Wouldn't a deal or partnership being in place, but not announced, constitute a material event that wasn't disclosed? Isn't there a 4-business day 8K filing requirement? So unless such a deal was done last week, I doubt we'll hear anything. If we did, we may be vulnerable to a(nother) lawsuit. If the company withholds information so that index funds can buy in at a lower price, they are simultaneously cheating anyone who sells during this period between the deal and the announcement, except during the 4-business day interval. Interestingly, because the company is selling shares directly to the index, wouldn't they be cheating themselves in addition to any other sellers? Am I mistaken on any of this?
When was the last time Sanofi launched a first-in-class product that represents a paradigm shift? If it has been a while, perhaps they are too big and stuck in their mode of pushing products by competing on price, margins, volume, etc. What I fear is needed here is a "Delta Force" of change, not a large marching army that can only follow the present course.
Are there any other big or medium pharmas that are experts and penetrating markets with paradigm shifting products? Is there a boutique pharma sales/consulting firm that can tell Sanofi how they need to attack this differently? This is not Lantus, Toujeo, or anything else they hock, so they can't follow the same strategy they would for those products. Dinners are fine, but it just seems very old school and your reach is limited. Why not a webcast that a physician registers for and received something in compensation for viewing the presentation and answering a short survey afterward. Sometimes when you are the biggest boy on the block, you keep doing what you have been doing because it has worked and you may feel your weight will get you your way.
I am not in Marketing or Pharma, so perhaps Sanofi knows all about how to market this product the right way. At this point in time however, I am not seeing it yet.
To the poster who said something on another thread to the effect of "you don't change horses mid-stream", your point is understood. However, sometimes you do need to change course before it's too late. I don't like to reward non-performance. If we haven't gotten a strong foothold in this market by the next shareholder vote, a change will be made, if not sooner. Honestly, I don't know why Sanofi is doing (or not doing) things the way they are. I sure hope they explain, and I sure hope Mannkind management is asking these questions in closed-door meetings.
Thanks Lakers. The numbers here look good, but is this the older, smaller trial? Maybe it doesn't matter? If Afrezza is faster, even by just a small amount, it could make a difference in better patient control.
You say I'm making factless assumptions that are baseless and without substance, yet you never tell me WHY! If you don't think I deserve a response, fine, but then why type your reply?
Thanks Patrick for your thoughts. I agree Exubera as a product are apples and oranges, but since they are an alternative treatment route, they are similar in only that they are different than the current standard of care.
My only unanswered question so far is about the onset of action . . . I wish I could find that slide that mentions the onset of action is not faster than pens. It was on Mannkind's website, yet Sanofi and probably Mannkind too also state elsewhere that it is faster-acting. I don't understand this apparent contradiction.
mnkd2012, thanks for the input. Exactly the sort of discussion I was looking for.
I agree about the expense of Exubera, I think it was significantly more expensive than the competition, whereas Afrezza will be on par with the competition.
So it sounds like the burden of validation of needle phobia is more on the doctor than the insurance payor? If so, I think the doc would be helpful in those cases where they believed in the drug based on the trial data.
Spiro tests - the Exubera study discussed the costs of the spiro test machines. That was years ago, perhaps as you said spiro tests can now be done by any doctor, and they will have the machine if it's not too expensive. If you're an Endo, and you want some of your patients to try Afrezza, would you spring for a spiro test machine? I would if it is reasonably priced, did not take up too much room when not in use, and I could bill for its use.
Thanks for so eloquently expressing your thorough, highly-reasoned analysis! LOL.You would represent yourself better if you would discuss the points rather than name calling, etc. In a debate forum, that does not cut it.
I have not been an investor in this stock the whole 5 years, only recently, so I am not finished with all my due diligence. Now that we have that silliness out of the way, do you have anything on topic to offer?
Flame me if you want, but I'm a long. Like everyone else I want to do as much due diligence as possible, and that has to involve examining negative points. Help me dispel these negatives:
(A) - Is it REALLY more rapid-acting?According to Mannkind's own website, there is a comment about the rapid action part that I do not understand. It says that while Afrezza gets into the bloodstream faster than competition, the onset of action is NOT faster. So, if that is true, doesn't it mean Afrezza is actually slower-acting? If it gets into the bloodstream faster, yet does not act faster, then it actually takes LONGER to act once in the bloodstream. What would explain this?
(granted, the small tail is still a compelling advantage.)
(B) - Lessons from Exubera: I read a post-mortem study on Exubera from Dartmouth I think. Many of the reasons cited do NOT apply with Afrezza. That is good. However, a few are still questionable.
1) The power structure in filling prescriptions. The insurance payor has the authority, because they pay for the prescription. Their focus is on metrics of cost-effectiveness based on clinical data, not just on doctor or patient interest. So a doctor or a patient can be as gung-ho on Afrezza as they want, but if the payor will only pay under certain conditions, it will be more difficult to gain traction and acceptance quickly. They might say just give the pen a try first.
(I think after a while, the real-world data will show good results, such as fewer hypos, but it may take a while for this to unfold and work its way into the payor's decision-making. They may say, "show me first.")
2) How does the payor validate needle phobia?
3) Since spiro tests will be necessary, in order to get a single prescription, the patient must go to the PCP or Endo, then get a referral to a facility or a pulmonologist, then back to the first PCP or Endo. 3 visits vs. 1, and if every Dr.'s office is busy, it may take a while for each Rx.
I think he was being sarcastic! Re-read the conversation between them and tell me if you think he truly intends to post these materials. Besides, I would guess such company-provided materials would be restricted to company-only computer systems. If someone violated their copyright by posting on a public forum , I suspect the company could come after them if they chose to. I am not in this field so someone correct me if they know otherwise. Thanks.
Your response was pretty funny actually. With my question I was actually interested more in the opinion of others, independent of my own opinion which of course is uninformed until I have adequate time to become informed. My occupation? I am not a mind-reader, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night!
Why the nice runup yesterday? Was it from earth-shattering news from the conf. call, or was it due to new exposure brought by the link on the Yahoo Finance main page? (or some other factor?) I neither heard the call nor read the article, so honestly don't know the answer (hope to do both soon.) I am interested in what people think the answer is, because it may indicate future price direction.
Yes, I see what you're talking about. A little shallow perhaps but it still looks like it could fit. This of course occurs just after I post about another formation! I agree it is too early to call but so far so good. If we don't retract this week I'd say that formation looks good.
Thanks Baba. Do we have a mutual friend with a stock-picking dog, by any chance? If you don't understand the question, then I must be mixing you up with someone else.