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DHT Holdings, Inc. Message Board

lamarrshood 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 17, 2014 10:11 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2011
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  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Dec 17, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Go to the App Store on your smart phone; search for VLCC fixtures. Pretty cool application. ...Seeing rates from the Arab Gulf to Japan this AM being reported at 93K per day.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Dec 16, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Everyone has moved oil demand forward where they have been able to which is clearly what is spiking rates... This obviously includes the Chinese filling their strategic reserve. But are we so sure demand for transport will evaporate after this current spike? What about U.S. Exports? That oil is best consumed at less complex refineries around the world. Also. If oil is cheaper, more is consumed: it competes head to head with LNG in a lot of places in the world.

    With fleet growth negligible for the next 2 years, dirty tankers seem like a good bet at least through that horizon to me.

  • Reply to

    10 Dec 2014: VLCC Spot....$72,357

    by audiophul Dec 10, 2014 4:13 PM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Dec 11, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    Not sure what is happening here if Audio is starting to sound bullish... I am watching for a hoard of locusts; blood rain; fire and brimstone; all the (wrath of) Moses type sht... Just kidding Audio.

    I am pretty amazed the stock is not responding like it did a year ago... Lower oil really scaring people - although as Audio pointed out, makes ship storage more likely.

    Tough not to like tanker stocks through 2017 in my view... I think the US will be exporting (directly), too by 2016.

    ...Another valuation metric: DHT was trading at $220 of EV per dwt in 2010... Average dwt age of 12.4 years.

    The 2017 fleet dw tonnage will have an average age of 8.6 years... And the stock is trading at $178 per dwt.

    Can't wait for the dividends.

    Good luck, all.

  • Reply to

    1 Dec 2014: VLCC Spot....$67,792/day

    by play_tow Dec 1, 2014 12:06 PM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Dec 4, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    OK, sorry... What do you think about transport dynamics in the future? Does the Chinese fleet crater rates if the U.S. starts to export? Is there enough demand growth in Europe, India and elsewhere in Asia to (also help) counteract the added capacity? I feel like about 50% of the Chinese fleet is already sailing.

  • Reply to

    Amarek1984 - RE: WLT

    by lamarrshood Nov 7, 2014 3:31 PM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Dec 2, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Like I said. Selling Walter was what you should have done back in early November.

  • Reply to

    1 Dec 2014: VLCC Spot....$67,792/day

    by play_tow Dec 1, 2014 12:06 PM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Dec 2, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    ...This will come earlier than their new fleet?

    OK. But the new Samco ships give them plenty of exposure right away... Like, as I type this. And with their TCs rolling off in the near term, too.

    ...New builds now account for (just) 27% of fleet dw tonnage...

    I like the fact that tankers have traded off with oil even as rates have hit multi-year highs. I added again yday at $6.09. Way above my all time high in terms of total portfolio exposure.

    'Looking for a payout of at least 45 cents in 2017...

    Good luck, all.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Nov 20, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Doubled down here at 5.87... Back up to my historical max.

    On today's year-charter rates for DHT's 2017 fleet, the company would generate about $110M in cash flow after capex. That is a free cash flow yield of over 20%.

    We could get a $ per share divie in '17.

    Giddy up.

  • lamarrshood by lamarrshood Nov 7, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    All coal is not created equal. Walter is not affected in the least by the election results. They are all met coal and therefore levered to China. That stick should not be moving... This is all momo $. Very tricky to get the trades right. I would sell WLT today if I owned it.

  • Good luck, longs.

  • Reply to

    See TNP Market Update Today....Very Bullish on VLCC

    by play_tow Oct 16, 2014 12:32 PM
    lamarrshood lamarrshood Oct 17, 2014 12:56 AM Flag

    ...Oil goes down? People sell tankers... TNP highlights the truth. When oil is volatile, better for transport! Thanks for posting, play. Good luck!

  • In the last 5 trading days, I have doubled my position size at an average cost of $5.79.

    If the oil price curve steepens in the next few quarters, happy days for tankers.

    Enjoy the ride, all. I am looking for a recurring dividend of $0.75-$0.45 by the end of 2016. If my boggie is a 5% yield, that means I would be willing to pay $15-$9 per share.

    Good luck.

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