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FUQI INTERNATIONAL Message Board

laker9029 523 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 7, 2014 2:28 PM Member since: Oct 25, 2002
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  • Reply to

    in 10K phenterine and Lorcaserin coming!!!!

    by sayz.simmon Aug 7, 2014 2:02 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Aug 7, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Per the conference call, top line results by the end of the fourth quarter 2014. What did you mean by "soon" and what is your source if your info is different from what was said at the conference call?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • laker9029 laker9029 Jul 31, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    This is great information ans should be a good tool for the Eisai drug reps.

    Thanks Sharon.

    L

  • laker9029 laker9029 Jul 30, 2014 11:57 PM Flag

    The oinly surprise would be if they provide guidance and /or make some optimistic statements about future earnings, partnerships or takeover interest. The financials are pretty much a non-event. Looking for a loss of $0,11/share.

  • Reply to

    Financing idea, not that we will need it, but Eisai

    by jgrvus2 Jul 30, 2014 3:17 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 30, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    They should provide some guidance at this update.

    L

  • Reply to

    Financing idea, not that we will need it, but Eisai

    by jgrvus2 Jul 30, 2014 3:17 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 30, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    Belviq will be selling at a rate of 38,000 Rx/wk by year-end 2014 and Arena will be cash flow neutral at that rate of sales. In 2015, Belviq will hit $250 million by mid-year and Arena will earn a $55 million milestone payment. So, a financing may not be in the cards until the share price advances in line with Belviq's pending success.

    L

  • laker9029 laker9029 Jul 30, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Still no script #s for 7/18??

    Although Contrave news may have a short term emotional effect, long term, Contrave is irrelevant. Why pay for 1 pill convenience and why wait if the components are already on the market?

    L

  • Reply to

    The Prix Galien Award

    by simplyincome Jul 29, 2014 9:10 AM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 29, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    This is a great recognition. It will have the attention of the medical, and pharmaceutical, regulatory and academic communities world-wide.

    By the time the award is presented, Belviq will be well on its way to an Rx sales rate of nearly 40,000 Rx/week by the end of 2014 and profitability in 2015.

    L

  • From IV.Board. Posted by flir92 as a reply.

    All credits to foghorn. Hope you don´t mind posting it here

    My 8 1/2 Month Journey With Belviq
    First, I am an investor and a patient on Belviq. I just had blood work done last week and an appointment with my pcp this morning. I started Belviq in earlly November of 2013. I was an obese male weighing about 288 lbs at age 54.
    I had just been diagnosed with bladder cancer the month before and was in the midst of six BCG treatments that have so far sent it into remission. It will be a 5 year course of treatment.

    I was motivated to lose weight. I have been losing at about 5 1/2 to 7 lbs per month. My A1c has gone from 6.6 just a couple of days before I started Belviq to 5.9 after 3 months, 6 about three months later and last week it was 5.3.
    This was after stopping my statin meds and cutting my Metformin in half, down to 500mg twice daily.

    This morning, my pcp said I can cut it in half again! And if my readings stay around the 80's I can stop taking Metformin altogether. I have lost 55 lbs. in 8 1/2 months.

    This drug has changed my life. You doubters can just go away. My doctor is amazed. I am with Kaiser, so I pay out of pocket. Worth it at 10 times the price!!! I am a new person now. My doctor also said he had written a couple of other scripts and was going to talk to head of the bariatrics dept. about my results.

    My cancer is in remission, my blood work is great and I (Belviq) may have cured my diabetes at 55 years old. Life is good. This is a long post, but I thought you would like to know. I don't know how to get this info to Arena and I am not on facebook. I will post my progress again in about 90 days. Thank you for taking the time to read about my journey.

    Foghorn Less

  • Reply to

    Conservative enterprise value

    by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:13 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Amen to that. I guess my numbers diddling supports what you say...I am incredulous as well.

    L

  • Reply to

    Conservative enterprise value

    by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:13 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    As stated by various posters weekly Rx of 38,000/wk by 12/31/14. Supported by trend data for 7 months of 2014. Projecting at a 2% growth rate for 2015 yields total sales of $1.1 billion for 2015.

    Yes, 5% is probably a little aggressive if we are comparing investment alternatives, however, for simplicity sake, I had used 0% growth for years 3-10 and excluded all IP, pipeline, other indications, other regional; approvals and revenues, TaiGen, current assets, etc, (this is just Belviq) so the 5% seemed reasonable. Maybe I should include another $250 million in year one at a discount factor of 1.0 to account for that. That would give a EV of $2.95 Billion and a sp of $13.47

    Additionally, the market return for the last 10 years has been around 7%, not 10-11%, so I am comfortable. I could put a very detailed model together, but as I have said, I would rather not trip over minutiae.

    Perhaps I should have titled my post "Value of Belviq to the Enterprise"..

    L

  • Reply to

    Conservative enterprise value

    by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:13 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    Per Dew Diligence "the efficient market theory is the most ridiculous B.S. ever promulgated" .. (or something like that)

  • Reply to

    Conservative enterprise value

    by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:13 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Would you like to know how the $12.32 was developed?

  • Enterprise value using a 10 year NPV discounted @5%/yr and assuming flat Belviq sales after 2015 (no US growth and no EU, Canada or other regions contributing and $0 value for IP and pipeline) is $2.7 Billion. Which indicates a SP of $12.32 ---- essentially for Belviq alone.

    This scenario is very pessimistic, and will certainly be exceeded.

    L Less

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Growth scenario

    by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 12:06 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Enterprise value using a 10 year NPV discounted @5%/yr and assuming flat Belviq sales after 2015 (no US growth and no EU, Canada or other regions contributing and $0 value for IP and pipeline) is $2.7 Billion. Which indicates a SP of $12.32 ---- essentially for Belviq alone.

    This scenario is very pessimistic, and will certainly be exceeded.

    L

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Failure to get over 5 this week and...

    by sp500chartdotcom Jul 28, 2014 2:17 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    The markets operate on emotion and fear and both are coming exclusively from the manipulators with no response or effort to correct by the company.

    Jack has failed to correct misinformation that is now accepted by the markets as fact. Misinformation regarding Belviq leaves the general opinion that Belivq is a complete failure. A 200K sale by the CEO supports that misinformation.

    Belviq will sell over 165 million in 2014 and over $1 billion in 2015, but the market has been told and believes otherwise. It assigns $0 value to Belviq and little to the pipeline due to the Jack's IR/PR incompetence.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    BELVIQ works, JL is the problem

    by anthonymccoy726 Jul 28, 2014 1:06 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Jack has done great things, baut has failed to recognize that he is responsible for shareholder value as well. Eventually, all this will be overcome by marketplace success, but for now, he should consider the following:

    He has failed to recognize that unless the company responds to misinformation and aggressively works to create awareness that misinformation will win.

    Finally, what does Audet do? In a company this size, the CFO job is pretty simple and he is not qualified to do the IR work IMO. Jack has failed to create and staff a competent IR/PR group.

    L

  • Reply to

    Growth scenario

    by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 12:06 PM
    laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    In the interest of simplicity, that is ignored in these scenarios. This is simply Belviq minus $140M/yr usage of cash Obviously, the 17M/yr and the minimal Mfg revenue, (which is is mainly offset by cost) is a plus. Also ignored is any gain from TaiGen that is recognized, interest income, etc. This point of this little exercise was to use know trend data and show the implication of a zero and 2% growth for Belviq. Also, I donT remember whether there is a milestone due at $1 billion or not, so that is left out. This is purposefully simplistic, we know cash burn, amortization of past milestones, etc..

    Using these scenarios or other scenarios of your choice, we could obviously do a 10 nyear discounted cash flow and come up with a value for the company......while that is simple, it is obvious but beyond the scope of this little exercise.

    I had thought of building some detailed models, but felt that it would be tripping over minutaie. Typically, there is not too much interest in detail here LOL.

    The implications, if these are even close are: Substantial free cash generation, positive earnings, especially with all the tax losses that can be carried forward, etc., etc., Also, I think this pans out as these conservative cases show, it busts the fantasy of the current share price big time.

    Thanks.

    L

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • laker9029 by laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    Simplistic and assumptions are as stated (assums $140m/yr cash burn, 219 mil shares, US only)

    1. 12/31/14 Rx (Symphony) at 4% WoW 38,000
    2. 2014 Belviq sales $160 Million
    2a. Arena 2014 Belviq Revenue 50 Million
    2b. 2014 EPS(loss) /share (.$41)
    3. 2015 Belviq sales @ 0% WoW after 12/31/14 395 Million
    3a. Arena 2015 Belviq revenue @ 0% 122 Million
    3b. 2015 EPS @ 0% ($0.71)
    4. 2015 Belviq Sales @2% WoW after 12/31/14 $1.1 Billion
    4a. Arena 2015 Belviq Revenue @2% WoW 343 million
    4b. 2015 EPS @ 2% ($0.93)
    5. milestone payment fo 250 million sales 55 millionr
    6. Other milestones

    Obviously., sustained growth is the key to how long and how much...LOL....
    Also, IMs obviously gives lower numbers, but actual is what it is....

    If growth grows beyond 4% for 2014 or 2% long term, look out!

    L

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • laker9029 laker9029 Jul 28, 2014 1:57 AM Flag

    Belviq will be over 65,000 per week by this time next year.

    At a growth rate of 4% WoW Belviq will be at 37,880 Rx by the end of December 2014. At that rate, Arena's revenue, from Belviq, for 2015 will be 132 million from total sales of $394 million. ...that's assuming no growth after 12/31/14... however, given the enormity of the market, Belviq could be over 100,000 Rx per week by the end of 2015, even with a growth rate of only 2% and 2015 sales would be around $1.04 Billion.

    L

FUQI
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