An outperform from an analyst broker that sees .AudioCodes reiterating 18 to .20 EPS giudance as optimistic is as good as somebody screaming buy, buy, buy it is going to $100 with shares looking for a bottom to bounce off here...
Two numbers jump out looking at Thomson Reuters estimates at Schwab. First estimated revenues increase from $151.1M to $165.9M or 9.7% from 2014 to 2015 -- and EPS estimates increase from .19 to .29 or 52.6% at the same time. The second thing is more of a what if thing: what happens to EPS if revenues start increasing 15% or more per year compounded?
The comments about increased margin on the call yesterday folds in nicely here. If 2016 estimates come out at 15% more than 2015 how much do EPS estimates increase? What is a 2X to 4X price to sales multiple on $190.8M divided by shares outstanding?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A 20% discount to the secondary after a good Q2 call and affirmation of guidance for the full year is a good opportunity for shorts to cover. If the increase in short interest was buyers that didn't get as many shares as they wanted in the secondary so much the better because the book says roll your profits on the short into more shares to reduce your average cost basis.
So far as mood swings go for a micro cap tech stock 20% or even 25% off for a secondary is nothing to write home about unless it is to note the drop was only 20% to 25% and not 40% to 50%. A little more good news on the call or a modest bump in guidance would have had shorts covering at higher prices. The strong interest in the secondary should serve as a reminder to shorts that aren't gaming the secondary that there was strong interest in the shares at $8. The story has also continued to unfold positively since the secondary.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
IMO the value of a $440M bid from SONS would be as a catalyst for another player to outbid SONS and push the price to 3x to 4x sales plus cash. If AUDC and big shareholders are in a position to spit on an offer like that then were in the $20s in a year and if not we're out with a nice gain sooner rather than later?
Time to buy. Estimates give us a $8 valuation for growth rate times TTM earning the end of 2014 and a buyout at 2X that number is a discount to what ORCL paid for APKT. I added shares a few minutes ago. Strong buy for me back to the high $6s for implied 15% gain through year end and downside risk mitigated by the current share price, fundamentals and value of AudioCodes technology.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It it time to channel your inner Gretzky and focus on where the puck is going to be with AUDC. By next quarter any analyst worth his salt will be looking into 2016 to establish a growth rate to put a multiple on 2015 EPS estimates. Nothing yesterday indicates .20 this year or .28 next year in jeopardy which makes $8 by year end this year a conservative target with growth rate x TTM EPS. If higher margins and more services revenues push 2015 estimates up a couple of cents then the target is $10. If the market pays 1.5X growth rate time TTM and/or EPS estimates increase that is $12 to $15.
Downside protection is still: ("How much did ORCL payfor APKT?" + cash on hand) / (Its a micro cap with technology and services + AUDC products and services are used by how many major players?).
Welcome to the stupid cheap price point shares didn't figure to get to.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The downside risk is also limited here because of the growth of networking and services. 2X sales plus cash is how much?
Nonsense. Volume is already over average and if we double up volume from here open short interest could be cut in half. ialianex1 is right re; lack of sellers in my opinion. Figure also the short interest spiked around the secondary and shorting a secondary is a time honored way to increase your position and reduce your basis and it would be reasonable to expect short interest to come off quietly over the last week or two and next week or two.
Call was bullish enough with color on margins/services. Good opportunity for shorts to cover on a bullish consolidation of the move up from the mid $5s before shares resume the march back to $8 to $10. Unless we're looking for buyers below $6.75 shares could finish in the green today.
IMO it depends on the call.
There is room for a modest increase in revenues as average estimates for the year are a tick under Q1 and Q2 plus $38M and $39M for Q3 and Q4. If guidance increases it becomes a question of how much.
A modest increase in guidance makes shares look more undervalued with the growth in networking and SBCs. If there is a major win or significant upward revision to revenue or EPS guidance shares move higher. Neutral quidance scenarios say shares are priced right and still suggest a solid double digit share price gains through year end from current levels. A reduction in guidance -- AudioCodes not being able to run their business in spite of gains in the networking and SBC business -- should take shares down and put the company in play for a buyout at a premium to the secondary price.
A WAG on guidance and market response is we split the difference between neutral and guidance which might get us back to the 100EMA before shares start working their way back to $8 to $9 by the Q3 call.
The growth in networking and SBCs is all the reason any analyst who is paying attention needs to recognize value in AUDC shares at this level. When you strip away all the jargon and attitude an analysts job is to find a combination of value and growth or identify companies that have an advantage in a key space. AudioCodes presents a compelling opportunity in all three instances.
Non-GAAP is what the market is looking for on EPS and that is a miss of .01 vs. estimates of .05 but .01 better than last years .03.
I just noticed the call starts at 05:00 California time tomorrow. I've listened to a fair number of calls over the years and my recollection is they have all started at 06:00 my time in California. Any thoughts on this?
The market clearly hasn't made up its mind what bouncing quickly from $6.88 to $7.10 then giving back two thirds of the move. I think it all adds up to another step forward.
We'll see soon enough who is right re; price and volume today. It is interesting that we're seeing comments that could pass as spreading fud -- fear, uncertainty and deceit -- as shares are coming up to a critical support and behaving quite well since bottoming on the secondary.
There are no guarantees the chart and revenue/EPS and guidance/estimates come together on the call tomorrow but if it happens we're back at $9 looking for $11 in a hurry.
Volume is a bit better at the open this morning and there are a lot of levels to watch on the pullback... 200MA is $6.98, 30EMA is $6.93 and 100EMA is $6.85. I placed my bet for the low of the day between the 30EMA and 100EMA. If shares test the 30EMA or 100EMA and trade higher into the close that will be a strong statement re; expectations for earnings.
If you look at a one year chart at a well know site for stock charts that shows you money flow, relative strength, money flow, accumulation and distribution, moving averages, etc. it isn't hard to imagine shares catapulting higher on a good quarter and/or improved guidance and/or analysts upping numbers.
If you go back another month you see shares jumping almost 20% in three the space of four trading days around the call the end of July last year -- and you see shares running another 35% the next month. 20% more than $7 is $8.40. 35% more than $8.40 is $11.34.
The only issue I see as someone without mad chart skills is the 200MA will flatten out and dip as the 50MA continues the strong move up. I'm not sure how golden a golden cross is with a flat or declining 200MA -- but the 30EMA and 100EMA are trending up which to me trumps the negative connotation of the soft 200MA.
If you look carefully you don't see shares getting stupid cheap or pulling back as far as they might since July 10th when shares dipped below the 30EMA and 100EMA before rebounding and finishing higher. That also looks like somebody not wanting to let shares fall to the point more buyers want the shares. That could be shorts covering ahead of investors adding shares? NASDAQ has short interest down to 657,874 as of 7/15 so the shorts are starting to cover.
This is all circumstantial until the numbers come out but everything I'm looking at on the chart is showing strength except for the lack of volume. A move to $11 in @30 trading days if shares were to do what they did this time last year would be a strong incentive to not sell shares here and not let the share price drift down to 50 RSI since July 10th let alone 40 or sub 30.
If there is a red flag in any of this I'm not seeing it.
Best case there is conviction on the buy side but no shares available for sale below the secondary price or 52 week high because the story has improved markedly?
My .02 is if anybody knew anything good or bad there would be much more volume higher or more volume lower. The action the last couple of weeks seems more like cautious optimism but certainly not enough to stampede shorts (figuring volume hasn't been enough to cover all the short interest the last month or so).
Holding not trading. If we get into the mid $7s I'm adding/averaging down. I've been early buying and selling trading shares in NM and still done alright here. When I retire I'll put the time into figuring out options but I can't get my head around options at this point.