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DHT Holdings, Inc. Message Board

lamarrshood 20 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2015 9:18 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2011
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  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood May 20, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    The converts add share count so they have diluted/will dilute the equity. You can see the impact of this at the bottom of the income statement in the diluted share count line. For 1Q, the impact of these additional ghost shares from the convert was 2 cents per share of earnings.

    The strike price of the convert was reduced due to the large dividend that just got declared on the common: this makes sense, if you think about it, b/c the convert was likely priced with a lower dividend assumption and the converts will not get the benefit of this Q's payout (unless they convert).

    Bottom line, and more to the spirit of the original question, the strike price on the converts does not limit upside on the stock, you merely have to keep in mind the diluted impact on earnings. There is still plenty of room for this puppy to run...

    Finally, just for perspective: The current price on the converts is $1.22 (issue price of $1.00).

  • lamarrshood lamarrshood May 18, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Yeah. They have all the capital, though (or used to before these ridiculous bank reforms), so everyone kisses their butts.

    Whatever. Their analysts are increasingly inexperienced (as they cut costs to keep margins after all the new reg requirements) and that is a shame. Our government's fixes for the crisis have done far more damage to the economy long term than the crash itself did. No one is learning how to run this very important part of the economy: the banks have cut more jobs than anybody in the last 6 years.

  • lamarrshood lamarrshood May 18, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    PT...

    My 2 cents: Just because he is from JPM doesn't carry much weight. I am willing to bet this analyst is under 30... If not just over that. This is his first lead coverage gig. No offense to him, I'm sure he is bright, but I don't put too much "stock" in his views. Especially when he is using "high charter coverage" (at what rate!!??) and high cost structure (including the high financing and acquisition related expenses in his forward run rates) as reasons why he is just "neutral" on DHT. If anybody is trading out on this initiation, cheaper reinvestment shares for me.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Agree 100% with Play Tow

    by lamarrshood May 14, 2015 9:47 AM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood May 14, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    You're right. I'd take 12 today. Ha ha. Gonna be fun. Get the popcorn goin!

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood May 14, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    But I do NOT want a buy out... Just keep giving me the divies to reinvest and keep the rates up.

    By the end of 2017, dividends reinvested, this could be close to a triple.

    Good luck, all.

  • lamarrshood lamarrshood May 8, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    Dan-the-man:

    While I don't think it is a bad move, the product tanker trade seems crowded and has been over-hyped. The sneaky value is in crude, which is being ignored because it has been so terrible for so long. $ for $, I bet you will make much more in DHT than STNG... Gonna be fun to see since both are very likely going to make you $.

    Good luck, brother.

  • Reply to

    Added more at $7.86

    by lamarrshood May 6, 2015 10:23 AM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood May 7, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    RE: rates... Sure, VLCC rates are down 20% from the spike in later April but still well-above the YTD March lows which is a bit of an uncharacteristic pattern for this time of year. If rates hold above those lows through the start of June, we will probably be in pretty good shape.

    ...I think I pounced too early, in any case. That's what I get for shouting from the roof tops.

    Good luck, everybody.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood May 6, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    Rates are holding and there are lots of reasons for them to remain elevated. Hopefully the price remains near 8 through the pay out date for good reinvestment prospects. You get 1.9% more shares at current price levels in a single quarter. My near-term reduction price is $9.50... Only because at this point, I am WAY above my max allocation to a single name.

  • Reply to

    DHT Now a 7.5%

    by play_tow Apr 29, 2015 10:10 AM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    Totally agree play tow... Plowing my dividends right back in to the stock. I wouldn't mind having 5.625% (or higher if the share price declines) shares by the end of the year. See my comments on FRO.

  • Reply to

    -Whistle- profits!

    by lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 9:52 AM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    May be true. It is healthy for the stock to diversify the holder base... Earnings like today will assist with that.

    Also... Again reminds me of how tankers got treated in 2003. Everyone thought the high rates were temporary. The market called bullsh-t on rates until well in to 2005... If you bought FRO in 2003 and reinvested the divies to sell in 2008, you would have made a 2000% return.

    A lot different now from then (no China build) but some dynamics are similar.

    Just keep reinvesting. I hope the market stays skeptical. If it goes down to 7.75, I will buy more.

  • Reply to

    -Whistle- profits!

    by lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 9:52 AM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Again. Crazy volatility and price action speaks to holder concentration.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Some big holders definitely taking some profits here. Hold the line, guys, this is probably just a risk exercise. Lots more upside from here.

  • lamarrshood lamarrshood Apr 29, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    I agree with the Chewy...

    Also. We should note a lot of uncertainty has been removed with the new ship financing (they got the loans), not to mention the RE financing of some loans that were formerly due in 2016. It's all good. Lots more interest in the call today, too.., took 45 min which is double the amount of time their calls usually take.

    Good luck, longs.

  • lamarrshood lamarrshood Apr 28, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Oh. They got the loans done too. Labor plus 2.2%. Giddy up.

  • Still going through release. Larger pay out is nice. Good luck longs.

  • lamarrshood lamarrshood Apr 28, 2015 8:28 AM Flag

    Also. I will add today on weakness... And perhaps pare a little tomorrow on strength.

  • As posted numerous times before, shareholder concentration is one reason why this stock doesn't move with market and sector fundamentals: the top 10 investors own 50% of the stock... They aren't trading it.

    I suggest remaining long. This thing will be a dividend machine in the coming years. Can't wait to see what they do with their excess cash flow in 1Q: it should be about $0.45 per share (~$40M)... Given ship schedule they may just retain it.

  • It's not difficult to do in this space: really not much institutional sponsorship, nor marketcap, and people got their faces ripped off in '11 and '12.

    Reminds me of how the stocks were treated in 2001-2003. We don't have the same major demand increase in front of us now like we did then, but skepticism now, as then, is running extremely high. If 2Q rates are not sustained, we should expect the sector to fall right back down again which will offer another good buying opportunity for DHT.

    A question I have is: what will they do with the excess cash flow between now and when the boats are delivered? They clearly are generating a lot more than they thought they would. Some might expect a special dividend... I hope they are buying back their stock in the open market. $50M EBITDA this quarter... That is SEVEN TIMES what it was in 1Q14 and just about double what it was in 4Q14. If you assume $10M for capex and debt service, they could decide to take out 5M shares or so... Probably not going to happen, but, I can hope.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Mar 17, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    $20M ex expenses (for just 9 months on just 4 ships) is $0.21 per share... I really don't get how this stock is not trading higher than this. 45K on a VLCC exceeds any contract they had in the 2010 time frame.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Mar 2, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Bought more today 6.75... Based on my contention that this leg-lower trade is for any of the following 3 reasons:

    DHT fixed their Afras.
    Oil demand/price is declining.
    Folks are rotating their tanker bet in to FRO on FRO-12 consolidation rumors.

    None of these things should've hampering the stock.

    Still looking for big dividends in 2017 and for a double digit price by YE with U.S. oil exports (possibly) and no-alternative oil storage in the near to medium term (tankers used as land-based tanks fill up).

    Good luck, all.

DHT
7.89-0.09(-1.13%)May 29 4:07 PMEDT