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Safe Bulkers, Inc. Message Board

lambrusco_83 121 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2016 11:16 PM Member since: Feb 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    zack's bullish attitude

    by naga00 May 21, 2016 1:44 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 22, 2016 11:16 PM Flag

    sg,
    That's what I think they are doing also---discounting based on FUTURE predictions. Even though there has been only good clinical news to date, this is still a Phase II company. Regardless of the data to date, failure is seen more often than success (in general). There aren't too many analysts who would place a discounted value anywhere near 100% of possible future estimated revenues--more likely 10-20%.

    Now, as some others have also mentioned, partnership/backing from Big Pharma would add PROFESSIONAL validation. And when you make an "enemy" your partner--others would listen. And the pps (and future pps estimates) would follow accordingly.

    2016 IS the year to find out of Arrowhead is legit or not. They WON'T go out of business, but, this year's trials WILL determine if we are holding a true PHARMA company or not. If they get to $30 by year end--you best hold even longer--because if they get to that level, they will likely get to $100 shortly (i.e. a year/two) afterwards. Just my opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Secondary price

    by dothemu May 19, 2016 2:40 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 19, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    dothemu,
    With the current pps, $5 may be a tough sell. And I'm not sure if 5 million shares yielding $20-$25 million (depending upon the price you use) is enough to have leverage (that's still barely one year worth of cash). I'm thinking a secondary would have to result in at least TWO years of funding in order to have ONE solid year of strong partnership negotiations.
    This is why CA is indeed cutting things close, although, if he believes (or KNOWS) the ongoing trial data serves as the leverage, that's their strongest position for a fair deal, imo. I think CA has the confidence (or is it arrogance?) to say, "If you don't want to assist us with being FIRST TO MARKET, that's fine. We'll either find someone else or we'll issue more shares. Either way, we're going to do this--and you can be a part of it or watch from the sidelines."

    I am fine with letting management play this out as they see fit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Up 20% Pre-Market

    by anything4myfamily May 19, 2016 9:16 AM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 19, 2016 10:17 AM Flag

    You may not like lucali / nfr (not one of my favorites), but when he's right, he's right.

  • lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 18, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    Another id jerry?!?!
    Another to ignore.
    You are atrocious! (How's that for English?

  • lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 18, 2016 2:58 PM Flag

    hedon,
    You still haven't clarified brokerbuz's question, "So who did you hear it from?".
    Get back to the topic at hand.

  • lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 18, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    Dorfman "again"??
    Member since today?

    Someone else may, but I am not taking Fred Dorf, "The Dorfman" seriously.

  • Reply to

    The last CC

    by geroge_clooneys May 18, 2016 7:51 AM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 18, 2016 11:57 AM Flag

    I so can't stand it when I agree with one of your posts, lucali...But, there's another one (few and far) I can't disagree with. :-)

    Regardless, I remain a Strong Buy sentiment...As you never really know what will truly happen...Until it does.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Letter to IR

    by henryz0o May 16, 2016 10:57 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 17, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    onigiroshi,
    You posted, "...it might be in ARWR's benefit to conduct a secondary. ".
    I agree in concept. Having some (additional) amount of cash would (also) put Arrowhead in a stronger bargaining position. And CA is definitely playing a challenging game here. But, from what I am hearing/interpreting from past CC's, the hand he is holding is the trial results and that is where he intends on having strength in negotiations. Personally, I'm okay with that. Even though we can discuss whether or not the data is coming to the SHAREHOLDERS fast enough, when it IS disclosed, it has only been GREAT! That has been proven for several YEARS now. (AND I challenge anyone to dispute that with EVIDENCE!).

    I also agree that Arrowhead is not CURRENTLY "running out of money"...Management still has several more MONTHS to play out the strategy of Science FIRST to ink a partnership THIS YEAR. I'm willing to wait (and buy more along the way).

    Again, for those who are judging the company on TODAY's shareprice, they are not paying attention or are simply not long this stock--in which case, I really don't care because that's a completely different mindset.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Letter to IR

    by henryz0o May 16, 2016 10:57 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 17, 2016 2:53 PM Flag

    minh,
    I am NOT looking at TODAY's (depressed) stock. I am waiting for OTHER MILESTONES to be realized before I judge ARROWHEAD on the stock price. If that is a different approach then you or henry or others have, so be it.

    For those that like analogies: When I order a steak I don't demand a piece from the chef while it is still being cooked! I wait for it to be delivered to my plate, THEN I judge whether it was worth the price.
    This steak is still on the grill people!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Letter to IR

    by henryz0o May 16, 2016 10:57 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 17, 2016 12:08 PM Flag

    What I would prefer, is getting a few swings at some heads using holden's bat! :-)

  • Reply to

    Letter to IR

    by henryz0o May 16, 2016 10:57 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 17, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    Nice Henry.

    Although, what would you say if the replies were similar to the following?:
    1) How urgent and serious is management in seeking capital ? Arrowhead management considers the funding effort a very serious topic. We will continue to pursue both short and long term solutions to funding our efforts with shareholder value in mind.
    2) Which method would management prefer, partnership or secondary, or a mix of the two ? A non-dilutive solution will always be preferred, however, we would always weigh all possible alternatives.
    3) Who is working on funding the company right now ? We have several mid and high level personnel working on this concern--it is a team effort.
    4) What is that status of the capital funding progress and any estimation of when it can be complete ? We continue to make our IP as attractive as possible to potential partners. Our current cash allows us to proceed with our previously noted trials into 2017. We expect to resolve the current funding challenge before the end of 2016.

    Will you still be complaining? (Probably).

    We, as shareholders, really do NOT need this answer until the END OF THIS YEAR! We already KNOW the plan---and it is SCIENCE FIRST. It is quite obvious, to me at least, the better the science, the better the partner (i.e. non-dilutive) agreement. It just so happens, the TIMING is cutting things a bit close! If management did not wish to put the SCIENCE (i.e. trial results) on the table as a bargaining chip, they would have ALREADY raised cash with another secondary! The fact they haven't, should tell you CA is sincere when he says he wants the SCIENCE to define the partnerships! And so with each day passing, they spend more cash, but they also progress with the trials! CA has ALREADY TOLD YOU THE STRATEGY!!!!

    If you don't like that approach, or simply don't have the stomach to ride this out, then sell now! (Geesh!)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ALNY has lapped ARWR in AAT

    by crisprcas94me May 16, 2016 1:24 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 16, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    hogan,
    "I usually look at the market to help me decide what is happening with a company. The shorts are clearly all over this company and they typically do their homework."
    That's not MY approach, but to each their own.

    As for, "I believe given all this new information that it's probably best to sell ARWR at this point and put on a protected short position because there isn't anything happening for another year or so."
    I won't discuss what you believe is "new"...I think you and I have different meanings. As for "there isn't anything happening for another year or so"...Arrowhead MUST do SOMETHING about funding for 2017 and beyond. They WILL run out of money at some point in the next 3-4 quarters. If you choose to sell now, that's your own personal decision. But, knowing management MUST do something, but NOT knowing EXACTLY when they will address it, I guess you need to ask whether you want to be holding BEFORE they announce the funding solution or AFTER. If their answer is a secondary, then selling now may not necessarily be a bad idea...But, if the answer is via a partnership...You'll most certainly be buying back at a price MUCH HIGHER than the current levels.

    Listening to posters, myself included, without fact checking, should NEVER be the approach. crispr's posts are a perfect example of that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ALNY has lapped ARWR in AAT

    by crisprcas94me May 16, 2016 1:24 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 16, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    crispr, hogan:
    WRONG...WRONG...WRONG!

    A Yahoo User and dig confirm similar via clinicaltrials dot gov:
    ALN-AAT: Ongoing but NOT recruiting...First received July 16, 2015
    ARC-AAT: Currently Recruiting participants...First received February 2, 2015.

    It appears as though ALNY is still BEHIND Arrowhead!

    It's so easy to do minimal research to expose the liars/bashers.
    So, who will you believe? crispr, hogan?? Or clinicaltrials dot gov and you OWN DD?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good news! Good news!

    by marcpuckett May 13, 2016 11:03 AM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 13, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    ....or today's price action is simply a response to the recent drop in pps from the $6s. We haven't had (big) news to validate the move over 6 nor the drop to the lesser 5's...Nor the volume. This is just usual trading action, imo.

    As for "partnership by summer"...Hopefully. But using CA's guidance, we should give them until the end of 2016 to satisfy that objective.

    Marc, patience is NOT one of YOUR virtues, is it? :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 13, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    Personally, I would NOT expect the majority of physicians to be aware of not-yet-FDA-approved options. There are waaaay too many and most which eventually fail. And, I wouldn't see most of them putting their careers at risk for options which are still in trials (no matter how promising they may appear to some.)

    Having said that, all the best to you, mudbug.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Way over sold territory

    by gina_gnta May 13, 2016 9:05 AM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 13, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    lucali,
    I DO so despise agreeing with you, but occasionally you do surprise:
    Re: "...who cares if there is a secondary or not if you are long, the important thing is you have financing to continue a path you believe in.".
    I do agree with that--I have posted a few times that a secondary (if it must happen) shouldn't be viewed as the 'end of the world" for Arrowhead.

    As for longs--well, there are longs and then there are looongs. For those who have been buying/holding for a couple of years, many do want to start cashing in this year, so a secondary will likely delay that intent. I myself would at least want to get back some of my original investment (now) since my first purchase over 5 years ago. But, I also plan on holding a significant amount for a few more years to see how the looooong story plays out. And a secondary at this time would likely only have a minimal impact on the loooooonger term in reality.

    And for the record, again, I do NOT think the funding solution for 2017 and beyond will be resolved with a secondary. I DO believe it will be taken care of with some sort of partnership-s. But, we will see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Are we going down to visit the 7's?

    by krazed_hipster May 12, 2016 1:14 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 13, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    We're on the same page, wyatt.
    (I have you to thank for bringing this stock to my attention a couple years back).
    I actually DID use 50% of the $10.24 sale of ADMP to buy some cheap ARWR. The rest went to profit (and eventually some taxes). :-)

    If ADMP goes much lower before the FDA approval I may be tempted to buy some back...But, I still don't like relying on the FDA for any of my potential profits (at least not in the short term). Regardless, I am also finally playing with house money on this investment...A good place to be. :-)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Are we going down to visit the 7's?

    by krazed_hipster May 12, 2016 1:14 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 12, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    team...
    "No surprise here"????
    You were challenging others who were predicting a RISE to the 7's when it was trading in the 5's!!! So, you were MOST CERTAINLY SURPRISED when this was recently in the double-digits (well above the level where you said you took some profits!). Obviously you WERE SURPRISED!

    And, btw, I took MY profits at $7.25 and $10.24...and continue to hold some for higher pps.

    You guys are soooo funny! You claim it would DROP from the $4-$5 levels and then you claim "I told you so" when it "drops" into the 7's. Here's some basic math for you: SEVEN is HIGHER THAN FOUR!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    1002 infusion

    by holdencf May 10, 2016 6:03 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 12, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    jimmy,

    Re: "Think about the strain on resources this would impose in a 3rd-world environment, or even a 1st-world one, if any volume of patients is to be treated in existing facilities. You may not like someone pointing it out, but I bet this is a damper on BP enthusiasm. I didn't say a showstopper, but a damper."

    I would soften "damper" to something more like a "consideration". If a FC is realized, BP would be all over this, imo. The infusion rate (or infusion vs a pill like Sovaldi) would most likely be a consideration when calculating future value (i.e. If the only cure is via infusion, the most likely market would be chronic HBV, imo). The population of inactive carriers would be a less likely consumer if you needed to show up on a weekly/monthly basis for your injection...But, offer THAT group a pill???

    Regardless, a FC, first in market mind you, via ANY mechanism would be HUGE. The only "damper" I would see is that revenue would "only" be in the billions instead of the "ka-jillions".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    current cash per share is around .81

    by bioshyt May 12, 2016 12:42 PM
    lambrusco_83 lambrusco_83 May 12, 2016 2:13 PM Flag

    bioshyt,

    I gave you a "thumbs up" for this single comment of yours:
    "this is my last post on this board for now".
    :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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