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Magnum Hunter Resources Corp. Message Board

lake6342 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 7, 2015 10:15 AM Member since: Mar 3, 2012
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  • Reply to

    GLYC

    by chief_maugus Jan 22, 2015 12:53 PM
    lake6342 lake6342 Feb 7, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Any idea why when reading the transcript and listening to the webcast at the Pfizer web site it does not mention Glycomimetics but GMI Biotech as the company it is working with? Yet the slides show Rivipansel presented in the slides?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    my take

    by jms54 Jan 15, 2015 9:11 PM
    lake6342 lake6342 Jan 15, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    Do we really think that MHR will go bankrupt before the next conference call? I would at least wait to see what the management has to say about 2015 and the company status where they are at an what the plans might be?

  • Reply to

    Assumptions on cash flow? Answers?

    by lake6342 Jan 11, 2015 9:23 AM
    lake6342 lake6342 Jan 11, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    Barryright519. In the 3rd quarter conference call the MHR management indicated that with the new financing that was arranged in October they were under no pressure to sell the Bakken property and this was confirmed in public when Gary mentioned that he was keeping the property until things improved. I would think that financial covenants and dangers of violating would be discussed up front in the conference calls by the analysts? I did not hear any discussions in the conference call from November 7th? We should get a reserve report and an update from MHR within the next week or so I would think?

  • Reply to

    Assumptions on cash flow? Answers?

    by lake6342 Jan 11, 2015 9:23 AM
    lake6342 lake6342 Jan 11, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    Thanks for the research barryright519. Cash burn rate should be less with a reduced cap ex and lease purchase for 2015. Here is a back of the envelope value: Looking at their debt it is roughly 1.2 billion, take off 400 million for the Pipleline (100 million less than estimated) value the Bakken property at 100 million (200 million less than estimated) you are left with a debt of 700 million then we are left with the value of the remaining Utica and Marcellus properties, I think they have roughly 125,000 acres? Value that at what per acre including production? 10,000? if 10,000 per acre that is 1.25 billion - 700 million = 550 million in market cap just about 3 bucks a share where we are now. This is a worse case scenerio using rough estimates.

  • Reply to

    Assumptions on cash flow? Answers?

    by lake6342 Jan 11, 2015 9:23 AM
    lake6342 lake6342 Jan 11, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Gary's quote from the November 7th 3rd quarter conference call indicates that they should not have to spend a lot of capital in 2015 to achieve good production growth. Their debt seems to be due out several years so isn't it a matter of having enough cash flow to pay the intrest coupons or payments on the current debt. I would think that if they have decent production growth this should not be a problem?

    Gary;s comment:
    " it's going to be very, very unusual from the standpoint of we spent this huge amount of capital in '14 that's just now, over the next 45 days, is going to be realized. So the back-end weighted and all the shut-ins enable us to not have to spend as much capital in '15, probably less than half to have great production growth.

  • Anyone know the answer to how much cash flow will be generated assuming 32 boe output goals are met by the end of this month? I am confused on the hedging as to how much of the 32k would be hedged? Also assuming $40 oil how much does this effect the cash flow? I would think that since the announcement was made concerning the Eureka flows going up to 500k by the end of the month we are going to have a nice increase on the gas side but do we have enough cash flow to keep the debt paid? Anyone got a good answer to that assuming we meet the gas production numbers?

  • Reply to

    Mon evening update

    by lesurderf Dec 22, 2014 8:28 PM
    lake6342 lake6342 Dec 22, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    Sounds like the job will be completed by tomorrow evening. Good news. Now we need some cold weather to bring up gas prices which doesn't look like it will show up for awhile this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Search WTOV9 news in Ohio and you will find that Triad Hunter is projecting 7 days to install a new well head they could not stop the leak with the current well head. Residents can return to their homes during the day as necessary but will not be allowed to stay in homes until well is fixed. No injuries have occured and the area around the well is restricted for a mile and a half in all directions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Mixing up production with revenue on this board

    by yrstkvet39 Dec 13, 2014 3:09 PM
    lake6342 lake6342 Dec 13, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Yes, I agree that not having the oil hedged will hurt and shows that Gary did not completely see the oil price fiasco coming. However it does appear to me that Gary made the right moves at this point going for the Marcellus and the Utica gas fields, it is also a good thing that Gary does have some banking experience and it appears that we will not be at the top of the list for financial defaults in the oil patch. I don't expect a fast rebound for MHR as a matter of fact I expect a rough patch to continue for several months to come. We have good land in the Utica and Marcellus, we have a pipeline that even if the IPO gets delayed it will still come to market at a decent value and pipeline stock prices will rebound faster than the E&P companies. From what Gary is saying we can reduce capital expenditures significantly and still get good results in the Utica and Marcellus. I do worry about how natural gas will hold up in price? The positive side of natural gas is that with oil drilling being curtailed the natural gas byproduct of that will eventually mean less natural gas to market. At what point that effects things I am not an expert and I have no idea but I would think eventually it will effect natural gas availability? The Marcellus is basically the lowest cost producer in the game and we are there, that is a good thing in the long run. I regret holding any energy company right now but at some point the blood in the streets will let up,

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    huge debt will be a nightmare

    by gumax2 Dec 10, 2014 2:41 PM
    lake6342 lake6342 Dec 11, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    jms54 is right the oil production is closer to 3000 boe per day but the natural gas production is the bulk of their growth going forward.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    huge debt will be a nightmare

    by gumax2 Dec 10, 2014 2:41 PM
    lake6342 lake6342 Dec 11, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    2000 barrels a day of oil. The majority of the production is going to be natural gas. It is too bad that MHR could not have sold the Bakken properties this year but they are in the core of the Utica and Marcellus natural gas region. Go back just a month or so and Southwest Energy (SWN)paid a nice price to pick up Utica and Marcellus properties from Chesapeake Energy (CHK) that by all accounts was not as high quality as the MHR positions. Analysts valued MHR at $6.50 per share based upon their Utica and Marcellus holdings. The question is whether MHR should be lumped in with the small oil plays and is their debt burden not substainable? It would seem to me that they have liquidity lined up to drill the Utica and Marcellus within a capital budget they can fund ($100 million or so) from their internal resources and drive up the production next year. The pipeline should also provide a cushion to get through this period. I don't see as much risk here as with the small oil shale players without a pipeline, this is a small gas player with significant gas growth and a pipeline.

    Sentiment: Buy

MHR
2.64-0.10(-3.65%)Feb 27 4:08 PMEST

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