from its days as a mini-major.

    Production starts later this month in London on the sequel. Daniel Radcliffe, Lizzy Caplan and Taiwanese star Jay Chou came on board this week. Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Dave Franco, Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine will reprise their roles.

    “We are doing big movies,” said Wachsberger, co-chairman of Lionsgate’s motion picture group. “And we’re able to let people know when you’re releasing them — they are able to plan from the get-go. They can work on the tie-ins and the promotions.”

    “Deepwater Horizon,” has been dated for Sept. 30, 2016 — five years after Summit and Participant Media acquired feature rights to a New York Times article about the 2010 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico that killed 11 men.

    “It’s going to be like ‘The Perfect Storm’ and ‘Towering Inferno,’” Wachsberger said. “Lionsgate is really the only player in the independent world that can do really big movies like this.”

    “La La Land” begins shooting in California next year.

  • Reply to

    John Wick #1 Monday & Tuesday

    by retiredarmyjoe Oct 29, 2014 10:01 PM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Oct 30, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    John Wick clings to #1 for Wednesday also.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ceo this morning in china

    by outlawjohnmarston Oct 28, 2014 8:25 AM
    lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Oct 28, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    "Well placed media sources have told Variety that talks are still ongoing and are currently focussed chiefly on the cost of the deal."

    If true, the negotiated price may be a pleasant surprise.

  • lagunadan92677 lagunadan92677 Oct 28, 2014 5:38 AM Flag

    Feltheimer’s main message seemed to be one of embracing the changes brought on by digital technology and changing demographics.

    “In the next five years, everything we do – the way we produce, package, distribute, market and monetize content — will be different,” he said.

    “And to those who worry that digital innovators will compress windows, turn business models on their heads and change our ecosystem… I would say, ‘You don’t need to,’ because new, better and more profitable paradigms are waiting to take their place.

    “If you’ve got the right content, a trusted brand, an efficient distribution mechanism and the means to effectively market to the consumer, new channels will be created and they will be successful.

    “Our Tribeca Short List channel that we announced last week is a perfect example. Now we won’t get everyone to subscribe to the Tribeca Short List. But we don’t have to, because we want to create a core affinity group of motivated film consumers and keep them satisfied — and, if we do, the channel will be very successful.”

PBY
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