What trashhhed said. It is better to shake out some weak hands here and push shares to institutions that will hold shares as the story unfolds: that will get us better prices down the road. Test the 200MA and bounce higher when people figure out there is no warning for Q1: that could be a catalyst for analysts to pick up coverage at these levels too.
The people shaking the share tree are counting on it. Until volume picks up and shares blow through the bottom Bollinger Band or 200MA the selling isn't anything to be concerned about.
Until something changes with the addressable market and competition or AudioCodes falters AUDC shares are an investment not subject to the vagaries of the markets. A couple years ago the thesis to buy and hold was selling AUDC for parts would yield a 200% to 300% gain in a couple of years. The parts are more valuable because of Lync, UC, the cloud and the number of companies trying to stake a claim in the space. Until that changes or is priced into shares, which is mid-teens at least in my book, AUDC is still a buy and hold investment.
I think it could also be relatively narrow institutional interest that wants more than 5% of the company and is smart enough to hold off bidding shares higher until forced to; slow playing their hand with the broader market getting antsy is working like a charm. A 20% discount to the offer price is a tick under the 200MA and a great place for bankers to step up and pound the table to move shares higher. I'm not rooting for $6.40 but I'll move some things around to buy more shares in that neighborhood.
We're working our way back to the level which flushed out a longtime holder back in January. That sell off seemed contrived to shake loose shares at the time and with the news flow since there isn't much doubt about it.
Investing in individual equities, particularly a micro cap, and matching wits with computers, hedge funds, ethically challenged bankers, et. al. in a world that always seems to be close to spinning out of control is nuts... But what are you going to do, buy Tbills?
I have all the shares of AUDC I want but if the market drives the share price down to 200MA I'll buy a few more and/or take a look at call options. I haven't been paying attention to options of late but I'm sure there is a story there too.
All of the drama with the share price from $9 and back down to the mid-low $7s are so many jukes and head fakes. AudioCodes is still going where it is going and the price will ultimately be determined by mid-term and long-term prospects for AudioCodes solutions.
It is a minority opinion at this point but I don't think the secondary is a mistake. I think the secondary has spurred accumulation of shares and will lead to increased analyst coverage. I think it is plausible to say the extra cash will support expansion of operations which in turn supports super bullish scenarios and a good buyout price near term. The extra cash could also make AUDC more attractive to a major player like DT as a partner vendor because who wants to be all in with a micro cap tech company that could run into liquidity issues down the road?
I don't have the ambition to trade AUDC shares but if I did I would have been buying shares under $7.28.
I like french's thesis about sellers profiting on the move down knowing they could sell shares to the institutions. Institutional interest measured by the secondary was very good. The only people who lose in the deal are weak longs -- which is perfect for the Wall Street crowd which treats individual investors like so many sheep to be sheared.
I agree. Worst case valuations for AUDC are north of $8. Analysts picking up coverage should be a near term catalyst to at least double digit gains from $8. We're right at a 20% decline from the recent high here. It all adds up to shaking the share tree to me.
Something like that -- should be going up not down is what I was thinking... Doh!
Action today and yesterday feels like exhausting sellers at this level. All that is left to do is shake a few shares loose from individual investors then we can go higher?
I don't know about a buyout in 2-3 weeks but I do see a slight uptick in volume and shares closed below the 50MA which will probably shake out a few more shares as low as $7.60 or so then we probably run out of sellers and people realize the story hasn't changed and AUDC should be going down not up then a lot of dollars will be thrown at a lot of shares and shares will bounce higher...
I don't keep up with filing deadlines and publishing dates for institutional holders but I will take a look at new holders and increased holdings this time around. I think we're coming to the end of the decreasing volume consolidation phase of the surge and consolidate pattern which will run its course and shake some shares loose on a test of the 50MA at @$8.00 then we'll bounce higher again on a surge in volume. Depending when info is updated on institutional ownership that could be a catalyst to move shares higher. Analysts picking up coverage as weak shares are cleaned up could also be a catalyst to move shares higher. I don't see downside risk absent a competitor leapfrogging AudioCodes to usurp AudioCodes opportunities with Lync, the cloud, OTT, etc.
My .02 on a down day for AUDC on a good news day for SONS, which I still regard as not as good of a play as AUDC, boils down to there are lots of ways to shake the share tree. I think this is the same pattern repeating again -- surge ahead then consolidate on declining margin with the end of consolidation marked by Calcalist being so early they were wrong on a secondary until they were right or buyers simply pulling bids when it seemed most likely to #$%$ shareholders.
I think the latest from super fan Josh at SA -- a thorough statement of the bullish case for the secondary -- says the secondary wasn't a mistake. If push comes to shove I'd rather have more institutional ownership especially over weak hands that could be washed out this morning.
Longer term shares dilute longs but short term dilution is limited to the difference in the difference between net per share in cash and a sale price for the company if shares price at $X plus cash on hand?
I don't care for the timing of the secondary and DT announcement but who I do think the extra cash can be seen as AUDC managing for the 2-5 years out vs. looking for and needing a short term buyout. Whatever shares are worth in the next six months if AudioCodes is a stand alone company 2, 3, 4 and 5 years down the road then the upside is no longer limited to the mid $20s.
I think the most likely outcome is still a buyout -- now in the high teens to mid $20s with the extra cash.
The timing of the secondary looks more suspect now but any meaningful revision to revenue and EPS estimates sets shares on a clear path to $11 to $14.
I'm seeing the same pattern repeat again for the third time now since November as shares push higher on good volume then consolidate before the next surge higher. The only difference this time is extra volume -- both on the initial surge and now with the secondary. Shares may want trade sideways another week or so barring news as the 50MA works its way to $8 but the trend up seems to be well established. As filings come out we'll see if increased volume is computers churning shares or good old fashioned accumulation.
Amen and Hallelujah. The market is telling us the secondary is a non-event. Volume remains well above average the past couple of weeks. A lot of shares have changed hands all over the 20MA and before the secondary, most shares traded above the 5MA. Shares are up 20% YTD.
If new analysts need to see a bullish response to a 10% secondary to come in and raise estimates the secondary looks like a smart move again. Adding cash to fund expansion of operations to leverage new products puts the difference between what shares are worth a quarter from now and what shares are worth a year or even two from now on the table.
It is time to let Shabtai out of the penalty box.
Aren't the 3.5M shares in the 4.2M shares? If so we traded an average number of shares for the last couple weeks and the secondary couldn't even get shares back to the 20MA let alone the 30EMA. RSI is also still 52.97. The secondary could still pull shares down and a dumb use of capital will pull shares down -- and the buyout for parts is still probably low double digits. I absolutely do not have a problem with the market telling AudioCodes they priced shares .50 or $1 too low.
I've seen the details on the secondary and a days trading and I think it is bullish. I'm willing to give Shabtai the benefit of the doubt because a year ago we were looking at a worst case of $7 or so for parts and now we're conjecturing about $20+ per share. Who did that? Not us. 10% dilution with the over allotment and shares are still up @20% this year and well over the secondary price... Works for me.