$EXAS Jefferies on CMS pricing - complete note: With CMS expected to release a preliminary pricing determination for Cologuard (Medicare is ~45% of target market) over the coming days, we handicap our expectations ahead of the event and revisit the bridge to our
2015 test volume forecast. Based on our weighted probability assessment, we
expect an ASP outcome of $370 under a cross-walk approach, slightly ahead of
CMS preview. CMS is expected to post its preliminary payment determinations for CY15
CLFS test codes over the coming days, including a payment decision for Cologuard (gapfill
vs. cross-walk), supporting rationale, and the existing codes used to cross-walk. By
way of background, EXAS recommended cross-walking to codes 81275 (KRAS), 81315 (two
methylation markers), and 82274 (FIT) for a proposed payment level of $502. CMS will
accept public comments until early-October and post finalized decisions in November.
Payments will go into effect in CY15, but CMS is expected to retroactively cover tests
performed after the final NCD.
Our Take. Based on our weighted probability assessment, we expect an ASP outcome of
$370 under a cross-walk approach (see Chart 1 on page 2), slightly ahead of our feel for
consensus. We peg the odds of a more bullish $400-500 scenario at ~33% and a $500+
outcome at ~10%. Our model contemplates a $350 ASP; each $50 ASP increment would
have a ~$2 impact to our DCF-based price target. We note that a $350 ASP outcome from
CMS would likely still offer upside to our intermediate-term forecasts, given private payor
rates will likely be at a premium to Medicare.
2015 test volume assumptions appear rational. EXAS expects to have ~100 reps
detailing Cologuard to high-volume FIT/FOBT docs by year-end. Assuming only a 70%
patient compliance rate (mgmt.'s bonus trigger), our 2015 volume forecast of ~215K tests
implies each rep must only convert ~15% (2.5 docs/month) of their ~200 targeted docs with
minimal contribution from larger instit
But as WeChat has seemingly plateaued at about 650-700 million registered users in China, Weibo has seen "an increase in users and user engagement levels," Hou said. That includes 1.6 billion download times as of Aug. 12, which represents growth of 84% since the start of the year, she said.
The company is engaging with TV shows to expand its visibility, Hou said, and driving advertising growth by adding more key advertiser accounts.
"Due to Weibo's ability to push precision advertising to its wide user base ... the company is better positioned to help key accounts to conduct specific marketing campaigns to reach the intended users," she wrote.
In Q2, Weibo posted revenue of $77.3 million, up 105% on rising advertising and marketing revenue.
But costs and expenses rose 80%, to $84.1 million, during the quarter. For Q2, Weibo reported a net loss per share ex items of 3 cents, compared with an 8-cent loss in the year-earlier quarter.
For the current quarter, Weibo sees revenue of $79 million and $82 million. Analysts polled by Thompson Reuters are expecting $81.7 million.
Weibo Seen Handling Growth Worries, Analyst Initiates Coverage
By MICHELE CHANDLER
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Recent IPO Weibo's (NASDAQ:WB) stock rose Tuesday after T.H. Capital initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating, saying user growth worries have eased.
The firm set a price target of 24 on Weibo stock.
Weibo runs a Chinese-language microblogging social network, much like Twitter (NYSE:TWTR)or Facebook (NASDAQ:FB).
Weibo — 'microblog' in Chinese — was spun off by Chinese Web portal Sina (NASDAQ:SINA), which reduced its stake in the company to 56% from 78% but retained about 80% of voting power. China Internet powerhouse Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA), expected to debut on the U.S. stock market next week, is Weibo's second-largest shareholder, with a 32% stake.
Weibo stock was up nearly 8% in afternoon trading in the stock market today, near 21.50.
Weibo stock debuted at 17 in its April 17 IPO and touched its all-time high that day, at 24.48. Investor concerns over Weibo's user growth and potential for monetization have weighed on the stock since then.
"At this point, we believe these two issues are being addressed, and as such the revenue potential can be realized in the near future," wrote T.H. Capital analyst Tian Hou in her initiation report Tuesday.
In Q2, the social media service reported that its monthly active users rose 30% from a year earlier, to 156.5 million.
"Weibo's popularity stems from its ability to offer people in China a platform to openly voice their opinions as well as to promote social interactions in a government controlled media," Hou said. "While other companies also launched their own Weibo (microblogging) service, Sina's Weibo was the only one that users really embraced."
The microblog has encountered challenges, including competition from Tencent's rival WeChat and "the shutdown of many big verified Weibo accounts, most of whom were opinion influencers," as part of a Chinese government cleanup campaign, Hou wrote.
2) let's just assume that there is a partnership/buyout on August 11, only you know where you stand as far as how much you will be losing if this happens. If it were me, I would beg, steal, or borrow to cover. The very least you could do is try to balance the books a little by purchasing some shares to ease the pain a little.
More IC vendors to engage in merger or acquisition deals
Cage Chao, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 25 July 2014]
Following the recent announcement of the planned merger between FocalTech Systems and Orise Technology, more Taiwan-based touchscreen controller and LCD driver IC vendors are likely to be involved in merger or acquisition deals, according to industry sources. FocalTech will take over the management of Orise scheduled on January 2015, but the survivor company will continue to use Orise's name for a while after the merger.
Raydium Semiconductor has been indicated to be a target for acquisition as its parent company, the AU Optronics (AUO) Group, has said that it will actively release its holdings in non-core business units in 2014. AUO also holds a minor stake in Orise.
A number of companies, including Elan Microelectronics, Novatek Microelectronics and Himax Technologies, have been indicated as potential buyers for Raydium, the sources noted.
Elan aims to land touchscreen controller chip orders from AUO through acquisition of Raydium, while ramping up its revenues to over NT$10 billion (US$333.44 million) a year, the sources remarked. But other sources indicated that Raydium, which has been performing well in recent years, has an intention to acquire touch-controller vendor Egalax-empia Technology (EETI).
Fluidigm is projecting 2014 total revenue to be between $111 million to $116 million. Organic revenue is now projected to be between $91 million and $94 million, an increase of 28% to 32% over 2013, versus prior growth guidance of 23% to 28%.
Leerink upgraded Fluidigm to Outperform citing reasonable consensus revenue estimates and strong demand for single cell gene expression analysis tools. The firm has a $52 price target for shares.
Exact Sciences price target raised to $25 from $17 at JMP Securities
JMP Securities increased its price target on Exact Sciences after an FDA panel unanimously voted to recommend approval of the company's ColoGuard test. The firm anticipates that the test will be approved in 2H14, and thinks it could become a major standard of care for the detection of colorectal cancer. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.
ILMN: UBS Keeps @ Buy; Keeps Tgt @ $202
Tuesday , March 25, 2014 09:17ET
Issuer: Illumina Incorporated (NasdaqNM: ILMN)
Analyst Firm: UBS
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: MAINTAIN
Target Price: $202.00
IC backend service company ChipMOS Technologies plans to debut on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) in April with an initial price ranging NT$25-30 (US$0.82-0.98). The company posted an EPS of NT$1.33 and NT$2.76 in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Increasing backend services for LCD driver ICs will be the growth driver for ChipMOS in 2014 thanks to rising popularity of Ultra HD TVs, according to company chairman Shih-Jye Cheng.
Global shipments of Ultra HD TVs are expected to double to 15 million units in 2014 as compared to the previous year, Cheng said, citing data from market research firms. New investments in 2014 will focus on ramping ChipMOS' 12-inch gold bumping capacity, Cheng noted. ChipMOS will also see its profitability improve on-year on increasing packaging orders for mixed signal and logic ICs, said the company.
ChipMOS posted revenues of NT$19.36 billion in 2013, edging up 1% from the previous year. Gross margin stood at 17.5% in 2013 compared to 13.2% a year ago.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
FLDM: Maxim Group Keeps @ Buy; Ups Tgt to $65 vs $52
Friday , March 21, 2014 10:42ET
Issuer: Fluidigm Corp. (NasdaqNM: FLDM)
Analyst Firm: Maxim Group, LLC
Ratings Action: REITERATION
Current Rating: Buy
Target Price Action: INCREASE
Target Price: $65.00 (+25.00% from $52.00)